A NOKout in round 1 - Why the NOK will win 2024Over the past two years, the Norwegian krone has undoubtedly been one of the big losers in the FX market.
Not only has it embarrassingly been constantly beaten up even against the EUR and traded at an all-time low, no, since November 2022 it has bottomed vs. ALL G10 currencies.
This was hardly surprising as almost all fundamental factors spoke against the NOK.
However, the tide will turn dramatically in 2024:
NOK positive:
➡️ Energy prices appear to have bottomed out and could rise again🟢
➡️ The oil price seems to be stabilising around the USD 60-70 mark and could rise in the event of a soft landing🟢
➡️ January and February are seasonally positive for the NOK🟢
➡️ Norges Bank surprised EVERYONE in December by raising interest rates again🟢
➡️ Norges Bank enters 2024 as one of the hawkishest of the G10 central banks
➡️ A further rate hike by Norges Bank in early 2024 cannot be ruled out🟢
➡️ It would raise interest rates while virtually all other central banks would be in rate cut mode🟢
➡️ Norges Bank will drastically reduce its NOK purchases from January (as previously announced by me in the NOKSEK Tradeidee ), see here:
NOKCHF
CHF/NOK Short From ResistanceThis has retraced back to resistance as expected, now there is the opportunity to short. If we see this rebound from this resistance and MACD remain below 0 and EMA's do not cross higher then this will drop. Target is 9.02671 where this should find support and bounce higher.
CHF/NOK Retrace Made, Now Turn LowerAlready short on this but it has retraced back to resistance and is now rejecting from here. More shorts can be entered with SL above the high of support and I have a target of 9.07100. There are a couple of support levels before the target which are shown on the chart, these can be used for short term profit taking and used with a swing trading strategy for lower risk.
CHF/NOK Awaiting Turn LowerLooking for a short on this. The support was broken and it is now retesting as resistance. Waiting for this to reject then can enter the short. Target is 9.32335, there may be some support at 9.40720 which could cause the price to rebound slightly but hopefully it will pass through this. There is also a longer term target at 9.07100.
NOK: Norwegian krone is a long against the yenWe have a nice pair opportunity (and perhaps a great *USD trade) in the NOK crosses. NOK shows excellent relative strength, and has a lot of catching up to do with the Yen, which makes it ideal to long NOKJPY or long NOKUSD and short JPYUSD, risking 1 weekly/monthly ATR per side.
The NOKUSD trade is to long at market or on dips, and risk a drop under today's open, if you're interested in taking it, targets on chart (upper Brexit Key level). See comments for the NOKJPY chart (my signals group clients arealready long for one day).
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Cheers!
Ivan Labrie
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Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.25% on such information.