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GBPUSD GBP Long Term Downtrend Now BrokenGBPUSD Sterling/Dollar Long Term Trend Change GBP effectively double bottomed nearly a year ago now. Since then it's been travelling in channel whose penultimate rally recoiled very precisely from the long term dynamic which has clipped all previous rallies back as they rose to touch this powerful last line of bear defence. Below that line they have maintained control of the medium to longer term. That line has now been broken. In classic fashion, GBP has now returned to test the same line from above, currently giving it one last lingering caress before flying higher. It is a buy at current levels down to 1.3312 with stops below 1.3300 for small loss if wrong from here. Upside target is 1.3832 minimum and 1.4043 maximum . So about 500 pips upside and 33 down. The market is in for a surprise coming here, so long as the old long term resistance line can hold up as support over the next few hours. And even if it breaks overnight it looks only likely to spike to a fleeting low at 1.3228 at very lowest as a result and will then likely rally again. Look to buy GBP on any minor weakness with stops as above. If struck look to buy again from 1.3260 with stop 40 pips lower still. For this call to stay good the old long term dynamic must hold now...if it cannot be broken by bears today it's showing us how strong it is before the rally outlined above begins. And even if it breaks lower, so long as it creates a spike of buying interest which takes it back above the the long term dynamic quite quickly, then once again it is showing underlying strength, not weakness. Buy dips until minimum target is reached 500 pips higher.
Long
by sumastardon
DASHUSD Day Traders' Paradise HereDashUSD Last comment was waiting for a flag to develop and looking to buy at 655 which wasn't great considering it spiked to 614. There was no stop advised here as it's so spikey so if you kept your nerve here, hats off. It was hairy. That flag earlier on Dash, now lost in the noise, was a day trader's paradise. This thing moves so far so fast and in such a big range, 10% to 20% in every 24 hour period. Now back towards the top iof its range and likely to unwind between the top two parallels in near term. A good range for day traders to play within. Take profits if still long and pick up some more around 725
BITTREX:DASHUSD
by sumastardon
Litecoin:LTCUSD Be careful if still long now:correction not overLITECOIN: LTCUSD Negative now due to Bicoin weakness Things have taken a turn back into into negative territory for Bitcoin and Litecoin has suffered as a result. What was fine yesterday is now very vulnerable because of Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself is very negative and should fall another 1000 points from here. But it's making a feeble counter rally right now and Litecoin is moving on Bitcoin's back. Be very careful now if long here. It's broken the medium term support - now acting as resistance, a very negative sign and is likely to come off again soon now. Under the line it's facing real bear terrritory and will likely be forced back down to 50 once 75 gives way. Time to be flat right now or short with a stop above 81 for small loss if wrong in near term
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
BTGUSD steady whilst it holds the trend lineBTGUSD BITCOIN GOLD DOLLAR The rally today is thin and grindingly dull, but it's steady. Better to be long with a stop under the little uptrend for the day than flat. But if at any point the day's supporting line is broken it will likely force price down 25 to 30 points to 340-330 range where it becomes a buy once more. This thing has already lost the protection of the bigger trend line which is now acting as resistance. It's not nearly as good looking as BCHUSD, but so long as the this new dynamic holds up it cannot be shorted, only bought, with stops below the parallel until the pattern changes and tells us to reverse.
BLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Getting Real Interesting againBitcoin: BTCUSD Update Getting Interesting Again Now If you held your stops under 7660 as advised at start of weekend the 7717 level has proved a good entry point. However even if stopped out like me for 30 point loss after spending the weekend fishing, losing bait and cursing and never getting a chance to buy from lower, at least now, after breaking above the upper parallel sucesssfully on second attempt (but not hitting stops placed under 7700) we finally have a decent long trade on from 7790 highest. That bear engulfing green candle just now wiped out 34 hours of sideways movement in 30 minutes flat. This is still strong. No sellers. Just a few buyers... we should see another test of the highs very soon. Depending on risk profile and if long from 7717, either close down at 7980-8000 range and be ready to buy again on break above 8020 (using 100 points + profit from this current long as stop for next trade). If it works out you compound winnings so fast it will make your head spin. If wrong you and stop gets hit once it busts above 8020 you break even. Or you can hold the current long and just watch at 8000...if it sticks (before China opens it could do) close out but be ready to recomit later. This could be explosive (and could also be a complete damp squib) . But you'll never win unless you're prepared to play. Good Luck to all those that do.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update - Breakout could be soon nowBitcoin Update Bitcoin is still trying to grind higher, now testing critical near term resistance at 7717 where the fixed and dynamic resistance lines meet on the chart. Even if it's low volume, this breakout, should it occur at any point, should be followed for a move back to 7990-8000 where look to close out and short (only if day trader) with stop 50 points above 8000. Bitcoin is unwinding an overbought condition reached on Friday by trading sideways right at the top, in the space you'd expect a very strong stock to consolidate in. It's not been sold off really, not recoiling as it would do if showing underlying weakness at these levels. ..at some point it's going to beat 8000 by 20 points, could even be this weekend, and when it does it should be followed with stops about 100 points under 8000. But in near term it will likely fall away from here...don't sell it though unless you use a tight stop above the upper parallel. Wait, watch for the break to the upside. Be Lucky
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Bitcoin: BTCUSD This should stay fluid for a while yet, giving day traders a great space to trade in... a break below 6000 for a move back to 5747 (can take 200 or so points on that long from 10 minutes ago now if you want...just trade from line to line shown on the chart...we're looking for a double bottom today to sjow loss of downward momentum and give a chance of getting long...swing traders too look for a double bottom. Bitcoin ain't dead or even dying. Opportunity knocks today. we gotta answer the door. More as it develops.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
6
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Extra care at 6300 level over the next few hoursBitcoin: BTCUSD Update Quiet: No Buyers/No sellers, yet So we got the rally from 6300 - the 6312 level has been constantly mentioned recently as a minimum downside target. And it so happens that 6301 is 20% exactly from the high, a text-book retracement. So am thinking that we need to pay it a little more respect next time we visit it, when this little counter rally ends and try to lay out possible scenarios to watch out for that might tell us when the down-wave is finished: it's struggling to move above 6560 as this is written...so not much more upside now, limited at tops by the middle parallel - before it comes off again. Then comes the next big test for Bitcoin: 6300 must hold, creating a loss of downward momentum and a double bottom, with another pin bar on the 1 hour chart, ideally. And then start studding 6300 with pinbar bottoms over the next 3 or 4 hours if things stay pretty dead, like now. Then it needs to make an intermediate double bottom at 6300 in a fews hours' time, when it gets knocked back from the parallel on the first test, most likely. And then, the second, confirming signal will be issued when Bitcoin manages to break back above the upper parallel and to hold up there on the first retest. That would be the confirming sign that selling pressure is finally over - don't think it is but the chart decides this, not me, more's the pity. Long story short: 6300 deserves a little more respect than it's been given in last post. We look for signs of a potential loss of downward momentum there ... but it's still touch and go...the only other way out of this jam is for Bitcoin to hold up off the medium term dynamic on the next decline and start tracking sideways towards the parallel to its right (on chart)...it's possble - still think that any encounters with the centre parallel will be met with rejection - so swing traders are advised to stay short with stops above 6630 - and if we do see a low made at 6300 and then see the upper parallel broken to upside it's time to get long on next pullback towards the same parallel. Don't think this looks over yet, though - and won't unless we price action similar to that just described. Otherwise, stay short for test of the lower parallel once 6300 gives way.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Next levels of interestBitcoin: BTCUSD Still marvel in amazement at the classical way that this thing behaves...It is a text-book chart of the future for absolute sure. How long can it go on ? Time will tell..no stops at 7830 and above have been touched, so we're still riding this monster as she dives deep, and so far haven't been thrown off her back There is minor support at 6445, then it starts to get more serious and may start whipping around more (so far, the classic nature of this decline has been very kind to us...wasn't even that hard, though managing stops drives all traders nuts.) Next potential support is the uptrend line from lows earlier in the year, and it could get a good bounce from here - and there's a chance it could even be the low...don't think so but we need to keep an eye on it. The ideal low/target is still 6312 ...if this develops into a full blown selling climax we should see a spike to 6312 and then it regain the rising support line at 6355 - depending how she blows, there is still a fair chance that we'll see 6165 touched, but each of the support lines shown on the chart has the potential to create a rally up to the line above it as we reach lower levels. Got to eat sometime. Good luck . And take a look at that parabola again...see how once it breaks below it the game is totally over ? Amazing
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Running on Empty - needs buyers - don't followBitcoin: BTCUSD So far only Corrective/Continuation Running on Empty Bitcoin has at least rallied from the double bottom fake-out low this morning in London but the rally has been feeble so far. Since the low it's formed another little parallel with a bearish upslope, though it does at least have a few pin bars forming off the lower parallel, showing some interest at lower levels.Any green bars quickly hit as the upper parallel is hit as Bitcoin lies trapped in a narrow range too tight to trade even by day-traders now as mean spreads stop the thing almost dead as this is written. It should still grind higher but this is ridiculous now. WTF at 7178? If long be careful, unless we see some green bars emerge soon this is going to fail again. Get out on a break below lower parallel or on test of 7274 if it stays above the parallel from now for 200 points profit if we see it. Only a big green candle is going to save Bitcoin now... It's back in the balance...it really needs a push here. And if it does now fall out of the parallel it's probably time for day traders to start selling too, initially back to 7070-7060 and then harder still if 7050 gives way back to critical support at 6960-6930. As before, this range is last-gasp support for Bitcoin. Any fall below 6900 should be followed by swing traders not too burned by yesterday's debacle, with a stop just above 6960 for a collapse back to 6312 at least and potentially to 6165.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin:BTCUSD Raise stops nowBitcoin: BTCUSD Upload Limit keeps triggering so will try to cover next few hours here, not minutes, which is not exactly easy at best of times... So far so good: support at 7346-7350 has held up well and stops remain good, so far...It's likely to keep running into profit takers in the zone from 7500 up to the highs at 7590 so if you want to close out in this range it's not a bad idea, looking to buy from lower down again or alternatively increase once 7600 (TYPO IN TEXT ON CHART, not 7900 repeat not, breakout is 7600) is broken on the upside (whenever that comes). or use a stop under 7430 to trap in nearly 300 points profit so far) Near term support at 7430 for day-traders, a break below here should see further declines to 7347 to begin with...so suggest a stops as above looking to buy back at 7350 area if tested...but with a stop under 7350 by at least 10 points, because if this level is broken on downside the it will hit 7270 most likely, if not the next listed support at 7137 before bouncing again. Swing traders who didn't catch the break above 7137 last night are advised to sit tight for now, awaiting a break above 7600 to go long with stop 60 points below to begin with.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: Moving FastBitcoin: BTCUSD 3 minutes too late... The fall from the right hand shoulder peak at just below the next long trigger at 7425 has been greater than expected for sure. Any stops under buy orders at 7250 have been blown away. Not good. Any day-trading profits from upside earlier to 4725 neck line now reducedby the bad recent long if buy orders at 7300 were implemented creating a 60 point or so loss. Bad one. Sorry. So now it's flipping around below resistance at 7260-7280 and whilst unable to break above here 7280 and hold it's still vulnerable to more selling pressure. We can easily come back to 7135 and 7077 again if 2780 keeps stopping rally attempts from here. Pattern not good in near term..a break below 7200 triggering that next decline to 7135 and then, if this fails back to 7077. The day belongs to day-traders so far: would rather play short side for now...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon