NPN
UPDATE: Naspers target to R1,591 on the way - WARNINGWe'll get into what happened to Naspers in a bit, or just scroll down...
But I need to mention something, that not many people know.
About two years ago, I stopped trading Naspers.
It was so rigged and manipulated between many factors and alogrithms.
1. First with TenCent, then with Prosus.
Then with prop funds who just make money with the incremental moves throwing in 1s and manipulating the market on only technicals.
Well, we sent out a short potential analysis as we expected the price to drop.
A Strong M Pattern formed. Broke down. Next few days gapped up and almost reached the stop loss.
Today the price dropped over 17%. And now it looks like there's further downside to come.
But don't take my word for it because Naspers is probably one of the most difficult markets to probability predict.
Let's get into the basics of the fundamentals that took place today:
WHAT HAPPENED TO NASPERS AND PROSUS?
#1: Naspers and Prosus, the global internet and media companies, experienced a significant plunge in their share prices on Friday due to new Chinese tech regulations impacting Tencent.
#2: Beijing unveiled measures aimed at curbing spending in online games, affecting major players in the tech sector, including Tencent.
#3: The share prices of Naspers and Prosus fell sharply by 17% and 14%.
#4: The decline was triggered by concerns over the potential impact of the regulatory changes on Tencent and other companies operating in the sector.
Naspers after a long YEAR fight - Bears have wonIt's been a trying time for Naspers Media company.
Since January 2023, up until October 2023.
The price has moved in a sideways range and has failed to break either way.
That was un 18 October 2023, where the price pierced through a solid neckline of an M Formation,
Since then, it's entered into bear market territory along with the JSE ALSI 40.
The signs are all pointing down for now and we are more selling to come.
Other indicators show downside.
200>21>7
RSI<50
Target R2,367.00
#NPN Naspers range bound - holding bottom of boxNaspers has been trading in a very sideways fashion over since the beginning of the year with support evident in the 2920-2980 area with resistance at 3400 - 3570 on the upside. Most likely with a nibble at the bottom of the range which looks to be holding for now
Naspers UPDATE on its way to the target at R4,000Falling Wedge Formation is evident on the daily chart.
The price is still consolidating around the apex.
We need the price to break up and out of it to confirm upside to come.
7=21
Price >200
RSI>50
Target R4,000
ABOUT THE COMPANY 2023
Naspers was founded in 1915 as a newspaper publisher in South Africa.
The company is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
Naspers is one of the largest media and technology companies in the world.
The company's most valuable asset is its stake in Tencent Holdings, a Chinese multinational conglomerate that operates several popular social media and gaming platforms.
Naspers is the largest shareholder in Tencent, owning approximately 31% of the company.
In addition to its stake in Tencent, Naspers also has significant investments in other internet and technology companies, including Mail.ru, Delivery Hero, and Prosus.
Naspers' core businesses include online classifieds, payments and fintech, food delivery, and education technology.
The company operates in over 120 countries.
Naspers was one of the early investors in the Chinese e-commerce giant, Alibaba, and made a substantial profit when the company went public in 2014.
The company also owns the South African online retailer, Takealot.
Naspers has a market capitalization of over $100 billion as of April 2023.
In 2019, Naspers spun off its international internet assets into a separate company called Prosus, which is listed on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange.
UPDATE: Naspers in the money - Short Target R2,766We had a confirmation break with Naspers Inv Cup and Handle.
The price broke to the downside and now it shows strong falling to come.
7=21 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target R2,766.00
This coincides with the fall in JSE and other markets since the SVB collapse. I expect more Blue Chip stocks to tank until the world enters some type of equilibrium and solace.
JSE:NPN NASPERS Do Not Get Sucked into Yesterdays RecoveryWe have been following the markdown of Naspers - see posts below. Yesterday there was a sharp recovery but one should not get caught up and think it is time to go long. Naspers remains week and the current bounce is just a retest of the yearly pivot levels. Naspers remains weaker than the market and there are no indications of a recovery. The bounce may indicate a consolidation range is starting, but it still looks like more weakness to come.
$JSENPN Back at its 200 week ma/ema, bounce incoming?the 200 day moving average/exponential moving average has been a great level of support for naspers over the last 3 years. Will the stock bounce again at this level? If history is anything to go by -Odds favor a bounce, but let's see how this unfolds
JSE:PRX Prosus Going SouthAs expected Prosus keeps following Naspers down - see posts below. However, Prosus is weaker than Naspers and has already broken the yearly pivot point and the recent redistribution remained below this. Again the high volume selling is seen indicating some urgency to dump the stock. Today we see the breakout of the recent redistribution trading range and this week could see more panic selling.
JSE:NPN Naspers Breakout Following the markdown of Naspers - see posts below. After a smaller redistribution range, we are seeing a break out of this smaller range today continuing the push lower. The next important level down is the yearly pivot point at R2800. In the smaller redistribution range, there was a particularly high volume upthrust (ut) indicating the selloff is gaining momentum and some panic selling is happening.
Naspers Buy Looking at long opportunities on NPN with the market having corrected to retest the breakout from the previous monthly high. Market is poised to move higher to break previous monthly highs.
Prosus NV and Tencent Holdings Ltd. are investing in European online-trading group BUX, giving the internet giants a greater foothold in the fast-growing sector.
The Dutch e-commerce group and Chinese developer of the WeChat app led a funding round of $80 million that BUX will use to expand its zero-commission investment platform.
With increased investments in its e-commerce space, this will give investors more confidence on the company's future share growth. E-commerce is a continuous market space that is vast in opportunities to diversify investments.
JSE:NPN Naspers Gaining MomentumFollowing the distribution of Naspers - see the links to 5 posts below - we have had another test of the highs with rejection on above-average volume and spread. The markdown in the Wyckoff method Phase D labelling is gaining momentum. This is confirming my original evaluation of a distribution.
JSE:NPN Naspers Markdown in Phase D DistributionFollowing the weakness in Naspers - see posts below - since December we are now being marked down in Phase D as defined by the Wyckoff distribution range. We have seen a couple of tests of the highs that have failed and we are likely seeing a transfer of stock from strong to weak hands. We are now anticipating a break of the upsloping distribution range. Distributions can often be quite dramatic so watch for some sudden moves. Manage your risk.
Naspers - an interesting growth stockThe poster child of the South African stock market over the last several years has undoubtedly been Naspers, with its largest holding in Tencent.
I’ve tried to come to grips with the company and its individual parts which will take a bit more time, however, several things become apparent in the information at hand.
Naspers has been able to grow its revenue at a phenomenal rate for more than a decade. Its revenue peaked in in 2016 with a fall of over 50% in its 2017 reported revenue. Since then, its continued to grow its revenue and earnings per share.
Its average free cash flow margin over the last 5 reported years ending 2020, is around -2.71%. Its average EBITDA over the last 5 reported years ending 2020, is also negative at around -6.51%.
This typically isn’t an issue if the company continues to grow its revenue as it has in the past whilst investing in new and exciting ventures.
Its debt to revenue has steadily been increasing and now sits at over 100%.
There are a few concerns that I have regarding the “health” of the company’s financials, however, it needs to be taken into perspective with the future growth strategy of the company.
Based on the chart it appears that a wedge pattern has formed above the long-term channel. Maybe this suggests a possible breakout within the next 2-3 weeks?
Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
JSE:NPN Naspers Reversal BarI started to look at the signs of weakness in Naspers in December - see post below - but after a good rally in January I thought that I may have read things incorrectly. However, now after an upthrust action and failed test of the highs on lower volume, we have seen a significant reversal bar. The size of the daily bar is larger than any bar for some time. This could mean that following the Wyckoff theory that we have only now seen the up trust (UT) and test in Phase C and a markdown in phase D is likely to start and then further down the line a further markdown out of the distribution up sloping trading range.