Get started

Nq!

SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur. This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support. Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
SP:SPXLong
by Point-Blank-Trading
QQQ - Brief updateRecently, QQQ reached our price target of 290 USD. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the asset. We continue to be bearish due to the persistence of fundamental and technical factors. Indeed, we think the U.S. stock market will continue lower. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for QQQ at 280 USD. Our price target for the Nasdaq 100 index is 11 000 USD. Illustration 1.01 The bearish crossover occurred as we predicted, confirming our bearish thesis. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
20
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 11820 BOT 10905 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched - There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep - Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by exlux
New SPY Cycle Patterns for next weekHere are the new cycle patterns for next week and beyond. Let's see how the market react to the Excess Phase Peak Phase 3 support (June lows). Failure of this pattern at this point could prompt a big move higher. 9-23: Momentum Rally 9-24: Rare – Major Reversal 9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH 9-29: GAP Potential 9-30: Top Resistance 10-1: Consolidation 10-2: Temporary Bottom 10-3: Gap Reversal 10-4: Breakdown 10-5: BreakAway 10-6: Rally 10-7: Carryover 10-8: Bottom 10-9: N/A 10-10: N/A 10-11: Inside/Breakaway 10-12: Harami/Inside 10-13: CRUSH 10-14: Gap Potential 10-15: Gap Reversal 10-16: Breakdown 10-17: BreakAway 10-18: Carryover 10-19: Temporary Bottom 10-20: Top/Reisistance 10-21: Consolidation 10-22: CRUSH 10-23: Gap Potential 10-24: Gap22 Potential 10-25: N/A 10-26: Breakdown 10-27: Harami/Inside 10-28: CRUSH 10-29: GAP Potential 10-30: Top/Resistance 10-31: Consolidation 11-1: Bottom 11-2: UP/Down/Up 11-3: Base/Rally 11-4: BreakAway 11-5: Carryover WARNING: There are TWO warning signals on the Short-Term cycle modeling system we need to pay attention to. These may become bigger issues for traders if they compound with other factors. 9-1-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK) 9-4-2022: Temporary Bottom10 9-10-2022: Rally11 (Bullish) 9-13-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK) 9-23-2022: Momentum Rally As I stated earlier, I see the easiest path for the US markets to take as staying within one of the THREE Pennant/Flag patterns I highlighted in the charts (above). This means we are likely to see a moderate Christmas rally phase which may trend more sideways than upward. Last week’s major cycle research trigger: My cycle research suggests the following is HIGHLY LIKELY. _ 1999 : Major Top ( Start of DOT COM event ) _ 2003 : Bottom/Disruption _ 2006.3 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( Start of GFC event ) _ 2010 : Major Bottom _ 2013.7 : Strengthening Price Trends _ 2019.5 : Disruption ( COVID ) _ 2022.5 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 1 ) _ 2027 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 2 ) There will be some great opportunities for 3% to 5%+ swings in the markets going forward – but I don’t see many great opportunities to get involved in any new long-term positions yet. Stay very liquid at the moment (mostly in CASH). We’ll see how things progress towards the holidays and into early 2023.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY - Larger ContextLet's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away. Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish. It may, however, be cringeworthy. NQ below 200 W SMA. What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below this most important of level @ 3585.55. Powell - simple... NO CHANGE. ____________________________________________________________________________________ There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons. The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much. It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now. We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections. I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods". The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly. What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself. They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time. And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured. Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY. The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard. Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail. ____________________________________________________________________________________ Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix: Call Skew ATM $ 53,140,489.00 384.94 43.41% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent PUT Skew ATM $ 122,410,005.00 384.94 230.35% 365.06 Range 19.88 IV% Gamma Dependent The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95. Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67. Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide margin - an absurd failure on their effort. Here is the Open Data Set: Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00 376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00 377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00 380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00 $ 93,224,516.00 Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $ 370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00 372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00 373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00 374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00 375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00 376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00 $ 187,809,933.00 In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work. It is garbage. ____________________________________________________________________________________ The important points in the Chart: Notice where the 55 EMA resides. Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses. EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets. Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective. ____________________________________________________________________________________ On to the Fundamentals: AAII Sentiment has crossed 60% Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well, consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions. Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK $500B recent Default last week). Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%. FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all. Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline. It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps. Breadth - collapsing TRIN - Horror Show TRIX - Ditto Market Internals - No Nieno ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition. Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your thoughts - it is appreciated.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
13
Current SPY low is < 1% from the June 2022 lows - Double Bottom?My cycle patterns suggest a rally phase is likely over the next 7+ trading days - but, the trend is very bearish today. It is almost as if the markets are flushing out stop levels - actively seeking a support level near the June 2022 lows. It will be very interesting to see how the market ends today. If we see a big recovery rally into the close, it may support my cycle patterns predictions of a rally phase leading to what may be a new support level near $365. If it continues to sell downward, then I will be forced to admit my cycle patterns FAILED today. That means I'll have to spend hours studying why this failed and if I can make any improvements to my cycle pattern qualifiers/code. I will state that my predictive modeling suggests a rally phase is still likely. So, we'll see what happens as the day progresses. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Big Cycle Pattern Day - Momentum Rally DayThat means the SPY should find immediate support (after it appears a big GAP downward reflecting Europe's recession concerns). Here's a little hint: Bitcoin will likely rally along with the SPY/ES and others over the next 7+ days. The strength of the US economy/US Dollar may drive global investors into US assets and safe-havens throughout the end of 2022 - possibly setting up a very strong Christmas Rally phase. Remember, this was all predicted over 3 years ago by a major cycle event. I have every day mapped out all the way past 2026 and beyond. Next week should be very exciting. The potential for the markets to rally higher is high. There is a CRUSH day (9-28) that may represent some type of corrective price event, but other than that one day, the momentum appears to be to the upside. Hope you guys are enjoying these? Please comment or let me know if you find these valuable in any way/form? Follow my research...
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
8
Effective Fed Fuds 2023 - Powell's War on You Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy. 1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs. 2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs. 3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything. _________________________________________________________________________________ Capital Stocks Powell - Bonds are going to see a Yield Curve Inversion, larger than usual. There is no single condition, what is the term premium on Longer Rates is what matters most. Powell - Housing will see a significant correction, we want the housing market back on a sustainable path. Powell - Equities are overvalued, period, the end. We're committed to "Price Stability" Powell - The US should not return to a Gold Standard - Digital Currency is the path. Powell - We flooded the System with Money (Digitally) by buying Bonds now we are selling them. _________________________________________________________________________________ Forward Rates are indicating he is very serious. I've warned about this for well over a year now - safe to say its come to pass.
CBOT:ZQU2023
by HK_L61
2
Cycle Pattern - Tomorrows Momentum Rally PatternIs it really that hard to believe that tomorrow could shift gears and move into a moderate momentum rally after the Fed raised rates 75bp? What I find incredibly interesting about these patterns is how they can paint a very clear picture of the opportunities and shifting market trends. Each day is clearly defined (except for the N/A days). Each day paints a picture of what to expect and potential trend. Reading all this data as a story or narrative provides us a very innovative way to address allocation levels, risks/opportunities and trends. Given the market volatility and trending, I would still suggest addressing any potential momentum rally with some caution. Trade smaller amounts and look to pull away from position before the close of trading on Friday. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPY - Apres Powell & The Double DipJackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview. Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the Target Range? That is a suicide, assured. See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day. That Chart is simply NASTY. The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower. It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will become a brushfire. Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes. Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex. Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity. Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022. Technically the Markets do not support Buyers. Liquidity does not support Buyers. Margins do not support Buyers. Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead. Yields do not support Buyers. The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade, I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold. Is there a setup here? No, there is however a great many trades. Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day and Intra-week. It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given. 3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners. NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead. Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead. VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of... arrived. Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times. You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in TLT. Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO will not provide lasting support. Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again. Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension. Sentiment - Terminal. In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not? ________________________________________________________________ Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate. Fixed. Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly, but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday. ___________________________________________________________________ Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into March of 2024. The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on 10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve. My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6% into 2023. It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022. 2019/2020 is the present Base. ___________________________________________________________________ I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention. Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time filling the Gap at 235. ___________________________________________________________________ Good Luck & Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) Further Downside ExpectedShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the decline from 8.17.2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.17 high, wave A ended at 12017.75. Wave B ended at 12986.74 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 12461.50 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 11921.50. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 12986.74 which also completed wave B. Index has turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 11778.50 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 12143.34. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as an expanded flat. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 12092.50, wave (b) ended at 11763.25, and wave (c) ended at 12143.34. This completed wave ((ii)) of C. Index has resumed lower in wave ((iii)). Near term, expect wave (i) of ((iii)) to end soon. Index should then rally in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 9.22.2022 high (12143.34) before it resumes lower. As far as pivot at 12143.34 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)) which comes at 10195 – 10938.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events: 1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs. 2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell. 3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31 and VIX Curve inversion. Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of which there are 3 events: 1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and intends to remain vigilant. 2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. 3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important timeframe for the FED. ______________________________________________________________________ Nature abhors a Vacuum. As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s. Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made higher velocity movements recently. The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the prior 2 most recent curve inversions. The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week and next. Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine. That will not happen today IMHO. Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase. This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter and far more volatile than prior cycles. ______________________________________________________________________ Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows. It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again. ______________________________________________________________________ Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability of profit. The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement. Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance. The key to success is to close the position within a few days. I am taking ATH only. ______________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe & Good Luck.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
12
NQ to make another daily engulfing pattern if we make below 790The price rejected the test of the broken trendline - perfect kiss of the death pattern. My thoughts about a fakeout were too optimistic, I was looking to add to my NQ short at higher levels and it didnt present an opportunity. Main target for this move is 11175-85 and possibly much lower. Try not to day trade this, unless you're quick with taking profits and run NQ same as the SPX, looking for a good size rally after the FOMC and fade completely by Friday Going to short a bounce, if presented P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
9
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
NQ Zoomed out chartCheck the broken to the downside trend channel re-test NQ is having now. So far its riding it from the bottom. I wont count out a fakeout move up to 12150-60 or even 12240-50 and then going back below the bottom of the trend channel. Support is at 11900 for tomorrow long try. If we see that level during the open time, I will be taking long for a 100+ points ride up. The most bullish case is - re visit 12700 level. But the time is really running out and unless we get a huge squeeze tomorrow, I think the upside will be very limited and the price will eventually get to my main target - 11175-200 and maybe much lower. Oct should mark the low and Im wondering if we even see 9-10k zone tested. So far Im planning on adding to my swing short tomorrow and just seat on it till after the FOMC decision move. Im running some ES longs against my main NQ short, ready to cut at 3919ES level. This is my working chart and I have hided as many indicators as possible, so you all can see the chart more clear then it is:) P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima