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SPY Cycle Patterns For Dec 12, 2022 - More sideways melt-up.Here are the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week. Expect more sideways melt-up trending as we head into the Fed rate decision and key economic data. Traders will start to shift into early 2023 expectations this week (after the Fed). Check out my other posts. The markets are not expecting anything extraordinary right now - more of the same. The Fed rate decision will likely come in between 50pb and 75pb (as expected). All of this has been BAKED INTO the markets already. I can tell you what I'm seeing out here in So. Cal... Shoppers EVERYWHERE. Traffic is a mess. Lots of our of state cars everywhere. Malls and shopping centers seem packed. From what I can see, Q4:2022 will probably stay very solid for retail and online shopping. Unless there is some catalyst to BREAK the markets, US stocks should slide into 2023 with fairly strong expectations. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
NQ needs one more push to finish the right shoulderCheck the vol of today's move, its nothing! Typical Fri low vol grind If the price stays elevated, we should grind up into Mon am. But I will not be long if it will be a wall move into the close (last 10-15 min big up candle). I have a turning day on the 12th, will it be a strong move down or a gap and crap, I dont know, but we are getting close! I have a short set at 847 and 87NQ Have a great weekend, Im on the road most of the day today, will be less updates till the weekend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
NQ made a double bottom when ES did make a new lowsIn my eyes NQ and RTY are stronger then ES at this moment, which is kinda strange to me as it was the leading for the whole move down since ATH. Support held today (tomorrow's support box). Ichimoku cloud (not shown here) is in a thin area, so it has a weak support and can break below the lows to finally catch up with the ES. There is similar bull trendline as in the ES chart I just posted, Im expecting it to hold to go long. Ideally we get t test it tomorrow or Wednesday am. If we do gap down tomorrow to test that trendline I will be buying longs and hold into Wed high. Gaping down tomorrow will kill short the open idea and I will be looking for a low to buy instead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
DXY will find support above 103.70As the global economy continues to recoil after the US Fed rate increase - watch for the USD/DXY to find support above 103.70 and flag sideways/higher over the next 15+ weeks. I suspect any continued Fed rate increases will put further pressure on global markets/currencies and drive foreign investment in USD assets throughout 2023. Yes, the US economy is contracting - which is exactly what the Fed wants (breaking inflationary trends). But, that does not mean the US economy is CRASHING. What is happening is the strength of the US economy/USD is creating a capital-shift we've not seen since the early 2011~2013 bottom. Foreign investors are rushing away from risk - towards safety, security, & ROI. That means they are seeking the safest, strongest economy on the planet, with the best chance of ROI. I believe that is the US economy (the strongest on the planet) which is currently ON SALE at a 40% to 70% discount. Pay attention.
TVC:DXYLong
by BradMatheny
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.72%, down from 3.95% last week according to VXN data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile, while according to VXN, we are on 41th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 3.4% movement Bearish: 3.5% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 12475 BOT: 11525 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 12145 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 11480 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 40% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 93.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns for Dec 5 thru 9 - A Flat Sideways Melt-upI love the fact that traders are messaging me asking questions regarding my SPY Cycle Patterns. Thank you. I hope all of you are starting to see some value from my research and using it to profit from some of these moves higher. Right now, and probably until next week (Dec 12 of later), the markets will probably slide into a fairly volatile sideways melt-up phase. I'm expecting a 4 to 6%+ volatility range over the next 7+ trading days before some catalyst sends the markets higher. I've listed all the SPY Cycle Patterns for December below. I've highlighted the key days (**) that I believe will create a bias trend in December. The other patterns may still represent upward trending and volatility. 12/1/2022 Flat-Down 12/2/2022 Harami-Inside 12/3/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 12/4/2022 GAP22 Potential ** 12/5/2022 12/6/2022 Top 12/7/2022 Flat-Down 12/8/2022 Break-Away 12/9/2022 Carryover 12/10/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/11/2022 Top/Resistance21 12/12/2022 Consol-210 12/13/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/14/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/15/2022 Breakdown201 12/16/2022 Break-Away ** 12/17/2022 Carryover 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP ** 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/25/2022 Rotation 12/26/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/27/2022 Breakdown201 12/28/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/29/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/30/2022 Top 12/31/2022 Flat-Down
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
