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NQ1!, Failed Attempt to Regain ControlA volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is a horizontal development (consolidation) to build enough energy to either regain the channel bottom or resume the downside. A premature move up, thanks to one company earnings, had failed but don't assume it is over for the buyers. My scenario 2 is a push lower, could be premature as well. Assumptions/predictions are the source of frustration and losses. Let the market show which scenario is in play and tag along with no questions asked. 08/26/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The EndFor whatever reason, the thing about traders is they don't like to go short and they don't like to buy puts. This is primarily because of being conditioned by the market makers during bull runs and bull impulses that it's just literally lighting money on fire. And so once a real correction begins, some people buy the dip the entire way down, averaging down, dollar cost averaging, and really get hurt. This is especially true during that initial phase where the saying "The trend is your friend, until the end," applies. There was a lot of enthusiasm on the social media last night and today about shorts "being made to cover" ahead of Jackson Hole, and for all criticism of this early enthusiasm aside, the logic actually isn't wrong. Right now we retraced to a key gap, took out two lows along the way, and this is the best bounce there's been on the SPX and Nasdaq in a week. What we did is receive, on no news, a 2.5% bounce heading into the August 25 Federal Reserve Jackson Hole event, where Jerome Powell will hold a press conference and issue policy that will dictate the next 12 months to the entire world. The problem with Jackson Hole from a game theory perspective is both that it triggered a mega dump last year, while this year, especially if you've bothered to take even a cursory read of the FOMC press conference transcripts published on the Wall Street Journal's website, there's not a single reason to believe Powell is going to say anything about an oncoming or imminent pivot or change in policy. Pivots, generally, come at the bottoms of the market, for one. Next, inflation, in reality, is not as bad as it was before, but when Powell tells you 2% is the target is the target is the target and you're getting excited about 3.8%, keep in mind that 80% is a lot. If you had 80% on NVDIA you'd have $300 a share. If NVDIA did a 100:1 split you'd have 30 cents a share representing an 80 percent move. This is how math works and it's why 3.8% is still really, really far away from 2.00%. The second biggest problem the markets have is the situation with China, Xi Jinping, and the Chinese Communist Party. Whatever the fundamental cause truly is, the economy in China is in big time, escalating trouble. Have you looked at the Hangseng Tech Index? It's dropped 17% in a month. Imagine if the SPX dropped 800 points in September and the noise and chaos that would cause. And this is the world's most critical country, one of the largest economies, an economic manufacturing and spending hub, and the place that formerly had the largest population. Everything in this world is tied to China because it is the hub and the rest of the world is the spoke. In Chinese, the country is called "Zhongguo," literally "Central Kingdom" for a reason. What everything is portending is an upcoming very public disaster for the CCP and Xi Jinping. That disaster, however, may be Xi Jinping throwing away the CCP in the middle of the night. Xi dumping the CCP will cause a significant Earthquake and Tsunami in the financial markets. But the after effects may actually cause what appears to be a boom, at least at first. But whether President Xi does or does not dump the CCP, the 24-year-long organ harvesting persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners, is a sin so egregious that it will simply not go unanswered. It is a skeleton in the closet hanging over the head of very literally almost every major corporation, billionaire, and government on this entire planet. It's something you really have to educate yourself with, and I would recommend reading the Minghui website and looking at Shen Yun Performing Arts and Shen Yun Creations to learn more as soon as possible. So when it comes to the Nasdaq, is this a rally that you can go long on? Have we bottomed? What we experienced today is a no-news Monday after a raid on the low following August options expiry on Friday. If price action revisits 15,250 you still cannot say we have bottomed. And then the problem is, this "bottomed" can simply include a run to 16,000 or a breaker-raid to 16,500. Of course, a 5% move on indexes is well worth going long, never short, but too many equities and all the commodities do not indicate that it's really time to go long in any meaningful capacity. The most painful scenario for BOTH bulls AND bears is this: 1. Dumping hard into October 2. Retracing it all into December 3. 2024 opens as a disaster that only DONALD TRUMP can save us from, if he manages to escape 295,999,999 years in jail for Xeeeeeeeeeting about election fraud. I say the above to point out to you what total balderdash the prevailing narratives and brainwashing are and that you should really look at things with clear eyes. It's only us small follower accounts who don't get promoted very often that even have the chance to tell you the Truth.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
1
Snowflake - Is It Time To Stop Gambling On Chop?Snowflake, a Nasdaq company, has earnings looming post-market, which has IV on weekly calls and puts juiced to 150%. Yet people are still gambooling on the next big instawin. The problem is you'll blow your account and won't need TradingView anymore and won't be able to have any fun in your community. Really, a far better proposition if you want 5 and 8:1 odds on things that are like 10 or 20:1 against to hit is to deposit on a sportsbook and put the same risk into a 3-bet parlay on late season MLB. If you're right you'll even get paid the same day and not have to mess around with charts and bars all day. Snowflake is one of the tech sector dump casualties, but has never bounced. The monthly shows very clearly we're simply sitting in $90 worth of range spanning almost a year and a half. And while $90 in range is pretty good, the problem is that it doesn't pump. There will eventually be a change in market structure and the most likely target is under $110. Weekly bars show us that the May low has been taken out before earnings, and this is a factor that is not consistent with bank/fund sponsorship to take out the highs. Which hints to us that the largest players who can move the market of a company that is still valued at $49 billion while printing $650~ million in quarterly revenue are probably targeting the bottom of "the flag" and not the top. While the failure swing at $190 forms a double top and becomes a target, the problem is that everything is set up, with Jackson Hole as the Federal Reserve and the world's most critical financial policy decision pending on Friday, to continue to correct and correct violently into the fourth quarter. Nasdaq Futures - The Trend Is Your Friend, Until The End Moreover, a lot of the worldwide economic situation is being heavily driven by what's going on Mainland China with Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party he still hasn't thrown away. Word in the Western media is that the regime's de facto state run corporations, for whatever reason, are sitting on something like $3 or $4 trillion in real estate debt that's about to explode in their hands. There's still the problem of natural disasters like the Beijing floods, economic calamities like the International Rules Based Order jawing and chattering about "de-risking" from China, and the impact of the virus that has claimed many, many more people than the few hundred thousand the CCP has officially reported to John Hopkins for the official trackers. Worst of all is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners looms over the head of the Party. Even though Xi isn't responsible for the persecution and hasn't participated, it was done by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and the toad faction nested in Shanghai-Babylon, Xi is the one with his head in the prisoners' box because he's now the Chairman of the Party. And on top of that is an epidemic of arsons masquerading as climate change that have burned to death tens of thousands of hectares of trees and forests and their associated plants and animals. This world is out of control, but it's not allowed to stay out of control for long. And while it's on the brink, you're being told to get long by furus, Discord, Telegram, Wechat, Stocktwits, and Reddit, and are happy to take the bait, because you don't see the danger. So here's what's up for SNOW on earnings. A really likely theory is that it doesn't do much at all because the option sellers will just hold the price where it is in advance of Jackson Hole, let IV decline, collect all the premium from you as everything expires worthless on Friday and laugh. And somewhere along the way, Snowflake will have a $12 retrace to bring in breakup traders and take out short sellers to $165. But this $165 will be another form of optimal short entry to target the $100 mark before Q4 expires. If there's to be upside on this stock, based on the length of time and range of the chop and the specific price action amid the overall market and macro conditions, it would be a lot more likely to come after the lows get taken. Be careful.
NYSE:SNOW
by LordWrymouth
SPY - Are You Prepared If We Haven't Bottomed?When I made my July 29 call on the ES SPX Futures here: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg We had anticipated that a retrace to the highs or a raid on the highs was on deck. And yet throughout August, price action has been extremely bearish across all commodities, indexes, equities, and bonds. We very suddenly went from talk of a new bull market to a dip that doesn't rip. In my August 5 call on QQQ, I note that the January of '22 fail pivots, which ended the bull market, that were taken out on all three indexes have not been raided on the ETFs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? And although today's August 18 options expiry price action took out a key low, the bounce we got was also lethargic. On the 25th, the Federal Reserve will hold the press conference for the Jackson Hole event, which will not involve a rate hike, but a forward-looking statement of economic policy by Jerome Powell. Last year, this day hallmarked the nuke of the markets. This year, it may very well do the same when the bond market has to accept that 6% Fed Funds Rates are on deck before '24 and 6.5% may be on deck before Q2. The other bearish catalyst is the rapidly degenerating economic condition in Mainland China, which is still ruled by the Chinese Communist Party Xi Jinping has yet to throw away. I've heard that Evergrande is defaulting and that's put something like 1/3rd of a trillion dollars of commercial real state into the fire. The Yuan isn't in good shape. The whole country is in terrible shape because of the effects of the pandemic. The losses are a lot worse than what you see reported by the CCP to John Hopkins and presented on places like Our World In Data. This is really the key cornerstone of everything going on in the world right now. I have been warning about this ad nauseum in everything I post, and I think people will begin to understand what I have meant, and why I have said it, as changes in this world unfold in the next six months. China is a key market for Apple, and Apple is something of a pillar of the U.S. equities market, and yet, after the big earnings correction, it seems as if $198 was the ultimate top. Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... And Tesla. with its Shanghai Gigafactory in Babylon and its reliance on the Chinese market, has just been an absolute disaster. Tesla - What To Expect Until September? Traders are often slow to react. "The trend is your friend, until the end," they say, and correctly. When we look at SPY on the monthly, we see that it's taken a monthly low for the first time since February. And when we look at it on the weekly, we get even greater clarity. And although sub 4,400 really ought to have been a place that it bounces to retrace and retest the tops at 4,650, the fact is that price action is not showing a willingness to bounce and take out upside targets. So far, what it has told us is that longers are trapped. And if longers remain trapped even after we take out the July low, it's safe to posit that the next target to the downside would be the June low at ~$416. "$416 what a fairy tale!" is what a lot of people say, and yet this is only 5% away from where we are now. Only 200 more points down before there's a chance of a possible reversal. In other words, these targets are not that far away. If they really are traded to, it becomes increasingly unlikely that there's going to be any kind of a retrace to the top, considering JP Morgan is some 15,800 contracts long on 4,225 SPX puts expiring Sept. 29 that have never been in the money. And so I want to say to everyone that the sooner you can flip your bias from bull to bear, perhaps the better. It may not be until Q4 that we see a bounce with how things are unfolding.
AMEX:SPYShort
by LordWrymouth
1
NQ - Nasda Test/Retest, now down.NQ had a phenomenal run-up since yesterday. It was hard to find any sign of weakness. In the 15 min. TF I found the correct Fork to apply that gives me any usable information about price. 1. The Shiff-Fork projects price to the upside, but also expose the fact that price fell out of the projection below the L-MLH. 2. Price stopped at the HVN. Or better, the Algos bought price at that level (violett line). 3. Price had it's first "Test" of the L-MLH, and soon after the second one, interfering with the TL from way above. Such "coincidence" I call "Confluence". 4. My Scalping filters, the Indicators also signaled that it's time to give it a go. 5. Finally I observed the Bid/Ask Volume and saw large order got thrown at the Bid. This is my ticket to ride and I'm short the market.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
Tuesday, August 22 Market Update - BTC, ETH, DXY, SPX, NQGeneral Market update focusing on Bitcoin. Bitcoin breakdown is still not being supported with significant spot buying as the March dump was, overall volume is low. ETH looks much worse however has the ability to gain some local levels and move higher. Both BTC and ETH are ranging and building liquidity. The SP500 and the Nasdaq are still rallying and have the ability to regain significant levels, however, higher timeframe they are both overdue for a retracement. Locally they are having an upside bounce but generally and higher timeframe they are still having a retracement. The Dollar Currency Index is still strong continuing it's rally from mid July. the DXY is generally looked at as having inverse correlation to TradFi and Crypto with both experiencing highs as DXY made its mid July lows. The DXY is currently at resistance from the Yearly Open and any gain of that could indicate further downside.
by TrendmasterOfficial
Nasdaq Ready For Push Up?Looking at the nasdaq futures market we can see price has been down trending for approximately the last month. While this down trend will probably continue a significant squeeze / retrace of the trend at some point should be expected. The question is when would we expect to see this correction. This is an hourly line chart on the log scale for micro nasdaq futures "MNQ" and we can see price is currently approaching a significant level of support. The last local push down has a very impulisive 5 wave structure to it causing a falling wedge to form with a potential reversal point right at our significant support level of $14,850. Given a clear reversal signal at this level a retace of the current down swing will be likely with two significant levels above to watch for a reversal and continuation to the downside for potentialy much lower prices. As price has been dropping it has formed a descending channel with a target area from our current level at the 15-15100 area. Also measuring from the top of the swing to this potential bottom the 50% retrace level at 15,350 is lining up very nicely with what would create a much larger head and shoulders pattern. Trade Well.................
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by Degen-Dynasty
Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip...Apple has really been, perhaps arguably, the key reason the bear market rally has been as extreme as it has in 2023. Looking back to January, there really has not been even a single genuinely bearish day. But with Q2 earnings as a catalyst, we now have signs of a genuine and significant reversal pattern, and at an all time high. It's very evident on monthly bars. Weekly bars are even more obvious, showing that today, we took the July low, and there's no luft to the bounce. Long is a bad trade and short is now a good trade, is what we're being told. "The trend is your friend, until the end" is a saying with a lot of wisdom. If you can figure out you've ran into "the end" in the first few hours, then you really will be a lucky person. A lot of people may be about to blow their accounts trying to buy that dip, which they've been conditioned to do so like Pavlov's dog and his bell. Apple is a company that's maintained close ties, all these years, to the Chinese Communist Party. You should always remember there is a difference between "China" and "the CCP." China is a 5,000 year old country with a culture of dynasties that were imparted since the Great Flood by the Divine. The CCP is a 100-year-old Red Demon whose existence was arranged to destroy humanity, the Earth, and the Cosmos itself. Xi Jinping has ruled both China and the CCP since 2012, and it's both a blessing and a curse for him. If Xi isn't intelligent enough to go Gorbachev-style and overthrow the Party in the middle of the US night, then Xi will go down in history as the leader of the rogue regime at the end, and will be responsible for everything it has done in history. This includes the 24-year-long persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual cultivators. Although the persecution was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin and conducted by the toad's faction all these years, and Xi has been killing and bankrupting the rogue faction's minions in the Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem with being tagged as the CCP's leader is that the head is always the first thing you cut off with the guillotine. So, here's the thing for Apple. I expect Apple to take the $176.93 July low, probably sometime next week, based on how the markets are reacting. From there, we may see a retrace. What this will indicate is that Apple's market, for the first time in 2023, has finally shifted bearish. What this is the canary in the coalmine for is a significant correction. You can actually see this kind of pattern play out strongly in Amazon's monthly bars, which I comment on in their earnings pattern below: Amazon - Greed, Just Like Speed, Kills I anticipated that SPX was due for numbers as low as 4,420~ in the below call: SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg And so the setup with Apple is this: Short any bounce, with a target of $174. Then, don't get greedy. Anticipate a bounce into the August 18 options expiry. But that bounce may be no better than a flirt with $190. From there, you can consider it a "Godshort" with a target below the 2022 $124 low. And what I want to say is that if Apple has topped, everything is topped. Everyone is greedy and blinded by greed, buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear. Buying highs without fear! "We are fearful when others are greedy, and greedy only when others are fearful" is something Warren Buffett is notable for stating. And although Buffett doesn't qualify as any kind of a good man, the Truth is the Truth, even if a toad states it. Be careful. Things are about to change extremely quickly. Can you keep up? Can you enlighten to it? Missing the chance, there may be no further opportunities.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by LordWrymouth
Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip?Greed quickly became extreme at the end of July, and the beginning of August has severely punished bulls, who are still buying the dip and buying the dip. The July high on Nasdaq happened to occur along with the Dow and the SPX in that all three indexes swept out the January '22 pivot that amounted to a rejection that ended that unprecedented bull market. Looking at monthly bars, you can see how extreme this '23 bear market rally has been, and how far the Nasdaq is above its long-term trendlines, how the COVID points were never tested on SPX or Nasdaq, but were raided on the Dow... And you get some perspective on the weekly bars. Here's some key problems for bulls: 1. Equities don't like high interest rates. Big money is needed to move markets and that money likes to seek safe yield. When rates are really high, bonds are really cheap to buy, and money tends to flow into them instead of equities. 2. This means equities rallies in high interest rate environments are bear market rallies by definition. Smart money pumps and sells equities to fuel a buying spree in bonds. 3.With Fed rates pushing 5.5% and there being no chance of cuts until inflation goes from 4% to 2% sustained on a long term basis, ask yourself what really is the bull case that's going to lead to new all time highs? When you're dealing with multiple fundamental factors that are bearish, but price action is bullish, you absolutely have to be cautious, or else you're likely to get gibed. Moreover, geopolitical problems are really serious. The biggest problem is the situation in Mainland China with a Chinese Communist Party that is about to fall while the Western propaganda outlets report on absolutely nothing of significance. All the talk about "Taiwan War" is to make a pariah of Xi Jinping and his faction of Chinese nationalists. What all the globalists are really preparing for is how to take control of China when the CCP falls. To do this, they need to position a man that has been groomed to take control of the country, and this will be done using the Republic of Taiwan as a proxy. But "the best laid plans of mice and men" is an issue. Overhanging all of humanity's head like the Sword of Damocles is the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin's faction. Although Xi has been killing toadJiang's toad faction for over a decade with the Anti-Corruption Campaign, the problem is that Xi is still the Chairman of the Party, and all of its sins in 100 years hang over his neck like a noose. If Xi is smart, he'll overthrow the Party Gorbachev style. And if he isn't, he'll go down with it. But either way, when the Party goes, the persecution will become the #1 issue that all of humanity will have to face, for the sin is extreme. Equities markets will not be bullish those days, and you truly will be in a new paradigm. So here's the short term price action on the Nasdaq. End of July and early August price action confirms that the top, for now, is in. This means that dips are no longer buyable. It's only that you can short the rips. This will remain true until a certain downside objective is met, and when this becomes true, that downside objective is pretty much exclusively where an old low is. We have two areas of concern for lower prices. One is the June low at 14,250. Although I don't expect the market makers to take this point before September, it certainly is possible. More significant is the 14,850 pivot from the end of June. This number happens to result in a raid on the psychological 15,000 level, there's a gap nearby, and it can serve as a useful level to bounce for heading into the end of August. Keep in mind that August's monthly options expire on the 18th, which leave a solid 9 trading days remaining before the end of September. While you might feel that these targets are too far away to be realistic, keep in mind that dumping to 14,100 from where markets closed on Friday is really only 8%. 8% on QQQ amounts to like $25 and isn't that big of a deal compared to what some other three digit stuff does in a single day. And maybe you really don't believe it either way. But take a look at Apple, the most important stock on the market. It's showing you all the signs that you'd ever need to see that it's either topped or will raid $200 once before going down: Apple - So, You've Been Taught To Buy That Dip... Same with Microsoft Microsoft - Is The Top Already In? Same with Netflix Netflix - I Hope You Like Catching Knives The scary thing about tops is that the first time you get the sell off, the sell off tends to hurt longs, scare them out, and then you get a bounce that flirts with old highs. And that pattern leads to the "sell low, buy back higher" phenomenon. Which results in people buying the tops, hard, and permabears missing their chance to be short and missing the entire move down. But if you understand what's going on, you can capitalize on the early downside, the early bounce, and Godshort the top and ride the trend down. It's hard to do because of human emotions and the interference of long periods of time. But the wisdom is right here to do it. A potential timeline for the downside to finish is literally as early as Wednesday, because August CPI is on deck for Thursday. Another option is that CPI leads to the blowout under 15,000 and the bounce is into the end of August. Beware the JPM Collar. Expiring September 29, they're long on SPX puts with a strike of 4,200. Just ask yourself if America's most keystone systemically important bank is going to be expiring worthless like retail traders do.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
QQQ - Is It Rally Time? Or Are You Too Early?I have an open call on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures that theorizes that the markets may have topped in terms of the perpetual bull run, but that we may also get a rip back towards/at new highs. Nasdaq NQ - Is It Time To Sell The Rip? The process has been quite slow to play out so far, but the most dangerous thing for bulls with NQ is that 15,000 has not yet been broken. And yet we are rallying. Many people have been pining for new all time highs, and yet every equity has slowed down or been significantly bearish in the last two weeks. It's worth noting key macro points: 1. Fed rates are looking at tasting 6% by the end of the year 2. Jerome Powell says cuts aren't even considered until inflation becomes half of what it is 3. Dude said it will probably take years for this 4. Bond price goes down as yield goes up 5. Money leaves equities to seek yield in this environment 6. Divergences from the above are short signals, not buy for all time high signals And then there is the ever-accelerating collapse of the economy in Mainland China under the Communist Party. Things for the CCP, and for its leader Xi Jinping, are getting worse by the day. On top of economic problems the Party is facing