ridethepig | CADNOK 2020 Macro Map A good time to map the strategy and flows for CADNOK as we approach year-end. As you will have noticed I am tracking for a major pullback in the cross over the first half in 2020, this is coming from large macro forces at play. Central bank coordination has opened up the opportunity for NOK to outperform CAD.
Firstly the reflation theme via USD devaluation is going to help Canada a lot less than the rest as Canada will receive a spillover from the US manufacturing recession.
Secondly we need to discuss the impact of Oil across both economies. CAD and NOK are affected by oil with divergencies in their breakevens. For example Canada breakevens are circa $45 compared with Norway at $23 per barrel. Meaning simply Norway has more breathing room for the fall in Oil:
The third and final leg to the stool is coming from yield differentials. After the more dovish than expected shift in stance from BoC, the window is open for a cut which has not been fully priced while Norges which was previously the last hawk standing has hit the pause button. I personally see room for another hike from Norges next year which is the leg I am looking to trade here.
Best of luck all those in CADNOK, a very good pair to add to your FX portfolio.
NOK
EURNOK Short IdeaLast week finally closed out with a breakout of Price is Major Uptrend Channel. Will be waiting for an exhaustion after price plummets bearish, Fibonacci retracement and Extension will be key in this trading idea with the 38% lining up with our retest of breakout trendline and showing a major continuation in bearish trend.
EURNOK: Buy opportunity on the Rising Wedge.The pair is trading within a 1W Rising Wedge (RSI = 59.298, MACD = 0.080, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). Yesterday not only it made contact with the Higher Low trend line, but also touched the 1D MA50 (blue line). This indicates that the price has more probabilities to rebound towards a new Higher High. Our Target Zone is 10.400 - 10.500.
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EURNOK HEAD AND SHOULDERS - BEARISHWaiting for price to break both the Head and Shoulders Pattern and more Importantly the Ascending Channel, this Advanced pattern is invalid if price doesn't continue to break below this Parallel Channel. There's a chance price can Respect its channel and the market will Reverse Bullish, that is why it is so important we let price work its course and we will enter when price is showing us a continuation (Candle Sticks).
NOK short continuationRejected at zone and falling.
Brokevthrough trendline. Watch area
Around emas. With macd crossdown
Could retest bottom zone. Were on a
Gap fill end and at emas. Need confirmation
Below.
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EURNOK in resistance zone near all-time high (rising wedge)EUR/NOK has reached a resistance zone near the all-time high of 10.1573 + spread and may be in a rising wedge. It could be a good long-term short from here (over 10.06), as NOK have been raising interest rates this year (last on Sep 19th), now at 1.50%, due to a solid economy. I'm short from 10.06237 and 10.06587. A short with TP 2000 pips (9.862) SL 2000 pips (10.262) makes the TP within reach and the SL substantially above the all-time high, and if approaching the TP the stop could be moved to 80% of the current profit, and the TP pushed down - perhaps with a partial close performed at the TP level - it could go down to 8.794 if the rising wedge is real and broken or even much lower. Be careful - spreads are wide, pips are small and volatility can be high on this exotic pair! If you take a position (do your own analysis), I recommend very small positions held for the long-term.
EURNOK in resistance zone near all-time highEUR/NOK has reached a resistance zone near the all-time high of 10.1573 + spread. It could be a good long-term short from here (over 10.06), as NOK have been raising interest rates this year (last on Sep 19th), now at 1.50%, due to a solid economy. I'm short from 10.06237 and 10.06587. A short with TP 2000 pips (9.862) SL 2000 pips (10.262) makes the TP within reach and the SL substantially above the all-time high, and if approaching the TP the stop could be moved to 80% of the current profit, and the TP pushed down - perhaps with a partial close performed at the TP level. Be careful - spreads are wide, pips are small and volatility can be high on this exotic pair! Recommend very small positions held for the long-term.
Top and Bottom Analysis on USDNOK by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as a guide to develop your own setup
Main items we see on the 4hs Chart:
a)Price Surpass the Maximum Historical zone and the re-enter to the previous levels (bearish Signal)
b)Currently, we can see a Consolidation Structure, this kind of structures can be considered as continuation patterns
c)We can see an interesting downside potential towards the Daily Ascending Channel
d)If you are planning on taking a trade on this setup, consider opening positions on the breakout of the Corrective Structure
e)You can Break Even on the First Support Zone
d)Consider the Daily ascending trendline as Target
Weekly Vision:
Daily Vision:
NOKJPY: Long term Buy Opportunity.The pair is trading on a long term 1M Channel Down (RSI = 37.681, MACD = -0.379, Highs/Lows = -0.5701) that has come close to the 11.460 1M Support where it rebounded last week. This can be an early signal for a trend reversal and buyers you have entered early can systematically aim at the gaps. First the 12.390 Lower High, which if broke should lead to the 1W Resistance (A) at 12.370 (not a coincidence that the 1W MA50 is currently there. Last gap to fill can be the 1W Resistance (B) at 13.230 where again it is not a coincidence that the 1W EMA200 is currently there. All these levels are Lower Highs on the 1M Channel Down.
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NOKDKK - KRONE / KRONE - 4hr What to expect - ForexI'm 2 for 2 on NOKDKK swings, can we get the third swing? Like the NOK/JPY pair, the NOK/DKK pair also looks to want to reverse trend soon. This ticker actually looks like its has already done its pullback and tested lows and is now going to swing up. It could pull back again but I would be looking for longs for now. I'm not personally taking a trade on this pair but rather the NOK/JPY pair, (see chart). But not a bad reversal signal. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE - TRADE SAFE.
Trade Idea + Top and Bottom Analysis on USDNOK by ThinkingAntsOkUse this as an Idea to develop your own setup
Main Items we see on the 4HS Chart:
a)Price is on Maximum Historical Highs, this is an important Resistance Zone (check Weekly chart)
b)MACD divergence, this is a clear signal of the weakness of the current bullish movement
c)The Main Ascending trendline is broken and the price is making a pullback over that trendline
d)Currently, we can see a Wedge pattern structure, this type of formations are reversal structures
e)On the chart we have set Entry/Stop/Take Profit, this configuration gives a really good Risk Reward Ratio, Higher than 2:1 with a really good Stop
Multy timeframe analysis
Weekly Chart:
Daily Chart: