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Nonfarmpayroll

NonFarmPayroll Prep (USDJPY)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. Is the USDJPY likely to continue climbing higher? Or is it set up for a strong reversal? Typically strong US NFP employment data is would result in a strengthening of the DXY and for the USDJPY to climb higher. The USDJPY could climb towards the 142 resistance area before possibly staging a strong reversal, as the Stochastic look to turn out of the overbought area. On the reversal, the first target level would be the 139.40 support level.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
NonFarmPayroll Prep (NZDUSD)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. The NZDUSD has a strong descending trend line that applies downward pressure on price. But, the NZDUSD currently trades just above the 0.6060 support level. If the price breaks lower, there is little support until the 0.5930 price level (which was last reached in may 2020). Consider the possibility that the NZDUSD could find a significant upside move in the event of a surprise/bad data release from the US. If the price breaks above 0.61 and the diagonal trendline, the NZDUSD could climb towards 0.6158 and even 0.6250.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
NonFarmPayroll Prep (AUDUSD)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If the data is released better than expected, the USD should strengthen. The AUDUSD is currently retracing from the overnight's move lower, with price currently at the 0.68 level. If the DXY strengthens, look for price to close below the 0.6725 level before a sustained move to the downside, towards 0.6680 support level. But if the data fails to surprise or the DXY weakens, the AUDUSD could climb higher towards the 0.6843 level. Not idea to try buying the AUDUSD to the upside. Would be better to stay out.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
NonFarmPayroll Prep (DXY)NFP analysis for the first Friday of the month! The expectation is for an increase of 295K with last month released at 528K (The previous month's forecast was 250K). And relatively unchanged in terms of the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. Even a day before, the DXY shot up from the 109 level to test the 110 price level, opening up the possibility of a priced-in scenario. Typically the currencies sit in a tight consolidation in the leadup to the data release, but this time, the DXY is actually dropping before the news. The DXY could drop lower towards the 109 level (and bottom of the upward channel) before the news or on the release of the news. If the data is better than expected, the USD should strengthen, pushing the price from 109 to 109.50 and possibly even the 110.50 target level. If the price breaks below the 109 level and beyond the channel, the DXY could continue lower towards the next support level of 108.20 before a possible bounce.
TVC:DXYLong
by JinDao_Tai
DXY monthly forecast ahead of NFP At August’s close, the USD can be said to have performed exceedingly well against its trading partners. The DXY climbed 3.2% over the month. Now it heads into a very important Non Farm Payrolls result, and investors will be looking for clues as to the USD’s next move. The Non Farm Payroll data for August is released on September 2, 2022, and is perhaps more eagerly anticipated than normal. The reasons for this are detailed in Monday's market review Pound and gold head lower before NFP data. The worst performing USD pair over the past month has been the Pakistani rupee (USD/PKR), which fell by more than 8.0%. But this movement against the USD was far from the norm. The movements of other currencies include: GBP/USD, fell by 5.2% NZD/USD, fell by 2.9% EUR/USD, fell by 2.1% AUD/USD, fell by 1.9% USD/INR, rose by 1.4% USD/RUB, rose by 1.7% USD/CAD, rose by 2.1% USD/CHF, rose by 2.5% USD/JPY, rose by 5.3% We can look at the DXY chart on the monthly timeframe to try to ascertain whether the USD can sustain this upside momentum. Thus far, technical analysis is maybe suggesting that the US dollar still has plenty of space to move toward the upside. The monthly candle’s 107.500 resistance area, which is now broken, opens traders to scope out higher levels of resistance including 110.00 and 116.500. The former of which the Dollar index is currently butting up against. Further afield, traders may want to keep the 2-decade high of 120.000 in the back of their mind. Such a lofty prediction is seemingly backed-up by an upcoming US Federal Reserve interest rate decision. On the other hand, traders should be wary as well. The price could also create a monthly pullback as the Williams %R indicator is currently planted in the extreme upper range above 20%, which indicates that the price might be in overbought territory.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
