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Norwegiankrone

EURNOK to rally=> Here we are arguing from the angle that the bearish sentiment on EURO as mentioned in our previous ideas will fade and begin to position into a solid macro narrative. => Qatar has announced an FX swap agreement with Turkey for $15bn this morning, frankly they might as well wave goodbye to this money with Erdogan at the helm. Short-term however this will provide support for EMU based banks. => ECB's Weidmann has begun talking up policy normalisation as expected and on the other side of the coin we have Italy praying for an extension in QE. pascalToday at 10:00 => Concerns over continued pressure on commodity prices is not painting a pretty picture for NOK. Markets have fully priced in the hike coming in September from Norges Bank and we are starting to see smart money taking profits. => We are targeting 9.80 - 9.90 with stops below the recent 9.50 low => Good luck
Long
by ridethepig
2
SEK advancing remains on the agenda=> For those following our USDSEK idea you will know we believe the negative SEK flow is something that has run its course. => Oil is starting to look very heavy at the highs, the boat is fully loaded with almost 90% are now bullish. In the oven we have more advancements coming on the electric side which will likely show a clear inflexion point for the end of oil as we know it adding further pressure to NOK. => The Riksbank like a deer in the headlights has been put under pressure domestically for allowing the SEK to slide. This will change going forward as the ECB unwinding its asset purchase program begins to take the spotlight in Q4 giving the Riksbank more policy flexibility. => Both NOKSEK and USDSEK shorts make sense moving fwd. => GL all
Short
by ridethepig
NOKUSD vs Crude Oil - will this divergence compress soon?Norwegian Krone is highly correlated to Crude Oil futures (front month), but over the last year it appears to diverge. NOK/USD has continued to slide while Crude stabilised. This could be due to strengthening Dollar, and the low oil prices indicating weaker future economic growth. The blue trend line marks multi-year highs. With prices touching this trend, combined with a relative underperformance of NOK/USD to Crude, this could see NOK/USD break higher, and soon. An interesting pair to watch no less, particularly when there is divergence as seen at the end of 2017, which provides an attractive spread trade of Long NOK/USD Short Crude.
Long
by MVedra