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Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.72%, down from 3.95% last week according to VXN data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile, while according to VXN, we are on 41th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 3.4% movement Bearish: 3.5% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 12475 BOT: 11525 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 12145 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 11480 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 40% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 93.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns for Dec 5 thru 9 - A Flat Sideways Melt-upI love the fact that traders are messaging me asking questions regarding my SPY Cycle Patterns. Thank you. I hope all of you are starting to see some value from my research and using it to profit from some of these moves higher. Right now, and probably until next week (Dec 12 of later), the markets will probably slide into a fairly volatile sideways melt-up phase. I'm expecting a 4 to 6%+ volatility range over the next 7+ trading days before some catalyst sends the markets higher. I've listed all the SPY Cycle Patterns for December below. I've highlighted the key days (**) that I believe will create a bias trend in December. The other patterns may still represent upward trending and volatility. 12/1/2022 Flat-Down 12/2/2022 Harami-Inside 12/3/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 12/4/2022 GAP22 Potential ** 12/5/2022 12/6/2022 Top 12/7/2022 Flat-Down 12/8/2022 Break-Away 12/9/2022 Carryover 12/10/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/11/2022 Top/Resistance21 12/12/2022 Consol-210 12/13/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/14/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/15/2022 Breakdown201 12/16/2022 Break-Away ** 12/17/2022 Carryover 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP ** 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/25/2022 Rotation 12/26/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/27/2022 Breakdown201 12/28/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/29/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/30/2022 Top 12/31/2022 Flat-Down
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
The Santa Rally Continues - Don't get stuck in Perma-Bear modeFar too many people got burned over the past 24 hours by betting the FARM on the Fed coming out Hawkish. I was chatting with a guy on Twitter last week about his call for a deep selling phase (possibly reaching COVID lows) in the US markets. His followers got burned by today's move (some really badly). You have to shift with the market trends and prepare for the unexpected. My research kept my followers away from risks and has been pointing towards a Wave-5 rally setting up in the US markets for many months. I use my Custom Indexes to get a better "feel" for how the markets are reacting to various inputs/outcomes. My Rotational Modeling system has been cautious for more than 14+ months - off only -6% for 2022. Many other Hedge funds are off by at much as -40% to -60%. Days like today, if you were lucky enough to survive them, will teach you a few lessons... Don't get married to a trend Protect capital at all times READ THE DATA - not the emotions Price can fool you - so protect your position. Follow my research.. Or, at least, check out my content before you decide to place your trade. Check out my SPY Cycle Pattern posts. Ask questions if you have them. This move isn't over yet.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
QQQ stays choppySince its recent peak on 15th November 2022, the price of QQQ drifted lower by about 4%. Currently, it trades for around 282$. We continue to be bearish on the Nasdaq 100 index and pay close attention to market developments. To support our bearish thesis, we would like to see QQQ continue to hold below the immediate support/resistance. Additionally, we would like to see a pick-up in volume accompanying a price decline. Contrarily, if QQQ breaks above the immediate support/resistance, it will be bullish. As far as fundamental factors go, these support our bearish thesis on the macroeconomic level. The FED and other central banks are pursuing tighter economic conditions to beat high inflation, which will inadvertently slow down the economy even more. With that in mind, we dismiss that the primary downtrend has hit bottom. Accordingly, our price targets for QQQ stay at 280$ and 270$ (10 000$ for NQ1!). Illustration 1.01 The setup we introduced recently remains valid. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are neutral. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time is neutral. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic points to the upside. MACD also points to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
25
SPY Cycle Patterns for Nov 28 Thru Dec 2 - A Sideways Melt-upThis week, I expect a bit of a sideways melt-up before the Dec 7 start of the Santa Rally. The markets are digesting the post Thanksgiving trends and may continue to stay in a fairly narrow range over the next 7~10+ days. I do believe a critical Fibonacci inflation point is likely before Dec 7~10 - prompting a moderately strong Santa Rally phase to start. Reading some of the comments on Twitter, analysts and various traders seem to be all over the place. Some are calling for a massive price collapse to take place. Others are suggesting a new rally phase will take place. What I can tell you is that, which you should be watching my Youtube videos to follow my Custom Indexes, global traders are shifting capital away from global risks and into US Dollar based assets. This trend will likely continue for many months still. The unwinding of global speculative excesses (particularly in nations which saw big increases in home values - think China/Asia, Canada, others) and/or those caught in the pre-Covid excess credit/debt trap (the cheap USD carry trade) will likely continue to struggle as the "revaluation event" puts even more pressure on these foreign markets. Canada is an interesting example. A fairly strong economy that saw a big increase in wealth, asset valuations, and investments before, through, and even after COVID. The excesses were fueled by a global speculative phase (rising prices), almost like a "tulip bubble" where everyone through "I can't miss this incredible opportunity"... So they jumped in AT ANY COST. Just like what we saw with Bitcoin, the downside to that rally may be a -50% to -70% decline of certain assets over time. One must try to understand that when an environment of weaker asset growth (homes and other tangible assets) settles in throughout the world, capital will seek three things: Safety Security ROI You can't find these three things in extended underperforming assets (think China/Asia, Canada, others). That capital MUST move towards any economy that will contract the least, has the strongest base valuation correlation, and has the potential for moderate earnings, revenues, and RECOVERY. In my opinion, that is the US, UK, and possibly Japanese markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 4.06% , down from 4.19% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 78th percentile, while with VXN we are on 39th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 3.43% In case of bearish - 3.48% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 23.6% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 12223 BOT: 11239 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 11531 77% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 11931 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 40% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BEARISH trend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
NQ has the same as ES setupCurrently at the support zone, a long can be taken with a tight stop Needs to test the bull trendline imo before any significant bounce. For now its quite far way to test though. NQ should be leading in big 4, so must watch on the decline we get next week. Main resistance is the previous high into the resistance box, it has not to even get tested for lower lows to be seen. If tested and taken, all the NQ downside targets like 8.5-9k will off the table, at least for the short term. Must continue lower and test the first box of the support, if the bounce will be short lived and weak, expect more weakness into the main support zone and the uptrend channel test
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
VIX setting up for a Santa Rally?I've spent a lot of time drawing on the VIX chart today since we are coming up on an area that defines 3 separate ascending wedge patterns with one starting before the 2020 run that we have tapped twice without making a lower low. And although that lower trendline is still quite a way down, currently at 16.57, it's not a far stretch if retail sales come out strong, JP keeps quiet, and there are plans for a Santa rally lurking behind the scenes. With that being said, we have just broken the next oldest pattern, and the youngest one not much farther down at 19.66 and the .86 fib of the 2020 run up is smack in the middle at 20.13 so for tomorrow, I have potential reversal area from 20.44 to 20.13 with 20.13 to 19.71 becoming bearish down to below 19. My argument for the upside is a bit more hocus pocus as I had to put on a pitchfork to even feel good about it, but we made the inside candle Friday, which, big deal, it was a half day, but following that with an outside candle on a retail rich week wouldn't shock me at all. So I'm gonna throw my dart. If we gap up, we hit around 21.30 and come back down to close between 19.89 and 20.13 in which case the case for breaking down past 19.66 becomes more likely. SANTA RALLY!!! But, if we gap down into that bounce zone and don't break the 20.13, then we still close high and and head back to Wednesdays high. I like this case more if we bounce off the Daily low and just double bottom. BUT, I'm still leaning to a high of 22.30 on the WEEK, just because I feel like the case is better stated for a downside overall. We just have much more reason to pull back down with the biggest reason being that we haven't retested that 2020 pattern for over a year. Historically I don't see any rhyme or reason except that VIX does tend to rise during December if only for a day, and even that isn't well structured. Sooo... who the knows then the VIX is gonna VIX. What we do know is that we have spent so much time in what used to be high volatilely territory that we've started to make a home here and that contradicts what the VIX is designed to do. We've held above averages, between $10-20, for more days and gone higher than we did in the '08 housing crisis, and all while our economy is too strong for its own good. So we've either become fairly melodramatic, OR we're setting up residence. If the latter is true then we can just throw out all historical data that predates circa 2018 and start anew. I personally want to see what happens if we break down below 16.50. Do we stabilize and go back to a boring trend style value market? Or does everyone freak out and rabidly buy everything in sight. All we can do is wait, and look to the right.
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks. For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled. Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BitcoinMacro
nasdaq 11-21 ~ good afternoon, here's what the nasdaq looks like from a bullish perspective. --- local dip to backtest local downtrend, in confluence with the local 50~88% retrace of the big pop from the other day. i'm labeling this dip as the second 1-2 within what looks to me like a bullish nest . --- if i'm right about the nest, we will see tech take off big time over the next few weeks, bigger than any of us are currently expecting. --- not financial advice, take my art with a grain of salt.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by notoriousbids
SPY Cycle Patterns For Thanksgiving Week - Sideways Melt-UpHere you go. This week I expect the markets to melt upward with a couple of bottom/momentum bottom patterns as well as holiday trading liquidity. This week may see some volatile price swings, but overall I believe the US markets will continue to melt upward. As we near the end of the year, I expect some traders to try to pull out of positions (anchoring in tax losses) and repositioning early in 2023. Enjoy your holidays with family/friends. Follow my research if you are looking for more detailed analysis of the US/Global markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
QQQ - Potential top for the rally + new price targetsOver the past few days, we hinted at several warning signs on Nasdaq's continuous futures chart. Since the index broke above 11 734$, it has trended mostly sideways with declining volume at elevated prices. In our opinion, this continues to hint at the unsustainability of the rally, and therefore we would like to set new price targets for QQQ. Our new short-term price target is 280$, and our new medium-term price target is 270$. The price target for NQ1! stays the same, at 10 000$. Our views are based on fundamental and technical factors detailed in the current and previous articles. *to invalidate our thesis about the potential top, we would like to see QQQ break above Resistance 1* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) and several technical developments indicated by colorful arrows. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish. Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) on the daily chart. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic and RSI point to the upside. The same applies to MACD, which stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
16