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NOK

USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pressured by 55– and 100-hour SMAsAfter scoring 2018 high at the 8.50 mark, the USD/NOK exchange rate has been declining since the middle August. The pair has been following a short-term bearish channel. This lack of direction is caused by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs which are pressuring the rate from north. At the time of this analysis, both moving averages were located at 8.3588 and 8.3809, accordingly. It is expected that a breakout of these lines would be met with a surge in the respective scenario. Technical indicators on longer time-framers are in favour of the bullish scenario. In this case, a few-day target is the weekly PP at 8.3768. On the other hand, bears are likely to push the rate down to the weekly S2 at 8.2154.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Pair shows signs of reversalThe most recent development of the EUR/NOK exchange rate is a breakout from the senior channel which occurred near 9.59 on August 16. This move has extended the pair’s three-day gain to 1.65%. As a result, the Euro reached the upper boundary of a ten-week ascending channel at 9.68. Even though the price still continues to edge higher today, technical indicators are starting to point to a possible change in sentiment. It is likely that a reversal south occurs soon, as the current three-day surge cannot be sustainable for long. It is likely that the pair makes a U-turn near the channel line and the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement somewhere in the 9.70 area. A possible downside target for the following sessions is the 55– and 100-period (4H) SMAs and the monthly PP at 9.50.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
meanwhile in the forgotten land of scandinavian forex ....while people are stuck and excited on the big pairs .... and losing a lot of money, the best pairs are the forgotten ones. noksek is closely monitored by the swedish and norwegian central banks, so that there is no big deviation so no big losses on your account, and the moves are repetitive like a parrot. we have reached again a situation with a parallel UBB, MM and LBB, nothing more perfect than that for a calm and without risk move on noksek. it will decrease steadily with a first corrective bounce at 1.04 (because of the first geometric blockade on a weekly zoom). just short noksek, and wait .... if the monthly candle creates an opening upward of the slope of the UBB, it will completely invalidate the move, noksek will be able to drift upward again, but you will see it coming as noksek evolves smoothly and slowly, so you will have the time to see and react before accumulating big latent losses.
Short
by lapin_eliott
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Bearish in medium termUSD/NOK is trading in a long-term ascending channel. The rate bounced off its upper boundary at 8.33—its highest position in 2018 - late in May. Subsequently, the US Dollar initiated a new wave down towards the other senior channel line located circa 7.90. This bearish movement was stopped by the monthly S1, the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement and the 55– and 200-day SMAs at the 8.00 mark. This resulted in a reversal back to the upside. It seems that the pair might be ready to breach the short-term ascending channel to the downside, thus resuming its decline until the bottom channel line in the 8.00/05 range is reached somewhere in July. A possible confirmation of this bearish scenario should be provided by the US Dollar breaching the combined support of the 55-, 100– and 200-period (4H) SMAs at 8.10.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Pair returns to senior channelStrong upside momentum has driven the USD/NOK exchange rate since late March. The pair had appreciated 8.60% until it peaked near the 8.32 mark on Tuesday. It likewise breached the prevailing one-year channel on the same day. As a result, the US Dollar shot up to the 8.32 level and subsequently fell back to the breached senior channel. During the past few weeks, the pair has been trading in a rising wedge pattern. It is expected that the pair remains trading in this pattern and thus edges lower within the following sessions. The pair is likely to find strong support at its bottom boundary which is reinforced by the weekly PP, the 200-hour SMA and the monthly R1 at 8.10. Meanwhile, the pair’s overall direction within the following two weeks should be towards its ten-month high near 8.45.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Long-term triangle dominatesThe EUR/NOK exchange rate has been constrained by a descending triangle which was formed in November, 2017. After testing the upper boundary of this long-term pattern early in May, the common European currency began depreciating against its Norwegian counterpart, thus reaching its bottom boundary at 9.47, likewise reinforced by the monthly S2, mid-yesterday. It is likely that some downward pressure still prevails during the remaining part of this week, given that the pair might be pressured lower by the combined resistance of the 55-, 100– and 200-day SMAs near 9.60. However, the general price direction should nevertheless remain upwards in line with the prevailing triangle pattern, with its upper boundary being located at 9.65.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Bounded in bearish patternsThe movement of EUR/NOK has been bounded in several patterns. Following a two-week period of appreciation, the pair bounced off the upper boundary of the senior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement at 9.70 and formed a new wave downwards. This movement has been relatively flat, as the Euro has since remained trading near the senior channel. By mid-today, the pair was testing the combined support of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the 50.0% Fibo line at 9.61. The current positioning of the pair suggests that it should decline both in the short and medium term. The nearest target is the bottom boundary of the junior channel and the 61.8% Fibo at 9.52, while a downward-sloping trend-line circa 9.42 could be targeted within the following two weeks. The 9.60 area still needs to be breached to confirm this scenario. Conversely, a breakout of the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 9.63 is likely to result in a re-test of the senior channel circa 9.68.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Bearish correction expectedThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Norwegian Krone this week. The pair shot up 2.82% in just one session, thus moving away from the 2016/2018 low of 7.64 and confirming one more time a downward-sloping trend-line circa 7.8820. The pair has since edged slightly lower in order to ease from the aforementioned daily surge. It is likely that the current bearish sentiment continues to prevail in the market during the following week. A breakout of the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement, the weekly R1 and the 55-hour SMA near 7.8270 could be an early indication of this bearish scenario. The following support of significance is formed by the 100– and 200-hour SMAs near 7.60. In general, the Greenback could target the bottom trend-line and the monthly R1 in the 7.66 territory next week. On the other hand, in case the strong resistance of the weekly R2, the monthly PP and the trend-line is breached near 7.860, the rate should push towards 8.00.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690
SWISS INVESTORS LOOK ELSEWHERE PT. 2"We expect risk appetite to rebound, helped by benign wage growth in the US. In this environment, short CHFNOK trades should do well. Recent Norwegian macro data have generally beaten market expectations, with forward looking indicators like PMI also holding up well. NOK also receives additional support from rallying oil price which helps its oil sector, as evidenced in the strong regional network survey (next 6m outlook reaching the highest level since 2012),which has historically set the tone for the Norges Bank. On the CHF side, we expect Swiss private investors to invest more abroad with the Italian election and German SPD vote confirming that the risk of Eurozone break-up remains low, and the ECB continuing to move towards policy normalisation. We do not expect the SNB to change its accommodative policy this week given uncertainty over the impending vote on the Swiss sovereign money initiative in June and inflation still far below 2%. The SNB may continue to limit the CHF upside, as the sight deposits data suggests that they resumed FX interventions when EURCHF was hovering around 1.15. The risks to this trade are the Norges Bank striking a dovish tone or the SNB being more hawkish this week." Morgan Stanley
Short
by itzbert
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