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Is this recent rally a bull rebound of a bear retracement? To make an assessment if the market has turned bear, during the closing second quarter on 29th June 2022, we discussed on the topic “Using S&P to Identify Recession and on the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago the tutorial posted here, we studied and expecting this current rebound, topic “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”. In today’s tutorial, I thought of doing a recap between the two videos and explore if the current market and its development, if it is a bull rebound heading to break another new all-time high or if it is a bear retracement? I have included both the video links below. Before we get into this topic, please also take some time to read through the disclaimer in the description box below. Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Tutorial example: Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 0.25 = US$0.50 1.00 = US$2 (12,900 - 11,900) x US$2 =US$2,000 (Note: Opposite is also true) • During the closing second quarter in June, on 29 Jun - “Using S&P to Identify Recession • On the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago - “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by konhow
30
ES - Monthly Risk Range / Impending COLLAPSE2007 Levels will be upcoming into October 2023. Summer Counter-Trend has more room for the upside. The Monthly Risk Range is at extraordinary risk. "Others" are getting it all together for the Early Fall Classic. Extreme patience is required for the SELL, it will continue to develop over time, blink and you'll miss it. Financial Media continues to caution Bear Market Rally without mentioning the extremes to which they can and have occurred @ 10 - 21%. This one will fail as well as PE's become even more distended and detached from the collapsing NET's and forward Sales. Summer has always been the time of year for Wall Street to begin the next Grift, this one is no different. Cyclically - 8 weeks from the Weekly Pivot for time lined up perfectly within the 112 Week Cycle (111.8) with 2/3 weeks of Wally World left to complete. $2 Trillion in Pocket lining Stimmy for the "Others" and the Assault Weapons (Rifle) debate on tap. Pelosi (CCP Ladyboy) suggesting a visit to Taiwan is in order... A FED who appears to prefer confusion and delay ahead of the Greater Collapse - all the while destroying the Labor Markets, while Buffet and his ilk prepare for Sharecropping the Sheeple. __________________________________________________________ The Investment Establishment continues to maintain a balanced Portfolio of Stocks and Bonds - 90% of the Industry. Independents beg to differ, they believe avoidance is the optimal strategy. Risk On versus Risk Aversion. ___________________________________________________________ Goldman Sachs predicted a 14% rise in Equities into 2008, December of 2007 it collapsed 36%. Wall Street setting the expectations for Greed once again, but failing to deliver sans a more massive wealth transfer - deliverance. The 2 main reasons are quite simple: 1. Status Quo Bias - Unwillingness to accept the 10%, only the 90%. 2. Cognition Bias - Confirmation Bias that filters existing preconceptions. ______________________________________________________________ Numbers never lie, however, fudged they may be. Lying is part and parcel of the Grift. 56% at minimum will come off the Indices in the first leg lower. It will head far lower over the coming years exceeding the 4-year 90% cycle during the Great Depression, this will be far greater. Concentrations are trending further towards non-representation of Humanity form every point on the Arrangement Curve.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
13
NASDAQ Engulfing to down in 30 minutes chartEngulfing candles on Nasdaq at 30 minutes. Artificial Pump is over. I really do not understand how idiotic could people be buying #stonks from companies after their negative earning reports and fed hikes of interest rates. How could one invest into something knowing that it will lose your money. Imminent #bigcursh coming - big companies reporting negative #earnings <=> Markets continue pumping up - #interestrates increased worldwide <=> Markets still continue pumping up - #GDP shrinking <=> Markets continue pumping up more Even a small #BlackSwan and all will crush
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by viparmenia
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" . If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis. If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested. IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc. Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here. Cheers : )
AMEX:SPYShort
by FriscoTrades
2
NQ - 4 Hour / Trend to Counter-TrendTECH Bellwethers after the NYSE Close Today. Apple Changes Everything - 143 to 163 Range possible. Life extensions for Tech are DX, TNX, and Chips Bill finalized by the Senate 62 to 34 with a $282 Billion Giveaway ready for the Criminals in the House. ______________________________________________ The new Mid-Term distraction, forget Hunter and Joey, focus on Trump's "Indictment" - can't have the plebe's getting anxious about anything else. While they are sh_t mixed, let's get a Carries Group over to the South China Sea to protect Nancy while withdrawing from Black Sea Operations as Putin vows to send them all to the bottom. _______________________________________________ All is well... Sure it is.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
Nasdaq 100 - Eyes on the FEDRecently, we warned about the impending short-term bounce in the price of QQQ while sticking to our bearish outlook for the medium and long term. Today, we will pay close attention to the Nasdaq 100 index as the FED officials are expected to hike interest rates in the range of 50bps to 75bps. In our opinion, such a move by the central bank will negatively impact the U.S. economy. Higher servicing cost of debt, high rate of inflation, the prospect of global recession, and more economic tightening by central bankers will further weaken the slowing economy. As a result, we are increasingly anxious about the current rally. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the immediate support/resistance with the bullish potential above it and the bearish potential below it. Additionally, we will monitor volume to see if it is sufficient to propel the price higher. For the bullish prospect, we would like to see a further increase in price accompanied by a gradual increase in volume. We introduce the current trade setup in Illustration 1.01. It consists of two alternative scenarios. We will update the idea after the FED meeting. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bearish. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the current trade setup for the Nasdaq 100 index (continuous futures, NQ1!). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bullish. MACD is neutral. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
12
NQ, Channel in channel !NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures is showing a beautiful channel play ! There is a high slope minor up going parallel channel in low slope major up going channel. Index is reaching to upper top of both channels and reaction will be exciting. Break out from down side of minor channel will probably triggers for downward move to base of major parallel channel. In this case possible break out of base of major channel signals more down side in whole market. MACD MAY also make a bearish cross. Please note latest bearish crosses in MACD followed by sharp decline in the index. Possible True Break out of top of channels will trigger more up side move. Which sides of channels will be broken? We may have a guess and predictions but wise action is to watch carefully and follow the market not our predictions. This channel in channel setup sounds very interesting and I am happy to share this beauty of technical analysis with you. Good luck.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SaeedSajedi
3
Nasdaq 100 - NQ1! follows through with a relief rally A week ago, we abruptly warned investors that the stock market might be positioning itself for a significant bear market rally in the short term. We also clarified that we expected this move to range between 5-10%. Since then, the Nasdaq index has risen more than 5%. Currently, NQ1! (continuous futures) trades near 12 440 USD. We remain bearish in the medium/long-term; however, in the short-term, we think the index might continue higher and possibly test the resistance in the vicinity of 13 000 USD. This short-term view is supported mainly by technical factors. Meanwhile, fundamental factors continue to stay bearish. Higher interest rates, economic tightening, and looming recession pose a threat to the U.S. economy. Indeed, we think the rally might be put to an end if the FED follows through with the rumored rate hike on 27the July 2022. That would further pressure the U.S. economy, which is already at a weak point. In our opinion, the bear market rally's presence is also indicated by the enormous magnitude of moves across various stocks. Historically, bear market rallies tended to perform very well, often in double digits. That, in return, often led to confusing market participants who would later feed the cycle of buying and selling. Because of that, we think it is premature to say that the bear market is over. Illustration 1.01 The bullish breakout occurred, further bolstering the bullish case in the short term. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX contains a relatively low value, which indicates that the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but with a weak trend. Illustration 1.02 The chart shows simple support and resistance lines. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bullish. MACD performed a bullish crossover. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Tradersweekly
8
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9