NIO - A Hidden Opportunity? NIO - NYSE:NIO
I have a feeling this will be an unpopular recommendation but the chart is telling there is an opportunity at hand to take a low risk trade.
▫️ NIO is 90% down from $66 ATH
▫️ MAX China FUD (contrarian senses tingling)
▫️ TA allows risk adjusted entry
The Chart
✅ RSI Bullish Divergence
⌛️ Potential green weekly reversal candle now
⌛️ Pending breakout from OBV pennant (coiling)
⌛️ Break above 200 Day (pending)
The chart has a similar pattern to the 2019-2021. Confirmation of the upward trend in 2019 was a break above the 200 day SMA and finding support on it (green circle), this also coincided with a break out of the coiling OBV in 2019 (green circle). These two signals are very useful as at present we are coiling within the OBV in similar fashion. A break out above the OBV resistance line in 2024 could infer the beginning of an upward move 👀
There may be a positive divergence in play here also which helps the bullish argument.
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
If the OBV breaks to the downside losing the underside diagonal support, we exit the trade. We could watch for a loss of the lower RSI resistance line also but will likely occur in sync.
THE IDEAL ENTRY
Ultimately the best entry would once price finds support on the 200 day SMA. At present that's a close above c.$8.20. Worth noting that $8.20 is just above the Point of Control - the most traded price level in volume terms.
WHY ENTER NOW?
An initial small position can be placed now as we have had a 90% decline from ATH (a 90% discount for a long term investment isn't bad). We also have a positive RSI divergence and we have the OBV and RSI lower support levels to watch to exit to protect ourselves from the downside.
In the event we move higher, break out of OBV coil ,we can then add to the position, and if we break above the 200 MA and find support on it, we can add again. This allows for a low risk initial entry and as the trade moves in our favor we can add to the position as the conviction builds. We will either be quickly stopped out and lose very little or get in early entry with a 90% discount and get to play this long term investment position nicely.
Position size is key here folks, that first position is an amount your don't really care about as we do not have any confirmation of a trend change yet. This is early doors.
PUKA
NIO
LI AUTO TP 35 BEFORE EARNINGS Li Auto, a China-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has been receiving positive attention from investors and analysts. Here are some reasons why:
Ambitious Goals: Li Auto’s management has set an ambitious vehicle-delivery goal1. They aim to sell at least 400,000 units of the Li L7, Li L8, and Li L9 in 20241, which would exceed their total of 376,030 vehicles sold in 20231.
Innovative Ideas: Li Auto is trying out an interesting idea similar to what Nio is doing1. This could be referring to Nio’s flagship showroom, known as Nio House, which is a unique vehicle showroom that resembles a home1.
Strong Partnerships: Li Auto has a partnership with Nvidia, where Nvidia’s Drive Thor autonomous driving chip will power Li Auto’s ET9 electric sedan1.
New Launches: Li Auto is gearing up to launch its flagship multi-purpose vehicle, the Li MEGA, on March 11.
Positive Analyst Recommendations: Li Auto Inc. Sponsored ADR currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.10, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations made by five brokerage firms
Nio: Can This Fallen Angel Get Its Wings Back? Lets find out Today, we're taking a deep dive into Nio, given how low its price has fallen. By examining key valuation metrics like the P/S ratio, which is currently at its lowest ever point, we can ask: Could Nio be poised for a strong comeback? Let's put this to the test using my groundbreaking Nio chart analysis method, EW 2.0.
Curious about my EW 2.0 method? Catch my latest trade ideas below – you might see how it unlocks hidden patterns in NYSE:BABA & CRYPTOCAP:ETH charts.
NYSE:BABA :
BINANCE:ETHUSDT :
China’s Auto Exports Surge 58% to Record High in 2023 The development follows another milestone for Chinese auto exports after they hit more than 3 million vehicles in 2022 and over 2 million in 2021, the report said.
The latest record was driven by a surge in exports of new energy vehicles, which climbed 77.6% in 2023 to more than 1.2 million units, according to the report.
