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For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them. Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns... 9-19: Inside/BreakAway 9-20: BreakAway 9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion) 9-22: Inside/BreakAway 9-23: Momentum Rally *9-24: RARE - Major Reversal *9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown201 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish) * = weekend I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week. But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend. The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH. Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings. We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity. Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support. The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision. Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel. Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening. Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally Day. Ready for it?My cycle patterns suggest today is a Reversion/Reversal/Rally day. I know it may seem strange to think that the US market may rally today after the CPI/PPI inflation data and the pending Fed rate increase - but it is what the cycle patterns say it is. Remember, these patterns originate from a date 3+ years ago and just tell me what to expect from price on certain days. I read them like words making up a sentence. Multiple bullish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bullish price trend. Multiple bearish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bearish price trend. Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally day. If we see a big rally in the SPY today - I will be content that my cycle patterns are really nailing these daily market cycles/setups. I mean - where else can you know what is likely to happen weeks or months in advance of price actually DOING IT? Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal MineI don't normally pay much attention to Tesla, but when I was eating cake and looking at charts today, I noticed something significant about this stock, and that's on the monthly: Specifically, despite all these months of severe market correction, Tesla has never broken a monthly pivot on the way down from the top. So much so that neither did the June market-wide bottom make a new low for TSLA, which turned May into a pivot. This means TSLA has maintained its bullish market structure compared to its peers, and should be able to swing upwards and set new highs. And yet on shorter time frames, even as large as the weekly, Tesla is simply heavy. On the daily, TSLA looks about as weak as the indexes. Not convinced? Well, compare this against McDonald's , of all things, which actually trades like a monster: Now ask yourself what Big Tech's stuff is really worth in reality compared to its hype train. Did Elon dump all those shares just so he could deal with the problem he created for himself trying to buy Twitter? Key price action in Tesla tells you some really significant things: 1. Tesla is supposed to be in a bullish market structure, heading for new highs on the monthly. 2. Heavy on all other time frames 3. Hourly, it double topped and died at $314 with a May pivot above at only $318 during the climax of our recent bear market rally. 4. The split did nothing to stimulate its vitality. And this is one of the top five highest volume stocks that trade each day and a key component of indexes. This makes Tesla a literal canary in the coalmine for the rest of the market. All of this combined can only show that new lows will be sought, and likely aggressively, which makes TSLA one of the fattest short opportunities around. Keep in mind this is not the same Tesla that everyone was shorting in 2017, where Elon would go and buy 10% of the float one night and liquidate everyone while laughing about it on Twitter. Tesla has become like a large, well developed cow sitting at the feed lot, waiting for whales to feast. Personally, I think we're about to see some significant price action this week that will hurt both bulls and bears: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws And I think during this action, even if the indexes print some pretty fat blue candles, TSLA somehow, will still be heavy enough that it can't take out $318, which means your primetime entry is in the $300 - $310 range. Give yourself a 3 to 6 month window where you can handle some bounce and won't get liquidated, and being short on TSLA should really turn out very nicely. You shouldn't have faith in electric vehicles. They're heavy, don't last very long, are neither cheap nor easy to charge, put significant strain on the power grid, and require tons of environmentally-damaging-to-mine rare Earth substances that aren't abundant enough to supply demand. This technological path cannot sustain itself. Mankind simply relies on burning oil and natural gas to produce electricity. Without electricity, modern society is finished. Don't believe it? Try making it through one day of winter in a city without your furnace! Just look at how many people died during that winter storm in Texas when the grid went offline. Mankind will have to find or rediscover a more traditional energy source if it wants to be sustainable for the thousands of years to come, and those discoveries will not come through this current batch of technology.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LordWrymouth
4
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday. After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes. News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends. Stay tuned.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY Cycle Patterns UpdateThis weekend, I spent quite a bit of time studying various rare and unique cycle patterns within my database. Because of this new research, I can share with you the new WEEKEND trigger which setup last weekend. I suspect a bullish GAP will setup early this week with price trending substantially downward on Monday. Tuesday should represent another attempt at a top/peak in price (possibly resulting in some wild volatility Monday/Tuesday). Wednesday will represent a Reversal/Rally day - possibly extending price up into a BULL TRAP for investors. Thursday is a N/A Day - meaning I don't have any confirmed Cycle Pattern trigger for that day. Friday will be another Top/Resistance day - likely seeing the markets establish a peak in price (again) and trending downward. Headed into the Fed week and knowing traders will be preparing for future headwinds related to futures/options expiration, this week could be full of very volatile price action. I suspect Monday/Tuesday will set the RANGE for the week and the rest of the week will trade somewhat sideways. Follow my research. These cycle patterns have been very accurate so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
NQ fullfiled the IHS targetPosted this on the Sep 8th: We hit the target! Now support at 12465. I will be shorting tomorrows open if we re-test the highs. Looking for a low on the 13th and press higher. If we see the high on the 13th instead, then we down into the 16-19th. My ideal pathway is low on the 13th and up into the 19-21st, then big sell off into EOM If we get above 12830, then we should test 13215NQ next, that would be my ideal target after the 13th low Will do SPX update in a bit and one more for those who are on my email list. PM me with your email address if you want to be added to that list, its free, I dont charge anything for sharing of my work, but accept "thank you":) Enjoy rest of your Sunday! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
9
NASDAQ DAILY -SELLERS IN CONTROLHow to know the uptrend changed - where do the sellers take control? How do you read the chart and see the sellers push buyers into the trap. Nice example of where the buyers that looked for continuation of the uptrend missed the story the chart was telling. Good less that trendlines are only PART of the picture. So where are we going from here? I see some short term targets below to look for in the coming week. Note these are areas of PA interest, not trade calls or callouts to short the NQ market! Educational purposes only here. Trade your own account as you see fit and happy trading!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by docholliday
Weekly Analysis 10th Sept 2022 - Nasdaq 100 #NQ #MNQ Week close on 12592* * Strong Bullish on Daily chart , bullish engulfing candles on weekly and under construction Hammer on Monthly. * A strong Trendline resistance coming up on 12600 along with RSI at 48. very crucial to break above 12650 and sustain to maintain bullish stand. with RSI, Volume and Trendline resistance Fridays move looks like an Bull Trap. Mondays close will dictate the further course of action. Outlook for next week neutral. Monday will dictate the direction for the week. Silver Lining for the previous week. appl: Bullish divergence and Tsla closed above 200DMA. Outlook for monthly Neutral to Bearish. S1: 12600 S2: 17250 S3: 16950 R1: 12300 R2: 12000 R3: 11900 A big short squeeze expected if we get daily close above 12800.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Nilesh_Khedkar
SPY/SPX - $8 Billion Press to Downside Protection - 4X Expiry Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th Quad Witch Expiration. This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion added to the hoard of Puts Friday. Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging. _________________________________________________________________________________ Intense Volatility will return in September. Of Note, with the declining Volatility Complex, VX Hedging has not dropped within a concurrent Cost Correlation. Options Writers are set for 3.19% IV for September... which may portend significantly Higher VX on any significant change in arrangements. _________________________________________________________________________________ On to the SPX/SPY and what is ahead. Of Note, I am Using the SPX as Large traders and Institutions are most heavily positioned here. Levels for the SPY are contained below. Trader Sentiment began the Week at 18.1% Bullish & 53.3% Bearish for the next 180 Days. ISM Price Paid Component declined 34.6% on the latest print as Commodity Intermediate Inputs have declined significantly. Interest Rate Forwards are indicating the FOMC will be @ 4% by January. The short end of the Curve continues to confirm the Fed Fund Futures. The DX took a breather on the Effective Rate Tussle between the EU and US. Powell will not do anything less than 75Bps and should the CPI be above 8.1 - 8.2, odds favor Powell stepping up the odds of 100 BPS, anything below 8 and 75Bps will be the LIS. The Fed is "data dependent" - ie. they bought themselves time and have already indicated it will be, at minimum, several months of observing the Data and not one nor two. Market Internals were solid with 90% Up, 10 :1 Advance peaking at 17 : 1 Intraday. Breadth improved as well, not significantly, but an improvement pushing the Closing Basis above the 10-Week Moving Average. Friday's rally was broad as was Wednesday's. NQ's Up/Down was higher as well, with a slight broadening after coming very close to putting in a lower low. The Put/Call ratio fell from 1.01 on Tuesday to .80 on close Friday - a 3-day decline. The ViX has 19.46 wide open again as we move into Roll through Settle, expect a surprise soon. It is ahead. The VVIX came up to its Pivot and failed badly. Extreme awareness of the UST Curve and Futures is vital to success as we are seeing 4% come into our view. DX, same considerations, the Ball is in Powell's court now that LeGarde has made her tit for tat. FX Disruptions were not considered not all that long ago. I pointed out they would be arriving shortly back in August of 2021. Very large disruptions were promised and delivered. 100% Ditto Bonds and their impending implosions. Dung was Flung then, not so much now and it is quite far from over for Bonds. As for the Levels in Trade this week, they can be observed on the Weekly Chart in a larger context. For Sunday Globex / Monday, here are the levels: NQ - Range Expands from 12,438 to 12,866 with 12508 as the Pivot. SPY - Range Expands from 405.44 to 415.22 with 406.17 as the Pivot. The 407.37 Gap is filled. _________________________________________________________________________________ *Options have continued to play an important role in Price over the past decade. Presently, they drive prices significantly. I will produce a thorough explanation, in detail, in the next few days. It will include: 1. The 5 Greeks and how they function - Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega & Rho. 2. Alpha and Beta relations from the Underlying to the Derivative. 3. The Yield Correlations. Have a great weekend, Good Luck on the Open - Trade Safe.
SP:SPX
by HK_L61
4
SPY / SPX / ES - $USD Smacked / 6E breaks Par - the LIFT The USD pulled back overnight on the ECB's 75 BPS Hike, until the October 21st FOMC Rate decision is announced the DXY can easily see downside pressure. Traders began to move against the Dollar as Major Asian Markets opened and again - ahead of the EU Session open @ 3 AM EST, by 3:30 AM EST. The Inversion lift was provided to the ES NQ YM RTY GC & SI @ 3 AM ET - straight up 20 Handles for the ES. Boom went the Stimulus in FX. Even Crude managed to lift over the 85.02 Pivot. Financials - XLF / NQBANK / KRE etc. are going to have a Stick Save day ahead. 1 & 2Yr Bills will see some much-needed consolidation after the short end has gone parabolic over since Wyoming Powell. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Yesterday's increase in Put activity provided the required Globex Squeeze and extension as upon the NYSE open there will be continued closing of Trades which have gone sideways. Sentiment and Positioning had swung to a sell-side weighting. Lael Brainard provided a pivotal comment - "The FED is aware of over-tightening." - this was all the Bid required to infer further "Pivot" chatter with respect to the Policy Cushion of overdoing tightening. 2.53% Fed Funds - 8.5% Inflation... overtightening? You do the Math. - it was all the Bulls needed to gain confidence in the Build Back Better Rally. __________________________________________________________________________________________ SPY Pivots are as follows for Friday: Trendline Support - 391.88 Baseline Supports - 395.22 / 396.44 / 397.61 Pivot for Higher - 401.56 provides a Throw over to 405.04 to 407.11 OR the .382 Fib of the recent High to Lows - it should remain overhead Resistance for today. 400.25 is the over / under into the open. Will late chasers see a hammer... not until the Puts are run off. Friday's Gap Fills come in at 77.22% - having been surpassed by Thursday @ 80.13%. Today may be quite different, the Gap does not need to fill today until after 11 AM EST, IF at all. Bots adore Gaps. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Are Institutions bidding Markets? No, they are not - Large Traders are, however. Above 400 on Friday and holding into the Close will provide "continuation thinking." There is just enough Liquidity returning to provide interest and Organic Buying. The Next Gen Squeeze awaits at 407.22 to 407.41. __________________________________________________________________________________________ This can run further as expectations have been set for a weaker CPI next Tuesday. Bullhorns have been blaring into the Bears Camp - they hear confirmation bias only to be dropped into the Dunk Tank time and again - a pattern that frankly repeats itself over and over. Bloomberg begins chortling on about "New Lows, 3400, Breaking 3600, Hawkish this/that" and it gains mindshare traction... quickly. Many traders are swing for the Triple when they would be far safer loading the bases with Singles, Balks, Walks, and chalk. Low Volume - let's leave it as Volumes are building. On Balance, Market Internals were improving off very low levels in the OSC's reaching Sub 300 with 388 and 475 being the Crash outliers from prior events. Summations held the Zero Line and turned in a clear Divergence. It remains a Bear Market IMHO until we see the 50 retake the 200. And speaking of EMA's/SMA's... they are very potent attractors - in particular defending 50/100 crosses. __________________________________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe through early September - it's not as many believed, 11/19 has been Higher over the last 20 years - will this be 12 or 9... we'll see - Magic 8 Balls aside, expect Higher VX @ 1.5 to 3% on either side of the Tape. Never discount the Effects of VOX ROLL?SETTLE timing. Good Luck to you. HK
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
9
NQ is in breakout mode (note the gap due to Sep to Dec contract)NQ has switched its contract on TV to Dec, looks like a gap up. Im short right here and some from the close. Today's close was into the wall last 10 min pump, closed below intraday highs = not bullish. Needs a gap up or we should see much lower levels tomorrow. Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes. Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and retrace hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week 200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
3
SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM EST. "We're committed to maintaining our Policy" Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower. Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade. The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup. _______________________________________________________________________ Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake. Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%. ________________________________________________________________________ X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs. We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October. The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher. VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot. Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied). DX can pull back to 108.50. ________________________________________________________________________ Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive then Tuesday was Negative. NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick. Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying. A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the Trendline will need to provide extreme support. Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly. Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level. Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7% ________________________________________________________________________ Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
3