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Nonfarmpayrolls

GBP/USD slides as Nonfarm Payrolls surgesThe British pound is falling sharply in the North American session, after a massively strong US nonfarm payment release. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2040, down 0.98% on the day. It wasn't so long ago that US nonfarm payrolls was one of the most anticipated events on the economic calendar and often had a significant impact on the movement of the US dollar. That has changed in the new economic landscape of red-hot inflation and central banks raising interest rates practically every month. The markets seem more absorbed with new inflation records and the threat of recession, which may make for more catchy headlines than labor market statistics. Today, however, NFP demonstrated its ability to be a market-mover. The July gain of 528 thousand crushed the estimate of 250 thousand and follows the June release of 372 thousand. The US dollar has responded with strong gains against the majors, as a strong labour market will enable the Fed to remain hawkish with its rate moves. The BoE was widely expected to raise rates by 50bp, and the central bank did exactly that. The MPC vote was 8-1 in favour, with one member voting for a 25bp hike. This split shows that Governor Bailey appears to have the MPC members in line, which should bolster Governor Bailey's credibility. With inflation hitting 9.4% in June and no sign of a peak, the BoE has been accused of raising a white flag with regard to inflation. The 50bp increase, the biggest in 30 years, is an important step in fighting inflation, which has hit 9.4% and shows no signs of peaking. Even with this hike, the Bank Rate is at 1.75%, well behind the Federal Reserve, the central banks of Canada and New Zealand and others. The BoE's rate increase was accompanied by a stark warning of a prolonged recession, and the pound responded with losses. The pound managed to recover these losses but it is clear that the currency isn't getting any support from the BoE's rate moves, with such a huge gap between inflation levels and current rates. Investors were also less than impressed as the BoE said that it might ease up on raising rates in the coming months. Governor Bailey has said he would be forceful in combating inflation, but the message that the central bank doesn't plan to be forceful with its forward guidance is weighing on the pound. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2128. Next, there is resistance at 1.2295  There is support at 1.2010 and 1.1876
by OANDA
SP500 bull or bear? August NFP coming this weekThe last time I posted about SP500 I was expecting the market to try break strong resistance 4140-4180. So far it goes according to plan. I’m preparing to go short. What if we break the resistance? This can be a bull trap and we will get a new low very likely in September. There is another option. VIX on weekly chart, we’re very close to 200EMA(21.5).This is a very strong support. If we break it, very much likely we can see bullish market. What I’m anticipating is a strong reaction when we fall to 21.5 on VIX. Of course I might be wrong. No one can predict what market will do next. All eyes on Friday’s non farm payrolls. The earning season wasn’t that bad. The economy is slowing down but it’s not dramatic. Is it enough to 4180 resistance on SP500? I don’t think so, but please do your own analysis before trading. This is only my prediction based on trend analisys and indicators
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trinnisia_Trades
2
Euro above parity by a threadIt is looking like July 2022 could be a memorable month for the euro, but unfortunately not for the right reasons. EUR/USD is within a whisker of dropping below parity with the US dollar for the first time since 2002 and the risk of a break below parity below in the coming days remains high. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.008, down 1.00%.  The euro, along with all the other majors, is seeing red against the US dollar today. The markets have reacted to the surprisingly strong non-farm payroll report on Friday, as the June gain of 381 thousand surpassed the May reading of 336 thousand and easily beat the consensus of 240 thousand. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6%, while wage growth grew by 0.3%. The solid employment report has raised expectations of another 75bp hike by the Fed at the end of July. A 75bp move will substantially widen the Europe/US rate differential, which is contributing to the euro's sharp descent today. The ECB holds its policy meeting six days ahead of the Federal Reserve, on July 21st. This meeting will likely mark the lift-off for ECB rate hikes, with another increase expected in September. The ECB has been scrambling to catch up to the inflation curve, as it badly misjudged the staying power of high inflation. ECB interest rates are in negative territory, and a modest 0.25% hike, the most likely scenario at the July meeting, may not do much to boost the euro, although perhaps the perception that the ECB is finally tightening will provide some support to the ailing currency. On Tuesday, Germany releases ZEW Economic Sentiment. The index has been mired in negative territory for months, indicative of strong pessimism about the economic outlook. In June, the index came in at -28.0 and this is expected to worsen to -40.0 in July. EUR/USD is putting strong pressure on support at 1.001, just above parity. Below, there is support at 0.9849 There is resistance at 1.0124 and 1.0221
by OANDA
Swiss franc rises on higher inflationhe Swiss franc is slightly higher on Thursday. USD/CHF is trading at 0.9596, down 0.39% on the day. Those of us who think "staid and steady" when the Swiss franc comes to mind will be forgiven for not recognizing the currency lately. The Swissie took riders on a roller-coaster in the month of May, as USD/CHF rose 300 points and broke above parity for the first time since December 2019. The upswing didn't last, as the pair reversed directions and dropped by some 400 points. The Swiss franc has stabilized over the past week after the May volatility. It is noteworthy that the EUR/CHF is trading at a one-month low. Swiss inflation is moving upwards and hit a 14-year high in May. CPI rose 0.7% MoM, up from 0.4% in April (0.3% exp). On an annualized basis, CPI  climbed 2.9%, up from 2.5% in April (2.6% exp.). Inflation remains much lower than the red-hot numbers we're seeing in the eurozone or the UK, but Switzerland traditionally has enjoyed very low inflation, and higher prices are putting pressure on the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to address rising inflationary pressures. The SNB has maintained an accommodative policy, which includes a benchmark rate of -0.75%, by far the lowest of any major bank. So far, the Bank is not showing any signs of tightening policy by raising rates, although that could change if the Swiss currency continues to appreciate. Recent US data has been firm, with the notable exception of the housing sector. We'll get a look at US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The markets are braced for a slowdown, as the April forecast stands at 325 thousand, after a March gain of 428 thousand. It wasn't so long ago that the NFP release was the highlight of the week, but with inflation, the Ukraine war and the OPEC+ meeting, NFP will be sharing the spotlight. Still, it should be considered a market-mover for the US dollar. There is resistance at 0.9624 and 0.9704 USD/CHF has support at 0.9497 and 0.9417
by OANDA
US-DOLLAR really falling after NFPs? I doubt it.Hey tradomaniacs, chaotic market huh? To be honest... I think the current move of US-DOLLAR doesn`t make any sense. I keep it simple and short, otherwise I`d have to break the mold. The data are mixed but do overall show a slowdown in the economy but at the same time rising inflation. Non-Farm-Payrolls: 199.000 less jobs than expected and the worst result since december 2020. This clearly shows a cool down in the NFP-Sector and is overall bearish for the US-Dollar. Unemployment Rate: 3,9% and a positive development considering that previous rate has been at 4,2%. Overall bullish fort he US-Dollar. Average hourly earnings: 0,6% and way higher compared to the previous month. This is overall bullish for the US-DOLLAR due to higher inflation. Average weekly hours: 34,7 and less than expected. The problem here in my opinion is the fact that earnings per hour soared while less jobs were created. This is a typical sign of inflation and part oft he wage-price-spiral. Considering that FED has to and will fight inflation as its priority number one after their „transitory-fail“ to gain back reputation Jerome Powell & Co could turn from best friends to fiends for the stockmarket as financial injections probably won`t be an option anymore, whether the economy cools down or not. This is clearly negative for the overvalued equity-market but not by all means for the US-Dollar. Simply put: The FEDs in a quandra. Can`t provide more liquidity due to high inflation to push growth and employment and has to hope everything is going to be fine. Rising yields do indicate expectations for higher inflation in the market and would offer an alterantive to stocks in the near future (Bonds). They are also generally good for the bank-sector and obviously not good for tecs due to high costs which are not as easier to finance with higher interest-rates. But here is a catch.. we know how irrational but faithful the market is... if it turns out the market hopes the FED to ignore their plans and "slow it down" in order to boost the economy again if future results are not as good as expected we might see another rally in stocks and so a falling US-Dollar. This would be more like the less likely scenario in my opinion...I mean Bidens is on Powells tail. Risk-Off is generally good for the US-DOLLAR as a safe haven. If FED continues as announced and planned the US-Dollar is likely to move up while this move turns out to be a fake. One of these charts is lying, but I see a higher probabillity of a rising US-Dollar under these circumstances. LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me
TVC:US10YLong
by Trading2ez
3
Stocks Await Non Farm Payrolls DataAs we suggested in the previous report, stocks are generally ranging until news from one of the most significant data points traders can have: Non Farm Payrolls. This is particularly significant because a lower than expected reading will signal that tapering from the Fed is likely off the table until well into next year. In a Central Bank driven economy, this will drive stock prices higher. Currently, the S&P is ranging in a well defined value area from 4521 to 4545, though we are seeing a clear affinity for the upper bound of this range. Recall that 4564 is our next target, which should be easily within reach depending on how the markets digest NFP. We have support from 4504 and 4487 below, if volatility kicks in.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Non-farm Payrolls - Data Expected to Be Stunning!Following last week's Fed meeting, it was clear that the central bank was only putting off hawkish rhetoric, but was not ruling it out in the near future. Consequently, the basis for expectations is there, we just need data that would indicate that the economy continues to grow. The hope is the U.S. unemployment report coming out this Friday. It is expected that job growth, the most important indicator in terms of the Fed's post-pandemic policy impact could show a figure close to a million. If the economy creates more jobs than forecast, the odds increase sharply that the Fed will warn in August about a policy adjustment - a reduction in the pace of asset purchases (treasuries and mortgage-backed securities), probably this year. In that case, long-dated bonds would become slightly less profitable, given the approval of the infrastructure plan, which would require new borrowing, investors could start exiting treasuries en masse. Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Last data: 850K Consensus Forecast: 880K The Non-Farm employment change measures the change in the number of people employed during the last month in the non-farm sector. Total Non-Farm Payrolls represent about 80% of the workers who produce all of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States. It is the most important piece of data contained in the employment report that offers the best overview of the economy. Monthly changes and adjustments in the data can be very volatile. U.S. Average Hourly Earnings YoY Last data: 0.3% Consensus forecast: 0.3% Unemployment Rate Past data: 5.9% Consensus forecast: 5.7% The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively looking for a job and willing to work in the United States. A high percentage indicates weakness in the labor market. A low percentage is positive for the U.S. labor market and should be taken as a positive factor for the USD.
Short
by FOREXN1
8
Will Japan Household Spending rebound?The Japanese yen is drifting in the Monday session. In North American trade, USD/JPY is trading at 108.67, up 0.05%. The yen has posted four winning weeks out of the past five, as the US dollar continues to struggle. Still, the US/Japan rate differential continues to support USD/JPY, which remains in no man's land slightly below the 109 level. Japan will release Household Spending (GMT 23:30), and the consumer spending indicator is expected to rebound after two straight declines of 6.1% and 6.6%. The March release is projected to show a gain of 1.7%, which would mark a five-month gain. The market was gearing up for a blowout party from US nonfarm payrolls on Friday. In the end, however, the economy created just 266 thousand jobs, nowhere near the estimate of 990 thousand. There were expectations that NFP would break above the one-million mark, and some analysts even projected a reading above the two-million mark. The unemployment rate rose to 8.1%, up from 7.8%. Still, the news was not all bad, as wage growth rebounded with a strong gain of 0.7%, after a read of -0.1% beforehand. The US economy remains in good shape, and investors are unlikely to let a weak NFP report ruin optimism over the economy. The Fed has maintained a dovish stance, even with the economy posting strong numbers. The disappointing nonfarm payroll report appears to have justified the Fed's position, but investors will be keeping a close eye on this week's inflation numbers. A sharp rise in inflation could renew calls for the Fed to consider tapering. On the other hand, if the upcoming inflation numbers are weaker than expected, there will be less pressure on the Fed to change its accommodative policy. USD/JPY is facing resistance at 109.42. Above, there is resistance at 110.24. On the downside, there is support at 108.06 and 107.52
by OANDA
Aussie steadies after slide, RBA nextThe Australian dollar is steady in the Monday session. In European trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7722, up 0.14%. The US dollar showed some broad strength on Friday, and AUD/USD fell 0.70% and briefly fell below the 0.77 level. The greenback was supported by inflows from international investors who snapped up US Treasuries in month-end rebalancing flows. Strong US numbers on Friday also gave the US dollar a boost. The Core PCE Price Index, which is considered the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose to 0.4% in March, up from 0.1% beforehand. This is another indication of inflationary pressures, as the US economy continues to sprint at a fast pace. The Fed has stated more than once that any spike in inflation will be temporary, but it's not at all clear that the market has bought into this stance. If inflation numbers continue to rise in the coming months, the Fed may have to acknowledge that higher inflation levels are not a passing event. On Friday, Fed Governor Robert Kaplan, who is not a voting member, said straight out the Fed needs to be talking about tapering its asset-purchase program. The Fed has insisted that it needs to keep its foot to the pedal as the economy continues to recover, but there's a good chance that other Fed members agree with Kaplan. The US economy has been reeling off impressive numbers, and the April nonfarm payroll report is expected in at 975 thousand. A print above the one million mark is certainly achievable and would provide ammunition to the view that the Fed should review its current policy. The RBA is facing a similar economic picture to that of the Fed - a rapidly improving economy and strong growth. Like the Fed, the RBA has implemented a highly accommodative policy in order to support the economy's recovery from the Covid pandemic. The central bank holds its policy meeting on Tuesday (4:30 GMT), and the bank is expected to maintain interest rates at 0.10% and its QE programme of A$100 billion. Unless there is a surprise announcement, I would expect the RBA meeting to be a non-event for the Australian dollar. On the upside, 0.7787 is the next resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 0.7864. On the downside, there are support levels at 0.7665 and 0.7620
by OANDA
Has CAD run out of gas?The Canadian dollar has reversed directions on Thursday. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2577, up 0.13% on the day. Since the start of 2021, the Canadian dollar is up about one percent against its US cousin, but there are signs that the currency may have touched bottom. The province of Ontario, the largest in Canada, is expected to announce an expansion of lockdown restrictions throughout the province. Ontario is expected to announce that the lockdown will be in force for 28 days, in a bid to curb soaring Covid rates. Canada's number of Covid cases has doubled compared to the beginning of March, but the vaccine rollout has been very slow, with only 2% of the population fully vaccinated. Another factor is the oil prices hit their most recent peak on March 5th and have been on the decline, even with the spike due to the Suez Canal closing. The unexpectedly strong GDP gave the Canadian dollar a boost on Wednesday, but the negative impact of Covid on the economy and falling oil prices could mean a bumpy road ahead for the Canadian dollar. Will US Nonfarm Payrolls crush the consensus?  The ADP Employment report for February came in at 517 thousand, shy of the estimate of 552 thousand but a huge rise from the previous read of 117 thousand. We'll get a look at official employment numbers on Friday, with nonfarm payrolls the highlight (12:30 GMT). The street consensus stands at 652 thousand, which would be a sharp rise from the January read of 379 thousand. However, given the impressive US recovery and an aggressive vaccine rollout, NFP could outperform by a wide margin. Barclays Bank sent a note with a forecast of 900 thousand, and some analysts are predicting a gain of above the one-million mark. If NFP is unexpectedly strong, we can expect some volatility from USD/CAD on Friday. 1.2641 has some breathing room in resistance after USD/CAD dropped considerably on Wednesday. This is followed by resistance at 1.2713. On the downside, there is support at 1.2486, followed by a support level is at 1.2403. Below, 1.2365 is both the 1-month low and the 52-week low.
by OANDA
Either which way for NZD/USD - its all on 13:30!!!!NZD/USD have been locked in a titanic battle for control of this chart for the last 8 hours or so. Technically we should break south to relieve overbought conditions on H1 timeframe but with the key Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate out of the USA due at 13:30 GMT, this pair ain't goin' nowhere for 3 hours. The risk it has to be said is that the numbers which will be the worst on record will miss target and be worse than expected. This could induce heavy dollar selling but if the numbers come in as expected we could see a USD bounce. I'm positioned SHORT because of the technicals but I have an ultra tight STOP which will be tightened more before 13:30. This could be very interesting!
by theforexportal
USD/CHF: KEY-Levels to trade the NON-FARM-PAYROLLSHey tradomaniacs, welcome to a quick preparation for the NON-FARM-PAYROLLS. Here you will see nice entrys to sell and buy. Buy: 0,99534 Sell:0,98423 Targets, Stopp-Loss and Management is up to your trading-style and timeframe you trade. ;-) ----------------------------- LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
by Trading2ez
1
What to Expect from Today's NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! What to Expect from Tonight NFP? THREE SCENARIOS! Above shown three different set of arrows (Three Different scenarios ) Scenario 1 (Green Arrows) >WAY better than expected NFP report (Bullish) Trend line continuation. USDJPY may have a spike and retest before a rejection from the major psychological level of 114.5 before going back down to trend line before retesting again.Breakout will likely to occur. Scenario 2 (Blue Arrows)> Neutral NFP report REMEMBER!! MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT. THEREFORE a not so "Neutral" report may be responded with a dovish spike before potentially forming a Head & Shoulder. Neckline is perfectly formed at 50.0 fib retracement. Scenario 3 (Red Arrows)> Bad NFP report This will be a perfect disasters for bears. Since MARKET PLAYERS AND TRADERS ALREADY ANTICIPATED A GOOD REPORT, A Bad report will likely tank this pair to the 61.8 Fib Support at 113.3 or even lower. A support turned resistance will either form at the 50.0 fib or 61.8 fib. Goodluck Fellas! For my live trades. You could mirror me at cm.pepperstone.com
by dmcjk95
EURUSD NFP Strategy: Into the DipTrade tension between the US and China are contributing to the recent USD strength at the time of this writing. New tariffs on China may lead to a retaliation, causing some nervousness in global markets. As a result the focus on the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may be limited, however, some reaction is often seen when the US employment figures are released. Initiating a trade at market price prior to the NFP may require a larger protective stop due to the volatile market conditions that are often seen upon the release of the figures. Our strategy is fairly straightforward, a buy limit order may be more appropriate. I highlighted on the chart the key levels in EURUSD. Do note that this setup is for experienced technical traders only. An appropriate entry price may be at 1.1547, protective stop layered at 1.1500, targeting 1.1620. The estimated duration for the strategy is no longer than 30 - 45 minutes. The risk ratio is poor but it is a short-term strategy. I must also highlight the risk of exercising the strategy as significant volatility may be seen. Over-leveraging is not encouraged. The aim of the protective stop is to contain losses rather than prevent losses. I will rarely post trade ideas with an entry, stop and take profit in tradingview, this is an exception. In an event EURUSD will continue trading lower prior to the NFP where it is only 40 pips from the entry price I suggest to cancel the order. In an event EURUSD does not trigger the entry within 15 minutes after the release I suggest to cancel the buy limit order.
Long
by DDMARKETS