Overall auto sales in China climbed 12% year over year to 30.1 million units, while output rose 11.6% to 30.2 million units, Xinhua added.
Nio:
- Trading at 35% below our estimate of its fair value
- Revenue is forecast to grow 22.58% per year
The Unraveling Tale of NIO Amidst the EV Industry Challenges
In the ever-evolving landscape of the electric vehicle (EV) industry, one player that has found itself caught in the whirlwind of challenges is NIO Inc. (NYSE: NYSE:NIO ). The once high-flying stock has witnessed a staggering 90% decline from its peak in 2021, raising concerns about the company's resilience in the face of intensifying competition and industry saturation.
The EV Industry Blues:
NYSE:NIO 's struggles are not isolated but are symptomatic of the broader challenges plaguing the EV sector. Even Tesla, often regarded as the gold standard, has faced a 28% drop from its 2023 high, yielding ground to competitors like BYD. The sector's smaller players, such as Mullen Automotive, Canoo, and Fisker, are grappling with cash burn, further contributing to the overall industry turmoil.
Market Saturation and Global Competition:
NYSE:NIO 's unique focus on the Chinese market, once considered a strategic advantage, has become a double-edged sword. China, flooded with electric vehicle brands like Xpeng, Li Auto, BYD, and Tesla, has become a battleground where companies vie for market share. Additionally, NIO faces fierce competition in Europe, with concerns arising from the EU's review of China's EV subsidies. The fear is that Chinese companies, including NYSE:NIO , enjoy subsidies, making their products more affordable than those produced within Europe.
Financial Lifeline and Global Expansion:
Despite the challenging landscape, NYSE:NIO has made strategic moves to secure its financial future. A recent $2.2 billion deal with CYVN from Abu Dhabi provides NYSE:NIO with a financial lifeline, tapping into a region experiencing exponential growth driven by tourism, finance, and energy sectors. This influx of funds positions NYSE:NIO well for the future and reduces immediate concerns about its financial stability.
Deliveries Surge Amidst Margin Pressures:
While NYSE:NIO managed to boost its deliveries, reaching 160,038 vehicles in 2023, a 30.7% YoY increase, the company grapples with thinning margins. The gross margin dipped to 8% in Q3 2023, down from 13.3% the previous year. NYSE:NIO attributed this decline to the industry-wide trend of slashing prices to remain competitive. The delicate balance between increasing market share and preserving profit margins remains a pivotal challenge for the company.
Technical Downturn and Bearish Outlook:
Technically, NYSE:NIO 's stock price has experienced a persistent downward trend, breaching key support levels and remaining below crucial moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropping below 50 further underscores the bearish sentiment.
Conclusion:
NYSE:NIO 's journey in the coming months will undoubtedly be a test of its adaptability and strategic prowess. As the EV industry undergoes a seismic shift, NYSE:NIO 's ability to navigate these challenges, secure global partnerships, and maintain a delicate balance between growth and profitability will determine whether it can rise from the current slump and redefine its position in the competitive electric vehicle landscape.
$NIO - MAJOR BEARISH CHANNEL $4.70 1st TargetA Major Downward Channel is still at play with ta 1st major Gap area that needs to be filled at around $4.70. If it breaks, then there is another gap below that with multiple support areas that could break. Final support at at the $1.19 area. Short at each break for maximize profit
NIO - Massive long at what could be the absolute bottom. I posted this a week ago but not much has changed. It was taken down by moderators because I mentioned something that went against house rules. Nonetheless:
ORIGINAL POST:
Nio has double bottomed on the weekly at local level with bullish divergence on the MaCD. It is also showing a clear shift in momentum on the 4H and Daily timeframes. We took this position a few days ago, and have already taken very small profits at the first tp level. I was unable to post here as my account has been hacked for the past 3 weeks and I have only just gotten it back, hence the lack of updates overall. Having said that the community took this trade.
I am posting this now as I believe that if we get above 8.36 then one could strategise a trade on a backtest of that level, so you guys could enter there if you haven't already.
The weekly is posted below
NIO: Important reaction at support level! But be careful - D & WNIO shares reached our first target of $9.22, set in our last public study, the link to which is below this analysis, as always.
We now see a correction down to the 21 EMA, which is to be expected, given that it has just hit a target. In addition, we see a reaction in the price, which could be a bottoming signal if confirmed. Such a reaction makes sense, since the medium-term trend on the daily chart is bullish, and the reasons are simple: 1) The price has been making HH/HL since its last bottom on December 12; 2) The price is above the 21 EMA, which is rising.
I said in my last analysis that swing trades with a focus on the medium term are technically plausible, and that's still true, but remember that all caution is needed, as the weekly chart is still in a downtrend, and this week's candlestick is a reminder of this.
If the price closes below the average on the weekly chart, we could see another top signal, suggesting further bearish continuation for NIO shares. In any case, I see $7 as the main support point, both in the long and medium term.
We see that NIO is trading around a critical point, near mid-term support levels and long-term resistance levels. Whichh one will prevail? It is too soon to tell, we need to see a clear breakout to confirm any thesis. I’ll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analysis, and support this idea, if it helped you.
All the best,
Nathan.
$NIO potential double bottom in value areaNIO high time frames look to be putting in a double bottom at the .886 fib node, considered to be a deep value area.
Monthly bullish engulfing candle if it closes around here on Friday.
Invalidation could be multiple weekly candle closures below $8.38, low from Oct ‘22, would let this run potentially to $20 region if it really gets going.
NIO 9.50 THEN 10 THEN 11 LONG Trading Idea for NIO Inc. (NIO):
Long Position:
Key Points:
Electric Vehicle (EV) Growth: NIO is a key player in the electric vehicle market, and the global shift towards electric transportation provides a favorable backdrop for the company. Growing awareness of sustainability and government incentives can drive increased demand for NIO's electric vehicles.
Market Expansion: NIO's expansion beyond the Chinese market and its efforts to enter international markets, particularly in Europe, could open up new revenue streams. Positive developments in international expansion plans may boost investor confidence.
Innovative Technology: NIO's focus on innovation, including battery technology and autonomous driving features, positions the company competitively in the EV space. Positive advancements in technology may attract investors seeking exposure to cutting-edge developments.
Battery-as-a-Service (BaaS) Model: NIO's unique Battery-as-a-Service model, allowing customers to purchase electric vehicles without the battery, could appeal to cost-conscious consumers and potentially expand NIO's market share.
NIO: Breaking Through Important Resistance Levels - but beware!We see a strong bullish reaction in NIO's shares, which have been rising steadily since last week, when they approached their bottom at $7.
Around $7, we see a region of multiple support, present since June, but which has suffered several attempts to be breached during November and December, without success.
Now, the price has made a strong enough reaction to break through some important medium-term resistance points, such as the 21 EMA, and more recently, the previous top at $8.51.
In doing so, NIO's shares are sending a clear message that the medium-term trend is now upwards, as it is operating above various supports, and breaking through previous resistances.
In theory, the next resistances are NIO's next targets, such as $9.22, or even the gap open at $10.22. Remember, gaps act as magnets when the price reverses a trend.
Although this is a reading for the medium term, it's important to point out that NIO shares still face some problems in the long term, as seen in the weekly chart below:
Clearly, the area around $7 is the most important support here too, but since November 2021, the price has been in a persistent downtrend. We don't see rising tops and bottoms, and the 21 EMA could still be a resistance point, although the price is above it this week.
So, while buying with a focus on the medium term is technically plausible, caution is advised as the weekly chart is still in a downtrend.
I'll keep you updated on this, so remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses, and if you liked the post, remember to support the idea.
All the best,
Nathan.
China's Nio to Get $2.2 Bln Investment From Abu Dhabi's CYVNKey Takeaway
NYSE:NIO published a press release announcing that it was on track to receive a new round of investment funding from CYVN Holdings -- an Abu Dhabi-based holding company. Per the agreement, CYVN will invest $2.2 billion in NYSE:NIO and receive 294 million shares of stock at a price of $7.50 per share.
Technical Analysis
NYSE:NIO has broken through the ceiling of a falling trend channel in the medium long term. This indicates a slower falling rate initially, or the start of a more horizontal development.
NYSE:NIO has broken a resistance level in the short term and given a positive signal for the short-term trading range.
NIO - A 10% Pre-Market Burst (Allowing for a structural trade)NIO
✅10%+ move indicated in pre-markets
✅This will put NIO above the PoC(Point of Control)
✅ With the RSI Bullish Divergence this presents and opportunity to enter a trade above PoC and to place a stop under it with an almost 8:1 Reward to Risk.
I have a long term medium sized position in NYSE:NIO so i have been watching the chart for opportunities.
⚠️Obviously we are below the 200 day SMA and it is still sloping downwards so this is a major concern and thus the stop loss is critical and should be a hard stop if this is a short term trade.
For long term position folk, we will watch and wait as our long term positions are in place and just got a 10% boost today. lets see how price reacts to the 200 day SMA once we meet it.
PUKA
Potential future of SOLANA. Silver and NIO. Agree?It's just an interesting fractal that I think is plausible. Personally, I don't hold WHITEBIT:SOLUSDT and don't expect ATH to be updated in the new cycle.
Technically, the project is unstable and looks more like a beautiful marketing. For example, WHITEBIT:EOSUSDT has much more advantages technically and is safer as an investment.
TVC:SILVER and NYSE:NIO NIO's share are very similar. NIO is also a very beautiful marketing that has a lot of problems.
Credit Suisse AG Acquires 879,832 Shares of Nio Inc - (NYSE:NIO)Credit Suisse AG boosted its holdings in shares of Nio Inc - (NYSE:NIO) by 19.1% in the 2nd quarter, according to the company in its most recent 13F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission. The firm owned 5,497,075 shares of the company's stock after purchasing an additional 879,832 shares during the quarter. Credit Suisse AG owned about 0.33% of NIO worth $53,267,000 at the end of the most recent quarter.
Several other hedge funds have also recently added to or reduced their stakes in the business. BlackRock Inc. boosted its stake in NIO by 7.8% during the 2nd quarter. BlackRock Inc. now owns 66,794,714 shares of the company's stock valued at $647,241,000 after purchasing an additional 4,835,232 shares during the period. Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its stake in NIO by 2.2% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 51,370,117 shares of the company's stock valued at $810,108,000 after purchasing an additional 1,113,194 shares during the period. Norges Bank bought a new stake in NIO during the 4th quarter valued at approximately $155,344,000.
Legal & General Group Plc raised its holdings in NIO by 0.8% in the 4th quarter. Legal & General Group Plc now owns 11,086,052 shares of the company's stock valued at $108,089,000 after acquiring an additional 92,662 shares in the last quarter. Finally, First Trust Advisors LP raised its holdings in NIO by 20.8% in the 1st quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 8,128,289 shares of the company's stock valued at $171,100,000 after acquiring an additional 1,399,601 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors own 42.32% of the company's stock.
NIO STOCK BULLISHNIO stock is forming a bullish divergence on the weekly & daily RSI chart. This stock has been absolutely hammered the last couple years due to inconsistent supply issues as well as getting out of unprofitably that most new companies struggle with. However I do believe with projected earnings being over 2B the company should be getting over its hardest time & hopefully moving upward again soon. This stock has an average price target of 12, and while I believe that is quite low - it’s still a 70% INCREASE FROM CURRENT LEVELS. I do think it will run to 21-22 area for a 200% RETURN.
NIO If you haven`t sold NIO at this crazy valuation:
or after the BMW comparision:
or reentered before the breakout:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 7usd strike price at the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-12-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.47.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.