The Santa Rally Continues - Don't get stuck in Perma-Bear modeFar too many people got burned over the past 24 hours by betting the FARM on the Fed coming out Hawkish. I was chatting with a guy on Twitter last week about his call for a deep selling phase (possibly reaching COVID lows) in the US markets. His followers got burned by today's move (some really badly). You have to shift with the market trends and prepare for the unexpected. My research kept my followers away from risks and has been pointing towards a Wave-5 rally setting up in the US markets for many months. I use my Custom Indexes to get a better "feel" for how the markets are reacting to various inputs/outcomes. My Rotational Modeling system has been cautious for more than 14+ months - off only -6% for 2022. Many other Hedge funds are off by at much as -40% to -60%. Days like today, if you were lucky enough to survive them, will teach you a few lessons... Don't get married to a trend Protect capital at all times READ THE DATA - not the emotions Price can fool you - so protect your position. Follow my research.. Or, at least, check out my content before you decide to place your trade. Check out my SPY Cycle Pattern posts. Ask questions if you have them. This move isn't over yet.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
QQQ stays choppySince its recent peak on 15th November 2022, the price of QQQ drifted lower by about 4%. Currently, it trades for around 282$. We continue to be bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index and pay close attention to market developments. To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see QQQ continue to hold below the immediate support/resistance. Additionally, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a price decline. Contrarily, if QQQ breaks above the immediate support/resistance, it will be bullish. As far as fundamental factors go, these support our bearish thesis on the macroeconomic level. The FED and other central banks are pursuing tighter economic conditions to beat high inflation, which will inadvertently slow down the economy even more. With that in mind, we dismiss that the primary downtrend has hit bottom. Accordingly, our price targets for QQQ stay at 280$ and 270$ (10 000$ for NQ1!). Illustration 1.01 The setup we introduced recently remains valid. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time is neutral. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic points to the upside. MACD also points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
25
SPY Cycle Patterns for Nov 28 Thru Dec 2 - A Sideways Melt-upThis week, I expect a bit of a sideways melt-up before the Dec 7 start of the Santa Rally. The markets are digesting the post Thanksgiving trends and may continue to stay in a fairly narrow range over the next 7~10+ days. I do believe a critical Fibonacci inflation point is likely before Dec 7~10 - prompting a moderately strong Santa Rally phase to start. Reading some of the comments on Twitter, analysts and various traders seem to be all over the place. Some are calling for a massive price collapse to take place. Others are suggesting a new rally phase will take place. What I can tell you is that, which you should be watching my Youtube videos to follow my Custom Indexes, global traders are shifting capital away from global risks and into US Dollar based assets. This trend will likely continue for many months still. The unwinding of global speculative excesses (particularly in nations which saw big increases in home values - think China/Asia, Canada, others) and/or those caught in the pre-Covid excess credit/debt trap (the cheap USD carry trade) will likely continue to struggle as the "revaluation event" puts even more pressure on these foreign markets. Canada is an interesting example. A fairly strong economy that saw a big increase in wealth, asset valuations, and investments before, through, and even after COVID. The excesses were fueled by a global speculative phase (rising prices), almost like a "tulip bubble" where everyone through "I can't miss this incredible opportunity"... So they jumped in AT ANY COST. Just like what we saw with Bitcoin, the downside to that rally may be a -50% to -70% decline of certain assets over time. One must try to understand that when an environment of weaker asset growth (homes and other tangible assets) settles in throughout the world, capital will seek three things: Safety Security ROI You can't find these three things in extended underperforming assets (think China/Asia, Canada, others). That capital MUST move towards any economy that will contract the least, has the strongest base valuation correlation, and has the potential for moderate earnings, revenues, and RECOVERY. In my opinion, that is the US, UK, and possibly Japanese markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 4.06% , down from 4.19% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 78th percentile, while with VXN we are on 39th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 3.43% In case of bearish - 3.48% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 23.6% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 12223 BOT: 11239 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 11531 77% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 11931 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 40% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BEARISH trend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
NQ has the same as ES setupCurrently at the support zone, a long can be taken with a tight stop Needs to test the bull trendline imo before any significant bounce. For now its quite far way to test though. NQ should be leading in big 4, so must watch on the decline we get next week. Main resistance is the previous high into the resistance box, it has not to even get tested for lower lows to be seen. If tested and taken, all the NQ downside targets like 8.5-9k will off the table, at least for the short term. Must continue lower and test the first box of the support, if the bounce will be short lived and weak, expect more weakness into the main support zone and the uptrend channel test
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima