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Nonfarmpayroll

Bye-Bye Tapering Announcement (06 September 2021)Jobs growth in August way off market’s expectation. Last Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 235,000 jobs being created in August, way below the market’s expectation of 720,000. The leisure and hospitality sector, the main driver behind the strong jobs growth for the past several months, added zero jobs amid the rise in COVID cases. With the leisure and hospitality sector taking a backseat, the professional and business services sector led the August’s jobs growth with an increase of 74,000 jobs. The worsening COVID situation has impacted the job market more negatively in August than in July. 5.6 million people reported not being able to work as their employer wind down business due to the pandemic. This figure rose from the July’s figure of 5.2 million. All is not lost. Despite the poor August figure, upward revisions were made to the number of jobs created for the past two months. In July, the number of jobs created was revised from 943,000 to 1,053,000 while in June, the figure was revised from 938,000 to 962,000. In total, these revisions reflected 134,000 jobs more than previously reported. Furthermore, based on history, nonfarm payroll figures have a tendency of subjecting to substantial revision due to discrepancies as a result of people going on summer vacation. Hence, there is a chance that the scanty figure released this month may be revised upwards to salvage the situation a little even though the shortfall may be too big. Chance of a September taper announcement is dimming. Without a doubt, the Federal Reserve is not going to like what they see from this jobs report. This will definitely lower the chance that the central bank will be making a QE tapering announcement during their meeting later this month. As a result, the Fed may postpone such an announcement to the meeting in November while buying some time for the jobs market to prove its worth.
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
EUR/USD: NON-FARM-PAYROLLS - DATA EXPECTED TO BE STUNNING! ⚡Forecast 03 September 2021 The U.S. Federal Reserve has repeatedly made it clear that the main criterion for winding down support measures would be a stronger labor market. Most interestingly, after disappointing data in July, where unemployment rose to 5.9%, we saw a strong strengthening in August, with unemployment falling to 5.4%. Many analyst agencies have noted that the growth in the labor market has been hampered by those very "American" payouts. In other words, many companies noted labor shortages. Accordingly, the pay cuts that began in late June have not yet had time to affect the June data, but we have seen an excellent strengthening of the labor market in July. The number of jobless claims continues to decline. Both total and initial jobless claims are down. Perhaps not at the pace we would like, but it is continuing. Looking at the labor market, the Fed's goal of 4% unemployment could be reached very soon. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment : - Last data: 943K - Consensus Forecast: 750K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY : - Last data: 0.4% - Consensus forecast: 0.3% This indicator shows the change in the average hourly wage level for major industries, except agriculture. Unemployment Rate : - Past data: 5.4% - Consensus forecast: 5.2% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
4
US Dollar Index Outlook: Down But Not Out, NFPs Eyed on SEP 3A majors-based US Dollar Index , one that averages USD against EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD, declined this past week. Prices confirmed a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting at further losses in the near term. Still, the broader uptrend since June still remains in play. A bullish ' Golden Cross ' between the 50- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages is in play. The 50-day line could reinstate the focus to the upside in the coming sessions. Otherwise, breaking under it could shift the outlook materially bearish. A softer US non-farm payrolls report on September 3rd will be closely eyed by Greenback traders. Given the Fed's recent tone at the J ackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium , a softer jobs print could push back taper timeline expectations. Such an outcome could be positive for market sentiment, threatening the anti-risk USD. 1/((FX_IDC:EURUSD+FX_IDC:JPYUSD+FX_IDC:GBPUSD+FX_IDC:AUDUSD)/4)
by QM_Dubrovsky
Dollar Index - Double Bottom?After very good fundamental news in last week, we experienced 2 bull Daily candles in according to ISM service and Non-farm Payroll events. This signals a retest of the last high also, a neckline of the Double Bottom pattern. If a break from this level at 93.30 would provide a clear path for the Double Bottom pattern to form and measured move may lead to 97.x level. A failed break from here would give Dollar index come back to sideways range and challenge the latest structure's level at 91.x level. It's safe to wait one of those things happen before making any serious medium term trades. From fundamental views, EUR is less likley to change its monetary policy before any other central banks like AUD, NZD, USD, GBP, so its would perform worst for the time being ahead compared to other pairs. For AUD, we would check for Covid situation there while NZD is on a clear path of rate hike for the months ahead. AUDNZD is till a safe short if Covid story is not better for AUD this week. EURGBP is still a safe bet with bearish view due to the differences so far in the view of central banks.
TVC:DXY
by DatTong
Key Points From The U.S. NFP Jobs Report (09 August 2021)KEY POINTS: In July, 943,000 jobs were created Highest figure since August 2020; main driver of this strong increase is the Leisure and Hospitality sector Number of jobs created in June was revised upwards from 850,000 to 938,000 Number of jobs created in May was also revised upwards from 583,000 to 614,000 Total number of jobs at the moment is still around 5.8 million below the pre-pandemic level Unemployment rate declined from 5.9% to 5.4% Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% Rising demand for labour likely led to the rise in earnings Participation rate inched higher from 61.6 to 61.7
TVC:DXY
by GH_Lee
Non-farm Payrolls - Data Expected to Be Stunning!Following last week's Fed meeting, it was clear that the central bank was only putting off hawkish rhetoric, but was not ruling it out in the near future. Consequently, the basis for expectations is there, we just need data that would indicate that the economy continues to grow. The hope is the U.S. unemployment report coming out this Friday. It is expected that job growth, the most important indicator in terms of the Fed's post-pandemic policy impact could show a figure close to a million. If the economy creates more jobs than forecast, the odds increase sharply that the Fed will warn in August about a policy adjustment - a reduction in the pace of asset purchases (treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), probably this year. In that case, long-dated bonds would become slightly less profitable, given the approval of the infrastructure plan, which would require new borrowing, investors could start exiting treasuries en masse. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 850K Consensus Forecast: 880K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY Last data: 0.3% Consensus forecast: 0.3% Unemployment Rate Past data: 5.9% Consensus forecast: 5.7% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
Nonfarm-Payrolls expected effect on S&P500 (SPX) and EUR/USDDuring the last 10 months the correlation of surprises for ADP Nonfarm employment change and Nonfarm payrolls is positive (58%). This means that if we saw a negative ADP nonfarm employment change on Wednesday, we should see a negative nonfarm payroll today. This is however not certain. In fact, the February ADP came out with a -34% negative surprise while the NFP came out with a +108% positive surprise. The historical correlation of the nonfarm payrolls with the same day SPX return is around 6%. This is a non-significant positive correlation. On average, the SPX tend to register a positive return independently from the nonfarm payrolls report. For this reason, even if we are seeing a negative NFP figure today, the market is still probably gonna perform well. The average return of SPX on the NFP publication day is +0.48% (+0.80% if we exclude negative historical returns). Therefore, we expect a positive move with an accumulation in the $4450-$4470 area. Similar to the SPX, the EUR/USD cross tends to react positively to the NFP announcement in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP announcement. In this respect, we expect a positive increase of around +15/+20 pips in the 15/60 minutes period after the NFP publication.
TVC:SPXLong
by CucabarraTrading
EURJPY analysis | Entry before the NFPWe are expecting the publishing of Non Farm Payrolls today. This is a very important news which will cause some big moves. Be careful with any positions that you open prior to that! We found an opportunity on EURJPY. This pair won't be affected by the USD, but the EURUSD and USDJPY instead. No matter if we see a negative or positive news later on today we are expecting higher values on EURJPY! Currently we have an uptrend on M30 which is also confirmed by the higher timeframes and that's why we expect market reaching 132,75. Once price gets there we will have another look at the setup. Follow us for more specific opportunities!
Long
by ForexTrendline
7
EURUSD trading strategy ahead key eventsDuring the current European session the trend of EURUSD will change. The current downward trend started last Friday and is about to end today. The Dollar gained about 130-140 pips in this period of 4 days. For today the key event is ISM Manufacturing PMI(May) at 14:00 GMT. But overall the key event that everyone is waiting for is Friday Non-farm payroll report. It is expecting a positive report that may support the dollar. The event is already generated by the market. But till the event we expects to see temporary recovery of the Euro as possible levels up to 1.1885.
Long
by World-Signals
1
Gold gains with low NFP dataHello Traders TGIF, After having our profits shorting XAUUSD, Today low nonfarm payroll data showed US Economy is not ready to reach expected rebound. Gold seemed to finish its correction period and ready to gain momentum to reach my long term targets. Price should stay above 4H MA50 priced 1895 right now. I opened my long position at 1875 and my short term target is 1945. I will follow up the price action until market close. Trade safe and have fun! Remember to like and comment what you think. Have a lovely weekend.
TVC:GOLDLong
by gorkemaydogan
USDOLLAR: NON-FARM PAYROLLS - DATA EXPECTED TO BE STUNNING ! 🔔The April U.S. jobs report partially justified the Fed's reluctance to adjust the parameters of the QE, as the economy created only 266,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%. However, commodity markets continue to call out that price pressures have reached levels that pose a real danger to the economy. Frenzied inflation is hard to get under control. Last week's released CPI figure reflected a 0.8% jump in prices, while experts had predicted a 0.2% increase. And while Fed officials are confident that they can handle the pressure with monetary policy tools, there is no guarantee of that. Moreover, it is monetary and fiscal policy that fuels inflationary pressures. Twenty-two U.S. states are eliminating federal unemployment benefits. Today, U.S. citizens are paid $300 a week in additional unemployment benefits as part of the Biden bailout package. But these payments have resulted in many Americans receiving more in benefits than they would have earned at work. Quite naturally, the desire to look for work disappears. Such negative effects go a long way toward explaining the very contradictory statistics in the United States: On the one hand, business activity indices are off the charts, companies are willing to hire workers and produce more. On the other hand, unemployment rose in April compared to the previous month. Since the beginning of March, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has fallen by more than a third. Over the same period, the total number of people receiving benefits has fallen only 12.7%. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 266K Consensus Forecast: 650K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. Unemployment Rate Past data: 6.1% Consensus forecast: 5.9% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
DJ:USDOLLARLong
by FOREXN1
11
US: Strong economic data lift stocks to record highsUS Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. The March Manufacturing PMI registered a record high 64.7 percent, and the March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent. As we mentioned before, the US economy in Q2 would be benefited by the Manufacturing and Services industry. MM Analysis US Non-farm Payrolls up 916K in March, unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% to 6%. In particular the education and health services up by 101k and the professional and business services up by 66k, showing that the vacinnation has helped the SMEs to recover. Construction ( + 110k ) and Manufacturing ( +53k ) industries has also backed strong support on the US economy recovery. The March Manufacturing PMI registered 64.7 percent, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the February reading of 60.8 percent. New orders 68 percent, Production 68.1 percent and Backlog of Orders 67.5 percent are in a fast growing direction. Customers’ Inventories 29.9% has been at historically low levels. Besides the above indexes, a low inventory-sale ratio on January shows that manufacturing cycle would continue due to the capital injection by the US government. The March Services PMI registered at a 16-year record high 63.7 percent, an increase of 8.4 percentage points from the February reading of 55.3 percent. Employment 57.2%, comments from respondents include: “Have recalled everyone put on waivers and made new hires” and “Additional employees added to service the need of new customers at new locations.” Showing a high probability for corporate to hire more and a optimistic outlook on the labor market, boosting consumer confidence and the US Q2 economy.
DJ:DJI
by MacroMicro_Global
Potential Sniper Shot off the 1.29 Handle - USDCADCurrently I'm bullish but I'll be bearish off the 1.29 handle. This morning we had fairly decent ADP figures from the US in at +174k. Typically on a monthly basis the ADP provides a leading clue as to what we might expect with the following NFP figures. My guess is that Non-Farm on Friday will come in hot and could add some strength to the greenback. I don't think the dollar will remain strong for too long though if we do in fact get some strength following the report. For that reason, I'm placing pending sell limit orders off the 1.29 area in an attempt to snipe the intra-day top. ------------------------- Please don't forget to FOLLOW, LIKE, and COMMENT ... If you like my analysis:) Trade Safe - Trade Well Regards, Michael Harding 😎 Chief Technical Strategist @ LEFTURN Inc. RISK DISCLAIMER Information and opinions contained with this post are for educational purposes and do not constitute trading recommendations. Trading Forex on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to invest in Forex you should consider your knowledge, investment objectives, and your risk appetite. Only trade/invest with funds you can afford to lose.
Long
by Michael_Harding