Giving up on $NIOI read countless investors tell me how $NIO is a MUST have stock to have in my portfolio in 2022, however I'm not seeing it anymore. Seems to me the company is in shambles, very few sales, supply chain issues, and this new lock down issue they're facing. I sold this morning, I bought at 21.8, and sold at opening price today, taking in a loss of about 11.74%. I never believe in selling when red, and truly believe in long-term hold profit, however we're at a time of a very near recession, any due diligence must be x10, since it can come at anytime. I think its important we use this platform to also share our losses, since I'd like to share notes with people in a similar situation.
NIO is nothing special, and I knew that from the beginning, I've seen better financials and much better stock price performance. However, long term wise, and maybe after the upcoming recession, or even before NIO will soar, when their orders are up and they fix their supply chain issues, until then I'll count my losses, and avoid NIO till I'm convinced their doing something new. NYSE:NIO
NIO
$NIO Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets$NIO Key Levels, Analysis, & Targets
I like NIO. I find it easy to trade, though I haven’t traded it in a few months because the down trend was too strong… and even though I do think that, ultimately it will go lower I think I’m in for a quick swing…
Swing setup
1 at 19.61
1 at 13.72
2 at 10.63
(Then multiply by your multiplier (x5, x10, x100, x1000, etc to find your position size)
If all 3 hit I’d be looking for a 55% swing
And dang… I would love to load up in that gap around 9.50-10.50
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I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
Nio Finally Bullish? NIO
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 23.79 (stop at 21.92)
We look for gains to be extended today. Price action has broken from the previous formation. The reaction higher is positive and highlights a clear reversal. Short term oscillators have turned positive.
Our profit targets will be 28.11 and 32.51
Resistance: 28.00 / 34.00 / 45.00
Support: 23.00 / 20.00 / 13.00
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Fundamentals on XPEV over NIOIt was apparently last year but having such little history, in a nascent market, the data points couldn't be trusted, yet. However I took a large position in Xpev over NIO for a few reasons.
1) They are not competitors, from a price point perspective. Xpev makes a car by my estimate 90% as good as NIOs and 80% as good as Tesla, but they sell for 50-60% of the cost. Nio is a direct competitor of Tesla. Being a start-up funding/attrition is key and fighting Tesla is capital intensive.
2) Speaking of, Xpev is copying more than innovating, though slilght innovations on the things they copy exist. It's cheaper and faster to copy than it is to innovate. NIO made a bold move adopting a battery swap format. It could work in time but that's the problem, in time. It's a capital intensive and geographically disadvantaged strategy to build swap stations, though it's innovative and clever to offer cars at sale prices minus the battery, and leasing the battery to the customer. I like that recurring revenue and lower entry point potential, but again it's a battle of attrition and NIOs strategy is so capital intensive that even it's short term prospects are murky. Xpev is simple. Simple i like.
3) As you can see in the chart this is playing out on the balance sheet and revenue. Xpev from a unit sales perspective has been catching up to NIO, I attribute much of that to their price point and marketing. But also from a balance sheet perspective they are burning less cash so while margins are lower per unit sold, their capex is also lower compared to NIO to balance that out in favor of XPEV.
4) Bonus reason, XPEV is focused. Mainly China/Asia customer base with no plans to expand to NA. Currently testing select parts of Europe. Again, simple is good. Transport logistics, local regulations, taxes/tariffs all create levels of complexity, complexity increases cost an lowers margins. Simple is good.
I see XPEV out performing NIO throughout 2022. Although I do believe should the overall EV market expand fast enough, NIO will do just fine and a rising tide will certainly float their boat as well.
NIO bullish short term trendWeekly Trend
$NIO is looking bullish on the short term trend awaiting for the downtrend breakout. Looking for a rebound in a short term. Approx 2 weeks
Price action showing some divergence, with the PT of 27.50 - approx till March 24th-ish
Fundamentally, HK listing shows very strong fundamentals without any dilution on the listing.
overall trend, $NIO is still within the falling wedge trend, which is major bearish on the weekly. Long term, looking at price range entry at E1 & E2
Long Term holding Duration approx 1-2 years.
Earnings date:
March 24th
ir.nio.com
just an idea, trade safe and stick with your plan :)
Good luck to all NIO holders. Diamond Hands
NIO Inc (NYSE: $NIO) Looks Ready To Rocket! 🚀NIO Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, and sells smart electric vehicles in China. The company offers five, six, and seven-seater electric SUVs, as well as smart electric sedans. It is also involved in the provision of energy and service packages to its users; marketing, design, and technology development activities; manufacture of e-powertrains, battery packs, and components; and sales and after sales management activities. In addition, the company offers power solutions, including Power Home, a home charging solution; Power Swap, a battery swapping service; Public Charger, a public fast charging solution; Power Mobile, a mobile charging service through charging vans; Power Map, an application that provides access to a network of public chargers and their real-time information; and One Click for Power valet service, where it offers vehicle pick up, charging, and return services. Further, it provides repair, maintenance, and bodywork services through its NIO service centers and authorized third-party service centers; statutory and third-party liability insurance, and vehicle damage insurance through third-party insurers; courtesy car services; and roadside assistance, as well as data packages; and auto financing services. Additionally, the company offers NIO Certified, a used vehicle inspection, evaluation, acquisition, and sales service. NIO Inc. has a strategic collaboration with Mobileye N.V. for the development of automated and autonomous vehicles for consumer markets. The company was formerly known as NextEV Inc. and changed its name to NIO Inc. in July 2017. NIO Inc. was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
BIDU - Look out Below.. Big Bearish Move DownToday we look at BIDU
We see a Huge Bearish Descending Triangle in which we have been in for the last 280 days or so.
We can observe this as illustrated with the lower highs while we are posting the same level lows
To add to the bearish sentiment we also formed a Bearish "Bear Flag" within the same price structure.
We just broke down from the bear flag and closed below.
Looking at price action and volume we find data to support a bigger move lower as well.
We are taking longer time buying then we are selling AND the price action bars buying are far weaker than those selling. Volume supports and agrees as well.
Going into Monday we are looking for some small corrections to start the week then ADD to our PUT OPTIONS as the market continues to sell off.
First Long Term Target: $95
Ideal Re-Entry: 153-157
Zoom out the Zoom..! The past 3 yearsI think whatever you need to know about a Formation of bubbles and their burst you can see in the ZM chart:
An 805% move in 18 months followed by an 84% decline in the next 17 months:
During that 84% decline, you see a 36% and 48% positive surge, but the aftermath remained the same..!
Even a significant change in the fundamental did not help:
But ZM was not alone, other examples are:
NIO: +5500% followed by -80%
DOCU:
And the mother of All bubbles:
ARKK:
and the Final point:
Gauging Market Changes
The key determinant of whether the market is bull or bear is not just the market's knee-jerk reaction to a particular event, but how it's performing over the long term. Small movements only represent a short-term trend or a market correction. Whether or not there is going to be a bull market or a bear market can only be determined over a longer time period.
However, not all long movements in the market can be characterized as bull or bear. Sometimes a market may go through a period of stagnation as it tries to find direction. In this case, a series of upward and downward movements would actually cancel-out gains and losses resulting in a flat market trend.(Investopedia)
Conclusion:
You can be in the Bearish market yet see the most Exotic Bullish rallies..!
Best,
Dr. Moshkelgosha M.D
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*I have open positions in SARK(74.36), SOXS(40), TZA(30.60)
Will chaos in nickel prices disrupt the EV boom?The nickel market has been in disarray in recent weeks as prices soared to unprecedented levels before going on a freefall amid supply concerns and an unexpected short-squeeze by one of the world’s largest steelmakers.
Nickel is one of the most common metal elements in the world used to make stainless steel, batteries, coins, and other metal applications.
How the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove nickel prices higher
Russia is one of the world’s largest producers of nickel, supplying about 20% of class 1 nickel that is mainly used in the production of stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries. Data from market research firm Statista showed that Russia was the world’s leading exporter of nickel and nickel products in 2020, shipping about $3.02 billion worth of the commodity.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine sparked fears of a nickel supply crunch as Russia has been hit with a number of economic sanctions and as importers of other Russian commodities like oil avoid being impacted by sanctions.
The short-squeeze that sent prices skyrocketing
In addition to the supply concerns induced by the ongoing Ukraine conflict, a short-squeeze involving Tsingshan Holding Group, touted as the largest nickel producer in the world, was also behind soaring nickel prices.
The Chinese company took a nickel short position of 200,000 tons of nickel in the London Metal Exchange (LME) and as the price of nickel surged in the early days of the Ukraine crisis, the company’s short position was left in disarray, setting it up for a paper loss of about $8 billion.
Tsingshan recently inked a deal with banks to avoid further margin calls, buying it time to cut its nickel position as markets stabilize.
LME forced to halt trading
The short-squeeze and supply concerns sent nickel prices skyrocketing by more than 50% to $100,000 per tonne on March 8, significantly up from about $25,000 per tonne a week earlier.
The surge prompted the LME to suspend nickel trading and impose price limits to maintain stability.
Since the trade resumption, prices have been on a freefall over low trading volumes and concerns about the status of Tsingshan’s short position. The benchmark three-month nickel on the LME fell 2.2% on Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. GMT to $32,000 per tonne.
What the volatility in nickel prices could mean for EV makers
Higher nickel prices could drive up the costs of electric vehicles even higher as nickel is one of the key materials used to produce EV batteries. Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas had recently warned that EVs in the US could be $1,000 more expensive as nickel prices soar.
This could hurt electric carmakers’ profit margins and impede the growth of the burgeoning EV market at a time when markets like China, Europe, and the US transition to new-energy vehicles.
The shortage in nickel and skyrocketing prices of the metal have forced some EV makers like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to look for other battery materials. In late February, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the Silicon Valley-based company’s biggest concern for scaling lithium-ion cell production is nickel.
“That’s why we are shifting standard range cars to an iron cathode,” Musk said. Tesla recently hiked the prices of its Model 3 and Model Y cars in the US and China, the world’s biggest car market, due to high raw material prices.
Its rivals in China including XPeng (NYSE:XPEV), Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) and BYD (HKG:1211) also announced price hikes to counter rising raw material costs. However, NIO (NYSE:NIO), another local player, last week said it has no plans to raise prices at the moment after its sales have lagged behind its rivals XPeng and Li Auto for five straight months.
NIO Breakout Alert $the moment we clear our ascending line, we will see a bearish trend reversal , and have a massive test around the 29$, before we continue the trend up, before that we should hold above our box, and never go below to confirm the bullish momentum and breaking our ascending line, and doing higher lows, by bouncing above our support box.
discount for the best trading chart that I personally use
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