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Nonfarmpayroll

⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-01/02/2024Preferred direction: BUY Comment: After the Fed meeting, as we expected, the US currency strengthened based on the results of the press conference and comments from the regulator. However, the growth of the dollar is already approaching its end and most likely now we need to take a closer look at medium-term purchases. We are now considering two main long scenarios. The first option assumes that no particularly large drops are expected yet, the second option suggests, on the contrary, a deeper fall towards the level of 1.06500 . The main recovery target is located at the level of 1.09000. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || GOLD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL Comment: The situation with metals is quite ambiguous, but nevertheless, considering this instrument from a medium-term point of view, most likely the instrument does not intend to grow yet. According to our two short scenarios, we expect a false upward move before the fall. Of course, this is the first more positive scenario for sellers. Here you can only guess and react at the moment. These supposed upward movements can be formulated during the Fed meeting and press conference. The main goal of these sales is the level of 2000 exactly. It should be noted that the downside potential most likely does not end there. Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || GBPUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction : SELL Comment: Just as in the case of the euro, the British pound is also under the target of sales, however, it should be noted that the potential for a fall here is lower than that of the former. We have previously written about selling using this instrument and continue to adhere to this. Today marks the start of a rather busy period of the week, and the main focus of attention is, of course, the Fed and its rhetoric about upcoming policy. Just like for the euro, we highlight two scenarios. The only difference between them is the depth of the supposed false upward movement. The target is common and is at the level of 1.25000 . Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
⚡️Strifor || EURUSD-Fed MeetingPreferred direction: SELL Comment: As before, despite everything, we continue to adhere to sales in euros. The main target for the fall is the level of 1.07000 , which is also relevant before the upcoming Fed meeting. Of course, more attention will be focused on the press-conference and what mood the regulator will show. If the scenario with the ECB repeats, where it indicated a likely rate cut, then of course this will not benefit the American currency. In this case, the instrument will most likely recover to the level of 1.09000 and even try to update local highs near this level. However, if the rhetoric is more hawkish, then of course this will allow the US dollar to remove all leverage and go to 1.07000 and possibly even lower. Here it should be noted that technically and in terms of volumes, everything is on the side of the dollar . Before the Fed meeting and, in fact, a busy day, since we are expecting the release of inflation in Germany and preliminary data on non-farm , we highlight two scenarios for selling the euro , since this is the main direction now. Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Fed Policy Trajectory and Interest Rate OutlookCBOT: Micro 2-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:2YY1! ), Micro 10-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:10Y1! ) and Micro 30-Year Yield ( CBOT_MINI:30Y1! ) The latest US jobs report showed that employers added 216,000 jobs for December while the unemployment rate held at 3.7%, reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That compared with respective market estimates of 170,000 and 3.8%. On Thursday, the BLS will release December’s CPI data. The prevailing market expectation is 0.3% monthly increase for headline CPI, up from 0.1% in November. The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy to support price stability and full employment. New data shows that the US economy is very resilient, and maybe slightly overheated with the upbeat job market. After hiking interest rates 11 times and pausing for 2 times, the Fed now has a dilemma. “To cut, or Not to cut”, this is a trillion-dollar question. In this 3rd installment of new year outlook for major asset classes, I will discuss what opportunities may lie ahead for bonds and interest rate derivatives. FYI: The first writing was a year-end review for metal commodities – Gold, Copper, and Aluminum. If you haven’t read it yet, you may follow the link here: The second writing was New Year outlook for US equities – the benchmark market indexes Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. 2023: what’s the dominating market narrative? Last year, the Fed raised interest rates four times for a total of 100 bps. This was a slower pace comparing to the year before, where we saw seven rates hikes and 400 bps in total. To the surprise of most analysts, businesses continue to expand and hire new workers under tightened credit. Inflation could creep up with higher wages and a strong job market. US stock market rose for most of the year, shaking off bad news along the way. Despite interest rates are 5% higher than two yeas ago, major market indexes reached all-time-high records last December. The S&P 500 gained 23.9% for the year, and the Nasdaq Composite more than doubled that at 53.9%. 2024 Outlook for US Interest Rates Most investors agree that the Fed will cut rates in 2024. But the expectations for the timing and scope vary significantly. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the first rate-cut could occur at the March 20th Fed meeting, with a 69.2% probability. For June 12th, the odds of two or more rate cuts increase to 85.9%. By December 18th, investors expect the Fed Funds rate to fall between 1% to 2% lower than the current 5.25-5.50% range, with a 97.9% odds (Data as of January 7th). (Link: www.cmegroup.com) Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions. Current bond prices reflect the market expectations of 5-8 rate cuts in 2024. Lower yields, higher prices. The January 2nd CFTC Commitments of Traders report (COT) shows that “Leveraged Funds” hold the following open positions on CBOT interest rate futures: • Fed Funds: 224,772 longs and 489,204 shorts • 2Y Treasury: 775,882 longs and 2,266,563 shorts • 5Y Treasury: 844,600 longs and 2,821,682 shorts • 10Y Treasury: 285,598 longs and 775,882 shorts • 30Y Treasury: 79,124 longs and 497,636 shorts The overwhelmingly Net short positions indicate that the “Smart Money” considers the rate cuts being oversold. Why do they want to short Treasury futures? If the Fed keeps the interest rates higher for longer, or implements fewer rate cuts, Treasury yields would be higher than the current price indicated. Higher yields, lower prices. Shorting Treasury futures expresses the viewpoint that Treasury bond prices would fall. In my opinion, the bond market tends to tell a better story, compared to the stock market. The institutional nature of most participants allows the bond market to be less prone to irrational hypes and price bubbles. Trading with CBOT Micro Yield Futures Micro Treasury Yield Futures are low-cost instruments to participate in the bond market. Micro yields are quoted by treasury yield directly. Higher yields, higher futures prices. This would ease the burden from working the complicated price and yield conversion. Last Friday, the February contract of Micro 2Y Yield futures (2YYG4) were settled at 4.186%. Each contract has a notional value of 1,000 index points, or $4,186 at current price. To acquire 1 contract, a trader is required to deposit an initial margin of $340. The February Micro 10Y Yield (10YG4) was settled at 4.008%. Notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,008. Initial margin is $320. The February Micro 30Y Yield (30YG4) was settled at 4.221%. N notional value is 1,000 index points or $4,221. Initial margin is $290. My reasoning: We just had a hotter than expected jobs report for December. If CPI data shows inflation rebound this week, the whole Fed cut narrative could be derailed. The January 30th Fed meeting could have a surprised rate decision, or a more hawkish Fed statement. To replicate the short bond futures strategy used by Leveraged Funds, investors could long the micro yield futures to express the same view of higher yields. Initial margins for 10Y Micro Yield are $320, compared to $2,125 for 10Y treasury notes futures (ZN). Hypothetically, if the yield goes up by 25 bps, a long Micro Yield futures position would gain $250 (= 0.25 x 1000). This would be the same for 2Y, 5Y, 10Y and 30Y micro yield futures, as they all have a 1,000-point multiplier. On the other hand, if investors continue to ignore the Fed, as they have often been in the past two years, short futures will lose money. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
⚡️Strifor || AUDUSD-05/01/2024 (NFP)Preferred direction: BUY Comment: The US dollar's main competitors are likely preparing to strengthen in the short term. The news background can contribute to this. The focus is, of course, on NFP . The market may not yet have recovered sufficiently after the holidays, and it is the NFP that can finally do this. Technically, the AUDUSD currency pair is looking long, probably even the best at the moment. The price has entered the limit buyer area, and the likelihood that he will defend this area is high. We are considering two scenarios, and, given today’s NFP , it is best to use it immediately with a general stop loss below support 0.66659 . It is necessary to take into account that scenario 2 is the formation of a false breakout, so stop loss should be taken with a margin. We place the growth target at 0.68399. Thank you for like and share your views!
Long
by Viktor_strifor_analyst
1
Pre NFP Livestream January 5th (NFP) DXY: NFP data above 170k close to 200k, could climb to 103.50 NZDUSD: Buy 0.6245 SL 25 TP 50 (DXY Weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6650 SL 20 TP 95 (Hesistation at 0.66) (DXY strength) USDJPY: Buy 145.25 SL 50 TP 120 (DXY Strength) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2730 SL 20 TP 85 (DXY Weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0880 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCHF: Buy 0.8550 SL 25 TP 100 (DXY Strength) USDCAD: Buy 1.3410 SL 20 TP 70 (DXY Strength & CAD Weakness) Gold: Test and reject 2048 to trade down to 2032
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Decoding the NFP Report: Trading Strategies.In the dynamic world of forex trading, strategies that cater to the ever-changing market conditions are invaluable. While fundamental analysis is widely embraced in stock trading, its effectiveness in the forex market is often questioned. Unlike the stock market, where financial statements can significantly impact individual stocks, the forex market is influenced by a myriad of factors, including central bank policies and political leadership. In this article, we explore the limitations of fundamental analysis in the forex market and delve into an intriguing momentum trading strategy centered around a key macroeconomic indicator—the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP). This strategy harnesses the unpredictable yet powerful market reactions triggered by the release of NFP data, offering traders a unique opportunity to capitalize on momentum. Fundamental Analysis in Forex: Fundamental analysis, a staple in stock trading, faces challenges in the forex market due to its limited impact on currency exchange rates. Forex stability relies not only on economic indicators but also on the nuanced decisions of central banks and political leadership. Despite these challenges, successful forex trading doesn't necessitate rigid adherence to a specific scenario. Traders can leverage price momentum and increased liquidity to execute effective impulse trading strategies. Non-Farm Payrolls Trading Strategy: The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) trading strategy capitalizes on the release of crucial U.S. economic data—the Non-Farm Payrolls report. This multicurrency strategy is applicable to all currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar, allowing traders to explore numerous assets simultaneously. The primary objective of this strategy is to capture price momentum, making it adaptable to various time frames. Non-Farm Payrolls: Predictable Unpredictability: The NFP report, published every first Friday of the month, serves as a linchpin for speculative traders. It provides insights into the strength and growth of the U.S. economy, consequently influencing the value of the U.S. dollar. The report focuses on the non-agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to the nation's GDP. The sheer importance of the NFP report lies in its ability to reflect the health of the U.S. economy. The release of this data sparks maximum market volatility, with prices witnessing rapid fluctuations, often ranging from 100-200 points in a short period. However, interpreting the aftermath of the news poses a unique challenge due to the simultaneous release of unemployment statistics, which can sometimes contradict each other. Despite the inherent unpredictability, the NFP trading strategy capitalizes on the strong price spikes triggered by the news release. While predicting post-news price behavior may be challenging, the strategy offers a systematic approach to navigate and profit from the volatile market conditions that follow the NFP announcement. Rules of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Trading Strategy: Stay Informed with an Economic Calendar: Use a reliable economic calendar to stay informed about upcoming NFP releases. The economic calendar will help you track the scheduled date and time of the NFP report. Check for News Release Postponements: Understand that postponements of data releases are common in economic calendars. Monitor the calendar regularly to stay updated on any changes to the scheduled release time of the NFP report. Utilize a Trusted Economic Calendar: Choose a reputable economic calendar platform to ensure accurate and timely information. The provided link www.tradingview.com can be a valuable resource for tracking economic events. Prepare for High Volatility: Recognize that the release of the NFP report triggers significant market volatility. Prepare for rapid price movements and be cautious about entering trades during the initial moments following the release. Focus on the Non-Agricultural Sector Employment Data: Prioritize the non-agricultural sector employment data within the NFP report. This indicator is crucial for gauging the strength of the U.S. economy and can have a substantial impact on currency pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Monitor Unemployment Statistics: Simultaneously track unemployment statistics released alongside the NFP report. While the primary focus is on non-agricultural employment, an understanding of unemployment trends can provide additional context for market reactions. Be Cautious of Contradictory Data: Acknowledge that data within the NFP report, especially non-agricultural employment and unemployment figures, may occasionally present contradictory signals. Exercise caution during such instances, as market predictability diminishes. Wait for Initial Volatility to Subside: Post NFP release, wait for the initial surge in volatility to subside before considering trade entries. Initial reactions can be impulsive, and