Cooled private employment readings lower nonfarm estimatesEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI 🔽 Yesterday, the ADP Nonfarm Employment change tracking the private sector showed 132,000 workers joined the labor market, significantly lower than the expected 300,000. The lackluster result raised doubts about the nonfarm payrolls provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, which also has a 300,000 estimate for the month of August. If the official figures also disappoint, the Federal Reserve is more likely to opt for a 50 bps rate hike rather than a 75 bps one. However, USD/CAD still managed to rise to 1.3127, currently trading at 1.3161, Canada's GDP growth was at 0.1% as predicted. USD/JPY first closed at 138.96, then reached a record high not seen after 1998, jumping to 139.53. Regarding other major currencies, EUR/USD briefly went below the parity level again, but soon recovered to 1.0057. Eurozone’s headline inflation rate slightly surpassed original projections at 9.1%, and investors expect tonight’s German retail sales to record fewer losses. GBP/USD slid from 1.1692 to 1.1622, while the Aussie declined to 0.6839 against the greenback. Gold futures declined to $1,726.2 an ounce. Yet another pipeline maintenance from Russia to Europe tightened the energy supply on the continent, and despite falling Crude Oil Inventories, WTI oil futures dropped and stabilized at $89.00 a barrel, before closing at 89.55. More information on Mitrade website
by Mitrade_official
A Tale of Two Americas CME:LE1! The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released July non-farm payrolls on August 5th and July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on August 10th. Both reports beat market expectations. About 528,000 new jobs were created in July, well above June level. Annualized Inflation was lowered to 8.5% from the record 9.1% in June. While strong jobs data and taming inflation show the resilience of US economy, worrying signs are emerging. There are strikingly different faces of America: 1) People with jobs and those without; 2) Financially sound public companies and struggling small businesses; 3) Commodity prices that are under control, and those still flying high. July Non-farm Payrolls According to the Census Bureau, US population was 332 million in January 2022. Civilian Labor Force data reported by the BLS was 164 million in July, 49% of total population. It appears that the non-farm report shows us only half of the country. America: People with Jobs Total number of non-farm employees was 158 million in July. Of the half-million new jobs created, Leisure & Hospitality contributed to 96,000 (18%), while retail, wholesale, transportation, and warehousing together accounted for 42,000 (8%). Service-sector jobs tend to be low-pay, part-time and/or without benefits. Health care and Government created 70,000 (13%) and 57,000 (11%) new jobs, respectively. Since 2020, the Federal government has spent trillions to fight the pandemic and rescue the economy. These jobs were funded by budget, not by growing demand of a free market. Although American consumers continue to support the economy, low-income earners are struggling with rising costs of housing, food, transportation, and household necessity. America: People without Jobs Officially, the U.S. had 5.7 million unemployed persons in July. It is very misleading. According to the July report, “The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job was 5.9 million in July. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.” If we take both into consideration, the total number of unemployed people would be 11.6 million, with real unemployment rate at 6.8%. Additionally, more than half of the population is not included in the labor force, who count children, housewives, retirees, military members, adult students, and US citizens living abroad among them. People without jobs still have living expenses. They may be supported by working family members, government programs, or charities. They are the most vulnerable when the economy turns south. Retirees with fixed income are also being hit hard. With rising price, they sometimes must make the hard choice between food, medicine, and filling up the gas tank. Now, let’s turn our focus to American businesses. American Business: Public Companies From the pandemic triggered selloff in March 2020, the S&P 500 rebounded and doubled its value to 4800 last December. In 2022, the index was down 24% in the first six months. It has since recovered half the losses, down just 11% year-to-date as of August 10th. Based on data compiled by Liberated Stock Trader, these 500 publicly traded companies employed 28 million people worldwide. Walmart (WMT) is the biggest employer with a 2.3 million workforce. Amazon (AMZN) came in 2nd, with 1.3 million employees. On average, S&P component companies have 56,000 employees. With the ability to produce and distribute their products around the world, Big Businesses could withstand the impact of higher cost or adverse policy better than most companies. According to WSJ data, as of August 5th, the trailing 12-month Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) is 22.6 for S&P 500. Forward P/E is 18.2. Market expects S&P component companies to have lower earnings, but the impact of pending recession is not very significant. American Business: Private Companies Let’s start off by saying that I do not have comprehensive research on private businesses. Since most readers could only invest in the secondary market, we could use the Small-Cap Russell 2000 index as a proxy to mainstream American businesses. Russell has a YTD return of -12%, about 1% below the S&P. In the past five years, Russell underperformed S&P by 28%. Small-Cap stock performance is especially weak at time of market turmoil. A big difference is in the P/E ratio. Russell has a trailing P/E of 68.9, but the forward P/E sharply drops to 22.6. In good times, Small-Cap stock price have been inflated a lot more than the Blue-Chip. I expect their price to deflate faster in the pending recession. July CPI Data July CPI is unchanged from June month over month (M/M), and up 8.5% year over year (Y/Y). Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, is up 0.3% M/M and +5.9% Y/Y. Diving in the data by commodity category shows a different picture. Food: Up 1.1% M/M in July from 1.0% in June. Annualized food inflation is now 10.9%. Energy: Down 4.6% M/M, of which, gasoline, -4.6%; diesel, -4.7%; natural gas, -3.6%. Annualized energy inflation remains uncomfortably high at +33%. Gasoline price is 45% higher Y/Y after 50 days of consecutive price cuts. Commodities (excluding food and energy): Up 0.2% M/M and 7.0% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected products is: New cars, +0.6% and +10.4%; Used cars, -0.4% and +6.6%; Clothing, -0.1% and 5.1%; Pharmaceuticals, +0.6% and +3.7%. Services (excluding energy): Up 0.4% M/M and 5.5% Y/Y. CPI data M/M and Y/Y for selected service categories is: Housing, +0.5% and +5.7%; Transportation, -0.5% and +9.2%; Medical, +0.4% and +5.1%. Overall, inflation is lower in July only because the sharp decline in energy prices offset the price gains in food, housing, new cars and medicine . Investors' thrill in the stock market may be gone when they go the supermarkets after work. There are signs that consumers are downgrading their food purchases in the face of runaway inflation. Firstly, people tend to give up dining out in favor of cooking at home to save money. In July, food at home inflation was +1.3% M/M and +13% Y/Y. Price inflation for food consumed away from home increased at a slower pace, up 0.7% M/M and 7.6% Y/Y. There is a 5.5% spread, which impacts food spending at these two segments. Secondly, meat purchases show an apparent shift toward less expensive options. In July, beef price inflated 3.4% Y/Y, while pork was up 7.6% and chicken up 17.6%. Within each meat category, lower cost products also show higher inflation, indicating more demand. For example, ground beef was up 9.7% Y/Y, while steak price was down 1.5%! Bearish Trade Ideas With the headwind facing American economy, I think that a recession is inevitable. Based on the above analysis, I recommend shorting the Russell 2000. A 60+ P/E is too rich a valuation. The index could crash harder than S&P during an economic downturn. We could consider shorting the CME Micro E-Mini Russell 2000 December contract (M2KZ2) . Each contract is $5 x Index. At current quote of 1,974, each contract has a notional value of $9,870. CME requires initial margin of $550. Another idea is on beef prices. American consumer generally eats more beef while dining out. With the shift to cooking at home and buying cheaper meat, I expect beef prices to fall faster than pork price during a recession. We could short the CME Live Cattle December contract (LEZ2) . Each contract is 40,000 pounds of cattle. At current quote of 150.575, each contract has a notional value of $60,230. CME requires initial margin of $1,600. The futures market is extremely volatile this year. Getting an information edge increases your odd of success. I suggest my readers to subscribe to CME market data. TradingView users already have access to delayed data. A Pro user could upgrade to real-time CME market data for only $4 a month, a huge discount at the time of high inflation. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME:LE1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
5
Strong nonfarm payrolls send greenback flyingEUR/USD 🔽 GBP/USD 🔽 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU 🔽 WTI ▶️ US nonfarm payrolls in July added 528,000 jobs, shattering the original estimate of 290,000 and reaching a five-month high. The strong employment readings seemingly dispelled recession fears, and would likely extend the string of aggressive rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. The surprise boost for the greenback sent its peers to a sharp decline, GBP/USD recovered from 1.2025 to a closing price of 1.2071. EUR/USD closed lower at 1.0181, despite optimistic industrial production data from Germany and France. Mixed Chinese economic data didn’t stop the Aussie from falling to 0.6909 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair gained over 210 pips to 134.97 as the notable performer, and USD/CAD rose to a high of 1.2977 then stabilized and closed at 1.293. Gold futures were also spooked to $1,781, then rebounded to 1,791.2 an ounce. WTI oil futures experienced minor fluctuations, mostly traded flat at $89.01 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
What Today's Employment Data Means for Stocks and the FedNon Farm Payrolls introduced some volatility in stocks. The numbers came in hot, with a headline beat and unemployment at 3.5% . The S&P 500 had already edged higher, reaching our target of 4178, and establishing value between 4144 and 4178. The NFP data release introduced some volatility, with a small selloff extending past 4122 into the vacuum zone down to 4068. It appears the figures were priced in already, and stocks may be correcting because of that. Also, the strong numbers give the Fed more justification to hike rates in September. If stocks fall further watch for support at 4068, but be mindful of the vacuum zone below to 4009.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Non-farm payrolls = Volatility ahead! (SP500)US500 Intraday We look to Buy at 4086 (stop at 4060) Preferred trade is to buy on dips. There is scope for mild selling at the open but losses should be limited. Bespoke support is located at 4090. Support could prove difficult to breakdown. Further upside is expected although we prefer to set longs at our bespoke support levels at 4090, resulting in improved risk/reward. Our profit targets will be 4163 and 4320 Resistance: 4167 / 4500 / 4800 Support: 4090 / 3800 / 3400 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
Euro teasingly flirts with parityFor those following the euro's close encounters with parity, the currency played a game of tease earlier today. In the European session, EUR/USD dropped to parity with the US dollar, a line of psychological importance. However, the euro would not budge any lower, and is currently at 1.0068 in the North American session, up 0.28% today. I would not be surprised if EUR/USD does break below parity in the coming days, for the first time in some twenty years. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment has been stuck in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. The July release earlier today fell to -53.8, down sharply from -28.0 in June and missing the consensus of -38.3. The eurozone economy is grappling with soaring inflation and the war in Ukraine shows every indication of dragging on. The Nordstream 1 pipeline, the main channel for Russian oil to Germany, closed for maintenance on Monday and there are fears that Moscow could decide to keep the pipeline closed. This would prove a nightmarish scenario for Germany, with winter only a few months away. The US dollar stormed out of the gates on Monday, buoyed by a stronger than expected non-farm payroll report on Friday. The economy produced 372 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 268 thousand and close to the May release of 384 thousand (revised from 390 thousand). The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% and wages rose by 0.3%, which means that the Fed has a clear path to move ahead with a second straight 75bp hike at the July meeting. The Fed is not taking any prisoners in its battle against inflation and is clearly willing to deliver 75bp salvos until inflation eases. It wasn't long ago that a 50bp hike was considered a massive move; now such an increase would barely raise an eyebrow. The US releases inflation on Wednesday, a key release that could move the US dollar. Headline CPI is expected to rise from 8.6% to 8.8%, and if inflation does move higher, it would likely cement a 75bp move from the Fed and send the dollar higher. Conversely, a surprise drop in inflation would raise hopes that inflation has peaked and the Fed might resort to a 50bp increase, sending the dollar lower. EUR/USD tested support at 1.0018 in the European session. Below, there is support at 0.9889  There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0242
by OANDA
Positive US-Nonfarm Payrolls may bring more rate hikesEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔼 Amidst political shockwaves from Japan and the U.K., the Nonfarm Payrolls readings for June have increased by 372,000, significantly outperforming the market forecast of 268,000. Since this result does not align with market fears for a recession, the Federal Reserve will likely implement further mega rate hikes to combat inflation. Meanwhile, Elon Musk opted to terminate the Twitter deal, as he claimed the lack of information provided by Twitter itself hindered his goal of removing all spam and fake accounts on the platform. As a result, the stock price (TWTR) decreased by 5.10%, losing over two U.S. dollars over the weekend. EUR/USD closed at 1.0183, after recovering from a low of 1.0100, and the German ZEW Economic Sentiment index will be available tomorrow. As the British Parliament awaited the next political leader, GBP/USD recovered from 1.1933, then closed at 1.2027 with minor gains. AUD/USD had a choppy trading session to 0.6856, and just declined to 0.6828. Gold futures markets were mostly quiet, and little change was recorded at $1,741 an ounce. Although U.S. oil futures settled at 104.79, they were climbing slowly. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield bonds advanced a further 8.8bps to 3.082%. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
1
GOLD NFP MOVEMENT AND FORECASTAs based on the recent Non-Farm Payroll data which came 678k which is 211K more then last month's data and around 271k more then forecast which make the economic condition of US strong as a result we can possibly see bullish trend in US dominated currency pairs although on the other hand the situation between Ukraine and Russian is getting worse which is giving a direct fuel to the prices of commodities like GOLD which can be seen always inverse from USD while these fundamental movements stretching out the market we can catch sight of consolidating movements with momentary spike in GOLD prices. As the technical Indicating strong Buy for GOLD however Fundamentals are opposing the same while following the nearest resistance of around 1949 and support of 1943.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FiscalAutonomy
1
DXY still bullish above 94.60TGIF all, I wanted to share my opinions to the chart of DXY . I see DXY still successfully produces lower highs while finding supports on 9 months old (blue) trendline. In my opinion, DXY is still bullish above 94.60. We observed a correction lately on DXY from the 97.5 levels. Demand to dollar increased due to the expected rate hikes of Fed but the price already discounted the hike probabilities. Now we have to watch carefully of the upcoming NFP data while observing the Omicron cases. Be careful! If the layoffs are high, there may be a jump on average wages . Have a good weekend!
TVC:DXY
by gorkemaydogan
What 3 events will traders be watching this week? 31 Jan- 05 FebThis week’s 3 events will concentrate on US employment numbers. The released figures could bolster or work against the strength found in the USD since the beginning of the year. For instance, the NZD and EUR have quickly dropped in value against the USD and are currently at a multi-month low against the greenback. Depending on this week’s numbers, the GBP, CAD, and AUD, which are presently floating close to 1-month lows, may soon be joining the NZD and EUR at values not seen since mid-2020. Wednesday and Thursday, February 02 and 03: Wednesday: Jolts Job DEC Thursday: ADP Employment Change JAN Two highly anticipated precursors to Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report are released over Wednesday and Thursday this week. The first, the JOLTS Job Openings for December, is expected to remain close to record highs with 10.5 million jobs advertised across the US. Employers are seemingly experiencing difficulty holding onto their workforce, with job quits matching recorded highs and labour force participation struggles to budge from 40-year lows. While the JOLTS Job Openings report is limited in its impact on forex and stocks, it does help set the tone for the following two more appreciable job reports. The second, the ADP Employment Change for January, is estimated to report the lowest number of new jobs added to the US private sector since February 2021, with the consensus forecasting 200K. The typically slow start to the year, if forecasts are accurate, will sit in stark contrast to December’s (2021) 800K jobs, which shocked analysts who were expecting less than half this number at the end of last year. Saturday, February 05: Non-farm Payrolls JAN Non-farm Payrolls JAN is forecast to report 155K jobs added to the US economy in January, representing a marked slowdown in jobs growth, but in line with what has been seen with the past few months. Last month’s report for December 2021 delivered 199K jobs, while November 2021 reported 249K jobs. Disappointing Non-farm Payrolls may no longer have the same impact it once did, as investors appear content with the slowing job growth, and negative pressure on the USD typically fails to eventuate after such an event. While job growth is slowing, it should be noted that wage pressure is rising, which could be a good thing for US consumer spending and optimism for the US economy in general.
by BlackBull_Markets
US Dollar Steady Ahead of Payrolls DataThe US dollar has edged upward, but we will be waiting for non farm payrolls data for introspection on US labor market conditions before it will make a more definitive move. We anticipated ranging between 95.85 and 96.65, which appears to be exactly what we are seeing. This rally does appear weak and we are seeing several red triangles on the KRI suggesting we are facing headwinds. The DXY won't make a definitive move until after the NFP data comes out. If the data is not favorable, watch for support at 95.85, but take note of the vacuum zone down to 95.26. If the data is favorable, then we should make a run for 96.65, with 97.03 being a max upper bound.
TVC:DXY
by quantguy
1
USDJPY Going UP Strongly - Positive Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast Hello Traders Here is a new BUY Scenario, October's Nonfarm Payrolls are set to show an increase of 425K after two disappointments. - Yen shows signs of long-term vulnerability. - Focus on upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. - Possible bullish continuation pattern - 114.00 level key. My Forecast : Strong NFP may push USD up, No big drop until 115.600 💹USD/JPY BUY STOP ✅ Entry @114.000 or above ✅TP-1# 114.200 ✅TP-2# 114.400 ✅TP-3# 114.600 ✅SL# 113.400 JamdeJam will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this channel including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals
Long
by jamdejam
Job Market Bounced Back From Disappointment (08 November 2021)Stellar jobs report The U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) delivered an optimistic tone when it announced that 531,000 jobs were created for the month of October. Adding a cherry on top of the cake, the number of jobs for August and September have been revised upwards by 117,000 and 118,000 respectively. Overall, a total of 766,000 jobs have been added to the record. With this strong data release, the job market is now around 4.3 million jobs below the pre-pandemic level. The main driver of the increase in jobs last month is the leisure and hospitality sector, which is not surprising as the number of COVID cases has been dropping since mid-September, leading to more activities such as dining-in at restaurants. Labour supply remains stagnated Unemployment rate continues to decline. At the moment, it is standing at 4.6%, 0.2% higher than the pre-pandemic level of 4.4%. Despite the fall in unemployment rate, the labour force remains stagnated in terms of growth. As the participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%, this indicates that people are still not returning to the workforce. Data in line with Fed’s timeline With the start of quantitative easing (QE) tapering, the Federal Reserve is expecting QE to conclude during mid-2022. If the job market remains strong from now until mid-2022, it may recover to its pre-pandemic level, making progress towards the Fed’s maximum employment goal. In that case, the central bank may carry forward its projected timeline for interest rate hike.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee