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Novogratz

A massive sell off coming up, 50 % dropBlue lines are the average of BTC's most boring days. We stayed at 6400 for 2 months before it dumped to 3140, so let's say an estimate of 50 % drop. Now the story looks very similar, from 24th November till now we've been hanging around 3680, few dollars up and down which is caused by bots trading. So I can think of only one outcome. Another 50 % drop which will take us to 1900 support. I also used a triangle (pink lines) to make it more visible where we are at right now. My gut is telling me that a massive sell off will happen at the start of next week. I've been sitting in Tether since 4100 so let's see how this plays out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by supremetrejdr
2
BTC - trends' combatHello and please appreciate my first BTC analysis. :) Here I would like to compare 2018 pitchforked downwards trend with a meta-bull trend line that has been growing since August 2015. I’ve drawn these lines during summer holidays and they work fine - respecting our trend-friend. With the current price action we are exactly at the equilibrium. Green line - bullish trend line Green area - downward channel respecting 2018 bear market Violet upper area - sell signal Violet lower area - accumulation signal Due to the conditions we can easily drop one tenth from now - to circa $5050. You should not consider it painful at all. Painful would be short-lived drop to a $3500 area. But, we can also recover to $6000-7000 atm. Respect lower chances of breaking the once-support-now-ceiling. First half of January may bring a huge price action as the longterm bull-run crosses the medium of a bear pitchfork. Happy New Year - happy new deal. Watch out! What this market needs is a use case and regular people using crypto in real life. Only then the market can grow steadily. But the real question is... where is my institutional money, Mr Novogratz? :> P.S.: I recommend Monte-Carlo simulation method over the total market capitalization data. Check out Simulating a Polonged Cryptocurrency Bear Market with the Monte Carlo Method by Anthony Xie. It will give you a bigger picture, folks! P.P.S: Consider different geopolitical factors as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by tojestmihciu
1
The reason why we're not going to fall bellow 6000Is this pitchfork that I've drawn to the downside. As you can clearly see we went through it. The last opportunity for the crash was on 1st of October. Just take a good look at it, it would be a perfect timing. A lot of people say explosive move is coming to the downside or upside, but I disagree with all of them. I think we're just gonna continue sideways and hold the 6500 support. When we break out of the triangle I suspect a move to the upside to 7400 (previous high) and an immediate drop back to 6500. We're in the accumulation zone, it's going to take a while for BTC to start setting new higher highs.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by supremetrejdr
2
The most insane outcomeMarket gets destroyed on 8th of October, last candle left on the daily chart before the breakdown. It goes past 5000 and 4300 because of the people panicking thinking it will go to zero. It bottoms at the most obvious support 2900 and bounces off all the way up to 5444 which will be used as a resistance point and then the horror movie begins all the way down to 1300 where the institutional money is waiting. In that case I'd expect some horifying news coming out, like: Tether and Bitfinex shuts down, Bitmex exit scams etc. Personally I don't believe this is going to happen. I'm just giving you the worst possible outcome to scare the s* out of you. Have a good day! :)
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by supremetrejdr
2