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Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 4.06% , down from 4.19% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 78th percentile, while with VXN we are on 39th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 3.43% In case of bearish - 3.48% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 23.6% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 12223 BOT: 11239 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 11531 77% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 11931 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 40% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BEARISH trend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
NQ has the same as ES setupCurrently at the support zone, a long can be taken with a tight stop Needs to test the bull trendline imo before any significant bounce. For now its quite far way to test though. NQ should be leading in big 4, so must watch on the decline we get next week. Main resistance is the previous high into the resistance box, it has not to even get tested for lower lows to be seen. If tested and taken, all the NQ downside targets like 8.5-9k will off the table, at least for the short term. Must continue lower and test the first box of the support, if the bounce will be short lived and weak, expect more weakness into the main support zone and the uptrend channel test
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
VIX setting up for a Santa Rally?I've spent a lot of time drawing on the VIX chart today since we are coming up on an area that defines 3 separate ascending wedge patterns with one starting before the 2020 run that we have tapped twice without making a lower low. And although that lower trendline is still quite a way down, currently at 16.57, it's not a far stretch if retail sales come out strong, JP keeps quiet, and there are plans for a Santa rally lurking behind the scenes. With that being said, we have just broken the next oldest pattern, and the youngest one not much farther down at 19.66 and the .86 fib of the 2020 run up is smack in the middle at 20.13 so for tomorrow, I have potential reversal area from 20.44 to 20.13 with 20.13 to 19.71 becoming bearish down to below 19. My argument for the upside is a bit more hocus pocus as I had to put on a pitchfork to even feel good about it, but we made the inside candle Friday, which, big deal, it was a half day, but following that with an outside candle on a retail rich week wouldn't shock me at all. So I'm gonna throw my dart. If we gap up, we hit around 21.30 and come back down to close between 19.89 and 20.13 in which case the case for breaking down past 19.66 becomes more likely. SANTA RALLY!!! But, if we gap down into that bounce zone and don't break the 20.13, then we still close high and and head back to Wednesdays high. I like this case more if we bounce off the Daily low and just double bottom. BUT, I'm still leaning to a high of 22.30 on the WEEK, just because I feel like the case is better stated for a downside overall. We just have much more reason to pull back down with the biggest reason being that we haven't retested that 2020 pattern for over a year. Historically I don't see any rhyme or reason except that VIX does tend to rise during December if only for a day, and even that isn't well structured. Sooo... who the knows then the VIX is gonna VIX. What we do know is that we have spent so much time in what used to be high volatilely territory that we've started to make a home here and that contradicts what the VIX is designed to do. We've held above averages, between $10-20, for more days and gone higher than we did in the '08 housing crisis, and all while our economy is too strong for its own good. So we've either become fairly melodramatic, OR we're setting up residence. If the latter is true then we can just throw out all historical data that predates circa 2018 and start anew. I personally want to see what happens if we break down below 16.50. Do we stabilize and go back to a boring trend style value market? Or does everyone freak out and rabidly buy everything in sight. All we can do is wait, and look to the right.
TVC:VIX
by goofoffgoose
Stocks can go higher, but how much higher?I will start by sharing a Twitter poll, which shows the sentiment we are seeing now. Most think we are going lower. Therefore, the market could go higher in the short term. twitter.com I believe our target is the critical breakdown level that was never retested on the chart above. The maximum upside is the R3 Monthly Pivot + Yearly Pivot, which will most likely reject the price. Recession or no recession, the market has room to the upside for reasons different from what most people think. Won't get into these things here, as I want to keep this idea simply about the key targets I have for stocks. For Nasdaq, it is hard to tell how high we will go as there is more than one target. For the S&P500 and the Russell below, the targets are very clear. However, for QQQ - NDX - NQ, more than one gap must be filled. Based on the above, I expect the market to top about 6% higher from here, and potentially as much as 10% for the Nasdaq 100.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BitcoinMacro
nasdaq 11-21 ~ good afternoon, here's what the nasdaq looks like from a bullish perspective. --- local dip to backtest local downtrend, in confluence with the local 50~88% retrace of the big pop from the other day. i'm labeling this dip as the second 1-2 within what looks to me like a bullish nest . --- if i'm right about the nest, we will see tech take off big time over the next few weeks, bigger than any of us are currently expecting. --- not financial advice, take my art with a grain of salt.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by notoriousbids
SPY Cycle Patterns For Thanksgiving Week - Sideways Melt-UpHere you go. This week I expect the markets to melt upward with a couple of bottom/momentum bottom patterns as well as holiday trading liquidity. This week may see some volatile price swings, but overall I believe the US markets will continue to melt upward. As we near the end of the year, I expect some traders to try to pull out of positions (anchoring in tax losses) and repositioning early in 2023. Enjoy your holidays with family/friends. Follow my research if you are looking for more detailed analysis of the US/Global markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
