Nasdaq: Calling the interim lowI am buying NQ with BOTH HANDS here. 2nd October 2022 is exactly 314 days from the November 2021 high. Im calling the low.
NQ
NQ watch for this trend channel to be broken to the upsideIm going to exit remaining of my MNQ short at 11060-70 zone (if it gets there)
Also started ES longs and 366 SPY calls
Have a great weekend
NQ: Buy it here the fear is overdoneNQ has tested its prior bottom and appears to be holding support. The risk/reward is skewed to longs here for a rally to 12400
NQ - still time for the right shoulderIm long here NQ and ES, tight stop though.
Needs above 11275, the target is 11380-90 by 6am or so.
If we see this move before the PCE numbers, I will exit longs and go short.
What if it will be a repeat of what happened last time PCE number was out.
Tomorrow should move the price above the last several days range, its also a directional change day and it could be a move in one direction but outside of the range.
So a low tomorrow or Monday (Im in a low on Fri/Sun for the futs) and rally into at least 5th or even 7th.
The rally will be muted and choppy imo just to reset the indicators.
Tomorrow is a not weekly, but monthly and quarterly closing!
Should be very interesting close and if it looses today's lows we could see another 100 points plus cut
Have a good night!
NQ will continue its free fall hello,
It was predictable that NQ will go down because of the over injection of dollar in the USA economy,
so it is normal that nq won't stand more this fall is its fatal destiny
always look up for sell opportunities do not buy.
remember i am not having a cristal ball prediction markets future but i try to be more efficient and more rational so kep eyes on my chart it will guide you it is simple to understand
good luck
NQ H&S can still be in playI have added some MNQ short on this spike, stop at 255 and started Oct 21st puts again
Done for today, watching the close and 3636-39SPX
NQ possible H&S for 500 more points down!Interesting, latest NQ update disappeared from my page, reposting again
This is getting more interesting, watching this possible pathway!
Will short at the resistance line for higher right shoulder
NQ possible H&S for 500 more points down!This is getting more interesting, watching this possible pathway!
Will short at the resistance line for higher right shoulder
NASDAQ 4 HOUR : buystop on high is best action for nowif nasdaq can break yesterday high ..it is powerfull buy signal and it can fly up
personaly i belkive nasdaq will see 13000 area soon if low not break
good luck
NQ is looking much lower!Here are the levels of importance for NQ on the downside:
- 11060
- 10656-500
- 10300
- 9990
The last 2 numbers are the main target zone now
I want one more push tomorrow.
Since it's not only weekly, but monthly and (very important) quarterly closing this Fri.
Last 2 quarter ends both resulted in selling last 2 days, something to pay attention to.
So a flush is very possible to start as early as tomorrow or ideally after Oct 3rd high.
I have closed my ES short at 3715.50, 3710.5 from 3727 and waiting to enter with some longs, but will have stops, dont want to wake up with a huge gap down.
Also Im in with some SPY 351 Oct 21st puts and some Fri SPY calls from the close.
If we break down, I will be entering to my swing MNQ position.
For now I want to see a standard 50-61.8% retracement to get long in am.
ES is at 3665 (main target) and 3682
NQ is at 11377 and 11322 (I like 11355 as a target)
Here is 1h chart with support and resistance white lines
Good night
NQ is at its own resistance levelSo here is NQ at the same stop as the ES, must hold here, then tomorrow's low should be a higher low and then we breakout into Oct 3rd high with the window dressing rally (those become rare this year)
nasdaq 9-22 update~nasdaq still looks to be on track to make a new high before this year ends.
i shared this nq idea not too long ago, and it ended up playing out nicely - check it out if you missed it:
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it's easy to get caught up in the bear funk that's going around these last few days,
but the charts point up in the mid-term, so that's what i'm mostly focused on.
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11,342--->14,300 into new years ~
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ps. nq making this last leg down could pull es down slightly lower too, to about 3730~3710 before the bullish pivot.
Q's to 287Minimum target. Getting over that and we could see a test or fill of the gap area around 302 - 308. Good luck!
NDX 2008 vs NDX MAsNDTW = the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 20D Moving Averages
NDFI = " " 50D MAs
NDOH = " " 100D MAs
NDTH = " " 200D MAs
I noticed NDTW was at 1 for the first time since Covid bottom, where it only spent a week bouncing a round down there; but this is closer to the 2008 crash. So I examined that.
When NDTW went under 5% in 2008 for the first time, the index was still 30% from the bottom, a month later. Then it chopped around for 2 months until double bottom. Interesting to note the market capitulated at the beginning of October in 2008.
It seems the bottom will be a long bumpy road, with opportunities both ways. Be nimble and stay frosty!
Consider DXY-weighted indexes for true valueThe Forex markets have been playing games with the U.S. Indexes; but weighted by DXY, the markets actually look much stronger, especially on the latest leg down. Possible IHS if it reverses soon.
The signal up top is the difference between DXY weighted and USD weighted. If you scroll out you'll notice there's never been this much discrepancy between the two.
Alternative counts on NQ I think we may have a bigger correction before reaching its top. I think we would have its top near midterm election.
NQ is testing the bottom of the bear flagWatch this bear flag to break and we see 11165-35 very quick.
Main support is at 11234, breaking that will flush quick
I have the price down to even 11050-60 level.
Very important to hold here.
My thinking is we sell off into the open and move up after Powell speech tomorrow am
Today's action off the low could be another trap for the perma bulls to call it the low...
Will be waking up early tomorrow to watch the market and see where I add to my SPXL and some Oct calls long position I started today
P.S. DO NOT GO LONG Heavy! This can crash and the crashes come from the oversold conditions! Size properly and have stops or more powder to add
Long NQRespecting the support in green, possibility of rebound up to 13500$. Depending on closing over the POC of the VP you see in the chart.
NQ is at maj support terretoryHere are the support levels to watch:
- 11167-75 (My target for a while)
- 11058.50
- 10656.50
Maj Resistance is at 12260, above and it will squeeze back to 14k imo
But the pressure is still down, Oct should bring 10k zone imo.
My plan for tomorrow is buy am lows
Have a good night
SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur.
This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support.
Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
QQQ - Brief updateRecently, QQQ reached our price target of 290 USD. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the asset. We continue to be bearish due to the persistence of fundamental and technical factors. Indeed, we think the U.S. stock market will continue lower. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for QQQ at 280 USD. Our price target for the Nasdaq 100 index is 11 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The bearish crossover occurred as we predicted, confirming our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 11820
BOT 10905
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
