PSNY: First buy signal. With Supertrend Indicator1. First buy signal with supertrend indicator
2. Gap to fill around $3.00 to $3.12 (Thanks to Barclays downgrade :S )
3. Second gap to fill (Wall Street dropped the stock after last earnings/results)
Before buying a few hundred or thousand shares, I'll wait for a consolidation of about 5-10 days, and especially for the EMA 9/20 to cross on the daily chart. Too many times we've been caught buying too early or not waiting long enough.
And if, by any chance, Wall Street decides to push the price up by +50%, I'm already on the train with thousands and thousands of shares... lol 🚀💰
NIO
NIO BIG MOVE SOON!Shares of Nio (NIO -2.11%) slumped this week and were trading 17% lower through 11 a.m. ET Friday, according to data provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence. Despite a positive opening on the last trading day of the week, Nio stock has now lost more than 40% value since Aug. 1, thanks to this week's extended weakness.
$NIO - $4.60 Price Target with cracked flag, WEEKLY Death Cross I have been posting ever since the weekly flag has been setting up, the stock has finally cracked below the flag. If you have shorted on the crack, kudos to you. Potential downside is to $4.60. Remember the length of the flag pole equals to the potential measured downside which normally equates to about same length of the original bearish flag pole. We also see a bearish death cross on the weekly MACD and the squeeze mod is also curling over in a bearish downturn.
$NIO - $4.60 price target on Weekly Bear FLAGI posted on last two charts saying that there looks to be a bear flag setting up. The flag is now setting up nicely on the Weekly Chart and is rock solid intact. The longer it solidifies the flag, the more likely it plays out. Watch for a imminent break, if cracked flag, measured move to the downside is around $4.60 which is also around a past support area.
NIO BUYHi, based on my analysis of NEO stock, there is a good buying opportunity. The stock appears to be in a positive state. The stock returned to a very strong area of strong support at level 10. In which a green candle with a tail was formed, indicating a strong entry of buyers, as well as a retest of the downtrend. The presence of the 200 moving average, which in turn constitutes another support. Good luck everyone
NIO - Why Are You Long On Another Shanghai Disaster?So NIO makes electric cars and is a company from Mainland China, which means that by default it's a Chinese Communist Party state-run enterprise because of the realities of Chinese law and living under the CCP's jurisdiction.
Earnings are tomorrow morning and IV on options are juiced to 150% at the money expiring September 1 and 75% expiring January '24.
It might be pretty easy for this company to print a beat considering estimates are only $1.2~ billion compared to the $1.7, $2.5, $1.8, and $1.5 billion in the prior segments.
But as we've seen with earnings on stuff like AMD
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits Breed
Target
Target - Why Is Everyone Desperate To Long Disasters?
Snowflake
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?
and Disney
Disney - Is Your Compass Upside Down?
That a short lived earnings-linked climax has been the optimal moment to enter short and ride the move towards the bottoms.
The problem with companies rooted in Shanghai is that Shanghai is the toad's den, the headquarters of the faction of former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, and is solely responsible for the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting campaign against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners.
But even if the company were rooted in Shenzhen, Beijing, or Guangzhou, the problem would be that any company that relies on Mainland Chinese demand to fuel sales, including companies as big as Apple, are in big trouble.
The reason is simple. If you look at Our World In Data and examine how many people died from Coronavirus Disease 2019, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping claims that 121,563 people have died since the pandemic began.
The United States with less than 1/4th the population has reported over 1.2 million deaths by comparison.
And on top of that, everyone knows how the CCP covered up and lied to the world about the 2003 SARS pandemic.
So let's say for a minute, considering China's population of 1.4 billion compared to America's 355 million people, and that China is the epicentre of the pandemic, that as few as 10 million people actually died.
Now, consider the number of people counting as eligible buyers who have died in China is even higher than this number because of the huge amount of flooding, natural, and manmade disasters that have occurred over the same period of time.
Let's be generous and say that only 15 million people have died.
How does that impact the sales of companies like NIO, Tesla, Apple, and everyone else who has become reliant on the Chinese market?
Perhaps it isn't enough to cause a 2008-style bubble deflation yet, but we're certainly seeing the impact on the balance sheets, aren't we?
And yet people are telling you to get long on NIO.
Technically speaking, the monthly bars show us that since the October dump, every candle, no matter how big the retrace has been, has simply respected the gap created by the dump.
And this is significant because that dump was an astonishing 63 percent in two months.
