NOK
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Rate stranded in wedgeAfter reaching the 2016/2017 low of 7.7018 on September 8, USD/NOK started a period of recovery in an ascending channel.
If looking at the current situation, the pair’s latest wave down began two weeks ago and it is gradually leading the US Dollar towards the bottom boundary of the previously-mentioned channel. This movement has been stranded in a falling wedge.
From a theoretical point of view, all indications point to a soon breakout north. Given that the pair retraced from the 50.0% Fibo, the Greenback might still push slightly lower down to the 8.09 area where the 38.2% Fibo and the weekly S1 are located. However, the rate’s subsequent movement should be to the upside.
Meanwhile, the steepness of the channel up is unlikely to hold for long now, and thus the pair could eventually break the bottom boundary of this pattern—most probably during next week. A medium-term upside target is expected to be the monthly R1 at 8.3142.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Pair tests triangleThe common European currency is trading against the Norwegian Krone in a channel up valid since mid-July. The latest test of its upper line occurred on October 31.
Along the way, the rate entered another patter—a descending triangle. The general characteristics of this pair suggest that the rate should break out to the upside.
The rate hindering near the upper triangle boundary might serve as an early indication of such a move. This scenario would set the Euro towards the upper boundary of a junior channel circa 9.56.
However, the rate has been stranded between the 55– and 200-hour SMAs for two sessions. A breach of one of these lines is likely to set the tone for the subsequent movement. In case the 200-hour SMA is breached, the aforementioned scenario should occur.
Conversely, a breach of the former should guide the pair towards the 9.43 mark in the short-term and possibly even lower.
USDNOK long for month of NovemberUSDNOK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin.
My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0.
Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target.
These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure.
* End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Euro tests three-month highThe common European currency is trading in two ascending channels against the Norwegian Krone. The senior pattern formed around mid-August and has since stranded the rate in a slight upward momentum. The junior one, on the other hand, has been valid for two weeks, having provided two confirmations on each side.
Following a surge mid-Wednesday, the Euro is consequently trading with low volatility along the upper boundary of the senior channel circa 9.48. This level that is likewise a three-month high is supported by the monthly R1.
Given that the rate has shown reluctance to move past the given area, the pair might respect the boundaries of the senior pattern and move lower. However, the steepness of the junior channel suggests that this decline might actually be sideways until 9.42 is reached.
In case the pair reverses near this mark, it is likely that the Euro breaches the senior channel and surges up to 9.56 where the monthly R2 is located.
USD/NOK tests channelThe US Dollar has strengthened against the Norwegian Krone since mid-August, thus forming a channel up.
If looking at the pair’s movement during the past two weeks, a junior ascending channel could also be distinguished. The Greenback is trading near the lower boundary of this short-term pattern, suggesting that a reversal might be in sight. This assumption is likewise supported by technical oscillators that are located near the oversold territory.
A possible point of reversal might be the weekly S1 circa 7.9344. The subsequent movement is expected to be north, as no indication points to a possible breakout of the junior formation. The nearest upside target is the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 7.9850.
However, the rate might push even higher towards the weekly R1 at 8.0404. In the medium term, it should move towards the bottom boundary of the senior pattern in the 7.90/94 territory.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe EUR/NOK currency pair has been stranded in an ascending channel in force since mid-July. The latest confirmation was provided in this session when the price halted near the 9.33 mark for the second time in two days.
Being a bullish pattern, this ascending channel should guide the pair for an upside breakout that may occur next week. However, the latest two peaks have failed to reach the upper channel boundary, thus suggesting that bulls might have lost their strength.
Thus, the 9.36 area should be observed carefully. In case the rate does not surpass the short-term down-trend, a bearish breakout is the most likely option.
USD/NOK approaches medium-term channelThe US Dollar has appreciated against the Norwegian Krone during the past four weeks. As a result, the pair has formed two patterns, namely, a channel up and a descending wedge.
It seems that the junior formation has already reached maturity; thus, a breakout, most probably to the upside, is likely to occur already in this session. Technical oscillators are close to being in the oversold area. Thus, the base scenario favours the US Dollar falling down to the bottom channel boundary circa 7.78 and subsequently reversing to the upside.
Nevertheless, the Greenback faces a significant resistance set by the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 7.8200/7.8600 area. If this territory is breached, it is likely that the rate tries to approach the upper channel boundary during September.
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownThe European common currency is trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone. The given pattern is a relatively narrow short-term formation that can be considered as a part of an intermediate ascending channel.
The rate reached the lower channel boundary of both patterns mid-session and therefore is expected to dash above the 9.32 mark to initiate a new wave upwards in line with the senior formation. Trend indicators demonstrate weakening of the down-trend, while other technicals support an upward breakout.
This movement should be confirmed when the pair surpasses the 55-hour SMA circa 9.33 or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9.3380. In case the rate still manages to trade lower before the predicted reversal, it might be halted by the weekly S2 located near the four-month low at 9.25.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/NOK is currently trading in a short-term channel down. The given patter was formed when the US Dollar lost value against the Norwegian Krone within the last week, thus resulting in a breakout of a more senior channel.
The rate halted at a two-month low of 7.7276 and has since recovered minor loses. Even though daily technical indicators flash bearish signals, the rate is expected to appreciate until the upper channel boundary near the 7.80 mark prior to resuming its downward momentum.
The upper channel line roughly matches the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 7.81—a level that could eventually reverse the US Dollar to the downside. The fall may be limited by the weekly and monthly S1s in the 7.67/68 area.
USD/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe US Dollar was depreciating against the Norwegian Krone for several weeks when this momentum downwards allayed, thus resulting in the formation of a descending triangle. The lowest point of the fall, t.i., the 7.7571 mark, is likewise the 2016/2017 low. The pair was also trading in a symmetrical triangle which was breached to the upside last week. The Greenback has not yet made a retracement from this junior triangle; thus, there is still some downside potential that could be realised in the nearest hours. Taking into account the slight up-trend (which was formed by the lower boundary of the junior triangle), the rate might halt at this line near the 7.8800 mark and reverse to the upside.
Monthly short set up on EURNOKMonthly candle analysis suggests EURNOK may move lower. This together with Brexit turmoil and economic instability in the world will help propel this pair down.
This instrument is now on my watch list for the month of August. I'll be looking for short signals on the daily time frame. Once I get a signal I will attempt to make entry on the 15 minute chart during London.
Big move for GBPNOK this month?Monthly candle analysis suggests that this market may move lower this month. This is due to how price behaved around the 5 EMA in July as well as economic uncertainty keeping GBP weak.
This pair is now on my watch list for the month of August. I'll be watching the daily time frame for short signals. Once I get a signal on the daily, I'll move down to the 15 minute chart and try and catch the high of the day during London.
My goal is to "scalp" this month's potential movement, booking pips on the way down.