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Nq!

NQ is at its resistance lineIts hard to call the bottom call from last night, as I mentioned only my gut feeling of the low being in, as the markets were on the verge of breakdown. "Its really Do or Die territory. My gut feel is telling me we will hold it, but you dont trade based on any feeling..." I did take 40 points and run and didnt trade much this am, working on something exiting, hope to share it in a month or two... So far we have bounce off the 12280 resistance zone, needs above this trend line for real breakout, for now its still in short gamma P.S. Dont forget to like my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
2
SPY / SPX / ES - Shortened Week AheadAugust did not end well for Buyers. Rate Creep across the curve applied pronounced pressure. RISK OFF is in trade across all Sectors within the X Complex. TNX from a Rate perspective - Rate instability and lower rates? At present, No. Bond VX is kicking up. It is however not damaging Banks as of yet, Financials are hanging on... slightly. Will the VIX Spike to 38 to 41? The ES would need to collapse to and through 3600, SPY clearly to new lows. VVIX is seeing the out-of-control setup - Few Puts in SPY, Few participants in VIX Calls due to IV. Prices sit at the most Pivotal area. Volimes are the main takeaway. Cumulative NYSE TICK took us sideways into the Close. Is the selling slowing down... that will depend on whether we see compression this week within a trading range. Friday was a Trending Day. Can Buyers Create Balance here? It will require a SOH on the SELL SIDE. Market Internals need to HOLD. Look below and fail is open as well. 11 of the past 19 September's ended up with 8 ending Down. The past 20 years have been highly volatile and I find it a generational approach more relevant than the overall historical as HFT/ALGO Trading has become dominant with increased Volatility - It's my approach this September. Alladin will be extremely busy this Month - chalking up further gains for Blackrock. The Quarterly close will provide important answers to a Trend in decline at present. It is somewhat overstretched on OSCs, but Summation Indexes have more work to do. This can provide ever-increasing Volatility as we see the VIX Curve pricing in expanding VX for several months. VIX - % Contango SEP M1 @ 3.90% OCT M2 @ 1.80% NOV M3 @ 0.37% DEC M4 @ 3.30% JAN M5 @ 0.25% FEB M6 @ 0.82% MAR @ Par with FEB _________________________________________________________________________________________ Year to Date - August opened the Dunk Tank once Powell delivered his May FSR Objective affirmation for Asset Prices and Interest Rate Forward Guidance. Winners: Energy + 30.10 % Utilities + 5.64 % Losers: Consumer Non-Cyclical -6.55 % Financial -10.81 % Transportation -15.08 % Basic Materials -15.26 % Technology -31.79 % Healthcare -26.92 % Consumer Discretionary -26.06 % Services -21.44 % Capital Goods -20.45 % Retail -18.52 % A very brutal 2022 into the month of September - where Monthly, Weekly, and Daily timeframes are within poor Structure. August SPY Monthly provided a very nasty inverted Hammer. Sellers stepped up in spades at the Highs and Sold to the opening Print, and through the Opening Print - to close on lows. September's opening print did not hold the lower Body Bar on Friday - a poor close to the week with options settlement into the Cash Session. Buyers were non-responsive at best. Sellers sold through on increasing volume for the 3rd consecutive day. September's big events are ahead - the 13th CPI. Powell will provide color commentary on the 21st. _________________________________________________________________________________________ Last Month's Price action served to expand the range for Major Indices. Monthly timeframes continue to hold Lower Highs, not a good look from the June Lows at present. The 379.92 Level is the .382 and Pivotal for the Month of September, it is presently the initial implied Lower Range for the SPY on the confirmed break and closing below the Trend Line Support. SPY 50% resides at 349.12 - the opening to a larger and lower low - into the Gap Fill @ 338.50. Obviously larger targets below on increased panic and further Selling. Price is currently sitting on top of what was prior support. _________________________________________________________________________________________ I have cautioned for some time, Rates were a distraction too far larger issues within the Global Economy. Repeatedly. There are 3 legs to this stool. Forward EPS, which remains incredibly high based upon earnings projections and their required adjustment too far lower expectations. These have been partially priced in after Powell dropped the Hammer. There is more work to do there. QT remains a recycling operation - in through the out door with the appearance of an aggressive FED - while advancing CBDC via FED NOW/FED DIRECT at an increasing pace for Rollout. This and 41067 won't bode well for Crypto IMHO. Simply adding to the avalanche of impending exits which can be triggered by any panic in trade. _________________________________________________________________________________________ After large declines for all Major Indices... we've never seen a real Flush down panic, not one. This is a once in 100 years Bear Market and it will be difficult to navigate as the Algorithms are growing increasingly predatory. Be careful out there, reduce Size and be on guard for increasing VX in September. Bearish Sentiments @ AAII are rising to 50.6% again. Stop runs on trailers and catching traders offsides should be anticipated. We will see if the breakdown hammers this lower or price can manage to consolidate in a larger range this week - expanding to the downside but providing outsized squeezes based on the Gamma / Delta. _________________________________________________________________________________________ A Break of 388.96 has the potential and higher probability of creating a massive flush down and panic move to the downside. Price is currently sitting on top of DOM Support or what many refer to as a Volume Node, I'm old, Depth of Market (DOM) is my preferred nomenclature. 3 Weeks of selling favors the Sellers - expected moves will produce lower Highs in Trend. Daily DT is another large Lower Low. The Daily TF is the confluence with the Trendline @ 390.85 - BREAKING THIS will get nasty. Buyers will absolutely need to defend early this Week, 399.50 may limit the upside in the Range. 379 to 399.50 is the Larger Range this week. 408.25 breaks a Potential Bear Flag. Sector Support appears to be a Risk OFF in ALL Sectors. HYG will provide leading indications as will XLF - breakdowns here would be very NEGATIVE. Can Buyers consolidate here... we will see. Take care and be cautious - trade Safe, Lower highs in the XLK will provide entry into the Trend.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5
NQ has a chance to push hereUpdated chart Needs to hold the broken trend channel, ideally we re-test the broken down zone of 260, might not get as far if this is for real. Has to take 188-90 for the 260 become next main target New target to hold is 12030+- Very important to hold! I dont want to be in a crash mode, but no one expects it makes it more probable. So be careful! P.S. I like this downtrend channel, much better then another bear flag, when we break it, we can finally be moving. 12030 target looks good for the touch of the bottom trendline
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
SPY - Becoming Oversold ST / And...What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market. Let's see if they can recapture the 377... It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross being a 199/377 2X affair. The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s For the ES - 3910 to 4120. NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818 ________________________________________________ The week is young, it's Algo Wednesday, best to be on guard for a potential squeeze. And then Failure perhaps next week on a shortened week. There are 67K 400 Puts for the SPY. Apple - expanded new Range 153.70 to 164.10, Tesla 840 to 892 ADP Friday (300K), Fed Speakers reiterating their Position all week, with the DX, VX, and Rates lending ample confusion. The DX can pull Back to 107s and remain in trend to 112. Yields - 2YY vertical wedge, 10's remain in a longer-term uptrend. VX - 8 Count ST Highs - as we move into Friday it's due to pullback or explode, toss a dart. Crude was sold to the late chasers, it dumped hard to a key pivot which IF broken revisits 85. Weekly Charts - See Goog... just nasty. _________________________________________________________ Next CPI September 13, FED on Sept. 21. It's a laundromat Monday every day until this timeframe. Short term it has been whipsaws to further downside. RSI divergence short term, MACD moved into Negative, AO has as well. Rejection 3x. PC elevated... Meme / BTC wrecked. What a complete mess. Mixed signals in a downtrend are the most dangerous place to trade.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
4