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ridethepig | NOK for the Yearly Close📌 NOK for the Yearly Close Now comes the traditional complex NOK and SEK map complex. I have mentioned a number of times SEK was in a very good position for sellers, now NOK is joining the disco because it is unlikely that dollar can manage to force the defence. A very amusing chart, for those with a background in waves we are playing the breakdown on a 5 wave multi-decade flow ending. Here we are dealing with a remarkable position for sellers, a staggering -12% downside to go to the nearest support ....meaning the manoeuvre is intended to put pressure on our opponent as one might suppose with capitulation. Invalidation can be defined above the latent outside reversal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
ridethepig | CADNOK Market Commentary 2020.03.02Eyes on the technical breakdown in CADNOK to kickstart the week, a few important updates to make here as intervention begins globally from Central Banks and OPEC. For those tracking Oil you will know we got the massive meltdown that we have been expecting in the chart-pack since last year: I am tracking a much larger than expected cut from OPEC at 1mbpd and would therefore recommend trading a bounce in risk markets. The view of a cut from BoC this week seems a done-deal too - this will start the round of global easing. On the technical side, targeting a fresh breakdown into the stops at 6.8xx. Invalidation is found above the recent highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc!
Short
by ridethepig
1
Sell the Green against NOKWhat are we trading here? Norway is outperforming in the G10, unemployment falling while inflation exceeding expectations. As a result, interest rates are moving in favour of NOK. The hawkish surprise earlier in the week from Norges Bank suggested that more hikes are necessary has been supportive of the currency. A key risk is Oil prices holding firm around current levels (starting to look less likely) and Norwegian data softening (not expected) Best of luck all and thanks for the support with likes, comments and etc.
Short
by ridethepig
Long USDNOKTrade coming 4 hours late it is based on the lower than expected inflation data that came today, as Norway seems to be dragged by Europe. This will lower expectations of interest rate hike in Norway, some of which had been priced in NOK. That pricing is going for some loss. Remember that this is a late trade, SL is poisitioned below February month's low (and open). personally, a TP of 8.95 is very optimistic, may stop at 8.78 to 8.8, and will cancel trade after march 1st, as it is Norway were talking about (with positive trade balance etc...) and not greece or turkey. Will update if action is taken
Long
by ahmedse
SEKNOK: Massive carry, and potential long term top in this pair,SEKNOK is offering an interesting setup in the weekly chart. I'm short, looking to benefit from the positive carry of this pair, and also the topping pattern on chart. I'd reccomend adding to it once we're 1 atr in the money after entry. Currently, we have a valid time at mode sell signal on chart, where the mode nicely matches the previous sharp rally's top. Bearish momentum is evident and we can expect more commitment to come into this pair as time goes by. Holding shorts in this pair, yields a nice carry because of the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Krona's interest rate differential, so I'm sure many will be looking to benefit from it, either trading forward swaps, or by trading currency. (the former seemingly posessing lower risk, but not so easily accesible to most traders unlike the FX cross). Good luck if taking this trade, remember to keep risk below 1%, and stops above the red line on chart. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
EURNOK - My personal fav.I stumbled upon EURNOK over some chance discussions with some members here couple of weeks ago. I took on a short position back then and ever since I kept adding to my positions. This pair also gives +ve rollovers for shorts. This is the weekly chart, which validates the short positions. A descending triangle and RSI divergence on the weekly charts. I don't think its too late to get in on this pair. Today Norges bank had its MPC and it kept interest rates unchanged. There is a bit of recovery, despite being slow. Eurozone... I don't have to say much. Perhaps today's ECB press conference will give clues. Look for selling opportunities on this pair.
Short
by justatrader