QQQ - Potential top for the rally + new price targetsOver the past few days, we hinted at several warning signs on Nasdaq's continuous futures chart. Since the index broke above 11 734$, it has trended mostly sideways with declining volume at elevated prices. In our opinion, this continues to hint at the unsustainability of the rally, and therefore we would like to set new price targets for QQQ. Our new short-term price target is 280$, and our new medium-term price target is 270$. The price target for NQ1! stays the same, at 10 000$. Our views are based on fundamental and technical factors detailed in the current and previous articles. *to invalidate our thesis about the potential top, we would like to see QQQ break above Resistance 1* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) and several technical developments indicated by colorful arrows. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish. Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) on the daily chart. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic and RSI point to the upside. The same applies to MACD, which stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
16
Short-term bull and bear targets for NQI've overlaid a few fib channels with Visible Range Volume Profile and Linear Regression indicators. Bottom indicator is fast and slow RSI stacked. Fast and slow RSI are both in overbought territory. So there should be a powerful move coming, either extension or reversal. It should complete by next week, perhaps very early. Bear Scenario: We're at the High Value Area(VAH) on volume profile, which is typically where scalpers take profit on longs and sell short. Below, there should be a lot of support in the 11.2k-11.4k range, as there's lots of confluence of: POCs, a bull channel, Linear Regression Lines(LRLs) in pink and the Regression Curve(RC) in yellow. Bull Scenario: If price stays above and makes support on the VAH, it starts a new bull trend. On the macro bear fib channel we've seen resistance at the .382(yellow) and it crosses the 2.618 local bull fib channel around the 12.1-12.2k area. Also 3rd Standard Deviation from current bull trend median/LRL. So that area should show some resistance and be a good scalp target. Perhaps a pullback there, then another leg up to the ultimate macro bear TL around 12.5k. It's the zero(grey) on the macro bear fib channel.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Nicklaus68
SPX all eyes on my 4010.50 on closing level!We have touched the first target in am and sold off hard below maj resistance level - 4010.50SPX Closing below will be very bearish. Whatever the news triggered, was expecting those to come at any time. Those in satanic club are pushing for the big war and it wont be bullish!!! We should see lower lows in Dec, Nov should close lower and Dec will close higher then Nov. Monthly lowest close will be in Jan and intraday low Mar/Apr The maj flow from Europe should come next year and it will propel the markets up, hard! So the next year buy should be a great long opportunity! There is a huge liquidity crisis and FED's reduction started to hit the books today. First low should come on Nov 17th and then bounce. Lower into EOM is what I see
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9
Nasdaq 100 - Signs of exhaustionSince the latest CPI print NQ1! rose approximately 9%, with most of the move-up being manifested right after the release. The move was accompanied by high volume; however, on Friday and Monday, the volume declined substantially. This continuous decline in volume hints at exhaustion and potential reversal. Therefore, we remain very cautious. To support our thesis, we would like to see a further slump in volume and the price going up. Then, we would like to see this followed by a spike in volume and the start of selling pressure. Contrarily, to invalidate our bearish thesis, we would like to see the price hold above 11 734$. Additionally, we would like to see the pick-up in volume accompanying a move higher. On the endnote, we still believe this is only another bear market rally, and because of that, we stay bearish beyond the short term and stick to our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 Since the latest CPI print, each session after the print manifested a declining volume from open to close. Yellow arrows indicate these developments on the chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish as well. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish, although the trend remains weak. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic point to the upside. MACD tries to reverse to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is less bearish than the last week. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
18
NQ riding the trendline, it will loose it at some pointThat trendline (black) is what Im watching for the NQ to get a confirmation of a breakdown, without it it can extend higher. Needs to break the line, close 1h under 11735 and re-test the broken trendline to confirm the top. As stated before, Im going to reduce my protective longs by 50%, if we gap up tomorrow, already started here. BTW one important thing is that NDX topped at the crossing of some very important trendlines, it was a trendline confluence today:)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) May End 3 Swing Rally SoonShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave A ended at 11734 and pullback in wave B ended at 10636. Wave C higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the Index turns lower again. Up from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 11231.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 10808. Index then rallies again in wave ((iii)) towards 11876.75. Wave ((iv)) is now in progress to correct cycle from 11.10.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Internal subdivision of wave ((iv)) takes the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 11702 and rally in wave (b) ended at 11898.50. Expect wave (c) to end soon which also completes wave ((iv)). Afterwards, as far as pivot at 10636.55 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher 1 more leg. Potential target is a 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 10.13.2022 low which comes at 11870 – 12632 area.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1