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How much will overbought Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector Fall? XLPThe Consumer Non-Cyclical Sector SPDR Fund has been in a bull trend since the end of the financial crisis. An internal and stronger bull trend has taken shape since shortly after the US elections in November 2016. However, this fund is currently near its long-term resistance point which will most likely lead to one of two future moves. The fund could break above this long-term resistance and continue strong gains, or it could reverse course and at the very least return to its support established since the election. Below I have laid out the reasons and levels to which the fund may dip while it continues its overall bull trend. When we take a look at technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 80.8116. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. Currently the RSI is overbought. The fund could rise over the next few days or begin its descent now. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The true strength index (TSI) is currently 21.5180. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI is moving up. The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.3859 and the negative is at 0.5248. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. These indicators are at extreme levels indicating a pending reversal of the fund is imminent. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. The stochastic oscillator K value is 97.0441 and D value is 94.0369. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The stochastic is currently well overbought, but the D value has not overtaken the K value, meaning the fund could produce gains for one or two more days at the most before ultimately turning downward. I will provide further analysis below when this indicator aligns at maximums with two of the other technical indicators. On three occasions since September 2013, the RSI, positive VI, and stochastic have been at similarly extreme levels at the same time. All three occasions led to drops for the fund. In September 2013 the fund dropped 5.25% in 13 trading days. In October 2013 the fund lost 2.91% over the next 35 trading days. Eventually the fund dropped more than 7% from the October RSI peak (the bottom occurred at the end of January 2014). The smallest decline was seen in February of this year when the fund declined 1.63% over 22 trading days. A natural decline will occur in our current instance, the main question is how much? Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the downside. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could drop at least 1.63% over the next 25 trading days if not
AMEX:XLP
by StockSignaler
USOIL/ UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL MARKET REVIEW WTI & BRENTIEA Monthly Oil Market Review: -IEA Keeps World Oil Demand Growth Forecast at 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA Downgrades World Oil Demand Growth to 1.2M B/D in 2017 -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Sees Lower Oil Demand Growth on Dimmer Macroeconomic Outlook -IEA Says Global Oil Supply Up 800,000 B/D in July on Higher OPEC, Non-OPEC Output -Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016--IEA -Non-OPEC Output Will See Growth of 300,000 B/D in 2017--IEA -OPEC July Output Rose 150,000 B/D to 8-Year High of 33.39M B/D on Saudi, Iraq--IEA -Saudi July Output Hit Record 10.62M B/D, Up 120,000 B/D From June-IEA -IEA Says Kuwait and the UAE Pumped at Their Highest Ever Levels -IEA: Non-OPEC Supplies Output Rose by 550,000 B/D in July, to 56.7M B/D -IEA Says Expects More Subdued Growth in Refining Activity -IEA Says Crude Oil Balance Indicates Hefty Draw in Third Quarter -IEA Says Massive Stock Overhang Keeping Lid On Prices -IEA Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at 3.093B Barrels by End-June
FX:USOIL
by QuantumLogicTrading
3
How to know when stuff are rigged ? NFP, indices, gold price ...August 8, 2016 This is an abstract from my one of my blogs: www.lucky-index-trading.blogspot.com Compare this chart with my previous publication and comments So, from my experience, this is how it worked (and obviously I am merely stating a little portion of the big picture, but so far this "luckily" was enough to help predicting some moves based on correlation). Last Friday's US Non-farm Payroll (NFP - August 5, 2016) was apparently rigged according to some sources. Well, we did not really need to know how the fundamental worked to know the blue print would be "good" and thereby certainly pushing prices up, as the odds for indices to head upward was higher than otherwise. Let me explain. Do you remember the previous article I posted on July 31st, 2016? Yes, the one with the forecast of the CAC. So I was saying that a false breakout from the 4300-4450 range could occur (target: 4600). The CAC 40 did exactly range last week (August 1-5), going from about 4480 to as low as 4293 and now it is back to 4440 at the time I am writing this post. The trading range was perfectly supported by price action, supports / resistances, and so on. But moreover, if was also confirmed by the NFP's result, "fundamentally" pushing up on the CAC and making it soar from 4360 to 4410, therefore confirming the 4300-4450 range as previously stated in article 174 of the blog). Now, the SP500 made a new all-time record, and the Dow Jones soared along with the NASDAQ. What I mean is that it was totally predictable, because no matter what European indices had to go up, technically speaking. So in order to push the markets higher, data had to be manipulated.On the other hand, I made a forecast 2 years ago on Gold (XAUUSD), stating it would go as low as 1080 and then going back to 1367 (see article 118 + related charts). Since gold price reached 1370, it had to pullback (ie. go down). Given that it is for the time being negatively correlated with stock market indices, then if the Dow Jones is up, gold price will decrease. And this is exactly what we wanted since the target of roughly 1350-1367 was reached ! Therefore, from solely using gold price forecast and European price forecast, we could infer that the NFP result would be good, and send American indices to the sky. This is in my sense manipulation, and the bubble will probably burst next year. My take is that indices will globally shift downward in 1 or 2 months. CAC 40, Daily chart (see post from July 31st -> 2016-2018 forecast) -> It exactly did start to range from 4300 to 4450 !
INDEX:CAC40Short
by UnknownUnicorn569872
3
Gold vs Dollarwe have a minor and a major channel in daily. if we break the minor channel ( break the red line ) heading upwards, we can buy till we head to the top of the major channel and watch for price action there, we will either break the major channel confirming medium term buy or we test the end of the channel one more time heading down. or we break the minor channel to the downside and inside of going up first, we go down to the end of the major channel before heading back up again. remember that this pair is bullish so upside is in favour in general.
FX:XAUUSD
by Tellzy
USOIL UKOIL: IEA MONTHLY OIL REPORT - BREXIT; DEMAND > SUPPLY 17The IEA Oil Market Report was largely in line with OPEC's assesment yesterday - Non OPEC output was seen falling in 2016 by 900,000 B/D - However, they differed on the 2017 perspective with 2017 expectations from the IEA forecasting a modest growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017. Opec Output however rose to an eight year high up 400,000 B/D in June at 3.21M B/D on the back of Saudia and Nigerian growth. On the margin the IEA actually came out on the margin relatively bearish for the oil market and its future - citing a global oil supply increase at +600,000 B/D to 96m in June - with Non OPEC seen at 55.9m B/D. Nonetheless, the IEA went out of their way to highlight that the oil market had made an extraordinary recovery from "Market Surplus" to "near balance" in Q2 2016. The IEA Uped the World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 (up +0.1M B/D), whilst seeing World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017. On the margin it is unsure what the net forces are for 2016 and 2017's demand-supply balance will be, though a 1.4m B/D in 2016 increase in global oil demand growth outstrips the Non-opec 200,000 B/D increase in supply foretasted - this is medium term bullish for Oil . They remained on the fence with Brexit concerns which imo is a positive positioning for the oil market given there should be a negative bias Other notable statements were "There is still an ominous investment gap building up in the oil industry that might, depending on how quickly today's record high oil stocks are eroded, create the conditions for sharply higher prices over the medium term." and "Our underlying message that the market is heading to balance remains on track, but the modest fall back in oil prices in recent days to closer to $45/bbl is a reminder that the road ahead is far from smooth." - these comments in mind, traders should use this information to understand that volatility is likely to be higher so TP/SL should be adjusted accordingly to reduce the margin of error. Personally, i think further USD strength may continue to dull the oil market. IEA Monthly Oil Report Analysis: -IEA: Global Oil Supply Rose 600,000 B/D to 96M B/D in June -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Seen Falling by 900,000 B/D in 2016 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Will See Modest Growth of 200,000 B/D in 2017 -IEA: Non-OPEC Output Rose in June by 205,000 B/D to 55.9M B/D on Partial Recovery in Canada -IEA: OPEC June Output Up 400,000 B/D to Eight-Year High of 33.21M B/D on Rise in Saudi, Nigeria -IEA: Says Saudi Arabia Ramped Up Output to Near-Record Rate of 10.45M B/D in June -IEA: Says Iranian Output Rose to 3.66M B/D in June, up 50,000 B/D From May -IEA: Says OECD Commercial Stocks Stood at Record 3,074 Million Barrels by End-May -IEA: Market Showing Extraordinary Transformation From Major Surplus to Near Balance in 2Q -IEA: Says High Oil stocks Are Threat to Recent Stability of Prices -IEA: Ups World Oil Demand Growth Forecast to 1.4M B/D in 2016 -IEA: Sees World Oil Demand Growing by 1.3M B/D in 2017 -IEA: Says Middle East Oil Output Rose to Record High of 31.5M B/D in June -IEA: Says Hard to Draw Conclusions About Brexit -IEA: Says High Oil Stocks Pose Threat to Price Stability www.iea.org
FX:USOILLong
by QuantumLogicTrading