NOKSEK
NOKSEK Buy SignalPattern: Ascending Triangle on 1D.
Signal: Bullish since the 1.0890 Resistance broke upwards.
Target: 1.1000 (lower 1W Resistance).
NOK/SEK: Pullback complete?The recent recovery is classified as a counter trend move. Now that this recovery has reached the 38.2% retracement as well as the MA200 (not shown) from the down side, I expect the setting of a new lower peak on the medium to longer term charts. After some consolidation pressure should mount again leading to a resumption of the primary down trend. Focus remains on ~1.0230 and the projection at 1.0100 for the next 3-6 months. It is imperative that the resistance cluster 1.0550<>1.0620 holds out over the next 2-3 weeks.
Not a "screaming sell" , but a good opportunity with very friendly risk-reward.
NOKSEK Sell SignalPattern: Rectangle on 4H.
Signal: Bearish as the price is just under the Resistance Zone.
Target: 1.0725.
a micro analysis on eursekfollowing our last analysis on eursek where we expect a big drop, we expect eursek to behave the very same way it did the last two peaks before drop last months. to target the exact point of reversal during those endless ascending move (generally heralding an important reversal) we want to see two things :
1) the upper bollinger band on 4h time frame must draw an upper parabolic maximum
2)the price curve must in a last attempt (typical stop loss hunting) impulsively touch this point and reverse immediately
regarding how eursek is near of such a situation this should take place this monday or at the latest thursday with a flat monday to bring confusion first.
we shall do nothing before seeing that, if it crosses badly this upper bollinger band we won't be caught, if it falls even without doing so we won't believe in the reality of the fall, experience on eursek tells us to be cautious and act if and only if those two conditions are met before
eursek, all or nothingeursek has been perfectly bouncing on a support 3 times with a bounce losing intensity each time it hit the support, then it broke and started confidently a down move inside a new channel below. of course now we have through a perfect alignment a retest by below of this previous support, exactly at this point the DMI reaches an extreme value, we do not see how eursek can do anything else than dropping sharply now, this move is also supported by what we see on noksek, usdsek, eurnok and eurusd. this is very simple, if eursek surprisingly cross confidently the 1.53 1.54 area, we will see it coming very soon and then we freeze everything, the loss will be minimal, otherwise we can short eursek massively from where it stands
Both targets hit. Support test ahead. Short.Both long and short targets hit on NOKSEK as the price made a two-way swing within the Rectangle's 1.09456 Resistance and 1.07445 Support. The 1W Rectangle remains valid (RSI = 56.591, STOCH = 52.647, ADX = 18.466) and we will continue applying a scalping approach, currently on a short aiming at the 1.07445 Support (TP).
NOKSEK Reverse Head and Shoulders Pattern on 1D ChartAs you can see from this 1D chart, there is an inverse head and shoulders pattern and the neckline got broken a few days ago which signals that the pattern is complete and it is ready to go up. Moreover, the price is still above the moving average which tells us that the price is still in an uptrend. Therefore, we can buy NOKSEK at this pullback and aim for the price objective as shown in the chart
SEK advancing remains on the agenda=> For those following our USDSEK idea you will know we believe the negative SEK flow is something that has run its course.
=> Oil is starting to look very heavy at the highs, the boat is fully loaded with almost 90% are now bullish. In the oven we have more advancements coming on the electric side which will likely show a clear inflexion point for the end of oil as we know it adding further pressure to NOK.
=> The Riksbank like a deer in the headlights has been put under pressure domestically for allowing the SEK to slide. This will change going forward as the ECB unwinding its asset purchase program begins to take the spotlight in Q4 giving the Riksbank more policy flexibility.
=> Both NOKSEK and USDSEK shorts make sense moving fwd.
=> GL all
Rectangle Pattern on 1W. Scalp.NOKSEK is trading within a long term Rectangle on 1W (Williams = -53.421, CCI = 12.5397, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) with 1D indicating that at the moment the price is on the pivot (RSI = 51.985, ADX = 17.916) with both directions equally probable. We will be scalping within the Resistance (1.09456) and Support (1.07445) lines indicated in blue.
meanwhile in the forgotten land of scandinavian forex ....while people are stuck and excited on the big pairs .... and losing a lot of money, the best pairs are the forgotten ones. noksek is closely monitored by the swedish and norwegian central banks, so that there is no big deviation so no big losses on your account, and the moves are repetitive like a parrot. we have reached again a situation with a parallel UBB, MM and LBB, nothing more perfect than that for a calm and without risk move on noksek. it will decrease steadily with a first corrective bounce at 1.04 (because of the first geometric blockade on a weekly zoom). just short noksek, and wait .... if the monthly candle creates an opening upward of the slope of the UBB, it will completely invalidate the move, noksek will be able to drift upward again, but you will see it coming as noksek evolves smoothly and slowly, so you will have the time to see and react before accumulating big latent losses.
NOKSEK long favoured on the break of the falling wedgeNOK has been weak compared with SEK for a while now. we might have a change in scandies relative strenght on the way.
NOK/SEK long term viewFor the past 6 months the pair has been correcting on the Weekly/Monthly chart. So far it made a 3 wave correction, and i am expecting an impulse up to the 0.236 Fib. Will see how the price reacts there, but there are 2 scenarios:
a. we break the corrective structure and go up, or
b. we will have another move down for a 5 wave correction.
Either way, its very probable that we will be going up.
FIY: NOK/SEK has a positive swap so its also a carry trade.
NOKSEK short risky tradeNOKSEK running on the upper side of a daily channel and RSI show some divergences on H1 and H4. I'd short it at 1.03 with a SL at 1.01382 and TP at 1,015
A basic NOK index shows that it reaches a Weekly Fibo retr. but the risk factor is the fundamental data about NOK released some days ago.
Basic NOK index
SEKNOK: Massive carry, and potential long term top in this pair,SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart.
I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart.
I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top. Bearish momentum is evident and we can expect more commitment to come into this pair as time goes by.
Holding shorts in this pair, yields a nice carry because of the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krona's interest rate differential, so I'm sure many will be looking to benefit from it, either trading forward swaps, or by trading currency. (the former seemingly posessing lower risk, but not so easily accesible to most traders unlike the FX cross).
Good luck if taking this trade, remember to keep risk below 1%, and stops above the red line on chart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
