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NOK

USDNOK long for month of NovemberUSDNOK broke the moving average, suggesting a potential trend change. This in tandem with October's monthly bull candle gives me enough reason to believe an up trend is about to begin. My orders are placed at fibonacci retracement levels 1.0, 78.6, 61.8, 50.0, 38.2, 23.6. and 0.0. Each order contains a 30 pip stop loss and no take profit target. These trades are designed to have 3 different exit strategies: 1) Stop out. 2) Manual closure. 3) End of month manual closure. * End of month manual closure means that the month is over and trade parameters are no longer valid, therefore I will close the trades manually.
Long
by BACapitalManagement
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Euro tests three-month highThe common European currency is trading in two ascending channels against the Norwegian Krone. The senior pattern formed around mid-August and has since stranded the rate in a slight upward momentum. The junior one, on the other hand, has been valid for two weeks, having provided two confirmations on each side. Following a surge mid-Wednesday, the Euro is consequently trading with low volatility along the upper boundary of the senior channel circa 9.48. This level that is likewise a three-month high is supported by the monthly R1. Given that the rate has shown reluctance to move past the given area, the pair might respect the boundaries of the senior pattern and move lower. However, the steepness of the junior channel suggests that this decline might actually be sideways until 9.42 is reached. In case the pair reverses near this mark, it is likely that the Euro breaches the senior channel and surges up to 9.56 where the monthly R2 is located.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK tests channelThe US Dollar has strengthened against the Norwegian Krone since mid-August, thus forming a channel up. If looking at the pair’s movement during the past two weeks, a junior ascending channel could also be distinguished. The Greenback is trading near the lower boundary of this short-term pattern, suggesting that a reversal might be in sight. This assumption is likewise supported by technical oscillators that are located near the oversold territory. A possible point of reversal might be the weekly S1 circa 7.9344. The subsequent movement is expected to be north, as no indication points to a possible breakout of the junior formation. The nearest upside target is the 200-, 100– and 55-hour SMAs and the weekly PP circa 7.9850. However, the rate might push even higher towards the weekly R1 at 8.0404. In the medium term, it should move towards the bottom boundary of the senior pattern in the 7.90/94 territory.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe EUR/NOK currency pair has been stranded in an ascending channel in force since mid-July. The latest confirmation was provided in this session when the price halted near the 9.33 mark for the second time in two days. Being a bullish pattern, this ascending channel should guide the pair for an upside breakout that may occur next week. However, the latest two peaks have failed to reach the upper channel boundary, thus suggesting that bulls might have lost their strength. Thus, the 9.36 area should be observed carefully. In case the rate does not surpass the short-term down-trend, a bearish breakout is the most likely option.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK approaches medium-term channelThe US Dollar has appreciated against the Norwegian Krone during the past four weeks. As a result, the pair has formed two patterns, namely, a channel up and a descending wedge. It seems that the junior formation has already reached maturity; thus, a breakout, most probably to the upside, is likely to occur already in this session. Technical oscillators are close to being in the oversold area. Thus, the base scenario favours the US Dollar falling down to the bottom channel boundary circa 7.78 and subsequently reversing to the upside. Nevertheless, the Greenback faces a significant resistance set by the 200-, 55– and 100-hour SMA and the weekly and monthly PPs in the 7.8200/7.8600 area. If this territory is breached, it is likely that the rate tries to approach the upper channel boundary during September.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownThe European common currency is trading in a channel down against the Norwegian Krone. The given pattern is a relatively narrow short-term formation that can be considered as a part of an intermediate ascending channel. The rate reached the lower channel boundary of both patterns mid-session and therefore is expected to dash above the 9.32 mark to initiate a new wave upwards in line with the senior formation. Trend indicators demonstrate weakening of the down-trend, while other technicals support an upward breakout. This movement should be confirmed when the pair surpasses the 55-hour SMA circa 9.33 or the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 9.3380. In case the rate still manages to trade lower before the predicted reversal, it might be halted by the weekly S2 located near the four-month low at 9.25.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownUSD/NOK is currently trading in a short-term channel down. The given patter was formed when the US Dollar lost value against the Norwegian Krone within the last week, thus resulting in a breakout of a more senior channel. The rate halted at a two-month low of 7.7276 and has since recovered minor loses. Even though daily technical indicators flash bearish signals, the rate is expected to appreciate until the upper channel boundary near the 7.80 mark prior to resuming its downward momentum. The upper channel line roughly matches the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP circa 7.81—a level that could eventually reverse the US Dollar to the downside. The fall may be limited by the weekly and monthly S1s in the 7.67/68 area.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/NOK 1H Chart: TriangleThe US Dollar was depreciating against the Norwegian Krone for several weeks when this momentum downwards allayed, thus resulting in the formation of a descending triangle. The lowest point of the fall, t.i., the 7.7571 mark, is likewise the 2016/2017 low. The pair was also trading in a symmetrical triangle which was breached to the upside last week. The Greenback has not yet made a retracement from this junior triangle; thus, there is still some downside potential that could be realised in the nearest hours. Taking into account the slight up-trend (which was formed by the lower boundary of the junior triangle), the rate might halt at this line near the 7.8800 mark and reverse to the upside.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
1
Big move for GBPNOK this month?Monthly candle analysis suggests that this market may move lower this month. This is due to how price behaved around the 5 EMA in July as well as economic uncertainty keeping GBP weak. This pair is now on my watch list for the month of August. I'll be watching the daily time frame for short signals. Once I get a signal on the daily, I'll move down to the 15 minute chart and try and catch the high of the day during London. My goal is to "scalp" this month's potential movement, booking pips on the way down.
Short
by BACapitalManagement
USD/NOK changes in favour of bullsThe US Dollar has appreciated substantially against the Norwegian Krone, jumping more than 80% within the last eight years. The ultimate high was reached in January 2016 when the pair managed to push up to the 8.9682 mark. Subsequently, the Greenback traded lower and entered a long-term consolidation period that confined the price in the 8.8000/8.0000 territory. However, the rate’s slight steepness downwards resulted in the formation of a falling wedge that has already provided three confirmations on each side. Currently, the rate has reached the bottom boundary of the wedge pattern and is flashing some strong signals to a possible appreciation within the following months. Starting from technical oscillators located in the strongly oversold area and MACD being at an historical low, ending with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and a Gann period line (drawn from 8.9682) situated near the current price level. It should be noted that the former taken from the ultimate low to high (at 4.9585 and 8.9682, respectively) has worked effectively at identifying possible areas of reversal. Even though trend indicators are still demonstrating the prevalence of a relatively strong down-trend, it is likely that the rate has not simply recovered from the latest monthly plunge of almost 8%. In terms of a possible upside target, the US Dollar may shoot up as high as the 8.6000 mark where an intersection of the upper wedge boundary and a Gann period line is located. Moreover, the 55-, 100- and 200-day SMAs are likely to be situated in the same territory at the time. Moving on to the hourly chart, it is apparent that the USD/NOK exchange rate is trading in a channel down in force since early July. The rate failed to hit the bottom wedge boundary and thus reversed in the middle of the pattern. In case the rate manages to reach the upper channel line, it may function as a strong signal that a breakout to the upside may be due. By and large, daily technical indicators were rather clear in terms of the rate’s long-term appreciation; thus, the senior channel down is expected to be breached within the upcoming trading days. The price moving above the 100- and 200-hour SMAs may function as the necessary confirmation that this upward momentum is not a temporary correction, but a start of an intermediate up-trend.
Long
by UnknownUnicorn890690
NOKUSD vs Crude Oil - will this divergence compress soon?Norwegian Krone is highly correlated to Crude Oil futures (front month), but over the last year it appears to diverge. NOK/USD has continued to slide while Crude stabilised. This could be due to strengthening Dollar, and the low oil prices indicating weaker future economic growth. The blue trend line marks multi-year highs. With prices touching this trend, combined with a relative underperformance of NOK/USD to Crude, this could see NOK/USD break higher, and soon. An interesting pair to watch no less, particularly when there is divergence as seen at the end of 2017, which provides an attractive spread trade of Long NOK/USD Short Crude.
Long
by MVedra
EUR/NOK 1H Chart: Channel DownThe European common currency is trading in a narrow channel down against the Norwegian Krone. The given pattern was formed after the rate failed to reach the upper boundary of a rising wedge. Nevertheless, the price has altered its direction, as apparent from its failure to reach the upper channel boundary. The rate plunged mid-session, but was supported by the monthly S2 at 9.3007. Thus, the upcoming hours should indicate about its future direction. Technical indicators are generally bearish, suggesting that a breakout is likely to occur to the downside. This scenario may realise in case the aforementioned S1 is breached. The nearest resistance is formed by the weekly S1 at 9.3329, while the 55-hour SMA circa 9.3800 might be considered a more significant upside barrier.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn890690