On My Radar: watching reaction when we tap into daily FVGWatching reaction when we tap into daily FVG above. Will price retrace lower ? will it retrace lower and then bounce?
Oct 13 was the low last year, it signaled the seasonal low before taking off to the upside for Q4.
I am watching carefully now to see if we stick with seasonality trends.
CPI/PPI/ other economic numbers could propel us higher or lower.
NQ
SPX Weekly Outlook ending Oct 13We have one large gap above and 2 gaps below. As usual, 4300 and 4200 are the whole number support.
Above 4325; we can go for the gap fill to 4400-4405. Over 4405 is 4465
Below 4300 is 4200 and then 4150 then 4100.
Remember, the JPM collar is calling for 4500 above and then 4050 below.
QQQ Short under $372I took a short at $372 using credit-calls. The thesis is that NASDAQ:QQQ has made lower highs creating high-resistance liquidity and has shown a propensity to cheese-knife down below prior swing-lows.
This is a bearish run.
There is a swing-low at $348 that is a possible bounce area; but I think that NASDAQ:QQQ intends to challenge the $372 zone anyway.
This zone is an old swing low that was taken out which makes it a high resistance area. Fading a rally to this price makes sense.
The thesis is valid if the price action toward $372 is indirect and drawn out. The thesis is less valid if price moves strongly toward $372.
The prior swing-high at $380 is much higher resistance and presents a great short opportunity that could open up if $372 becomes challenged.
For now selling premium on the short side at $372 makes sense.
If we reach $348 a buying opportunity may form.
Lastly - 27th SEP took out the 18th AUG Swing-low thus I think the market structure is still bearish which makes any swing-higher to be fadeable unless it starts to take out prior swing-highs.
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles.
The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately.
The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong.
My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393).
I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next.
Follow my research.
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that.
May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
Nasdaq Bounce from L-MLHWhat a drag yesterday.
The red Fork gives us very good context.
We see how price reacted two times at the Center-Line.
Then came the "Flush" throu the CL with no pull-back.
No Mercy!
This move brought us down to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. From here price starts to bounce.
It's also a level where NQ had support (see left side).
So far, divergence with the RSI is confirming a good potential for a bounce.
But I don't believe in this support, until we break the downsloping "Change In Behaviour" line. Price must prove that is has enough strenght.
If this CIB line gets broken, I expect a pullback to it.
This would be the level where I would stalk a long entry, with a target at the Center-Line.
Happy Hump-Day Tr8dingN3rds
Nasdaq - Bounce from here or tankWow, what a nice day today.
I shorted the NQ all day intraday.
Now on the bigger picture, it's decision time BabyNQ ;-)
Either the Bulls can pick it up, or it will flush below the red Center-Line.
I could imagine that the NQ will bunce from here, as it's the right time in the day and the Confluence with the CL.
Let's see...
Weekly Plan NQ Futures Week Of 9-2409/25 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures December ESZ2023.
Weekly Pivot is 14,988
Targets
15,151 9/20 gap top
15,361 last week's vpoc
15,514 prior 5D balance half back
Targets
14,816 250% extension of 5D balance break down
14,628 300% extension of 5D balance break down
15,526 6/8 gap bottom
Now trading at 14,880 NQZ
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 14,880.
Weekly pivot at 14,98.
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
Prior day balance zone is H15,714, HB15,535, L15,352
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.
DEVELOPING. NQ 60-min. Long/Bounce.Looking to play tech for a bounce here. Demand Zone is sourced from 60-minute chart within the context of longer-term timeframes. As overarching market structure is somewhat of a concern, look to harvest short-term profits quickly and leave runners for intermediate-term swing long if able. Safety first!
NQ1!, Rollover, OPEX and etc.Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are not comfortable with reading the price action or does not have a grasp on what price levels are important. Market action creates a lot of noise and may derail any professional. My approach is to go to a higher timeframe to filter out the noise and most important to focus on the important price levels.
A Fib retracement on the chart gives those projected levels to focus on. Here is my price action dissection: multiple attempts to get over the 61.8% have failed, the price is pushed back hard to retest the levels below. I added a new rectangle as the area of interest. I do not attempt to predict whether those level hold or not. I let the market to show that. In my view, the price is stuck in a large consolidation area since June, a few fake outs in August pushed the price back in the middle of that consolidation. Usually, the middle of a consolidation area is where the price oscillates while both sides make attempts to gain control and this is exactly what we see since the last week of August.
09/16/2023
Learn To Trade Breakout/Flags More Efficiently - Part IIn my first tutorial, I tried to show how price channels can be used to identify and validate strong trade setups. Additionally, I attempted to show you how to identify better trade setups from what I consider invalid trade setups.
Understanding and maintaining at least a 2:1 Reward-to-risk factor for any trade you consider taking is essential. Secondly, it is essential to understand and use proper allocation levels for trades.
The simple way to understand allocation levels is to focus on the RISK amount. If your trade risks $5 per share and you can't afford to risk $500 on this trade, then you should NOT attempt to trade 100 shares of this stock.
Set your risk level based on how much you intend to risk for the trade - nothing more.
If you can only risk $250, then you would only trade 50 shares.
If you can only risk $125, then you would only trade 25 shares.
Learning to find and identify proper trade setups on Daily and Weekly charts is critical for success in the long run. I firmly believe price tells us everything we need to know about a chart, and indicators reflect price.
As you continue to learn some of the techniques I use in various price chart setups, I hope you can refine your techniques to become better traders.
I will likely create a PART II and PART III version of these types of advanced trade setups.
Hope you enjoy.
Weekly analyze for NQU2023Hello fellow trader.
in my analyze for this week 09/03/2023 i project a down close candle for NQU2023 if u open your weekly chart u will see the NQ reached an weekly Bearish OB and respected it, then if you move to the daily chart u will see a BISI/fvg bellow and a daily bullish OB i think the market will target that level for the upcoming days or weeks if we stay bellow the weekly Bearish OB ofc
NQ1!, The Contract Rollover GameTo start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm referring to the Fib retracement.
9/9/2023
Weekly SPX outlook ending Sep 15SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week.
Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300.
Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560.
We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful.
Could potentially take SPX 4465c and 4465p 09/18 on Sunday when SPX opens @ roughly 29.00 each. PT would be 90-100.00 on either leg.
Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September?The last ten days of price action produced a retrace of significant magnitude that was very kind to institutional friends who were net long from early June.
That is to say, what has transpired since all three indexes took their January of 22 failure pivot levels in early July has been more consistent with an optimal short entry combining with a bull trap, combining with a chance for big players who were either still full long or partially long to mitigate their losses and exit their positions.
But retail, especially those who foolishly follow the messages emitted on social media, regard price action as "confirmation" that we're on our way to a new bull market.
The macro economic situation is that the Federal Reserve has reiterated that while it may slow the pace of hikes going forward, depending on economic data, there is no intention whatsoever to pivot.
When you consider the above in light of monthly candles trading so far above their long-term trendline, big big danger flags should be going off in your head.
The reason is that Fed rates connect to bond yields. Bonds also have a feature where as they pay more interest the price also goes down, way down.
What this means is that there's huge alpha to generate for big funds and big banks who trade very long time frames in selling equities at a high price, buying bonds at high yields and low prices, and sitting on that position instead of taking risks on commodities and equities while the world is in a really bad situation.
Weekly candles show us more clearly that significant areas of concern that should be retraced to before any further upside is rationally thought to be on deck were not achieved before the bounce.
A big problem facing the markets at present is the existence of the Q3 "JPM Collar," which I discuss here:
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
It's worth noting that JPM, which sold calls with a strike of 4,665 at the end of July, has not been in the red on that portion of their position yet, although whoever bought them has certainly made money since price approached 4,665 very quickly after purchase.
The bigger component of their trade is that the most significant bank on this planet is long 15,800 puts with a strike of 4,225 that have never been in the money since they were purchased.
Expiry date is September 29.
Because of time decay, for JPM to break even on that portion of its position, we would need prices approach 4,000 and the VIX to push over 20 to pump implied volatility premium, and all in only a few weeks.
And although this is a Nasdaq call, one index fuels all three indexes.
A problem with thinking the indexes have bottomed is that while the Nasdaq may have rebalanced a gap before the pump, the SPX did not:
And even less did the Dow, which has traded like a heavy bag of rocks despite having the strongest recovery from last October's dump of any of the three indexes.
The algos have a habit of making all three indexes do the same thing before the page really turns.
You're also dealing with a worldwide economic and geopolitical situation where everything is heavily balanced by a horsehair.
And that horsehair is the Chinese Communist Party, which looks like it will take Xi Jinping to its grave with it.
The CCP is about to collapse, and it will happen overnight, in the middle of the night, and there will be a lot of gap downs.
The reason the market is still trading in a structured way is simply because the U.S. Empire and the globalist faction, which wants to install the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide, ramble on about "War With Taiwan" all the time because the intention is to take control of China when the CCP falls using a Taiwan-based proxy.
"But the best laid plans of mice and men often go awry."
The problem for all of humanity is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million spiritual practitioners by the CCP and former Chairman Jiang Zemin starting July 20, 1999.
Organ harvesting, rape, murder, and things worse than organ harvesting have never been beneath the CCP, and unfortunately, the rest of the world who has been funneling blood to the Party all these years to keep it afloat so it can keep on lying to the world.
And so what I can tell is arranged is that we dump hard into the end of Q3, and then it seems to me that we rally in Q4, probably back towards the index highs, with all of 2024 being an economic nightmare.
Donald Trump looks like he's going to prison and won't be able to save you. Not that Donald Trump is capable of saving anyone, lol.
So Biden will win by default because nobody is going to vote for DeSantis or Vivek, and the socialist spending schemes and the crashing of the world economy is arranged.
But because the CCP is on the brink of falling and China is not a country that any outside forces have ever been able to capture in its 5,000 year history, perhaps before the year is out we will see the rally truncated sharply.
"Watch Out For Fire."
The call:
Short Nasdaq now anticipating a ruthlessly bloody September, close under 14,000.
Go long under 14,000. Close when you have a lot of profits and cash out.
Brokerages aren't going to be processing withdrawals anymore than Binance is right now when the CCP collapses.
Everyone will be trying to run for their lives. It's very dangerous. Nobody should have supported Marxist-Leninism, the CCP, and the persecution of Falun Gong's true cultivators.
But they did. And the consequences are not something people can bear.
NQ1!, Market Keeps on TeasingIn the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside continuation to the channel mid, if not than the 23.6% is the next downside target. In the environment with high level of uncertainty focusing on small areas is a mechanism to protect yourself from a headache.
09/02/2023
NQ - A gift from the trading gods?To me this is indeed a gift from the trading gods.
Price retests the U-MLH a third time.
So, if you missed the entry (see my website & YT channel), then this is another chance to bake some Bread, instead of Donuts.
My stop would be a couple points above the pivot high.
Watch my videos and posts about this trade to understand it!