And at today's prices of $11 this company is still claimed to be worth $15 billion, even while Evergrande has become a penny stock, the Yuan is in huge trouble, and the entire Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse.
Something I have enlightened to in recent times is that reversal patterns are not reversal patterns unless the market has traded to its true bottom.
This was the problem everyone who was trying to long Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all the way down kept running into.
If you buy too early then you have to sit there in drawdown waiting for 25% miracle candles just to break even for a single day.
And so you always have to ask yourself if the market has traded to its true bottom before you decide to donate your retirement funds to the Party longing a retrace.
On the weekly, the breakout to $16 would be bullish, if $7.5 were the bottom
But the problem is that the most meaningful gap on weekly bars was never retraced to after it broke up and it ran away towards $60, and that gap starts at $5.59, almost 50% away from where we traded today.
So is NIO a long? Social media wants you to get long because every dumpster pattern that looks like a disaster is a long, for some reason.
But NIO is not likely to be a long, no matter how nice of a car and how much of a Tesla killer they may arguably make.
But with a $1.2 billion earnings estimate, that's pretty beatable, and so we may see a real retrace tomorrow, however short lived, that could see smart call buyers who exit early or immediately bagging a nice profit.
For everyone else, perhaps it really is worth buying puts at $14 expiring in March of 2024 and closing them off at $5.5
Because NIO is a Shanghai dumpster fire, this thing can go down and down and down and down in accordance with the Hang Seng Tech even if the Nasdaq and the SPX rallies in Q4.
In the meantime, perhaps September will be a bit of an early autumn for the markets, and perhaps for the world-at-large.
Be careful. Shanghai is the "Babylon" spoke of in The Book of Revelations.
Babylon is a city, not a person.
And everyone who put roots there is dirty, perhaps including Tesla and Elon Musk, the man who wants to turn Twitter into the CCP's social credit keystones Wechat/TikTok.
Copper - Did Social Media Tell You To Long The CCP Again?They call copper "Doctor Copper" because it's said to forecast the overall world economic conditions on account of being tightly wed to manufacturing.
Well, what people are really yammering about with that over the last 20 years is whether or not the Chinese Communist Party is healthy, and the world by proxy being healthy because it tied itself to the most heinous regime in history, the one responsible for the 24-year persecution of Falun Gong by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the accompanying organ harvesting and genocide.
Unfortunately for all the blind bulls, the early 2021-2022 price action was a pretty good indication of a top, and that top is really confirmed by the fact that since October of '22, this bounce has been pretty weak, and starting this month, with all the drama surrounding the slow collapse of the Chinese economy, took out the previous two months' lows.
Monthly shows you that August price action took both the July and June lows.
Like, that's not the kind of "signal" you want to see to get long for a new all time high.
When something is retracing to take out major highs, you want to see lows rarely violated with something of a freight train towards the old highs.
Weekly bars show us something of a subtle pattern where it looks like it's just taken some lows and is consolidating and continually flirting with going back up.
But in reality the market makers are, most likely, just selling more under the previous $4.00 area.
And if that's really true, it means another gap down is imminent, especially after an entire quarter of ranging.
If you ask me, the first area that you can look for a long that is more than a scalp on copper is under $2.8, which is a critical pivot from September.
And a more likely target in the next 12 months is the $2.00 mark, which was barely swept out in the COVID drama.
The reality is, my friends, the Chinese Communist Party is going to fall overnight in our lifetimes. Not five or ten years from now. But very shortly, and everything is going to change.
Whether that is caused by Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP to protect himself and China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order as it uses Taiwan as a soft proxy war, or because the whole world collapses under the results of the persecution of Falun Dafa, since everyone's been going to Shanghai to worship the toads and the Devil Red to get financial benefits.
This is the danger.
The danger is imminent.
But copper trades painfully slowly, so if you want to do this you have to have long duration, ignore the noise, and be willing to suffer some drawdown.
China under the CCP is never going to recover. Things are never going to be okay ever again.
Things will be okay once mankind returns to tradition.
But there won't be an international stock market like this anymore that day.
NIO - are the fundamentals good enough?Analysts have adjusted earnings estimates and thus, an earnings beat does not always translate to good prospects for some of the businesses:
Earnings Estimate Management
From the earnings forecast by Investing above, we can note the following:
The coming EPS forecast (for the period ending 06/2023) is worse than the previous period ending 03/2023.
In fact, the EPS forecast is expected to be the worst at record -2.96 since 06/2022.
For the revenue forecast, it is expected to be lower than the previous quarter. It stands at 9.16B compared to the forecast of 11.93B from the previous quarter ending 03/2023.
This is in fact the lowest revenue forecast since 06/2022.
In the event that NIO beats both EPS & revenue forecast in the coming earnings, is the company doing better? In my opinion, it is a “NO”.
Beating such an estimate is not something to brag about as the company remains unprofitable with “falling” sales. It can be too early to call this a falling trend but the quarterly signs are there.
Conclusion
Before we embrace any content from news agencies or investing portals, let us do our due diligence.
One quarter does not define a trend and thus, looking at the business as a whole from afar can help to put some objectivity and remove the impact of seasonality. This will help to put things in a better context as we even out peaks from new launches and service offerings.
Is XPEV making a move higher ? LONGXPEV on the 2H chart had a summer peak with the announcement of the collaboration with
VW which then ran into quicksand. Price fell down to the support and demand zone and
now appears to be rising despite a miss on the earnings report. It seems that with the
US markets in quagmire, some investors and traders are diversifying offshore. XPEV, NIO, BABA
and BIDU may be benefiting. XPEC seems to have a good RS profile with the lower time frame
above the higher time frame and both of the above the 50 level. I will look for a long swing
trade entry on the 15-30 minute time frames targeting a price of 22 for a 25% return
YANG China Leveraged Bearish LONGYANG benefits when the China factories slow down and the economy stagnates
which is the present situation. The weekly chart shows YANG at its highest before
and after covid in 2019-2020. The volume profile shows over the 3+ years most shares
have traded at the present price levels. Price is rising above the POC line of the
volume profile and approaching the long term mean VWAP. The RS indicator shows
sideways strength movement in the mid-ranges. The MACD is curling upward over
a low amplitude histogram. The Asexome Oscillator is sideways. Overall, I will place a
long trade here and then supplement it with an add when the trend direction is stronger
and the Average Directional Index gains amplitude.
NIO Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold NIO when it had a market cap of $75.43 Billion:
or after this comparison to BMW:
and reentered before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NIO prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 10usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-16,
for a premium of approximately $2.48.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NIO to continue in the downward move?NIO - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 10.48 (stop at 11.28)
Prices have reacted from 16.18.
Short term momentum is bearish.
There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end.
A break of the recent low at 10.50 should result in a further move lower.
In our opinion this stock is overvalued.
We look for losses to be extended today.
This stock has seen poor sales growth.
Our profit targets will be 8.48 and 8.08
Resistance: 11.33 / 12.00 / 12.50
Support: 10.50 / 10.00 / 9.50
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Tesla - What To Expect Until September?I heard something rather enlightening on Twitter recently, and it was someone who quoted some sort of analyst as pointing out "Tesla is its own market."
I think that's really correct, and really apt, especially in light of a recent analysis of the new JPM collar that dropped on Friday, where I anticipate a very violent and very major drop in the markets until Q3.
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
The point is that Tesla can (and has; and will) go up or go down regardless of what the indexes are doing
This call is also a continuation of a very successful call I had on Tesla posted in February. Things took several months to pan out to the downside and then to the upside, but everything came to fruition:
Tesla - $250 Is Coming... Don't Lose Your Legs In the Bear Trap
The key thing with Tesla, especially for the long term holders who think this company has a $3 trillion valuation in it like Apple does, is the Q4 dump to almost exactly $100 was anything but bullish.
But fortunately, this "bearishness" has manifested in a significant bounce, and, in my opinion, the Party hasn't yet stopped here.
Speaking of "The Party," you have to be very careful with Tesla because Elon Musk decided to root a huge bulk of his company's production with a Gigafactory in Shanghai-Babylon.
This leaves this company open to exceptionally enormous geopolitical and fundamental risks as President Xi Jinping faces the possibility of having to dump the Chinese Communist Party overnight, any night, because of the battle against both the remnants of the Jiang Zemin faction inside China and the "International Rules Based Order" that's rooted itself in Taiwan.
To put it plainly, the IRBO wants to take over China using someone it has groomed from The Republic when the CCP falls, with the idea being to take down Xi with the Party.
The "Jiang Faction" is significant because it's the architect and conductor of the 24-year-long persecution and genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
The sins are grave to the extreme and can (and will) be weaponized to put an end to the threats to Cathay.
With Tesla, I believe it's going to dump, and with some fury. And during the process, you'll hear a lot of FUD about blah blah fundamentals this, blah blah "can you believe how this ponzi is dumping people who bought $250 will be generational bagholders" that on social media.
You need to ignore all of that, because the day Tesla breaks $100 is the day Tesla is finished.
Moreover, Tesla is about to give you a buying opportunity in the $180 range. Remember that whole adage about "buy the dip"?
You're about to get the opportunity, again, but it won't feel very good because things will be scary and it will seem like everything is going to zero, and tomorrow.
Seriously, read the JPM collar post above.
Once the dust has settled, if the April lows remain intact, then the next target is the equal highs printed in July to September before the enormous sell off, amounting to nearly another two bagger.
But perhaps what Tesla really is aiming for is something Musk can get high on.
If by early September you see the price bouncing and try to short, it'll more or less turn out as bad as it did for NVDIA bears.
No matter how you complain about P/E ratios and market cap and comparisons to Ford and Toyota, the reality is, this is what a bearish market structure actually looks like in action.
The banks sell on red and buy on green.
You buy on green and sell on red.
It's a painful reality, isn't it?
NIO finishing a Fib Retracement Ready to Continue LONGNIO on the 4H chart was on an uptrend into a double top in late July and Early Augus. This
was confluent with the second upper deviation line above the mean anchored VWAP line
which is thick black. Now on the retracement price has hit the mid-Fibonacci levels of
0.38-0.5-0.62. The MACD is sowing an early buy signal with a line cross under the histogram.
I see this as a long trade on continuation with some early bullish divergence with a
the potential upside of 20% back to the VWAP lines whose resistance forced the double top.
I will put this on my China watchlist watching for the pivot low from which to enter.
TSLA - Rising Trend Channel [MID-TERM]🔹Rising trend breaking downwards in medium long term.
🔹Currently testing support at 210, which could potentially signal a POSITIVE reaction, but a downward breakthrough could indicate a NEGATIVE signal.
🔹Low RSI indicate oversold and potential rebound reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern:
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
JD is it a safe short or an early reversal?JD on the 1H chart has been in a solid downtrend worthy of shorting.
However, the zero-lag MACD shows a line cross under the histogram and
a red to green there. The signal has curled. This looks like subtle
divergence. Price is in the area of the mean anchored black VWAP lines.
The mass index indicator is double tapping the reversal zone.
So, what you think? Is there more downside or instead is JD going to
bounce and move up? Please offer your comment !
XPEVXPEV a few weeks back had the hype and excitement of the VW deal marked on the 1H chart
as a head and shoulders from which it has falled onto a thick support and demand zone
at the present. The ZL MACD indicator shows a line cross under the histogram which has
went red to green. On the dual TF RS indicator the greenlower TF has crossed above the
black higher TF and they are both rising reflecting two green candles marking a reversal.
I will get in this long trade early an plan to get 16-18% out of it.
NIO | Solid Price Action At The Current BottomHi,
Nio is a leading electric vehicle maker targeting the premium segment. Founded in November 2014, Nio designs, develops, jointly manufactures, and sells premium smart electric vehicles.
The company differentiates itself through continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations such as battery swapping and autonomous driving technologies.
Nio launched the first model, its ES8 seven-seater electric SUV in December 2017, and began deliveries in June 2018. Its current model portfolio includes midsize to large sedans and SUVs. It sold over 122,000 EVs in 2022, accounting for about 2% of the China passenger new energy vehicle market.
Technically NIO looks attractive; I like the way it found a support level from my previous call(s) at TradingView. I like the previous monthly close and if somebody is interested in it then I can give a technical confirmation. Technically it is solid but you have to consider fundamental risks to invest in China and etc.
Technically haven't seen such a price action that can be attractive for me on the NIO chart. I cannot say that it is the best but first time, since the all-time high, it looks solid and I would like to share it - odds should be in our favor ;)
NIO price got a rejection upwards from the minor horizontal area, there was also the psychological number of $10 and a gap fill from 2020. These criteria held it, got a rejection, and now in the last week it found a great volume and it brought the price to another obstacle which is around $15. So a little pullback was expected.
A strong area around $15 can act, and actually has already acted, as a solid resistance level. Still, I'm waiting for that retest because we have some short-term new higher highs, a strong bullish weekly candle close above the Weekly Moving Average of 50 (orange line).
* Considering the recent price action then we should see the retest and an optimal buying zone should stay between $9.5 to $12.5
* First targets updated on the chart room
Good luck!