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NOKUSD

Nokia - a sleeping giant?Nokia has been quiet for years - too quiet I suspect. You remember those old brick phones, the ones that were nearly indestructible, right? I have been watching Nokia off and on since March of last year, trying to find a decent entry point. This is an update to my original idea linked below. Due to Nokia's prior reputation, I have for nearly a year had a very strong hunch that it is soon to have a major break upwards. On Robinhood, there is a $7 call leap contract that expires 1/21/2022. It is currently trading for 16 cents. Around the end of October, the leap contract hit a low of 12 cents then had a fairly impressive rebound to higher than 21 cents. Currently, I am holding the largest position I have ever had in stocks. Specifically on Nokia, after I saw that it bottomed yet again at 12 cents. A lot of people would say going all in on one position is not smart, but I'm not a person that can pay attention to too many things/assets at once. Plus, the feeling I have about this stock is next to unbreakable, no matter what it does in the short term. Fundamentals aside, this is a chart analysis of why I believe Nokia is not just 'a' sleeping giant, but 'the' sleeping giant. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - This is a trend line in Nokia that I spotted which began on the week of February 20th, 2001. Nokia broke below this trend line with force between the weeks of April 19th, 2010, and April 26th, 2010. Since then, Nokia has failed to break above it for any significant amount of time until the week of May 22nd, 2017. Unfortunately Nokia was unable to hold mid-term support and on the week of October 23rd, 2017, had a significant ~20% drop. Nokia has battled with breaking and staying above this trend line since then, with every break below causing significant selling pressure. Interestingly, Nokia has an earnings report coming up on February 4th, 2021. Almost 20 years to the day that this trend began. I believe Nokia is fairly close to breaking above this trend line for good due to a few things I am seeing on the chart. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - When I check the RSI, I immediately notice multiple trends. The first one being Nokia significantly rejecting any value above 60. From the week of January 21st, 2014 to April 17th, 2017, Nokia did not stay above 60 RSI. Even the April 2017 break above was short lived. Also notice, that break above 60 RSI was likely caused by Nokia testing support at first the .618 Fib, then the .50 Fib. It then proceeded to have a longer-term triple top in price at the $6.4 resistance while the RSI was printing noticeably lower highs. The failure in 2019 to break above this resistance then began another major downtrend. This is the second trend I spotted in the RSI. This is also the second biggest justification I have for being so bullish on Nokia. Since entering overbought in late 2013, Nokia has failed at breaking above 60 RSI let alone 70 until the end of May, 2017. The May high in the RSI created a few different trend lines that Nokia has reacted very strongly to. Up until April 2020, the longest amount of time that Nokia's RSI has been able to spend above this resistance is approximately 2 months. On the week of April 20th, 2020, Nokia was able to break above this trend with force, and after 2 successful support tests has so far stayed above it. A much smaller and shorter-term trend line I noticed. Currently, Nokia is above it. When we go into the 3d chart, we can see that this trend line was rejected as resistance on October 19th after falling below it in late August. In late November, the RSI once again managed to break back above it. It successfully passed a support test and is currently attempting to test it once more to flip it from resistance into support. When we check the daily, however, there is something interesting to be seen. After briefly dipping below this trend line, the RSI had a decent rally back above it. We can see that this is the 3rd attempt to test for support. Should the next 3 day candle hold, this should cause another test of local resistance. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - And now, the MACD. The MACD has, in my opinion, been showing consistency over the past 10 years with a trend line of higher lows. With the exception of the drop from Covid, the major lows in the MACD have all been higher than the last. Even when the Covid drop happened, the MACD printed bullish divergence. The MACD histogram at the same time printed hidden bullish divergence. This caused Nokia to have a ~119% rally. We can also see that, currently, the MACD is above the higher lows trend line. Zooming out to the 1 month time frame, an interesting situation. After testing and rejecting the 0 line, the MACD printed what is so far a potential double bottom. A break above the 0 line will validate this scenario. There is also a slight bullish cross. The histogram has also flipped upwards, but not by a significant margin. The 2 month shows a few other interesting signals. The thing that catches my eye here is what seems to be very strong bullish divergence. The September 2020 price low is approximately 28% lower than the September 2016 low, yet the MACD is showing a higher low. Nokia is also attempting a bullish cross here after being rejected on the first attempt. Another key thing to note on this time frame in the MACD is the histogram, which appears to be showing sell momentum waning. Nokia attempted a bullish cross in the July 2020 2 month candle but was rejected, and is now yet again attempting another bullish cross. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Aisde from Nokia currently residing above the 20 year trend line, there are also multiple price patterns/signals presenting themselves. After Nokia dropped from the .5 Fib retracement, the price has been printing a potential bear flag. Nokia did however catch strong buying support on the 0.886 Fib, which is typically the absolute last stand for bulls to regain control. That Fib also coincided with the Covid market-wide selloff in March of 2020. After Nokia broke back above the 20 year trend line, it was also able to break a mid-term diagonal resistance. This resistance has been tested successfully for sure once, although most people would argue the gap was also potentially indicative of a successful support test. Within this bear flag, however, there are 3 different price structures indicating potential bullish pressure building. I do not hold much weight with price patterns anymore however as I have been burned one too many times by them, and/or fake breaks of them. Still, I find that for analytical purposes I may as well mention them just in case. First, a giant potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this complete, the measured target for this would be approximately $2 higher than the point where it breaks above the neckline. Technically, this pattern alone could quite easily propel Nokia above my forecasted target of $7 depending on if the neckline is tilted upwards or is the 0.618 Fib. And again, only if the pattern is legit. Second, a much smaller potential inverted head and shoulders pattern. Should this one complete, the measured target for it is approximately $1 higher than the point of breakout above the neckline. The measured target for this particular one to complete would be roughly the 0.5 Fib, which resides at $5.18. Interestingly, both of these POTENTIAL inverted head and shoulders pattern started at the 0.618 Fib. The bigger one completing would propel Nokia out of the current bear flag which would be a major buy signal to traders. There is also a potential ascending triangle, with an apex around August 2021. A long term downtrend channel. A long term potential falling wedge with fake breakouts to the upside and downside. I think this is more likely to be a downtrend channel than anything but I guess you never know. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - In conclusion, Nokia at this point can go pretty much anywhere. What I have outlined in this idea is strongly bias to the bullish side. The fundamentals for Nokia are currently very neutral. There is a new CEO who previously worked for Sony Ericsson, who has outlined a new roadmap for the company as a whole. They have positive cash flow and a low debt to asset ratio. They did however have a drop in overall revenue. Also, the outstanding amount of shares for Nokia is very high. Due to this, a lot of traders believe it would take a seriously large catalyst for Nokia to break its current downtrend/range. I may be early on this trade, but I do believe that within the next 6 months, Nokia could make a serious turnaround. At this point, I believe that anything below current share price is a strong buy. The leap contracts for Nokia are also dirt cheap, according to multiple postings on social media. Time will tell. I will leave you with this food for thought: When in doubt.. Zoom out. Original idea:
NYSE:NOKLong
by UnknownUnicorn5836947
14
$ENOR is NOKUSDENOR is a more liquid equivalent to NORW-- there is enough volume to trade it hour-by-hour rather than day-by-day. I was curious why neither ETF followed the Oslo Boers exactly and... apparently the arbitrage is from its correlation to the currency pairing NOKUSD. So really Norway ETFs' strength comes from oil strength and DXY weakeness, both of which aren't happening at the moment. Moving up in an ascending channel... only a matter of days until we break.
CBOE:ENORShort
by sdeutsch95
Possible Triple Bottom and Bullish DivergenceNOKUSD was in a multi-year uptrend before COVID disrupted things. We have now regressed far below where we were previously, and there is reason to think that a turnaround may be in store. At minimum, we are likely to catch a small bounce here. 1. Bullish divergence on volume-based indicators. With each of these three tests of 8.20, the OBV and Chaikin Money Flow have trended higher. This suggests that at least a small bounce is likely. 2. Longer term: NOK was in an uptrend prior to COVID, and this trend existed since 2011. 3. 2011 actually marked the end of a multi-decade downtrend, which was briefly disrupted by the 2008 recession, after which the prior trend resumed. Might the same thing happen this time, but in reverse? 4. The S&P 500 is starting to look overextended in an historically bearish seasonal period. A selloff would likely send the dollar higher against everything. 5. Lastly, and this probably isn't a good basis for a trade by itself, which is why I put it last, but you may have history on your side in this trade: “An analysis of the time-trend of U.S. dollar values over the course of a presidential term indicates that the U.S. dollar tends to start at a high value for Republican presidents and then depreciates, while the opposite pattern is true for Democrats.” walton.uark.edu
Long
by dtingbudong
NOKUSD vs Crude Oil - will this divergence compress soon?Norwegian Krone is highly correlated to Crude Oil futures (front month), but over the last year it appears to diverge. NOK/USD has continued to slide while Crude stabilised. This could be due to strengthening Dollar, and the low oil prices indicating weaker future economic growth. The blue trend line marks multi-year highs. With prices touching this trend, combined with a relative underperformance of NOK/USD to Crude, this could see NOK/USD break higher, and soon. An interesting pair to watch no less, particularly when there is divergence as seen at the end of 2017, which provides an attractive spread trade of Long NOK/USD Short Crude.
