nasdaq daily technical say : fibo 161% 13333 is nasdaq target for short term nasdaq want touch daily chart fibo 61% =12500 see blue fibo in left side (after sell pinbar on higher time frame we can pick low size sell with Sl on pinbar high,ok?)
then it must pullback aand touch breaked trendline
still i advice 90% looking for buy in deep (after pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart come ) and hold it 7-8 day to new high
wonderful = see COT data (big banks net open orders,they on sell !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?
what is bad scenario ? if red trendline break nasdaq can crash to 10.000 area (fibo 161% exactly 9700
if you have old sells against my last 3 month analyse=
1-if you are near margin call,you must put hedge buystop on last high(friday high) and never close that buy,,,wait and in next low close sells frist then wait for next high and close buy understand? if you close buy frist you will 0.00
2-if you are safe and your size is low,,,wait 20-30 day for above green arrow in 11900 ,close all sell and pick buy and hold30-40 day to high
wish you win my friends , think 1 month about this secret = stable profit secret is simple 1- stand on very very low size and fix size and very low levrage (max 1-20) big levrage =big size = margincall
2- always put Sl on last high,low ,,,eat SL not bad show pro trader high control on mind and powerfull skill , new traders want eat only TP and cant eat SL = margincall
www.tradingview.com
NQ
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is ComingEverywhere I look I hear the narrative that we should be making new lows and everyone should be dumping because the Federal Reserve won't pivot and because the inflation keeps going up.
Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar.
Dow has always been the weakest index. It fell farther during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria. It rallied less during the greatest bull market of all time. It dumped more during this year's corrections.
Yet, the Nasdaq and the SPX have lagged it, and lagged it hard, during last month's 2022 Low of the Year recovery.
This should have any bull's interest piqued, and yet, because prices are low, they're not. People just want to get short. Everyone is telling you to look below October's low.
Sometimes I think to myself that people actually like buying high and selling low, if only because they're just very attached to "seeing" and "confirmation." Ordinary people all follow this idea that "I won't believe what I don't see" and are completely unwilling to exercise even a modicum faith.
It's fundamentally irrational.
Yet, if you never change this deficiency, you will never be able to leave the bottom of the Cosmos and the bottom of life. The whales will always eat you, for you will always be plankton.
As with all fractals, take a step back and look at the wider horizon. Nasdaq would have to fall another 10% from its October LOY to bounce off the pre-COVID highs, something which that pesky Dow already did in June.
Not only that, but Nasdaq left two really significant areas of low volume on its way down this year. One of those areas just happens to be right above the August bear market rally highs.
Taking a look at the weekly, we can see that for six straight weeks, Nasdaq trades under equilibrium for the total COVID-panic <--> all time high range.
When people who are trading billion dollar position sizes take a look at this phenomenon, they're looking to get long, but hedging short. Unlike retail, who wants to buy puts thinking that 6,000 will come on CPI Thursday.
On the daily, we can see that there's a lot of manipulation around this trendline superstition. "Meh June low trendline support has become resistance. This is going down!" is what every retail trader has been Pavlov's Dogged into believing and thinking.
Nasdaq tends to be the most wild of the indexes. If Nasdaq had have traded like the Dow just did, it would have traded to 13,000 points.
Assuming that SPX and Nasdaq follow in the footsteps of Dow in this bear market rally, and don't kid yourself, Friday's price action should indicate to you that we're going higher, not heading for new lows, Nasdaq is likely to be more insane than the Dow, and very likely to take out the August bear market high.
While all and all I believe you're looking at a pending 30% rally, from where we stand now, you have 1,000 points to gain being long just to take out the October equal highs. This is enough to formulate trades with and make some good money on without having to take on a lot of risk.
Specifically, some of the key (and not-so key) tech stocks are set up to go totally rocketship. At least in my opinion:
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
&
META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull
&
BBIG Vimco Ventures - A Classic Triangle Pump
Trade carefully. When the Chinese Communist Party falls, it will happen while the US equities market is closed. Indexes will gap down 20% and stocks will gap down 50%. There won't be a recovery because every single bank will be completely risk off.
Almost all of Wall Street has dirty hands providing financial "blood transfusions" to the most evil and murderous regime in all of human history, one which despite having killed many times more people than Hitler, and having perpetrated the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong practitioners, has not only remained in power for more than 100 years, but it and its Marxist-Leninism is supported by virtually every government and its people in the whole world.
A lot of people, institutions, governments, and companies will run for their lives the day that Xi Jinping throws the Party away like Gorbachev threw the USSR away, because the nature of having a closet full of skeletons is that once sunlight is cast upon those unprecedented sins, the game ends in Checkmate.
"What an ordinary person believes can happen and what is actually happening are always two totally different things." -Lord Wrymouth
W for the Win QQQOk I waited for this and really doubt it would pan out.
We have a W pattern in the brink of a breakout.
Now, lets take the political spectrum. We are not in the climate for expansion after the dwarf star called the stimulus pack from 2020.
Even if it was not a recession it is hard to be bullish.
So lets get to it
Bullish View - Earnings report was interesting. There was very little that showed stock weakness including the massive move by Tesla. I can see $300 level being a big barrier from getting the W pattern to play out. Be vigilant that it can turn back around as quick as it ran up.
Bearish View - Lets be serious... how this run up still here? Being below the 0 line in the weekly does not bold well for enthusiasm to take this to 300, let alone the measured move of 310. Look for reversal patterns and exhaustion. Time to take this down, been months since a new low was formed.
NASDAQ: my view for Intraday and SwingHi Traders,
This is my view for this week on
NASDAQ
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
———————————
NQ Reverts Off 618 Support ($11,6389)If you are short, stay very cautious.
This base/bottom in the NQ may be the start of a breakout rally phase after months of consolidation below a strong downward sloping trend line.
Far too many people are failing to understand the market dynamics at play right now. Shorts are getting slaughtered as the reversion/reflation trade is happening.
Follow my research. This is just getting started.
MNQ struggling to break resistance. Launchpad setting upIf you trade the MICROS, like me, then you'll want to be cautiously aware of a key Flag/APEX pattern setting up in the MNQ.
Any breakout above the PURPLE resistance channel may prompt a strong upside price rally after February 12th or so.
Pay attention to the volatility over the next 10+ days as the ES/NQ/YM are likely to struggle and become wildly volatile as price attempts to break free of the downward trend channels.
If you have not been following my research, please check out my other TradingView posts and other resources.
The next 5+ years are going to be very surprising for traders/investors.
Get ready for a Wave-5 rally.
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet?
Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate:
SPY Cycle Patterns for this week:
1/15/2023 GAP Potential
1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal
1/17/2023 Breakdown201
1/18/2023 POP
1/19/2023
1/20/2023 BaseRally301
1/21/2023 Break-Away
1/22/2023 Rally-111
1/23/2023 Carryover
1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway
1/25/2023 Harami-Inside
1/26/2023 CRUSH
1/27/2023 Rev-Rally
Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached.
This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb.
Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
NQ/MNQ Futures Reaction AreasOn this chart are the reaction areas for the NQ, MNQ, NDX at least for the first part of the week.
I wanted to release this before the Sunday open because it might help for the overnight session.
All levels or areas have short descriptions.
I published this on a 30m chart (structure) because it really provides a good mix between my standard intraday (5m) timeframe and the 60m golden timeframe.
What is clear here is the zone between 12,000 - 12,9000 doesn't provide many high-probability reaction areas.
As usual, the focus for the week should be momentum and how well that is being held up, especially given the close on Friday. It was clear the market wanted to recapture the weekly open and it did just that.
Any downward move has to find support at some key reaction zone; otherwise, sentiment will shift against a continued upside move.
11,100 or so, really that key battle zone. If the price gets here and how it reacts will be key. Watching how the 60m momentum and bias hold LONG will be key going into the first few days of this trading week.
As far as known news events, Thursday is the big day. So as the week develops, plotting where Thursday wants to test and close will be key. I'll update this idea as we go along this week.
Aspects to Retail to Market Maker Trading Alignment Inventory management for market makers is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot. Market makers need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market.
When a market maker holds a large position in a security or derivative, it must be able to convert that position into cash quickly and at a stable price in order to meet its obligations. This is particularly important in situations where the market maker needs to meet margin requirements or respond to unexpected market movements.
As a result, market makers typically use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations. This includes monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative.
In summary, market makers' inventory management is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot, they need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market. Market makers use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative.
.... and Im bullish until the Market suggest otherwise. For Friday At least.
NQ UpdateRSI hit overbought, looks like it pulled back.
ECB and Fed speakers tomorrow. Not sure what the pump is all about this morning since I'm not trading, but I might take a stab at some put options overnight.
I don't have much faith in the central banks actually doing their jobs correctly, so going light. Either way, I wouldn;t hold any long positions tonight.
SPY Swing Long on ReversalSPY dropped to a mid Fib level from the recent pivot high and bounced.
Price is now rising in a channel predictive for a 1% rise tomorrow.
The ADX indicator shows the negative direction reversed and now positive
and rising out of the chop zone confirms the reversal as a solid one not
a fake out as does the MACD with a crossover under the histogram
I will trade this with strike 392 calls for expiration this Friday expectant
for 25+% return in two days
ES Looking For Support Near 3920 - Then LIFTOFFPay attention. Today will likely be a large range bar - possibly with a deep low near 3920.
My SPY cycle patterns call today a "Major CRUSH". That means we could see a very large price range today.
Combined with other SPY Cycle patterns, I believe the ES will attempt to establish a base/bottom - retesting recent lows.
As we move into 2023, be aware that cycle trends have shifted. We are entering a Wave-5 bullish price trend.
This Wave-5 trend may not result in new all-time highs this year, but we should see a solid recovery/reversion back to the upside.
There are still risks related to the global banking/credit system, so stay cautious of crisis events.
Follow my research. Pay attention to the clear market data - not the perma-bears that continue to tell you a "major crash" is about to happen.
After today, we move into more bullish consolidation as Earnings start to hit.
SPY Fibonacci & TA. Bullish Target Above $410.For everyone interested:
Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data).
SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts".
Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target on a strong rally phase.
Don't play around with this trend. If you are SHORT - PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL.
Economic data continues to suggest the US markets will resolve to the upside if inflation trends continue to weaken.
Follow my research & videos.
I've been trying to warn you about the start of a Wave-5 rally for more than 5+ months.
NQ going into the CPI releaseHere is a quick update for those who follow my work and are not on our new site yet.
It's a critical turning point here, going into the CPI report, so I want to share my thinking, and hopefully, you won't get trapped regardless of tomorrow's am outcome.
I'm doing a more detailed analysis, but I will post a short version here.
First of all, I pointed out last week that the 11th should mark the important high.
Well, we got it!
Now, it doesn't have to be a daily high, but the daily closing high! So tomorrow can be an intra-day high with am spike.
I still think we could get a sort of OCT 13th CPI release action, but in another way - Gap and Dump!
If CPI will come in-line or a bit higher, let's say 6.6-6.7%, it can produce a knee-jerk reaction and sell from there.
There is a good fib confluence at 11600NQ for that move.
Our main target got hit today, and I warned yesterday, that it should see a higher number; it did!
The price has closed right at the resistance, so it satisfied the whole move up right there, in case it is just going to dump from the open
Support and resistances are on the chart.
I will also be doing SPX update and will post it at the end of the week here.
This chart should be enough for those looking for a good analysis out there without any commitment.
So don't be surprised if you see a big spike up, DO NOT chase it!
If it happens, I will use that opportunity to add to my short position
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure.
Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility.
Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023:
Netflix - January 17th
Alphabet - January 31st
Meta Platforms - February 1st
Apple - February 2nd
Amazon - February 2nd
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Tuesday Bleed?What can we expect from the upcoming news events?
Im still very bullish on the dollar.
I anticipate short selling well into the first 3 months of the year.
Mitigating the massive amount of hodling, which in turn clears up books to bring in fresh interest.
If we get below the 10K mark, I can make the expectation that a bottom may form after 2025. This is an intuitive guess.