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$BTC: Heikin Ashi on the daily reduces noise = bullish trendI highly recommend this setup when looking at a daily bitcoin chart. Heikin ashi candles average out price movement and are a great way to reduce the noise when thinking about trends. A drawback of this is that if violent reversals happen, the heikin chart may lag a bit behind... so that's why I like the dual pane view. The trend is your friend friends. I also like fib levels as price discovery targets. Most everyone uses these levels and thus they are self fulfilling. Either way. We're stacking sats and we're not trading those for an infinitely printed USD.
BYBIT:BTCUSD.PLong
by its_maxbro
Bitcoin: 8500 Still On Radar But 6850 Must Not Break.Bitcoin is poised to break out, but needs to clear the high 7600's decisively in order to clear the way for 8500. Price action continues to gyrate within a very wide support zone and the development of the recent failed low structure is exactly the type of broader reversal pattern that we want to see in such an area. The point of this article is to shed light on the technical points that we consider when adjusting to new market information and to provide some broader context and perspective for the community. I want to thank Reece from Australia, Charvey, Troy Brave (actually met him back in March of 2018!), and everyone else who shared positive comments and constructive feedback about my recent video update. My goal is to publish one of those each week which will serve as an update to these written articles. So here are our technical points: 1. The broad failed low formation between the low 7Ks and the recent 6450 low is a reversal pattern that has materialized within a major support zone. This is what a market bottom looks like and IF price breaks major resistance levels like 8500, 10,300 and etc., then this structure will confirm the broad Wave 2 bottom that we have been WAITING over 6 months for. 2. There is minor support around the whole number 7K. As long as price can maintain this support, it is likely to squeeze higher. The next minor resistance is in the high 7600's. A decisive break and close above this level can stimulate enough short covering to take price to the 8500 resistance level in a matter of hours or days. 3. Can Bitcoin test lower prices? Anything can happen, BUT price would have to close below 6850 in order to prompt a retest of the 6550 reversal zone boundary. Any bullish reversal pattern in these areas would offer compelling swing trade and position trade opportunities based on the criteria of our strategies. 4. Recent candlestick price action (the bearish pin bar followed by the bullish pin bar) is noise. It is the levels (price location) that carries more weight in this situation and they continue to favor bullish reversals in terms of probability. (In other words, shorts are very HIGH risk). 5. Until the 8500 and 10,300 levels are taken out, Bitcoin price action is still within the boundaries of the "corrective consolidation" that we have seen since the 14K peak. This is relevant because it keeps our expectations within the range of tendencies associated with a range bound environment (lack of follow through, erratic price action, low quality signals, etc). Everyone wants to hear 20K by tomorrow, but price structure does not agree YET. 6. We have preset profit targets in the high 7Ks, mid 8Ks and low 9Ks, BUT any large time frame sell signal that appears near a major resistance level will prompt us to consider a manual exit. In a trending environment it is usually better to let a winner run, the problem is Bitcoin is NOT in a trending environment. As the market unfolds and provides new information, perspective adjustment is necessary BUT that is not the same as reacting to new information. "Reacting" such as jumping into a new position, or exiting a position is usually motivated by fear. And fear is the key stimulant for the majority of market participants (the herd). Adjusting perspective means figuring out your decisions or actions in advance: "IF Bitcoin does this, I will do this." In the second example, you are not reacting out of fear because you have evaluated the possibilities in advance and have an idea of what is reasonable to expect. This is not a game about being "right" or predicting the future. It is about managing risk, that's it. Our strategy can produce a string of losses (which it has) but only requires one or two wins to get back to even or ahead. That is how you win when it comes to short term timing. That is why we gauge probabilities based on the price information the market provides and ADJUST them as new information becomes available. Eventually these probabilities align with our reward/risk criteria and we can justify a trade. This is a process, and it has no easy button. Have a happy, healthy and productive new year and thank you all who have been supportive of my efforts on this platform. Let's make the new year a more informed one.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MarcPMarkets
15
BTC MONTLY IS STILL POINTING TOWARDS $5000 LEVELSHello, I know most of us don't want to see 5k levels again but I'm a swing trader. I trade on weekly and monthly candles. I was really impressed of that 40% move by $BTC. I was expecting a green monthly candle because it was due see the past see the market. Market can't go down 12 months an year. I was out of my short position after $7500. I don't long until am settled because the next green candle has no direction that's what happened. I'm going to LONG again when my level fills. It is below $5500. Don't get distracted from the noise. I'm not good with my market don't hate my drawing. :) LONG $5400 #BITCOIN
BITMEX:XBTLong
by WaqasAzam
SPY continues to sell off, amid BS news headlines :DI like how news headlines blame the trade war and impeachment every day. Maybe people don't trust the stock market and want their money. Also, I recommend using the CICO Report for a logical view of the stock market. I suggest trading with a logical frame of mind and ignore the BS emotionally triggering news. If you are emotionally triggered after reading a news story, you are probably reading lies. The CICO Report tallies a running sum of new money into and out of the stock market and has nothing to do with impeachment or the trade war. Ignore the noise and trade smart.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Johnny_Nickles
4
Apple Bearish Counter Attack CandlesAAPL Printed a two candle formation known as a "Bearish Counter Attack". This occurs with one up, green candle first day. Second day sees a gap up open, then red, down candle that closes at the same area as the previous up day closed. In the case of AAPL, it was within one cent. Some research has revealed that this formation results in a down day the next day 57% of the time, with the next day being up 43% of the time. See attached image. www.feedroll.com In my opinion this daily move would fall under the "noise" category, as in a previous post I noted the striking similarity between AAPL price action and a harmonic pattern that could very well take AAPL to 250 before any serious fall. See linked idea. Still money to be made both ways inside a bigger, measured move. Happy hunting and GLTA!!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by UnknownUnicorn1314136