Long
by MVedra
USD/NOK viewI suggest that traders short the Norwegian Krone against the USD for the following reasons: /dx has broken out of its ~2yr consolidation pattern amid Trump's fiscal stimulus promises and subsequent repricing of the Fed's hiking cycle in anticipation of higher US growth and inflation. NOK remains highly vulnerable to /cl as >50% of Norway's exports are energy-related (34% = crude petroleum and 25% = petroleum gases). Potential OPEC-inspired oil volatility and vulnerability (if a strong cut, or any cut at all, fails to materalise, which is my personal base case given recent rhetoric from Saudi Arabia; namely words to the effect of, "balancing can occur without cuts") will weigh heavily on NOK, sending this pair much higher. On a more long-term level, oil and gas companies in Norway have drastically cut spending forecasts for 2017, deepening what was already a record reduction in offshore investment. Main risk to the trade is OPEC cutting production significantly (or at least creating that perception to markets). In this case, I would use the opportunity to buy USDNOK at lower levels as any material increase in oil prices (to around $55-$60 on a 'strong cut') will enable US shale producers to "come online" (with lag, of course), aiding supply and sending /cl to near current levels again. It is very difficult to envisage a world in which oil comfortably sustains above $60 under current conditions. A token OPEC cut will not change this, I do not believe. $DB is gunning for 9.05000 by Q2 '17; $GS and $MS also want around 9.00000 with time. I personally look to buy this pair on dips.
Long
by jamiegleave
Highest probability FX trade right nowAs of October 1st 2016, the Norwegian Krona against the Swiss Frank is unquestionably one of the highest probability trades I currently see in the FX market, if not the highest probability trade on a weekly closing basis. TradingView is not giving me permission to set-up a NOK/CHF cross, so instead I set-up the USDNOK/USDCHF, which neutralizes the US dollar in the equation. Attached below is the chart of CADCHF, which likely signals some form of a bottom. I analyze the Canadian dollar because of its correlation with crude oil, since the correlation with oil and Norway is high as well. Looking at the NOKCAD, I see a potential breakdown in the Cad against the Nok, but far too much pressure in the $6 level to be really interested in the trade. Now let's look at the Russian Ruble - also highly correlated with oil. For now, Rubles are presenting a stronger outlook than Cad dollars - see third chart below. So let's look at NOK/RUB - the cross between these two will likely be in a long term consolidation. Lastly, let's look at Norway's currency against gold. The Norwegian Krona just broke a major weekly pennant. CADCHF Norway against Canada Russia against Canada Norway against Russia Norway against Gold
Short
by Lanmar
2
NOK: Norwegian krone is a long against the yenWe have a nice pair opportunity (and perhaps a great *USD trade) in the NOK crosses. NOK shows excellent relative strength, and has a lot of catching up to do with the Yen, which makes it ideal to long NOKJPY or long NOKUSD and short JPYUSD, risking 1 weekly/monthly ATR per side. The NOKUSD trade is to long at market or on dips, and risk a drop under today's open, if you're interested in taking it, targets on chart (upper Brexit Key level). See comments for the NOKJPY chart (my signals group clients arealready long for one day). Check out my updated track record here: pastebin.com If interested in my real time whatsapp alerts and swing trading newsletter, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year. Cheers! Ivan Labrie Link to Tim West's chatroom: www.tradingview.com We discuss setups like this often there. Feel free to stop by and subscribe to his indicator pack. If you have any questions ask. Risk disclaimer: My analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance0.25% on such information.
Long
by IvanLabrie