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NFP Data: Can it Sway Election? Just days before the U.S. heads to the polls, the last employment report before Election Day will offer a snapshot of hiring and unemployment, key factors in a race where the economy remains top of mind for voters. Ordinarily, monthly jobs data provides a clearer gauge of economic conditions. However, analysts project that last month’s hiring figures could be skewed by multiple disruptions. Hurricanes Helene and Milton, alongside a prolonged strike by Boeing machinists, are expected to have temporarily trimmed employment by up to 100,000 jobs. Gold could emerge as one of the most responsive assets. Following a surge to record highs, bullion slipped as some investors opted to lock in gains and pushed the RSI into oversold levels. Technically, XAU/USD is potentially still bullish.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme: - The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short. - Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction. - With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction. Technical theme: - DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs. - If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance. - On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYShort
by DatTong
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
Tonight's NF - XAU message board peaked or changed trendsGold rose to around $2,460 per ounce on Friday, approaching record highs and on track for a weekly gain, driven by recent weak US economic data that bolstered expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Thursday's data showed US manufacturing activity contracted more than anticipated in July, with employment hitting levels not seen since 2020. Additionally, jobless claims rose to 249K, the highest in nearly a year. Investors are now awaiting the monthly jobs report later in the day for further insights. Meanwhile, the escalating risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East is enhancing gold's appeal as a safe haven. Markets are closely watching Iran's response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which follows the killing of Hezbollah's top commander in a Beirut airstrike. ❓NF - NEW ATH XAU - market expectations 📈SELL GOLD: 2498 - 2501 ➡️SL: 2508 ➡️TP1: 2483 ➡️TP2: 2467 ➡️TP3: 2442 📉BUY GOLD: 2420 - 2418 ➡️SL 2412 ➡️TP1: 2433 ➡️TP2: 2442 ➡️TP3: 2467 GOOD LUCK EVERYONE👍
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Scalper_Ananda
Strifor || EURUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Before the NFP , we adhere to the buy priority and scenarios that we've outlined at the beginning of the week. The likelihood of the US dollar's main competitors strengthening is high. However, we are talking more about short-term strengthening today. Over the longer term, the US dollar is likely to resume its global growth. For the euro , both scenarios have been activated, and today we do not consider growth above 1.08000 . Those who are not yet in the trade can consider entering through pending orders before the publication of labor market data. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
USD Dollar is Performing a Retracement back to $104.5! 💵The recent movements in the USD Dollar have caught the attention of investors and forex traders alike. As the USD Dollar retraces back to $104.5, there are several advantages for both stock investment and forex trading that can be capitalized upon. Let's explore them in point form with emojis: Advantages of Stock Investment: 1. 💼 Diversification: Investing in stocks denominated in USD allows you to diversify your investment portfolio. By allocating a portion of your investment in stocks, you can potentially reduce risk and increase the potential for higher returns. 2. 💸 Dividend Income: Many stocks, especially those listed on reputable exchanges, offer dividends. Dividend income can provide a steady stream of passive income, which can be reinvested or used to cover expenses. 3. 📈 Capital Appreciation: A retracement in the USD Dollar can positively impact the performance of US-based companies. As the value of the USD Dollar declines, it can boost the competitiveness of American exports, leading to higher revenues and potentially driving up stock prices. 4. 🌍 Global Exposure: Investing in stocks allows you to gain exposure to international markets. If the USD Dollar retracement is accompanied by a strengthening of other currencies, it can create favorable conditions for multinational companies, potentially leading to increased profits. Advantages of Forex Trading: 1. 💰 Profit from Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Forex trading provides an opportunity to profit from fluctuations in exchange rates. As the USD Dollar retraces, traders can take advantage of this movement by selling USD against other currencies, potentially earning profits from the price difference. 2. ⏱ Liquidity and Flexibility: The forex market is the most liquid financial market globally, meaning that traders can enter and exit positions quickly. This liquidity allows for greater flexibility in trading strategies, enabling traders to respond promptly to market developments. 3. 🌎 Global Market Access: Forex trading offers access to a vast array of currency pairs, allowing traders to participate in global economic trends. The retracement in the USD Dollar presents opportunities not only in major currency pairs but also in cross-currency pairs, opening up a wide range of trading possibilities. 4. ⚡️ Leveraged Trading: Forex trading allows for leveraged positions, meaning traders can control larger positions with a smaller amount of capital. This leverage amplifies potential profits, but it's important to note that it also increases the risk. Traders should exercise caution and use risk management strategies when utilizing leverage. In conclusion, the retracement of the USD Dollar back to $104.5 presents advantages for both stock investment and forex trading. Stock investment offers diversification, dividend income, capital appreciation, and global exposure, while forex trading provides opportunities to profit from exchange rate fluctuations, liquidity, global market access, and leveraged trading. As with any investment or trading activity, it's crucial to conduct thorough research, implement risk management strategies, and stay updated with market trends to make informed decisions. Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. It is important to consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions. The financial markets, including stocks and forex, are complex and volatile. Predicting the performance of the USD Dollar, or any other investment, is challenging. While the advantages of stock investment and forex trading during a USD Dollar retracement were mentioned earlier, it is crucial to understand the associated risks. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Leverage in forex trading can amplify profits but also magnify losses. Traders should exercise caution and understand risk management techniques. In conclusion, the information provided is a general overview. Investing and trading carry risks, and no strategy ensures success. Seek guidance from a qualified financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICT_Trader_SB
Strifor || GOLD-NFPPreferred direction: SELL Comment: For gold , we previously gave two setups for sell, and one of them is already in work (scenario №2) . However, against the background of the upcoming potential volatility (NFP) , as well as the short-term weakening of the US dollar , most likely, it is at the very moment of the release of data on the US labor market that we will see a new maximum for gold in the region of 2350 . It is in this area that we are considering an additional level for entry into short (scenario №1) . This scenario is the most likely in the near future. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
5
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFPPreferred direction: BUY Comment: The British pound also remains on the buy list. Here, the expected movement for the current NFP is the same as for the euro . Growth is expected towards the level of 1.27000 , where local resistance will occur. The target is not set above this area (quite an aggressive option). But one can consider potential sales when generating a signal. We do not exclude the possibility that a potential downward reversal will already occur at the beginning of next week. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || BTCUSD-Mid-term viewPreferred direction: Neutral Comment: Bitcoin , like gold , continues to break records, and most likely, in the short term, just like gold , a new high will be recorded. In the very near future, perhaps even during the weekend, we will already see the price of the coin at the level of $70 000 and even higher. However, it is unlikely that the instrument will continue to grow because of the large liquidation of market participants who want to sell “at the highs,” and this, in turn, is fuel for growth. Therefore, most likely, an influx of market buyers is now beginning, against the backdrop of which large players will be able to fix part of their volume. Thus, a more likely scenario in the medium term is the formation of a balance after a preliminary update of the maximum at the level of $70 000 . Here, as part of the update of the maximum, we will consider two scenarios that are presented on the chart. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Strifor
3
Strifor || USDJPY-NFP SetupPreferred direction: BUY Comment: Despite the local strengthening of the Japanese yen , this currency pair is still considered more favorable to the buyer, especially in the long term. All events within the specified prospects will develop around level 150 and above. As for shorter-term prospects, it is also unlikely that the instrument will go down towards level 144 , where the next significant support is located.  On the eve of the NFP , we are considering a strengthening of the US dollar , and a return of the price to the level of 150 . It should be noted that the deal is not for one day, so today on the NFP , buyers will most likely only lay down this growth, and we will see its continuation next week. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Strifor
1
Strifor || AUDUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL Comment: The Australian dollar is also expected to undergo a downward correction, as we suppose. Against the background of today's NFP , the instrument may even grow towards the level of 0.66659 , but in the medium term, it is unlikely that the buyer will be able to gain a foothold. Perhaps not today, then at the beginning of next week, against the backdrop of depleted purchasing power, the price will tend to the level of 0.65500. There are assumptions about a fall to support 0.65010 , where a very large accumulation of long positions is located, and a re-test of this area very much suggests itself. However, this is another story, for now, we limit ourselves to the target at the level of 0.65500 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL Comment: As part of the upcoming strengthening of the American currency , as well as the upcoming NFP , we expect a fall in the GBPUSD currency pair. At the moment, the process of eliminating sellers is being completed, and in the very near future, the market will begin to actively buy at market prices. Thus, this will provide an opportunity for the limit buyer to fix long positions and drop the price. In addition, the area near the level of 1.28000 is a serious obstacle for the buyer, and within the framework of a long-term retest of the indicated resistance, it is most likely that the instrument will go for a correction. Scenario №2 assumes more medium-term parameters of the trade, if the preliminary upward movement turns out to be significantly greater than what we expect. We place the downside target at the level of 1.27100 , slightly above the liquid area at the level of 1.27000. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Strifor || EURUSD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL Comment: Our previous setups for currency pairs worked out perfectly, especially EURUSD . On the eve of the NFP , as well as for gold, we expect a fall in the euro. At the time of publication, the instrument may strengthen towards the level of 1.10000 ( scenario №2 ), so one should count on this in any case. At the moment, scenario №1 is being considered more, but it must be said that both scenarios will be at work. That is, we are working in the format of "step-by-step" accumulating positions. We place the target for this trade at the level of 1.08500 , there is a potential for a fall to 1.08000 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GOLD-NFP SetupPreferred direction: SELL Comment: By the end of the week, all long trades on metals have been fixed, and on the eve of the NFP , we expect a fall in gold . It should be noted that a slight increase is still possible even without the NFP data, where, against the background of volatility, the price may rise above the current new historical maximum. However, this growth is nothing. Therefore, we're coming to NFP with two scenarios that differ in the range of potential false upward movement. Most likely, we won’t see the price above $2200 . Both scenarios are on the chart, where the overall target for the fall is located at the level of $2120. It should also be said that there is no point in delaying sales, since the medium-term buyer is strong. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-NFP❗️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: After a short-term successful growth, longs for gold were also fixed and now, like for the main currency pairs, we expect a fall. Here everything is a little simpler and the main idea is to update local maxima as well. The first scenario assumes an approximate reversal at the level of 2070 , and the second - at the level of 2080 . But it cannot be ruled out that the price will fall right at the time of publication of data on NFP without the expected update of the highs. To do this, you can place a pending order below the price in front of the NFP itself. The approximate fall target is 2030 - 2040. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
3
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-NFP❗️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: We also consider possible sales by pound. Here previous long-positions are completely closed. Before the NFP , we have two main scenarios, similar in nature to the movement as in the EURUSD situation before the NFP . The main idea in both cases is to update the maximum at the level of 1.28000 , and then fall towards the level of 1.26000. One can also consider the level of 1.25000 as a second target. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-NFP❗️Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The long scenario worked out quite quickly, and now before the NFP , most likely you need to count on selling. The market quite sharply rushed into sales due to which it was possible to recover to local highs. For NFP , I will highlight two scenarios, the difference between the first and the second is that in the second it is assumed that the movement will first move down, and then grow with the aim of updating the maximum just above the level of 1.09000 . The target for selling can be located near the level of 1.08000 . Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1
Non-farm payrolls surpriseThe US reported a gain of 353K jobs in January, nearly double the expectations of 180K. On top of upward revisions worth 126K. Wages rose by 0.6%, double the expectations, and YoY they are up 4.5%, smashing estimates of 4.1%. Excellent data meant a straightforward reaction, with minimal reversals and an ongoing extension. The US Dollar is up, Gold is down, and stocks are also down, on fears of higher rates, while ignoring the good news for the economy. I expect the Dollar to remain on the rise for the remainder of the day. Any corrections will have to wait for Monday. Nevertheless, the odds of a rate cut in March are down, and only a dive in inflation could change that notion. In the meantime, the trend is clear.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by dc_analytics
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: For gold , we highlight the short-term scenario in long. Metals , especially gold , resisted the pressure of the US dollar best; here the context for growth is, in principle, prepared. There are two main scenarios for growth and all are aimed at updating short-term highs towards the region 2060-2070. This expected movement will most likely be followed by a downward correction or the formation of a balance for continued growth. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Strifor
1