waiting allows for a more informed decision-making process. Consider Multiple Currency Pairs: Since the NFP report influences the U.S. dollar, the strategy can be applied to various currency pairs involving the dollar. Explore multiple pairs simultaneously to identify the most favorable trading opportunities. Implement Risk Management: Prioritize risk management strategies to protect your trading capital. Set stop-loss orders and determine the appropriate position size based on your risk tolerance and account size. Practice on Demo Accounts: Before implementing the NFP trading strategy in live markets, practice on demo accounts to familiarize yourself with the dynamics of the strategy and refine your execution. Continuous Learning and Adaptation: Stay informed about changes in market conditions and continuously adapt your strategy. The forex market evolves, and traders need to adjust their approaches based on ongoing developments. By adhering to these rules, traders can enhance their effectiveness when employing the Non-Farm Payrolls trading strategy and navigate the unique challenges posed by this high-impact economic event. Traders often seek strategies to capitalize on this volatility, and one popular approach is the Pending Orders strategy. In this article, we'll explore the intricacies of the Pending Orders strategy , shedding light on its advanced nature and its application by both novice and experienced traders. 1 ) Pending Orders Strategy: Set Buy Stop and Sell Stop Orders: Minutes before the NFP publication, set two pending orders: Buy Stop and Sell Stop. These orders are strategically placed 25-30 points away from the current price to avoid simultaneous triggering due to heightened volatility. Manage Triggered Orders: When the price reacts to the news release, triggering one of the pending orders, promptly delete the other as a non-operational scenario. This prevents both orders from activating simultaneously. As observed in this image, during the latest NFP event on Friday, December 8, 2023, the price exhibited a robust bearish impulse immediately after the report release at 5:30 pm. This triggered our sell stop pending order, shifting our trade into a profitable position. Following the bearish movement, the strategy aims to close the buy stop position (the opposite direction). At this juncture, traders should take proactive measures to manage the open position. Stop Loss Considerations: Place a Stop Loss in the opposite order or opt not to set it at all, provided the second pending order remains intact to limit potential losses. This ensures that the remaining order acts as a safeguard against adverse market movements. Trailing Stop for Profit Maximization: Implement a Trailing Stop to secure profits. Continuously adjust the Trailing Stop as the price advances, allowing you to capitalize on the maximum price momentum. This dynamic approach helps lock in gains while navigating the evolving market conditions. As depicted in the image, the price, after experiencing a bearish movement, rebounds upward. What could be the reason behind this? The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report assesses the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous month. For this specific event, the forecasted unemployment rate was 3.9%. However, the actual percentage revealed in the report was 3.7%, indicating a lower number of individuals unemployed and actively seeking employment in the preceding month. This positive deviation from the forecast serves as a favorable signal for the USD, prompting an upward movement in its value following the event. In currency markets, an 'actual' percentage lower than the 'forecast' is generally considered beneficial for the respective currency. By the way, Short-term trades had the opportunity to secure a few pips in gains after the activation of the Sell Stop order. Strategy N.2 Meanwhile, in this other image, I have marked a vertical line at the recent NFP event. Additionally, I've incorporated a 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) to illustrate the short-term trend. After the release of this significant economic news, you can observe an increase in volatility. This could serve as a component of a monthly strategy where the release of such news acts as a trigger. This second scenario or strategy, especially for beginners, is considered much safer. By analyzing the NFP report results, understanding economic dynamics, and gaining insights into the potential continuation of the trend or a possible pause for a reversal, traders can make informed decisions. In conclusion, it's essential to backtest the presented strategies and conduct a forward backtest in a demo account. Your thorough understanding and application of these strategies are crucial. Thank you for taking the time to read my article.
Education
by FOREXN1
3
Macro Monday 19~Nonfarm Payrolls Macro Monday 19 Total Non-Farm Payrolls: Pre-Recession Observations What is Non-Farm Payroll? The nonfarm payroll measures the number of workers in the U.S. includes 80% of US workers. The figures exclude farm workers (Nonfarm) and workers in several other job classifications such as military and non-profit employees. Data on nonfarm payrolls is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and it is included in the monthly Employment Situation report (the “Employment Report”) which includes two surveys, the Household Survey, and the Establishment Survey. Nonfarm Payroll is included in the latter the Establishment Survey. The Establishment Survey gathers data from approximately 122,000 nonfarm businesses and government agencies for some 666,000 work sites and about one-third of all payroll workers. Anyone on the payroll of a surveyed business during that reference week, including part-time workers and those on paid leave, is included in the count used to produce an estimate of total U.S. nonfarm payrolls The Full Employment Report is released by the BLS on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET and reflects the previous month's data. The Chart ▫️ The Chart highlights the last four recessions (red shaded areas) ▫️ The aim of the chart is to identify what Non-Farm Payroll movement occurred prior to each recession (in the blue shaded areas) so that we create a gauge that identifies the early warning signals of such recessions. ▫️ From reviewing the data (illustrated in the data chart), prior to each recession there was a either a confirmed decline in Non-Farm Payrolls prior to recession or an increase of less than 0.0300 mln in Non-Farm Payrolls prior to recession (a tapering off or sideways move). This was evident prior to all four recessions reviewed. Main Findings: 1. The four most recent recessions all seen a decline in Non-Farm Payrolls prior to recession or an increase of less than 0.030 mln in Non-Farm Payrolls prior to recession (the “Signal”). Advance notice of recession was 1 to 12 months depending on recession (final column) 2. Currently we do not have a decline or an increase of less than 0.030 mln in Non-Farm Payrolls thus suggesting we do not have an advance recession warning triggering at present. 3. From a review of the data chart we are now aware that a pre-recession signal can trigger and provide us with 1 months advance notice or 12 months advance notice. In the event the parameters of number 1 above are met to provide a Signal, we can then add this chart/metric as a recession warning chart. Breakdown of Each Recession Signal (signal defined in 1 above): ▫️ The 1990 recession gave us a 1 month advance warning of recession. ▫️ The 2000 recession provided 2 advance warnings (2 & 3 in the chart), one signal gave us a 9 month heads up and the other a 3 month advance notice. ▫️ Similarly, the GFC 2007 recession provided 2 advance warnings (4 & 5 in the chart), one gave us 5 month advance warning, and the second was the signal the recession had started. ▫️ COVID-19 provided a 12 month advance warning with a decline registered from Jan – Feb in 2019. Side Note: Interestingly this has some alignment with last week’s chart on Durable goods. In Feb 2019 one year before the COVID-19 Crash the Durable Goods Moving Average provided an advanced sell/recession signal, and whilst the S&P500 did rally c.13.5% after the signal over the subsequent 12 months, the S&P500 ultimately fell 23% thereafter in a matter of months taking back all those gains and more. Durable Goods is also included in the Establishment Survey so maybe it should come as no surprise that we have synchronicity between both charts on the COVID Crash. The Durable goods chart is also not presently signaling a recession similar to this Nonfarm payroll chart. Both charts appear to demonstrate some resiliency in the employment market (echoing Jerome Powell's sentiment that Employment is tight). False Signals ▫️ Unfortunately there are a number of false signals throughout the chart whereby a decline in payrolls or an increase of less than 0.0300 mln is observed with no follow up recession however most of these false signals are either 1 month in duration or happened in the direct follow up years after the recession slump (when a recession is no longer of concern). Regardless, for this reason the Non-Farm Payrolls Recession Signal cannot be utilized as a standalone indicator, we need other charts and data to help identify the risk of recession. ▫️ Other data should be utilized in conjunction with Non-Farm Payrolls such as the following closely aligned charts all of which are show concerning pre-recession patterns in one way or another; 1. Total Non-Farm Layoffs and Discharges 2. Total Nonfarm Job Openings 3. US Continuing Jobless Claims 1. Total Non-Farm Layoffs and Discharges is signaling a similar trend to the 2007 Great Financial Crisis were there was an initial increase of c.450k (up to the first peak) and eventually a total increase of c.885k from lows to peak recession high. - At present we are trending upwards and had an initial peak of c.507k (it could be the only peak or the initial peak, time will tell). 2. Total Nonfarm Job Openings is signaling a significant decline in job openings much larger than the prior two instances where job opening declines led to recession. - A quick glance at the chart and you can see that we have exceeded the typically level required for recession and exceeded the typical timeframe (using GFC and COVID as reference points). 3. US Continuing Jobless Claims -Prior to the last 8 recessions the average increase in cont. claims was a 424k increase over an average timeframe of 11 months. - Since Sept 2022 Cont. Claims have increased from c.1.3m to 1.818m (an increase of c.518k over a 13.5 month period). We are above both pre-recession averages number of increase and time. In summary: ▫️ Last week’s Durable Goods Chart and this week’s Nonfarm payrolls chart are not triggering a recession warning at present. Both charts appear to emphasize a resilient labor market. ▫️ In stark contrast all three of the additional charts I provided above are incredibly concerning on the recession probability front. In particular Cont. claims , the most concerning of the bunch, is surpassing all pre-recession averages, highlighting that people are finding it harder to recover from a job loss and find a new job. This chart alone would suggest that the labor market is beginning to significantly soften. ▫️ Over the past week we have also had an update to the Purchaser Managers Index which declined further into contractionary territory from 49.0 to 46.7 (est. 49.0). Another signal towards a softening labor market. ▫️ It would be remiss of me not mention that I have seen a Month Over Month (MoM) Chart of the Nonfarm payrolls doing the rounds and it appears to illustrate a softening and slowing of labor conditions (will share in the comments). Such a trend could translate to a gradual tapering and/or decline on our monthly Nonfarm chart over time. When you consider all of the above, you would have to expect a market decline is around the corner but also expect some continued lag before we see it due to those few charts that are not even showing the pre-recession signals, never mind an actual recession signal. The charts holding out are Durable Goods, Nonfarm Payrolls and ill throw in Major Market Index TVC:XMI as a complimentary chart that has not lost its support as of yet. We are also aware that the Dow Theory has confirmed a bear market and has been expecting a market rally before bear trend continuation (the sell into rally). All the same these moving parts can change and pivot so we have to keep an open mind but its hard not to lean very cautiously as it stands. We can keep an eye on these final charts that remain defiant as they may be the final strongholds and provide us with the final warnings in the event of.... As always folks stay nimble out there PUKA
FRED:PAYEMS
by PukaCharts
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Post-NFP Market ReportHi Traders! The NFP announcement was released earlier today, and it came as a shock to the market. The number came in at a staggering 336K, which is almost double the expected number of 171K. With the payrolls number coming out so strongly, this is a sign that the US economy is still strong, and the high demand for the US dollar is expected to continue in the near future. This now puts huge pressure back on the JPY, and the Bank of Japan will surely have to intervene to avoid further Yen weakness. On a technical level, the level to look out for on the USDJPY is 150.000; the market has already reached it this week, and traders will be looking for another test at this level to see if the market can break above it. A break and a close of 150.000, and the only key level above it is the apex level at 151.946, and a break of that, and we will be in record-breaking territory. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
Long
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Pre-NFP Market ReportHi Traders! USDJPY finally reached the psychological 150.000 level this week and is so close to reaching its apex level at 151.946. However, there may be US dollar weakness on the horizon as the US finally ended its streak of consistent positive economic data releases with a worse-than-expected ADP non-farm employment change, which has got traders very nervous about today's NFP announcement. The market has been in an ascending price channel for the past seven months and has reached a very key level at the 150 level. If the US non-farm is worse than expected, we can expect a big pullback towards the 145 area. This is also due to expected JPY strength because of rumours that the Bank of Japan is intervening in the markets to try and prevent further JPY weakness. If the US non-farm is stronger than expected, we can expect a push back above the strong resistance at 150 and move towards the apex level at 151.946, which will be a record-breaking level. The benchmark NFP number to look out for is 171K; this is the expected number. We will be back after the announcement to give a post-NFP market update. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Dollar Strength On Positive NFP Figure Hi Traders! USDJPY's bullish outlook is still in play after a better-than-expected NFP announcement to end the week on a positive note for the US dollar after a bad week of data releases. The number came in at 187k, beating analysts expectations of 169k. USDJPY before the figure was around the demand zone at the 145 level and is now trading just under the 146 level. A momentum break below the demand zone would have been a potential reversal of the bullish momentum we have had on this pair for the past few months. Our bull flag idea (link below) is still in play, and the next target is likely to be at 147.378 (the August 2023 high). A break above this level and the psychological 150 level will be the next long-term target. Please do not forget to like, comment, and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX 
by BluetonaFX
NFP Alert: Gold to rise on weak numbers? Focus is growing on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. In August, it's expected that there will be about 170,000 new jobs (compared to 187,000 in July). The days leading up to this report have had some not-so-great job-related data, like the JOLTS and ADP reports. This has heightened expectations that the NFP might show fewer jobs than expected. The US dollar and Gold may feel the immediate effects if job growth disappoints, as signs that the economy is slowing could force the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance at upcoming meetings. Just yesterday, the ADP report for private payrolls in August was lower than what experts predicted. It was 177,000 jobs instead of the expected 195,000. If the NFP shows more than 200,000 new jobs, there could be a higher risk of inflation. This could help the US dollar but might place pressure on gold prices. On the other hand, if the NFP has less than 150,000 new jobs, traders might change their thinking about the Fed monetary policy outlook. This could make the US dollar weaker but could be a boost for gold prices. Gold recently peaked just below $1950, so this would be the immediate upside target, followed by last month's peaks at $1954, $1963, and $1972.
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by BlackBull_Markets
1
EURUSD Key levels pivotal as NFP nears The 4-hour chart on the EUR/USD displays a possible bearish bias, but there are some indications of consolidation after the small rebound observed on Friday. At present, the price is lingering around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). To improve its bullish outlook, it would be necessary for the Euro to hit 1.0840 and for other technical indicators (that have shifted away from their bearish inclination) to remain in its favor. The attention is now directed towards upcoming employment and inflation data. The JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by the ADP survey on private job creation, in anticipation of the Nonfarm Payrolls report to be unveiled on Friday. In the realm of European data, emphasis is also placed on inflation reports. Commencing Wednesday, Eurozone nations will commence the release of preliminary August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Additionally, on Tuesday, the German Gfk Consumer Confidence survey is set to be published. If there is a weekly closure in proximity to the current levels after the US jobs reports, it might embolden sellers in the next week, potentially opening the price zone around 1.0733. In the meantime, resistance could potentially be encountered at levels 1.0840 and 1.0910.
by BlackBull_Markets
BluetonaFX - EURUSD USDJPY NFP Multi-chart AnalysisHi Traders! The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) announcement came in at 205K, which was weaker than the expected number of 225K, and the markets have reacted quite strongly to the news. This could be a possible reversal of the bullish trend we have seen for the US dollar, and it will be very interesting to see what the Federal Reserve and other finance officials say about this. On both charts below, we can see the stark contrast in price action between EURUSD and USDJPY. Both products on the 1H chart had a trendline break with huge momentum; we have highlighted this on the volume indicator. EURUSD is now extremely bullish and is targeting the psychological level of 1.10000. USDJPY is now bearish, and we are now looking at a possible break below the 142 level and even 140. This all depends on what the Federal Reserve says in reaction to the weak data and if they hike interest rates at their next interest rate decision announcement. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
Non Farm Employment Change Prep7th July DXY: could retest 103.50, likely to return to range between 102.80 and 103.40 NZDUSD: Sell 0.6115 SL 20 TP 60 (Good NFP) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6620 SL 20 TP 60 (early entry, slightly higher risk) USDJPY: Sell 142.60 SL 30 TP 90 (DXY weakness) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2710 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.08.40 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDCHF: Could trade up to 0.90 resistance USDCAD: Buy 1.34 SL 30 TP 55 (DXY strength) GOLD: look to break 1910 to get to 1896
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
2
GBPUSD TRIANGLE BREAK 31/05/2023 IDEA UPDATEHi Traders! Our GBPUSD triangle break idea on 31/05/2023 broke out but not in the direction we anticipated (PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW). After a support test to the downside of the triangle, we had a very strong bullish momentum swing to the upside with a break and close to the upside of the triangle resistance. Our upside Vector resistance level of 1.23467 did come into play and we have had a slow down to the bullish momentum around that level which we have highlighted on the chart. This idea is why we always consider both sides in our analysis and proof that you should NEVER get attached to a view. If you do have a view on a trade, ALWAYS consider the other side and adapt. PLEASE NOTE: LATER TODAY, THE NON-FARM PAYROLL (NFP) WILL BE ANNOUNCED THEREFORE THE MARKETS WILL BE VERY THIN, SO PLEASE TRADE CAREFULLY! Please remember to follow, like and comment. We appreciate your support. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
Pounce Bounce After falling 3% since March 24th, USDCAD found a bottom on Tuesday and has since built on a 30min uptrend line. Client position indicates 59% Long vs 41% Short interest, with total trades heavily skewed in favour of the longs, representing 80% off open lots. Since this recent bounce started, both sides average return turned negative with shorts dropping to -0.7%. A 50% retracement of the 3% move would take us into the 1.36000 range, but there are many headwinds for the Dollar currently so any bullish movement may require a softer CAD. Will todays Canadian Employment Change provide the catalyst for a further move higher? or will this become a small relief rally in a bigger move downwards? Forecast is for 10.2k on a prior of 21.8k meaning the expectation is for a slowing on February's figure. Finally we have Non-Farm Payroll tomorrow, releasing during a National Holiday here in the UK. Personally I'm planning on a half day to monitor the news so will other traders be doing the same? Fireworks could still happen. - Client Positions - - LONG Long Trades: 72 Avg Trade Return: -1.3% Winning Trades: 54 Losing Trades: 168 - SHORT Short Trades: 51 Avg Trade Return: -0.7% Winning Trades: 43 Losing Trades: 57
by RuckSack
1