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Nonfarmpayrolls

US NFP :USDJPY rejected @ 114.90 level 4 times, may be 5th time?Dollar had a longest winning streak in an year's time against yen. Looking both at fundamentals and Technicals pair is in corrective structure since Jan 2017. We believe that US$ will break upwards unless real risk aversion mode prevails market. Such an event is right on the tap, none other but US Non-farm payrolls report, tomorrow. If we look at Jan 2017 labor department report, highlighted in red on the chart, right after the december rate hike. Inflation element of report was poor. Market was expecting .3% increase in avg hourly earnings. Not only report missed it and printed .1% increase but adding insult to the injury previous month .4% increase in avg hourly earnings was revised down to .2%. In last one year US has generated on average 185K job/month. Market expects the 200K a bit above than median average. But as we mentioned the most important element of tomorrow's NFP would be avg-hourly earnings. If missed, market definitely wouldn't like it 3rd time and dollar bulls may have to hold their reins. WAIT AND SEE IS BEST THE STRATEGY.....
by ashfaq.hussain.duggal
USD/ DXY: NFP FAILS TO ANSWER SEPT HIKE & FED LACKER SPEECHThe USD Jobs report missed expectations across the board with the print, earnings and URate the like. Market reaction was interesting to say the least, initally we said dollar trade aggresssively on the offer, however not for long. it was USD bulls who look to have closed the day winning. On reflection this makes sense given fed funds rate held up relatively well only shedding 3pcts, and 150k jobs is still well above the 50-75k target needed to maintain employment levels which have been stated by a few Feds already as "at full employment". USD positioning: Initially I was a $yen bear, however offers there were squeezed out on the break above 104 likely on yen supply as risk markets moved higher and some dollar demand as jobs added was significantly more than Fed Mester said this week was enough to maintain the economy at full employment (50-100k jobs). Instead my focus now has moved to Equities market where I added SPX shorts at 2180 average price and hedged some of that exposure with some pre-existing Apple longs from earlier in the week when EU Tax allegations brought the stock into the low 105s. USD FX trading from here imo will remain very choppy as there once again remains no clear consensus on medium-run positioning/ further hikes from the Fed as US data continues to trade below expectations, thus I will adjust my strategy to suit (tone down FX positioning) whilst look to add some cross asset positions instead. I will however continue to be on the lookout and post if there is any statistical opportunities, as these are tradable in any environment. $Yen I will also watch closely and also GBP Services PMI data on Monday will be vital to STG trades. Fed Lacker Speech Highlights: Fed's Lacker: Fed Rates Should Be 'Significantly Higher' Based On Rules Lacker: Rate Benchmarks Are Good Guide For Setting Fed Policy Lacker: Economy Continues To Make Progress On Jobs, Inflation Lacker: Current Jobless Rate Essentially At Full Employment Level Lacker: Taylor Rule Points To 3.3% Fed Funds Rate For Third Quarter Lacker: Economy Adding Jobs At Double Pace Needed For Population Growth Lacker: Inflation Moving Back To 2% Price Target Lacker: Fed Could Deal With Inflation Problem With Rapid Rate Increases Lacker: Rapid Rate Increases Would Cause Pain To Economy Lacker: More Attention Should Be Paid To Inflation Risks Fed's Lacker: Level of Discouraged Workers Not Historically Elevated Lacker: Some Uncertainty Around Exact Level of Full Employment Lacker: Reverse Repos in Place as Long as Needed, May Not Need in Future
TVC:DXY
by QuantumLogicTrading
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