Bitcoin: The New Cure For Insomnia?Bitcoin update: Besides the minor sell off during the beginning of the month, this market has been one big non event. Gyrating between the 3700 resistance and the 3450 support, short term opportunities have become very infrequent. In tight consolidations such as these, there are really only 2 scenarios to choose from: buy into the fake out at support, or WAIT for a decisive break out and then look for continuation patterns. Otherwise, this entire space is out of play, and out of play does not pay. One of the best lessons to learn about market timing is always trade markets that are moving. There are plenty of alternatives at the moment. The British Pound, S&P, and Gold offer opportunities on multiple time frames. With all the political drama circulating, money is flowing on both sides, long and short. Out of these, forex is probably the easiest to participate in since it does not require a ton of capital to get started. The point is, do not waste your energy trying to squeeze money out of markets where there is no money flowing. Until Bitcoin begins trending higher OR lower, the best thing to do is watch and wait. We tried buying some break out attempts earlier in the month and only got stopped out because of the lack of follow through . This is why we have adjusted to waiting for support around 3450 or extreme support around the 3200 area to be tested before getting back in for any swing trades. Patience in these environments is key to coming out ahead in the long run. In terms of the break out scenario, price needs to close above 3700 without any swift pull backs. This is a tough one to sit through because the fear of missing out usually runs high. The least effective thing to do is buy the break out and hope it follows through. The more effective thing to do is let it break out and wait for the next continuation pattern which may be at a higher price, but at least there is some form of confirmation toward further strength. Although both scenarios offer some form of opportunity, we prefer the buying near the support at this point because the reward/risk is more attractive. It is also important to keep in mind that any serious break of the 3400 or 3200 levels without any swift recovery means 3K is likely to be tested again. It can happen, just like the break at 6K. Do not forget that this market is unregulated. Large players have the ability to do anything they want without any regulatory risks. For example, stop hunting is an old market maker game that is perfectly legal in this space. This is especially common is low volume environments. The only way to not get caught up in this is to WAIT for a better environment. Although things are different in terms of fundamentals compared to 2014 to 2016, Bitcoin was relatively stagnant for TWO years before the rally to 20K began. The best time to get into a market is when it is hated and forgotten about, NOT when it is pushing new highs. Even though Bitcoin can drift lower, now is a good time to expand your knowledge on what drives these markets. Capitalize on the quiet time to learn about the psychological elements that drive the herd mentality instead of being driven by it. We are all hard wired by evolution to react to information in uncertain environments, and we tend to oversimplify and grasp at the obvious. Once you recognize these behaviors in yourself, it becomes easier to recognize them in the price action. In summary, Bitcoin and the entire alt space is out of favor. It is hated, and out of play. No action means the opportunities to profit, especially over the short term are extremely limited. If you do not have the ability or the interest to participate in markets where the money is flowing, then at least use this quiet time to familiarize yourself with the psychological drivers that move all markets. There are decades of research conducted on the elements of cognitive bias that lead to irrational investing decisions. Sure, it is boring, and is more likely to serve as a cure to insomnia, BUT it will pay off when new money comes roaring back into these markets. New money means more ignorant, irrational and reactive investors and they provide the source of liquidity where easier profits are generated from. This is the nature of all financial markets. Forcing trades in a market, especially one that is easily dominated by professionals is like trying to squeeze money out of a Poker table full of tight players. You can still win based on the probabilities, but you will most likely get more enjoyment from watching grass grow (and then smoking it).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
Are bears actually bulls in disguise?I'm posting a chart with absolutely no trend-lines, pennants, or any other sort of TA attached for one simple reason; I want to turn down the noise and just reflect on what's happening. Imagine a spring. When you compress or pull the spring and release, it moves back and forth until it finds equilibrium again. The market also acts as such except the spring itself is constantly changing. When we see a series of trend-lines that have the up and down motion inside it, that is the motion of the spring after release. The breaks in trend line is when the market has created a new spring right before release. This is when TA can tell us whether or not the spring will continue it's back and forth motion or if there is a change to the structure. In the last part of 2017 we saw the spring structure change, pulled, and then released. If there was a constant like in physics, we saw the spring bottom out at about 5,9k as we have not seen it drop below that in almost 4 months. So why would we bounce out of this structure. One: people will intentionally weaken the structure or people will intentionally build the structure, the structure being the spring. To the question I pose, it seems like an overwhelming number of bears sell coins knowing or with the intent of buying cheaper as to accumulate more of almost any crypto-currency. Essentially you shock or weaken the structure but understand that it can probably rebuild and put you in a better position. However, after reading their ideas it truly feels that most still expect exponential increase in the long run. So perhaps instead of saying that some one is a perma-bear maybe we should shift perspective and realize that most are just simply smart enough to trade the trend. I think most people are missing a huge point by panicking or not backing up and looking at factors outside of normal trading. Yes there are plenty of whales out there and market makers that are probably consistently manipulating the market, but even whales can't buy countries or compete with most countries GDPs. There are entire countries that are building on blockchain and crypto-currencies as we speak. The big institutions all over the world are prepping trading desks and getting their plans locked down. Major front desk persons have left some of these bigger players to work on their own projects so from the inside they know what is coming. So now ask yourself this. Can all the whales in the world compete with the rest of the world. On the macro level I would have to say it is an extreme and overwhelming "no." They can hinder and slow down or speed up a process, but in the end if we see these currencies come to fruition, not just used as a store of value, then what is a billionaire compared to trillions of dollars of flow of products. The fact that people are more worried about smaller whales and manipulators than global controllers is definitely missing the forest for the trees.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
3