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Nasdaq Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022Nasdaq Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022 The current implied volatility is +-489$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 11920$ With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range: TOP: 12400 BOT: 11430 At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 2.4 - 2.68% From the technical analysis POV, we can see that our asset is above EMA 50/100 and above EMA 200. From the volume POV, we can see that currently CMF level is on the positive side, indicading a stronger buyer positions. Since we open below 12k, I believe there is a much higher chance this week that the market will continue the downfall movement, towards 11500$, where is actually the resistence point from the EMA 200. After that it can go both ways, depending if its going to close above/below it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by exlux
Total Contrarian Trade/SetupAs much as I believe in "Don't Fight The Fed", I'm starting to think the bottom for the US markets (Technology/SPY/QQQ) may be much closer than some people think. My cycle research suggests a 2022.5 cycle pattern (late in the second half of 2022) is highly likely. Have we seen that yet? Maybe. Maybe it is the recent bottom in June 2022 and the change of direction (higher) after that bottom. Here are some of the KEY CYCLE PATTERNS that catch my attention. 9-27~10-8 : Harami, CRUSH, Gap, Top, Consolidation, Temp Bottom, Gap Reversal, Breakdown, Breakaway, Rally, Carryover, Bottom 10-11~10-25: Inside/Breakaway, Harami, CRUSH, GAP, Gap Reversal, Breakdown, Breakaway, Carryover, Temp Bottom, Top/Resistance, Consolidation, CRUSH, GAP, BIG GAP These patterns, and the fact that I'm seeing some strength in the consumer sector, align with a potential Elliot Wave setup that suggests we may see some extreme volatility as we shift into a moderate Christmas Rally Phase. It all depends on HOW DEEP (if anything) we see the markets move after the Fed rate decision. If the markets fall back into bullish trending and attempt to move away from lower support levels, then there is a very solid chance we may see an extended Bullish price trend starting a new Christmas Rally phase - possibly lasting into Q1:2023. The CRUSH patterns are the only thing that concerns me. These are typically very aggressive downward price moves - but can sometimes represent pullbacks in an uptrend. I've seen them happen in very strong uptrends and I'm thinking capital may be shifting away from the same risks that were in the markets in late 2021. We've seen technology and other sectors fall 45% to 76% in some cases. The contrarian trade (bullish if support holds) may be a very low risk trade right now.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 19 Week NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 19 Week Hope you had benefited from the long trap alert from last week for a fruitful short opportunity. Temporary support at the 11772 - 11917 zone. Possible scenarios: 1) Short if 12234-12080 is resisted 1 extension) Longer term Short Target = 11068-10360 2) Temporary Long on support of 11772 // 11916 Weekly = Higher vol (ave) wide spread down bar close off low = Demand coming in Daily = Ave vol down bar close toward high = minor strength H3: H3 tells a clearer story - temporary support observed Price reaction levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 13587 13200 12735 12234 12080 11772 - 11917 11348 Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week ahead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by paradox677
2
S&P500, ES, NQ, QQQ, SPX, SPY Nasdaq about to go up for big falli dont know how SEO for tradingview works... I posted about the buying before the friday close when nq had dropped to 11800 and everyone was extremely bearish... i posted this idea which you can see here but its not ranking; hence I am posting this again we have broken below sept 7 low.... the sentiment is extremely bearish but the evil plan is to take the price up and squeeze every short before dumping... already the friday ended up in green daily pin bar and we look good to go
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
2
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them. Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns... 9-19: Inside/BreakAway 9-20: BreakAway 9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion) 9-22: Inside/BreakAway 9-23: Momentum Rally *9-24: RARE - Major Reversal *9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown201 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish) * = weekend I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week. But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend. The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH. Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings. We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity. Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support. The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision. Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel. Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening. Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally Day. Ready for it?My cycle patterns suggest today is a Reversion/Reversal/Rally day. I know it may seem strange to think that the US market may rally today after the CPI/PPI inflation data and the pending Fed rate increase - but it is what the cycle patterns say it is. Remember, these patterns originate from a date 3+ years ago and just tell me what to expect from price on certain days. I read them like words making up a sentence. Multiple bullish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bullish price trend. Multiple bearish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bearish price trend. Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally day. If we see a big rally in the SPY today - I will be content that my cycle patterns are really nailing these daily market cycles/setups. I mean - where else can you know what is likely to happen weeks or months in advance of price actually DOING IT? Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal MineI don't normally pay much attention to Tesla, but when I was eating cake and looking at charts today, I noticed something significant about this stock, and that's on the monthly: Specifically, despite all these months of severe market correction, Tesla has never broken a monthly pivot on the way down from the top. So much so that neither did the June market-wide bottom make a new low for TSLA, which turned May into a pivot. This means TSLA has maintained its bullish market structure compared to its peers, and should be able to swing upwards and set new highs. And yet on shorter time frames, even as large as the weekly, Tesla is simply heavy. On the daily, TSLA looks about as weak as the indexes. Not convinced? Well, compare this against McDonald's , of all things, which actually trades like a monster: Now ask yourself what Big Tech's stuff is really worth in reality compared to its hype train. Did Elon dump all those shares just so he could deal with the problem he created for himself trying to buy Twitter? Key price action in Tesla tells you some really significant things: 1. Tesla is supposed to be in a bullish market structure, heading for new highs on the monthly. 2. Heavy on all other time frames 3. Hourly, it double topped and died at $314 with a May pivot above at only $318 during the climax of our recent bear market rally. 4. The split did nothing to stimulate its vitality. And this is one of the top five highest volume stocks that trade each day and a key component of indexes. This makes Tesla a literal canary in the coalmine for the rest of the market. All of this combined can only show that new lows will be sought, and likely aggressively, which makes TSLA one of the fattest short opportunities around. Keep in mind this is not the same Tesla that everyone was shorting in 2017, where Elon would go and buy 10% of the float one night and liquidate everyone while laughing about it on Twitter. Tesla has become like a large, well developed cow sitting at the feed lot, waiting for whales to feast. Personally, I think we're about to see some significant price action this week that will hurt both bulls and bears: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws And I think during this action, even if the indexes print some pretty fat blue candles, TSLA somehow, will still be heavy enough that it can't take out $318, which means your primetime entry is in the $300 - $310 range. Give yourself a 3 to 6 month window where you can handle some bounce and won't get liquidated, and being short on TSLA should really turn out very nicely. You shouldn't have faith in electric vehicles. They're heavy, don't last very long, are neither cheap nor easy to charge, put significant strain on the power grid, and require tons of environmentally-damaging-to-mine rare Earth substances that aren't abundant enough to supply demand. This technological path cannot sustain itself. Mankind simply relies on burning oil and natural gas to produce electricity. Without electricity, modern society is finished. Don't believe it? Try making it through one day of winter in a city without your furnace! Just look at how many people died during that winter storm in Texas when the grid went offline. Mankind will have to find or rediscover a more traditional energy source if it wants to be sustainable for the thousands of years to come, and those discoveries will not come through this current batch of technology.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LordWrymouth
4
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday. After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes. News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends. Stay tuned.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY Cycle Patterns UpdateThis weekend, I spent quite a bit of time studying various rare and unique cycle patterns within my database. Because of this new research, I can share with you the new WEEKEND trigger which setup last weekend. I suspect a bullish GAP will setup early this week with price trending substantially downward on Monday. Tuesday should represent another attempt at a top/peak in price (possibly resulting in some wild volatility Monday/Tuesday). Wednesday will represent a Reversal/Rally day - possibly extending price up into a BULL TRAP for investors. Thursday is a N/A Day - meaning I don't have any confirmed Cycle Pattern trigger for that day. Friday will be another Top/Resistance day - likely seeing the markets establish a peak in price (again) and trending downward. Headed into the Fed week and knowing traders will be preparing for future headwinds related to futures/options expiration, this week could be full of very volatile price action. I suspect Monday/Tuesday will set the RANGE for the week and the rest of the week will trade somewhat sideways. Follow my research. These cycle patterns have been very accurate so far.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
NQ fullfiled the IHS targetPosted this on the Sep 8th: We hit the target! Now support at 12465. I will be shorting tomorrows open if we re-test the highs. Looking for a low on the 13th and press higher. If we see the high on the 13th instead, then we down into the 16-19th. My ideal pathway is low on the 13th and up into the 19-21st, then big sell off into EOM If we get above 12830, then we should test 13215NQ next, that would be my ideal target after the 13th low Will do SPX update in a bit and one more for those who are on my email list. PM me with your email address if you want to be added to that list, its free, I dont charge anything for sharing of my work, but accept "thank you":) Enjoy rest of your Sunday! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
9
NASDAQ DAILY -SELLERS IN CONTROLHow to know the uptrend changed - where do the sellers take control? How do you read the chart and see the sellers push buyers into the trap. Nice example of where the buyers that looked for continuation of the uptrend missed the story the chart was telling. Good less that trendlines are only PART of the picture. So where are we going from here? I see some short term targets below to look for in the coming week. Note these are areas of PA interest, not trade calls or callouts to short the NQ market! Educational purposes only here. Trade your own account as you see fit and happy trading!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by docholliday
Weekly Analysis 10th Sept 2022 - Nasdaq 100 #NQ #MNQ Week close on 12592* * Strong Bullish on Daily chart , bullish engulfing candles on weekly and under construction Hammer on Monthly. * A strong Trendline resistance coming up on 12600 along with RSI at 48. very crucial to break above 12650 and sustain to maintain bullish stand. with RSI, Volume and Trendline resistance Fridays move looks like an Bull Trap. Mondays close will dictate the further course of action. Outlook for next week neutral. Monday will dictate the direction for the week. Silver Lining for the previous week. appl: Bullish divergence and Tsla closed above 200DMA. Outlook for monthly Neutral to Bearish. S1: 12600 S2: 17250 S3: 16950 R1: 12300 R2: 12000 R3: 11900 A big short squeeze expected if we get daily close above 12800.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by Nilesh_Khedkar
SPY/SPX - $8 Billion Press to Downside Protection - 4X Expiry Institutional Protection (Hedging) reached an All-Time High on the September 16th Quad Witch Expiration. This position dwarfs prior hedging Highs by 103% and is rising by an additional $8 Billion added to the hoard of Puts Friday. Not only are the positions outsized - it was 308% of 2008's Hedging. _________________________________________________________________________________ Intense Volatility will return in September. Of Note, with the declining Volatility Complex, VX Hedging has not dropped within a concurrent Cost Correlation. Options Writers are set for 3.19% IV for September... which may portend significantly Higher VX on any significant change in arrangements. _________________________________________________________________________________ On to the SPX/SPY and what is ahead. Of Note, I am Using the SPX as Large traders and Institutions are most heavily positioned here. Levels for the SPY are contained below. Trader Sentiment began the Week at 18.1% Bullish & 53.3% Bearish for the next 180 Days. ISM Price Paid Component declined 34.6% on the latest print as Commodity Intermediate Inputs have declined significantly. Interest Rate Forwards are indicating the FOMC will be @ 4% by January. The short end of the Curve continues to confirm the Fed Fund Futures. The DX took a breather on the Effective Rate Tussle between the EU and US. Powell will not do anything less than 75Bps and should the CPI be above 8.1 - 8.2, odds favor Powell stepping up the odds of 100 BPS, anything below 8 and 75Bps will be the LIS. The Fed is "data dependent" - ie. they bought themselves time and have already indicated it will be, at minimum, several months of observing the Data and not one nor two. Market Internals were solid with 90% Up, 10 :1 Advance peaking at 17 : 1 Intraday. Breadth improved as well, not significantly, but an improvement pushing the Closing Basis above the 10-Week Moving Average. Friday's rally was broad as was Wednesday's. NQ's Up/Down was higher as well, with a slight broadening after coming very close to putting in a lower low. The Put/Call ratio fell from 1.01 on Tuesday to .80 on close Friday - a 3-day decline. The ViX has 19.46 wide open again as we move into Roll through Settle, expect a surprise soon. It is ahead. The VVIX came up to its Pivot and failed badly. Extreme awareness of the UST Curve and Futures is vital to success as we are seeing 4% come into our view. DX, same considerations, the Ball is in Powell's court now that LeGarde has made her tit for tat. FX Disruptions were not considered not all that long ago. I pointed out they would be arriving shortly back in August of 2021. Very large disruptions were promised and delivered. 100% Ditto Bonds and their impending implosions. Dung was Flung then, not so much now and it is quite far from over for Bonds. As for the Levels in Trade this week, they can be observed on the Weekly Chart in a larger context. For Sunday Globex / Monday, here are the levels: NQ - Range Expands from 12,438 to 12,866 with 12508 as the Pivot. SPY - Range Expands from 405.44 to 415.22 with 406.17 as the Pivot. The 407.37 Gap is filled. _________________________________________________________________________________ *Options have continued to play an important role in Price over the past decade. Presently, they drive prices significantly. I will produce a thorough explanation, in detail, in the next few days. It will include: 1. The 5 Greeks and how they function - Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega & Rho. 2. Alpha and Beta relations from the Underlying to the Derivative. 3. The Yield Correlations. Have a great weekend, Good Luck on the Open - Trade Safe.
SP:SPX
by HK_L61
4