NPN
Naspers - Possible downward move coming up.JSE:NPN has been trending upward since mid-March and with today's opening, it finally broke below the trendline that has formed. Although unconfirmed as of yet, this could mean a move to the downside. I'll be keeping an eye on what happens here next week for a possible short position.
$JSENPN $JSEPRX Its raining Head & Shoulders in Naspers & ProsusWe are developing a scary head and shoulders top formation in both Naspers and Prosus. Should we convincingly break below the necklines of the respective charts at approximately R2376 and R1050 respectively, we have downside targets some 18.6% and 13.6% away from current levels on Naspers and Prosus. (Price targets if H&S formation plays out, NPN : R2014, PRX: R927)
NPN ReversalJSE:NPN has shown a bullish harami which is a strong reversal signal. This pattern formed at a previous resistance level which strengthens the signal.
We can expect a downward move as the stochastic is also turning.
If all goes well, w can expect it to go all the way down to the support at around 280000 and we will exit the trad if it breaks through the resistance at around 318000
JSE:NPN Road map for the week ahead.2018/11/05Currently we have a failed breakout in play of the October balance below 2920. We could revisit the 2 High Volume areas of the balance at 2723 and 2573. This Is my primary scenario A. Alternatively, scenario B, NPN stabilizes above 2920 level for a shot higher back to 3000 and above. Levels in RED are intra-day levels to watch.
NASPERS LICKING ITS WOUNDS - IS RELIEF IN SIGHT?Established in South Africa in 1915, Naspers Limited is a media, internet and entertainment powerhouse with a footprint in more than 130 countries, and is one of the largest technology investors in the world today. The group’s principal operations are in e-commerce, video entertainment, print and online media.
Naspers shares have continuously been one of the JSE stocks, outperforming the all share index by almost 300%. Investors who decided to buy R 10 000 worth of Naspers shares in 2001, would be sitting on a return of more than R 1 million.
That is a fantastic record but a very large part of this performance is based on a really well timed purchase into the Chinese tech giant, Tencent. This presents a challenge for Naspers going forward because Tencent has plummeted in value on concerns that it can no longer keep scaling it's revenues. This is evident with the fall in Naspers share price. Naspers is also releasing MultiChoice in order to list as a separate entity under MultiChoice Group which may be adding to some serious uncertainty as this weakens their business diversity.
Let's look at the technicals
Weekly (pink): We can see that price has broken through a significant support trend line and there is a lot of supply in the market at this level, driving the price further. The break of the 38.2% Fib retracement level also indicates that the lower 50% retracement level is on the cards.
Daily (blue): This setup looks like a typical correction with the impulse on the left, the corrective structure and then the impulse on the right expected after 3 or 5 waves. I think it is quite possible that we will see the end of wave 3 on the 50% retracement level and will be looking for a reversal from there. We may also see a deeper correction so it is important to wait for the reversal to be confirmed before jumping into this one.
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Happy trading!
Linton White
Green Box Markets
Flash note: Hang Seng 50 Future/Tencent + ADR /NasperAccording to Lester Davids, Trading Desk analyst at Unum Capital:
"Some positivity on the Tencent Chart - Could be a driver tomorrow.
- Bullish Divergence
- Extended well below it's 200dma (HK$404)
- Chinese market sentiment overwhelming negative"
Contact the Trading Desk on +27 (0)11 3842920 or tradingdesk@unum.co.za to discuss.