FOMC - NasdaqSo Tuesday, the high of the week? quite possibly.
Wednesday, FOMC and Powell announce a 75bps rate hike. Talks down the market.
Conveniently for anyone that shorted the gap fill, their target of the resting liquidity under the double bottom was realised.
NQ
NQ watch the bold support!Below that support its over for the bulls, big time!
As mentioned many times before, we will re visit Fri lows, we are almost there
Lets see if it test it and holds for the 3rd time
Simple RSI/FIB Price System - BITCOIN BULLISHI've taught this system to hundreds of people over the past few years. It is a simple HIGHER HIGH/LOWER LOW system based on RSI 60/40. It is great for making decisions about longer-term trending and you can apply short-term technical analysis tools to 4 hour or other intervals to catch shorter-term trends.
BITCOIN is BULLISH using this system.
In fact, I would not be surprised to see $29k to $32k before the end of 2022.
The BASE/BOTTOM appears to be already in place and now we are simply waiting for some of that Christmas Rally momentum to push BITCOIN higher.
Follow my research and learn how I can help you stay ahead of the biggest market trends.
nasdaq 4 hour : traders watching red trend and fibo 61% 12500personaly i belive nasdaq will see fibo 61 12500 soon
strongly advice dont pick sell
if you have old sell you must close or hedge after red line break ...break it mean new +up trend start
good luck
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low?
Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise?
On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish.
Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule.
Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500.
With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index.
With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position.
Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300.
The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Disclaimer:
The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
Look where NQ closedYou tell me if its bullish setup into next week or not.
Gaping up and holding the breakout (white line) support/resistance will be def a breakout, otherwise Im not in that camp, even if its going to gap up on Sunday open.
All ES and SPX extensions I was looking, got hit.
Monday can be (and I think it will be) a very bearish day, lets say Spooky Monday!
Cant say happy Halloween as I dont cheer or celebrate dark/evil holidays, but it def can be one for the markets.
Have a great rest of your weekend, I will update SPX chart tomorrow.
Cycle Patterns for Nov-2022 - Enjoy the November RallyThank you to all of you who have been curious and asking questions. This past week I've been busy taking care of family issues and coding.
I'm still deep into researching cycles, frequencies, and cycle trends. Often, I take drives to clear my head and think about things.
Just last Wednesday, I came up with the idea that multiple cycles may be operating on different levels within a price chart (almost like the Multiverse) - but slightly different.
My thinking is these cycle structures are PAUSED when a primary cycle trend is active. So, there may be 5+ various cycles operating on a chart, but only ONE (the primary) is active at one time with a secondary cycle structure possibly driving shorter-term price structures.
I'm going to dig into this to see what I can find out.
Here are all of the November Cycle Patterns:
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover
11-6: CRUSH
11-7: Flat-Down
11-8: BreakAway
11-9: Rally
11-10: Rally
11-11: Rally
11-12: Carryover
11-13: Bottom
11-14: N/A
11-15: N/A
11-16: InsideBreakaway
11-17: BreakAway
11-18: WeekendGap/Flat
11-19: Gap Up-Higher
11-20: Consolidation
11-21: CRUSH
11-22: FlatDown
11-23: BreakAway
11-24: Carryover
11-25: Temp Bottom
11-26: Gap Reversal
11-27: Breakdown
11-28: Momentum Rally
11-29: Gap Up-Lower
11-30: TOP
Let's keep the chat going....
Have you found these cycle patterns useful?
Have you checked out any of my other research/charts?
What would you like my research to focus on?
How can I help you improve your trading?
Remember, these cycle patterns are mapped out into 2028~2029. They don't change AT ALL. I can tell you what will happen on any specific date based on my research.
Are you ready for a fairly big rally in November? It sure looks like the US markets are in for a bit of a momentum rally phase.
NQ is in trend channelShould of check NQ instead of ES, perfectly in trend channel
Will be looking for a higher low to re-enter with longs
Please note, I will cut all the longs at the EOD and flip short if we close on the highs!
NQ hitting daily downtrend lineThe NQ daily time frame is in a down channel. The
market hit the top of the channel and is now
making lower lows and lower highs pushing
towards the bottom of the channel. The market
has a down Fibonacci with an extension price point
9595.25 about -6,966 ticks below the market. As
long as the market stays below the down trend
line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one hour
time frame and to look for high prices in the sell
zone.
NQ is in clear bear flagI didnt have much time on research today, busy day.
But I did spend some time on the NQ, as I didnt do NQ update for a while.
I will also add comments to this post after I do my other research and go through few others updates I follow.
So stay tuned, high chance this chart will get updated with extra comments several times.
So as you can see on the chart, we are in a small (compare to the rest of the year) bear flag and we are already in most overbought conditions for this year including TRIN number and volume.
My best extension (if it was not topped yet and they will push it higher before the elections) is at 12110-50NQ, with the top of the channel at 12250-300.
But first it has to close above recent highs - 11750NQ
I do expect a yo-yo style (outlined on the SPX yesterday) going into EOM and then Midterms.
But the ideal target for this year is actually at 8-8.2k zone!
I know it sounds crazy, but hey wasnt today's numbers crazy early this year?
Some are still in denial.
I do not call for a crash any longer, as we are out of that window astrologically and cyclically but I want to see another 25-35% cut from today's levels before this is over and we bounce hard into a bigger B wave
No new highs next several years at min, maybe after 2026 if not 2032. I do expect 1999 and 2009 pattern, check it out.
Again I might be wrong as anyone else out there, but this is my long term view, gotta stick to it till I see clear changes in trend.
My plan for the short term is the same, its short tomorrow (Im already swing short) into EOM or 1-2nd FOMC rate decision) which should spark a rally and ideally mark the temp bottom going into the Midterms.
They might make a big hike and stop for this year. Canada already increased .50 points instead of .75 points today, so FED can surprise.
After the Midterms is where it gets tricky, I think we will have a last move down into week of 21st of Nov low, that should mark the low for the year.
Can we extend into next year, yes we can, I will be updating you with my view going forward into mid of Nov.
If something not clear, just shoot a question below this post.
Here is zoomed in chart
Also please dont forget to press that 🚀 sign under this post to push it up in algos for others to discover.
NAS : Sell 11631.0 SL 11636.0 TP1 11163.8 TP2 10800My current sell bias on NQ
Have sellers stepped back in this week?
Im always sure to keep a tight stop profile, because more or less if im wrong, then im wrong.
But im still short, we just made a new qtrly high. Let's see how this plays out.
We may see high price movements into the 2nd Qtr Supply, which is a maybe, but if so then longs could be considered in the short term.
This may just be a bear market rally?
Sell
11631.0
SL
11636.0
TP1
11163.8
TP2
10800
Three Drives Up Pattern This appears to be a Three Drives Up pattern, which is typically a topping pattern and may not follow through well at the bottom of a bear market; but I still expect some pullback to at least 50% retrace ~11100 or 62% ~11000. 11100 POC should show some support regardless of how far it runs. on a little longer TF there's also a POC around 11.2k.
Pattern fails if it makes more than 168% retrace.
We've got META and F earnings after the bell which I think will disappoint. Earnings whisper has META missing bad.
nasdaq : are you ready for 12800in my idea 12444 is nasdaq frist target
if you have old sell you must put sl on high , break high mean +up trend stasrt can go to 14000
goodluck
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq Looking to do 7 Swing RallyShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside in the higher time frame. Near term, cycle from 8.16.2022 high has ended and the Index is now rallying to correct this cycle in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the decline resumes. Down from 8.16.2022 high, wave (A) has ended at 10485.39 as the 45 minutes chart below shows.
Wave (B) rally is now in progress to correct cycle from 8.16.2022 high. Internal subdivision of wave (B) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (A), wave ((a)) ended at 11185, wave ((b)) ended at 10713, and wave ((c)) of W ended at 11431.75. Pullback in wave X ended at 10935.50 with internal subdivision as a zigzag. Down from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 11008, wave ((b)) ended at 11328.75, and wave ((c)) ended at 10935.50. This completed wave X. Wave Y higher is in progress as a zigzag structure. Up from wave X, wave ((a)) ended at 11530.25. Index should now pullback in wave ((b)) to correct cycle from 10.21.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes.
NAZDAQ 4hour : it going to EMA200 daily near 12800nasdaq break 3angel now we must put buystop on today high ...its frist target is fibo 61
be careful from open sell and put SL nasdaq can start wild rally to EMA200 daily 12800
if you have sell you must put SL on today high
good luck
US100 - Nasdaq - Long IdeaAt the end of last week the Nasdaq, flushed through some stops and had a bearish close. For the bears, they are feeling trapped as there was no follow-through to the downside.
In fact the snap back signalled a bullish reversal.
Today we have broken higher out of the opening range and the initial balance. We're just waiting for that pop to confirm that today is the start of a push higher.
1:20 Sell Limit Order : US100 Sell: 11440 SL 11490 TP 10500What A Friday, Sellers really got pushed out bad today,
Maybe because this week ended within internalizing intentions.
But here is a limit order I'll be paying attention next week.
I am still very bearish , and maybe for the long term ahead.
Here we have a open sell order with no recent retest, resting at the the top of the 3rd wave which was heavily extended throughout the week, indicating that from this area, price had a seller offering which was
substantial enough to shift the tonality of the market.
Bitcoin will rally as the 2022 Christmas Rally Takes StartsGet ready. Bitcoin will follow Tech/NQ as the Reversion Rally takes place over the next 4+ months (probably lasting well into Q1:2023).
I expect Bitcoin to rally to above $29k - possibly reaching as high as $35k.
My research suggests the US/Foreign markets are about to enter a Reversion Phase (rally trend) after nearly 12+ months of global/US selling pressure. Bitcoin should follow the Tech/NQ Sector higher over the next few months.
We should be looking for confirmation of this bottom/base over the next 4+ weeks. We need to see recent lows hold up and a moderate rally take place before November 12th.
This could be a decent rally for the US/NQ/Foreign markets if the US Dollar slides sideways/downward.
Follow my research
ATTENTION ! Free insightATTENTION! We have a solid opportunity to buy silver, accumulate it, and make millions.
Custom Cycle Patterns Update - Christmas Rally Setup 2022It appears I'm getting a few people that are following my Cycle Pattern research - love it.
For those of you that have not been following my research, here is a short history.
Many years ago I started researching cycles, Fibonacci, Gann, and other advanced techniques. I try to deliver all of my advanced research to those that are interested in what I'm doing.
Ultimately, I hope to unlock a few secrets related to how I see price action and attempt to better understand how cycles, patterns, frequency, amplitude, and shifting cycle phases really work in price cycles. If I'm able to do this, I should be able to accurately predict when and how markets will shift into different phases and how to trade them more efficiently.
Much of my research is now dedicated to understanding global market dynamics (the world market trends and what comes next). I have to say I've been quite accurate in my predictions over the past few years - but predicting the future is now something I can do accurately or easily. Yet, I continue to try to provide valuable information for everyone interested.
I warned of a market top setting up in July/Aug 2021 and warned everyone to start protecting trades and pulling profits as the US markets continued to peak.
I warned of a 3 to 5 wave correction taking place (a wave 4 downtrend) before a new Wave 5 (uptrend) was likely to potentially setup a Christmas Rally in 2022.
I've been actively suggesting the US markets were bottoming over the past 60+ days as long as certain support levels held up.
I believe Gold and Silver will start a very strong price rally once the US Dollar shifts into a sideways/downward slide (which may be happening right now).
I also believe foreign market ETFs & Technology shares will be the HOT TRIGGERS over the next 6+ months as investors attempt to buy deeply undervalued stocks.
What this means is we are going to go through a bit of a SHIFT in how capital is deployed and where to find opportunities over the next 6~12+ months.
But it also means traders/investors still need to be cautious. This is not an easy market to trade - and you should not start loading up on ETFs/Tech until we know the bottom is set.
Here is the complete Cycle Pattern for all of October and early November:
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
10-15: Gap Reversal
10-16: Breakdown
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
10-22: CRUSH
10-23: Gap Potential
10-24: Gap22 Potential
10-25: N/A
10-26: Breakdown
10-27: Harami/Inside
10-28: CRUSH
10-29: GAP Potential
10-30: Top/Resistance
10-31: Consolidation
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover
Remember, CRUSH patterns are BIG TRENDING BARS. They can be UP or DOWN, but generally, they tend to be downward bars (about 65% of the time).
Take a look at the end of October and early November.. It looks like a BOTTOM/BASE is going to setup in early November. Can you say "Christmas Rally"? It looks like we may see a shift in the US Fed attempting to make sure they don't break assets over the next few months.
Follow my research. This is going to be a great opportunity for the right trades/investments. Watch GOLD & SILVER. I believe these assets will move strongly higher over the next 12+ months.
DAY TRADE Market ConditionDay Trade Market Condition, Jesse Livemore "There is only one side to stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side" :
NQ, ES, CL, BTC (a day trader on NQ, markets I pay attention with);
Market Condition show on a table of each chart
Rally, long position offers higher success
SHOPzone, price fluctuate randomly between Supply/Demand levels (traders get burden mostly, day trading)
Drop, short position offers higher success
BULL, up trend for the week
Cumulating , keep eyes on left column (the first top 3 above)
BULL, down trend for the week
Top down approach for day trade, quoted from Jesse Livemore, "I must buy on a rising scale. I don't buy long stocks on a scale down I buy on a scale up."
NQ perfect am setup for those who followed!Well check those trend-lines held in am, was a perfect hit if you have followed this chart from yesterday.
Im swing short and not doing much till I see first extreme lows hit, then I will take profits and restrike higher
November is a panic month!
SELL NASDAQ - BACK TO NORMAL BELOW 11kMost of Q3 stocks earning so far are green, maybe last positive earnings report if FED didn't cut interest rate, but food and energy crisis will drive prices higher and there will be no chance to decrease inflation other than rising interest rates to lower demand and so prices.
At this point, DXY strength will continue and US equities will bleed especially in tech sector.
