Nq!
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles.
The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately.
The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong.
My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393).
I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next.
Follow my research.
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that.
May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
Nasdaq Bounce from L-MLHWhat a drag yesterday.
The red Fork gives us very good context.
We see how price reacted two times at the Center-Line.
Then came the "Flush" throu the CL with no pull-back.
No Mercy!
This move brought us down to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. From here price starts to bounce.
It's also a level where NQ had support (see left side).
So far, divergence with the RSI is confirming a good potential for a bounce.
But I don't believe in this support, until we break the downsloping "Change In Behaviour" line. Price must prove that is has enough strenght.
If this CIB line gets broken, I expect a pullback to it.
This would be the level where I would stalk a long entry, with a target at the Center-Line.
Happy Hump-Day Tr8dingN3rds
Nasdaq - Bounce from here or tankWow, what a nice day today.
I shorted the NQ all day intraday.
Now on the bigger picture, it's decision time BabyNQ ;-)
Either the Bulls can pick it up, or it will flush below the red Center-Line.
I could imagine that the NQ will bunce from here, as it's the right time in the day and the Confluence with the CL.
Let's see...
Weekly Plan NQ Futures Week Of 9-2409/25 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures December ESZ2023.
Weekly Pivot is 14,988
Targets
15,151 9/20 gap top
15,361 last week's vpoc
15,514 prior 5D balance half back
Targets
14,816 250% extension of 5D balance break down
14,628 300% extension of 5D balance break down
15,526 6/8 gap bottom
Now trading at 14,880 NQZ
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 14,880.
Weekly pivot at 14,98.
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
Prior day balance zone is H15,714, HB15,535, L15,352
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
DEVELOPING. NQ 60-min. Long/Bounce.Looking to play tech for a bounce here. Demand Zone is sourced from 60-minute chart within the context of longer-term timeframes. As overarching market structure is somewhat of a concern, look to harvest short-term profits quickly and leave runners for intermediate-term swing long if able. Safety first!
NQ1!, Rollover, OPEX and etc.Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are not comfortable with reading the price action or does not have a grasp on what price levels are important. Market action creates a lot of noise and may derail any professional. My approach is to go to a higher timeframe to filter out the noise and most important to focus on the important price levels.
A Fib retracement on the chart gives those projected levels to focus on. Here is my price action dissection: multiple attempts to get over the 61.8% have failed, the price is pushed back hard to retest the levels below. I added a new rectangle as the area of interest. I do not attempt to predict whether those level hold or not. I let the market to show that. In my view, the price is stuck in a large consolidation area since June, a few fake outs in August pushed the price back in the middle of that consolidation. Usually, the middle of a consolidation area is where the price oscillates while both sides make attempts to gain control and this is exactly what we see since the last week of August.
09/16/2023
Learn To Trade Breakout/Flags More Efficiently - Part IIn my first tutorial, I tried to show how price channels can be used to identify and validate strong trade setups. Additionally, I attempted to show you how to identify better trade setups from what I consider invalid trade setups.
Understanding and maintaining at least a 2:1 Reward-to-risk factor for any trade you consider taking is essential. Secondly, it is essential to understand and use proper allocation levels for trades.
The simple way to understand allocation levels is to focus on the RISK amount. If your trade risks $5 per share and you can't afford to risk $500 on this trade, then you should NOT attempt to trade 100 shares of this stock.
Set your risk level based on how much you intend to risk for the trade - nothing more.
If you can only risk $250, then you would only trade 50 shares.
If you can only risk $125, then you would only trade 25 shares.
Learning to find and identify proper trade setups on Daily and Weekly charts is critical for success in the long run. I firmly believe price tells us everything we need to know about a chart, and indicators reflect price.
As you continue to learn some of the techniques I use in various price chart setups, I hope you can refine your techniques to become better traders.
I will likely create a PART II and PART III version of these types of advanced trade setups.
Hope you enjoy.
Weekly analyze for NQU2023Hello fellow trader.
in my analyze for this week 09/03/2023 i project a down close candle for NQU2023 if u open your weekly chart u will see the NQ reached an weekly Bearish OB and respected it, then if you move to the daily chart u will see a BISI/fvg bellow and a daily bullish OB i think the market will target that level for the upcoming days or weeks if we stay bellow the weekly Bearish OB ofc
NQ1!, The Contract Rollover GameTo start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm referring to the Fib retracement.
9/9/2023
Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week.
Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300.
Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560.
We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful.
Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June.
That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions.
But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market.
The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot.
When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head.
The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down.
What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation.
Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce.
A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase.
The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased.
Expiry date is September 29.
Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks.
And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes.
A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not:
And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes.
The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns.
You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair.
And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it.
The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs.
The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy.
"But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999.
Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world.
And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare.
Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol.
So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged.
But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply.
"Watch Out For Fire."
The call:
Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000.
Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out.
Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses.
Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators.
But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
NQ1!, Market Keeps on TeasingIn the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside continuation to the channel mid, if not than the 23.6% is the next downside target. In the environment with high level of uncertainty focusing on small areas is a mechanism to protect yourself from a headache.
09/02/2023
NQ - A gift from the trading gods?To me this is indeed a gift from the trading gods.
Price retests the U-MLH a third time.
So, if you missed the entry (see my website & YT channel), then this is another chance to bake some Bread, instead of Donuts.
My stop would be a couple points above the pivot high.
Watch my videos and posts about this trade to understand it!
NQ1!, Failed Attempt to Regain ControlA volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is
a horizontal development (consolidation) to build enough energy to either regain the channel bottom or resume the downside. A premature move up, thanks to one company earnings, had failed but don't assume it is over for the buyers. My scenario 2 is a push lower, could be premature as well.
Assumptions/predictions are the source of frustration and losses.
Let the market show which scenario is in play and tag along with no questions asked.
08/26/2023
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire.
And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt.
This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies.
There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong.
Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week.
What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world.
The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy.
Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one.
Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot.
If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%.
The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party.
Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble.
Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index?
It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause.
And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population.
Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason.
What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night.
Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first.
But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered.
It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet.
It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible.
So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on?
Have we bottomed?
What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday.
If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed.
And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity.
The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this:
1. Dumping hard into October
2. Retracing it all into December
3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud.
I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes.
It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?Snowflake, a Nasdaq company, has earnings looming post-market, which has IV on weekly calls and puts juiced to 150%.
Yet people are still gambooling on the next big instawin. The problem is you'll blow your account and won't need TradingView anymore and won't be able to have any fun in your community.
Really, a far better proposition if you want 5 and 8:1 odds on things that are like 10 or 20:1 against to hit is to deposit on a sportsbook and put the same risk into a 3-bet parlay on late season MLB.
If you're right you'll even get paid the same day and not have to mess around with charts and bars all day.
Snowflake is one of the tech sector dump casualties, but has never bounced.
The monthly shows very clearly we're simply sitting in $90 worth of range spanning almost a year and a half.
And while $90 in range is pretty good, the problem is that it doesn't pump. There will eventually be a change in market structure and the most likely target is under $110.
Weekly bars show us that the May low has been taken out before earnings, and this is a factor that is not consistent with bank/fund sponsorship to take out the highs.
Which hints to us that the largest players who can move the market of a company that is still valued at $49 billion while printing $650~ million in quarterly revenue are probably targeting the bottom of "the flag" and not the top.
While the failure swing at $190 forms a double top and becomes a target, the problem is that everything is set up, with Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve and the world's most critical financial policy decision pending on Friday, to continue to correct and correct violently into the fourth quarter.
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The End
Moreover, a lot of the worldwide economic situation is being heavily driven by what's going on Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he still hasn't thrown away.
Word in the Western media is that the regime's de facto state run corporations, for whatever reason, are sitting on something like $3 or $4 trillion in real estate debt that's about to explode in their hands.
There's still the problem of natural disasters like the Beijing floods, economic calamities like the International Rules Based Order jawing and chattering about "de-risking" from China, and the impact of the virus that has claimed many, many more people than the few hundred thousand the CCP has officially reported to John Hopkins for the official trackers.
Worst of all is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners looms over the head of the Party. Even though Xi isn't responsible for the persecution and hasn't participated, it was done by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the toad faction nested in Shanghai-Babylon, Xi is the one with his head in the prisoners' box because he's now the Chairman of the Party.
And on top of that is an epidemic of arsons masquerading as climate change that have burned to death tens of thousands of hectares of trees and forests and their associated plants and animals.
This world is out of control, but it's not allowed to stay out of control for long.
And while it's on the brink, you're being told to get long by furus, Discord, Telegram, Wechat, Stocktwits, and Reddit, and are happy to take the bait, because you don't see the danger.
So here's what's up for SNOW on earnings.
A really likely theory is that it doesn't do much at all because the option sellers will just hold the price where it is in advance of Jackson Hole, let IV decline, collect all the premium from you as everything expires worthless on Friday and laugh.
And somewhere along the way, Snowflake will have a $12 retrace to bring in breakup traders and take out short sellers to $165. But this $165 will be another form of optimal short entry to target the $100 mark before Q4 expires.
If there's to be upside on this stock, based on the length of time and range of the chop and the specific price action amid the overall market and macro conditions, it would be a lot more likely to come after the lows get taken.
Be careful.