are a litany of social problems, and the recent bout of exceptional and unprecedented flooding ravaging the country. The losses from the pandemic, from the economic calamity, and the natural disasters have weakened the Party significantly. A weak CCP can never invade Taiwan, and international spy agencies will all know this, and so whenever you're hearing "Taiwan War" you should immediately be suspect. What if the idea is to take control of Mainland China via Taiwan as the CCP falls, instead? What will happen to the international markets that day? Will they go up, or will they crash? So, here's a look at QQQ, the Nasdaq ETF that you can trade 0-Day options on. From the looks of today's price action it would seem as if the bottom was in. And it may very well be. This is a really key point. Friday may really well have been the bottom and we may be looking at a reversal. But there's some key points to consider for bulls. One is that in the Nasdaq call, I point out that NQ raided its January of 2022 failure pivot before the correction. QQQ has not done that yet, and this leads us to believe that $390 is a very likely target in the immediate future. Remember that upside should happen fast, since JP Morgan is bigly long SPX 4,200 puts that expire on September 29, and has been underwater since the quarter rolled over at the end of July. SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' However, it's also very strange if we're going to see a bounce as massive as $390, that the end of July failure swing didn't result in at least one downside stop being taken out. Note that today, Monday, was a day with no news drivers, while there is retail sales and Empire Manufacturing Index Tuesday, FOMC minutes Wednesday, Unemployment Claims on Thursday, and no news driver on Friday, which is also monthly options expiry. The critical Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting is also August 23 and 24, next week. Last year, Jackson Hole is what started a major correction that lasted until October. So what to expect? Instead of a reversal in fortune being so easy, I would imagine we see a raid of QQQ $360/Nasdaq 14,900 this week before we bounce. After that, it will be long only until QQQ $385, is my trade thesis. But keep in mind $390 does not have to be taken. $385 is a potential area of reversal and $391 is an area that only has to print one contract before there's a correction. So, thanks for reading. The TL;DR is this Buy a raid under $360-355. Probably just under $360. Long only until $385. Get "Big Short" over $390 or on a reversal pattern between $385 and $388. Good luck.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by LordWrymouth
1
Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize. One member pointed out: " Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. " I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
2
Weekly Update: Nothing Lasts Forever. NOTHINGI vividly recall a few years back having just finished labeling the above chart of the SP500 from inception. I labeled the chart and included most of the historical events that occurred over the course of that time. As a trader, I wanted to have a quick reference visual picture of price action during war time, innovation, and societal change, juxtaposed on my EWT count. Afterwards, I plopped on the couch and wanted to “Veg Out”. As a full-time trader and analyst, my mind was kaput. Exhausted... I wanted to watch something on TV that required no more of my brain energy. I turned on the History Channel and subsequently settled on this series called, “Life After People”. As the series progressed, I went from mentally exhausted to engaged. The simple summation of the series was that despite us having built sky-scrapers, cities, bridges, etc., if people we’re no longer around, the sum of the proof we ever existed on earth would eventually get overrun, deteriorate, and the final result would be recycled by the planet into the sum of its elemental parts. The series referred to this process as Entropy. I wondered if the time I spent laboring over the machinations of price action since pre-industrial America was in fact, the natural order of progression. Birth and death. Start and finish. I looked up the definition of Entropy and here it is. Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property, that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness , or uncertainty . The term and the concept are used in diverse fields, from classical thermodynamics, where it was first recognized, to the microscopic description of nature in statistical physics, and to the principles of information theory. It has found far-ranging applications in chemistry and physics, in biological systems and their relation to life, in cosmology, economics, sociology , weather science, climate change, and information systems including the transmission of information in telecommunication. Every known thing, will eventually succumb to Entropy. I found the concept of entropy, captivating, thought provoking, and I couldn’t help but wonder if entropy applies to what I do. I’m a full time trader. When I am asked what I do for a living, that is always my response. But I also associate with being termed a financial pattern analyst, an Elliotition, or just a plain ole’ analyst. As an Elliotiion, I practice the financial forecasting principles discovered by RN Elliott in the early 1930’s. My association with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) was a normal one, as I never conceded price action was random. Even as a young investment banker in my twenties, I always had this nagging notion, that however subjective or complex the stock market appeared to be, that eventually a simple construct would emerge that would lift the veil of the random, to allow for a more scientific methodology to answer the movements of stock prices and markets. My introduction to the principles of Elliott Wave Theory started that quest for answers to seemingly unanswerable. In Elliott Wave Theory, counter-trend patterns such as waves 2, 4 and B, are areas of potential complexity. It is within these particular wave degrees that some of the most obscure financial price action patterns come into view. From triangles, to WXY's, and the gamut of pattern complexity carves out their shapes here. To even the most seasoned Elliotition these areas can cause confusion, mislabeling and undoubtedly, uncertainty. In the intermediate sense, they mean less. But when observed in the larger cyclical timeframes, these areas are always associated with economic and/or societal change. The last financial supercycle waves took place on October 1929 wave (I), and April 1932 wave (II). Post 1932, financial prices have advanced seemingly unabated for 90 years. During this 90-year timeline, humanity has advanced in technology, medicine, communication, etc…all of which have impacted living conditions and average life span. These advancements changed migration patterns, mobility and communication. I can’t help but think, is now the precipice of where our 90 year advance and the natural order of entropy have hit a tipping point and henceforth, entropy now has statistical favor? Granted I am not skilled to discuss societal matters or medicine, etc…but from an analysts perspective…Is flat to down now the path of least resistance in the markets for the foreseeable future? Along the way of the 90 year advance in the SP500 you can see the historical events that have occurred and their impact on price action. Those price action sub-divisions were the result of the best and worst of times post 1932. My children, now grown adults, were financially shaped most by the 2008 financial crisis. However, in the grand scheme of super-cycles…you can barely make out those declines on the above chart. The final anecdote I’ll share is in 1991, when my wife and I bought our first home. Making what we believed to be one of the largest purchases we would make in our young lives, we watched mortgage rates as they flucuated. Then, we pulled the trigger to lock in rates, due to a short term dip, and at the time, felt we were wiser than most. So happy with our shrewdness in locking in 9.75% APR on a 30 year fixed mortgage. In retrospect, mortgage rates never went back above 10%. The last two decades, fiscal policy was on a longer term trajectory to 1-3%. We were not the gurus we made ourselves out to be back then. Maybe that trajectory down was a reversion to the mean in the post Larry Summers Fiscal policy of the mid to late 1970’s. Seems so now with the benefit of hindsight. But now it feels like that again…but this time the reversion to the mean is a post Ben Bernake fiscal policy. I can’t say for sure, as I do not posses that kind of foresight with respect to interest rates. What I can say, is having analyzed 150 years of price action, financial entropy is starting to rear it’s head. If this is in fact starting price action of a supercycle wave (IV). The buy and hold strategy is dead. This will be a traders market for at least the next two decades, or more. Case in point…observe the area in the red box on the above chart. This area is a primary circle wave 4 of one lesser degree within a cycle wave III. That wave 4 consoldation lasted from 1996 until the beginning of 2013. That was manageable. That was also 17 years of price action digestion from the previous 1974 stock market bottom. Since our previous supercycle events, we have experienced wars, advancements in technology, medicine, migration patterns OH AND WE EXPERIENCED a global pandemic. Mirroring what led up to previous (I), (II) wave degrees. I don’t post this to scare readers, nor do I seek ANY attention. I do not ever see myself as being referenced as the trader who called the top of some market in some time. I forecast these things to evaluate if I can make money as a trader from the forecasts. In conclusion, I’ll leave you with one of the wisest quotes I ever heard as it pertains to what I wanted to achieve as a trader when I started. Its not from a wise greek philosopher. Its from Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 1996 movie Jerry Maguire. “I’m already famous…now just show me the money”
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
NAS Outlook 8/6NAS left a number of relative qual lows late last week. We are expecting price to want to trade below these to accumulate buy positions before ptonetinally expanding to take out last week’s high. There is a daily OB below price that may support it. the July open price is also at these levels. Interactions with both of these levels can be interpreted as short term discount pricing. From a macro perspective there is a weekly FVG above price that may be acting as a magnet for higher prices. This is added confluence to the expectation of bullish expansion.
FX:NAS100Long
by akhena10fx
NQ weekly consolidation comes to end?Context: Monthly, weekly - Uptrend (UT) Daily - downtrend (DT) Micro-structure: Poor low from yesterday, excess high from Wednesday Last Day: Bearish break out from the range w/o much follow through (b-shape profile implies liquidation of longs, w/o new business). Price returned to the previous range. Conclusion: Healthy weekly consolidation. Daily DT comes to an exhaustion as bearish breakouts do not get follow through. If value moves into previous trading range it will be a very good signal for buyers. The only remaining problem for them is strong excess (unfilled gap) from Wednesday 2nd. We should also be cognizant of the fact that we have not yet seen any sign of meaningful buying . So sideway movement scenario is a very likely option Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
CAPITALCOM:US100
by hermes_trisme
Weekly Update: Are we Headed for Bad Times?I have been on Trading View for almost a year now. In that timeframe I have been fortunate enough to have almost 2,600 people who follow my work, shared almost 700 ideas within that community, and founded my website for paying members. Yesterday, we held a training / education Zoom call and dissected the move up off the October low of 3502. The purpose of this call was to strictly adhere to EWT rules & guidelines as we went through the chart literally day by day. The quick version of the outcome of that call was we have topped in the primary B countertrend rally. This conclusion was reached largely because of 2 major areas of focus from the October 2022 lows. The initial pattern, and the final impulsive portion of the pattern from March until the recent highs. Now I know most people may find this hard to accept. I fully expect the comments section to be lively but the notion of the initial portion of the pattern started off as a leading diagonal, is just plain wrong . Please allow me to explain. In preparation for this training, I spent time putting together my deck of slides, with an agenda to refer back to the live chart. As I went through the pattern and spotted what some Elliottitions would consider a leading diagonal off the 3502 bottom, I decided to spend some time researching Leading Diagonals. The reason being the theme of the call was the proper application of EWT rules and guidelines. So I wanted to be sure I was not assuming when I applied rules associated with ending diagonals to leading diagonals. What I found was eye-opening to me because I never questioned what LD’s were. Like some, I have always applied diagonals (ending or leading) as 3,3,3,3,3’s. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated this would be a series of abc’s but labeled as 1,2,3,4 and 5 with the 4 overlapping the 1. NOT SO FAST! My research turned up that although Ending Diagonals are a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern with governing rules, the larger EWT community is not 100% agreed on Leading Diagonals. Here’s an excerpt from AJ Frosts and Robert Prechter’s book, “Elliott Wave Principle”. Leading Diagonal It has recently come to light that a diagonal occasionally appears in the wave 1 position of impulses and in the wave A position of zigzags. In the few examples we have, the subdivisions appear to be the same: 3-3-3-3-3, but the jury is out on a strict definition, as 5,3,5,3,5 that overlap are also accepted. These patterns were not originally discovered by R.N. Elliott but have appeared enough times and over a long enough period that the authors are convinced of their validity. The notion of an LD is a relatively new idea that, in truth is accepted among many Elliottitions, but not all due a lack of governing rules. Well, I now have a quandary with respect to my upcoming zoom call with my membership. The entire basis of the call is the proper application of EWT Rules and or Guidelines. If there are no agreed upon rules, let alone guidelines, what do I do when the call begins and we start to examine the initial pattern off the 3502 bottom? I had already announced and scheduled the call. I decided to apply both loosely mentioned counts to this pattern (3,3,3,3,3 and 5,3,5,3,5) …and guess what? None of them apply. Not even close. You can go through the pattern yourself and what anyone is going to come away with when analyzing the initial pattern from 3502 on October 13, 2022 to the high of 4180 on December 22, 2022 is a an abc. If you have any doubts here’s the pattern zoomed in. So, based on the initial pattern being an abc...this entire move from start to finish was going to be corrective, or a countertrend advance. Trend being down. The last portion of the pattern that is impulsive starting in March 13th, 2023 until July 27th, 2023 should be labeled as following: C waves will normally terminate at the 1.618% fib extension....in which price did. Therefore, I firmly believe we have topped based on the fact that the leading diagonal may not even be a legitimate Elliott Wave pattern at worst, and at best, if it exists, has loosely based governing rules or guidelines. Lastly the impulsive portion of the pattern from March to July terminated at 1.618% of the initial pattern. I think it's a VERY VERY high probability we topped in July....and more importantly...should lead to a decline that could signify bad times ahead. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
NQ1! Back test of the Broken BalanceThe week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being in the upside channel is bullish and this is the reason the market is being resilient and does not drop like a rock after breaking the balance. 8/7/2023, pre-market
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital