Northam just broke out of its cup and handleCup and Handle formed on Northam and the momentum is looking good for upside.
As many brokers and market maker in SA don't allow trading PLatinum, the only next options we have are platinum stocks. So this one is one that is almost mimicking the precious metal.
We are seeing price above 20 and 200MA. And this means it's a High probability analysis...
Target R167.75
Northam
#XPDUSD Palladium reaching long-term accumulation levelsPalladium is starting to pique my interest. After retreating from as high as $3000 at the peak in April 21' - the commodity is now down 65% and reaching interesting long term levels. Firstly the current level at approximately $1025 is where palladium peaked as far as back in January 01' - almost 22 years ago. If this becomes a point of polarity, the previous top(resistance) should start to morph into support. This level was also tested in late December 2017 after not having made new highs for 16 years! To think that the commodity is basically flat from the highest point some 22 years ago is quite something...
What makes this level even more interesting to me is that we have approached the 200 month moving average (green moving average on the chart). Interestingly, this is where the palladium price bottomed back in Late 2016 before rallying almost 500% to reach the Peak of $3000 in April 21'. Also, if you look at the RSI and MACD indicators at the bottom of my chart, you will see just how oversold the commodity is. To put it into perspective, the only time we were more oversold going back to 1997 (which is as far as i can go), was April 2003 where we traded as low as $150...
I would start accumulating here, with scope to add down at $850 should it get there, which is where we find the uptrend connecting the 2008 and 2016 lows. I will be surprised if we get that far, but I will start accumulating from current levels for a move higher. We are so stretched in price here that I do expect some mean reversion to take place in the weeks and months ahead. We are already starting to see mines having to close shafts which is telling you that PGM prices at these levels are not sustainable and something has to give sooner or later...
Northam is showing downside to R145.18 while the markets rallyHead and Shoulders in the making for Northam PLatinum
Since it broke out of the downside and entered into a rising - sideways consolidation - the buyers have just not been able to keep the price up.
We are starting to see negative and bearish signs technically.
21>7 - Bearish
Price approaching 200MA
RSI<50 - Bearish
Target R145.18
CONCERNS:
The main concern is that global markets are flying, resource stocks are sky rocketing along with gold.
The January Effect alone pushed up the JSE ALSI 9% this month.
So we are seeing bullish signs, which could turn up Northam. But for now Northam is bearish.
Northam - Short The stochastic, MACD and the 2 EMA's have all turned downward on JSE:NHM - all signaling a short position. It has, however, been in an uptrend since end of Jan, so we might only see a retracement before a continuation upward. If it does go down, I dont think it will go much further than the support area around 23000.
NHM - Showing some upward momentumJSE:NHM formed a doji candle at a support level two days ago and is looking like it is heading upwards with some momentum. If it continues upwards, I will consider a long position with a potential target just above the 19000 level.
NORTHAM PLATINUMA flat top triangle is forming on Northam. Digressive entry would be to go long now with SL below R54 otherwise wait for a close above R68