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NQ going into the CPI releaseHere is a quick update for those who follow my work and are not on our new site yet. It's a critical turning point here, going into the CPI report, so I want to share my thinking, and hopefully, you won't get trapped regardless of tomorrow's am outcome. I'm doing a more detailed analysis, but I will post a short version here. First of all, I pointed out last week that the 11th should mark the important high. Well, we got it! Now, it doesn't have to be a daily high, but the daily closing high! So tomorrow can be an intra-day high with am spike. I still think we could get a sort of OCT 13th CPI release action, but in another way - Gap and Dump! If CPI will come in-line or a bit higher, let's say 6.6-6.7%, it can produce a knee-jerk reaction and sell from there. There is a good fib confluence at 11600NQ for that move. Our main target got hit today, and I warned yesterday, that it should see a higher number; it did! The price has closed right at the resistance, so it satisfied the whole move up right there, in case it is just going to dump from the open Support and resistances are on the chart. I will also be doing SPX update and will post it at the end of the week here. This chart should be enough for those looking for a good analysis out there without any commitment. So don't be surprised if you see a big spike up, DO NOT chase it! If it happens, I will use that opportunity to add to my short position
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
8
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure. Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility. Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023: Netflix - January 17th Alphabet - January 31st Meta Platforms - February 1st Apple - February 2nd Amazon - February 2nd Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradersweekly
32
NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 3.83% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 81th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 3.24% movement Bearish: 3.3% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 11574 BOT: 10680 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 36.46% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high 66.3% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -26.67% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
The bear market has not endedLast year, NQ1! dropped approximately 34%, entering a bear market territory. In 2023, we hardly expect any significant improvement in the stock market due to the persistence of bearish fundamental factors, including high inflation, the prospect of more interest rate hikes, and a global slowdown. We expect these factors to stay in place throughout the year and weigh heavily on the index. Furthermore, we expect them to lead the U.S. economy deeper into a recession. With that said, we anticipate the bear market to progress from the second stage into the third stage in 2023. We will seek confirmation of our assessment in the upcoming earnings season and look for corporate underperformance and outlook downgrades. Additionally, we will look for a jump in corporate bankruptcies and a pick-up in unemployment. In accordance with our outlook, we maintain a bearish stance on the index and keep our price target of $10 000 for NQ1 (although we think the index has a high chance of going far below that). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and the declining channel we showed a few months ago. Currently, NQ1! trades near its upper bound. If it manages to break above it, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to do so will be bearish and hint at exhaustion. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of NQ1! and simple support/resistance levels. In addition to that, two moving averages are present, acting as additional resistance levels; in case of an upward correction, we will pay close attention to these SMAs and their ability to halt the price rise. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
113
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 Currently the IV for Nasdaq is at 7.66%, down from 7.8% last month. From the volatility current percentile we are located on 93th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement: Bullish : 6.55% Bearish : 8.58% With this in mind we have currently 80.2% that the market is going to stay within the next channel TOP Limit: 11987 BOT Limit: 10250 If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a : 37.5% to hit the previous monthly high 64.4% to hit the previous monthly low Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100) Weekly Timeframe : -66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH Monthly Timeframe : -40% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
2
NQ updateI was blocked for a week for simply mentioning my site I have it under my TradingView profile, so sorry for those who follow me here. Here is a quick update of NQ and I will post ES later. We should have this move down into the channel tomorrow. One thing to note is that 29th (today) was a window for the low, so if tomorrow we see a good pullback, it will be a buy-able one I will be posting less here as I have other commitments and really dont like being blocked for something I pay for.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
10
Global Markets Are Setting Up A MAJOR BOTTOM For 2023+US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom at this point. We've witnessed the largest unwinding of global excesses since the DOT COM bubble and, before that, the 1929 market peak. Use this symbol to experiment with market trends/setups: (TSLA + ARKK + ARKW + ARKQ + GME ) / 5 In my opinion, the deep selling is nearly over. This chart shows the custom symbol is very close to the center level on the historical Pitchfork and very close to a 1.0 (100%) Fibonacci extension from 2016 to 2019. I suspect the unwinding of the global markets is very close to a BOTTOM right now. 2023 could be very explosive, considering the extreme downside pressure we've seen over the past 15+ months. Think about this for a few minutes... _This chart shows price is currently AT or BELOW 2016~2018 center Std Dev levels. It may move a bit lower before actually finding a bottom. _This price level represents a pre-2019 earnings/revenue expectation (ignoring the past four years of progress). _The US Fed has already disrupted inflation trends and will likely shift towards more moderate policies in H1:2023. _This was not an excess bubble as much as it was a speculative bubble during the COVID supply disruption. Now, we shift back to more normal Revenue/Growth expectations. The US/Global markets are actively seeking a bottom RIGHT NOW. The reversion/reflation trade (bullish) could be very powerful. ---- ------------------------------------------------ Precious Metals will continue to appreciate - just like what happened in 2002~2005+. We are in the early stages of a reflation cycle (post COVID speculative bubble). The bubble has burst. Prices have deflated. A reflation rally is very likely unless some global crisis event disrupts the global economy. Gold and Silver will likely rally 35% to 55% higher over the next 2+ years (possibly higher). This is just like 2002~2005 all over again. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I believe it is time to start initiating "TOKEN" positions in deeply undervalued Technology, Energy, Consumer Staples, Healthcare, and other "relation" sectors. Follow my research.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by BradMatheny
2
Elliott Wave Forecasts rally in Nasdaq (NQ) to fail for Further Short term, Elliott wave view in Nasdaq (NQ) suggests that the decline from 8.16.2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.16.2022 high, wave (1) ended at 10890.75 and rally in wave (2) ended at 12339. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as an expanded Flat structure where wave A ended at 11729.75 and pullback in wave B ended at 10484.75. Final leg wave C ended at 12337.49 which completed wave (2). Index then resumes lower from there in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 11847 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 12069.50. Index resumes lower in wave ((iii)) towards 11275, wave ((iv)) ended at 11411, and final leg lower wave ((v)) ended at 11043.50. This completed wave 1 in higher degree. Wave 2 corrective rally ended at 11389.75 with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Up from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 11263.75 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 11181. Final leg higher wave ((c)) ended at 11389.75 which completed wave 2. The Index resumes lower in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another impulse. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 10870.50. As far as rally fails below wave 2 at 11389.75 and more importantly below wave (2) high at 12337.49, expect the Index to extend lower.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.87%, DOWN from 4.12% from last week With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 82th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 3.25% movement Bearish: 3.5% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 11795 BOT: 10862 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 12339 65% probability we are going to touch previous low 11280 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates -93% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates -93% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
New SPY Cycle Patterns Headed Into Christmas 2022Pay attention to the very real possibility that the current GAP will be filled early this week as price attempts to find a base/bottom after last week's selling. I expect moderate volatility and a change of trend as we move closer to Christmas. Initially, we'll see some moderate downward price pressure, then we'll see a shift upward near the end of this week. 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower Remember, stay protected and stay safe as volatility may be excessive over the next few weeks. 2023 looks very interesting. Follow my research to learn more.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
NQ with Head and Shoulders Pattern Identified on the 4H CME_MINI:NQ1! A Head and Shoulders pattern was identified on the 4H timeframe. This pattern was identified in confluence with a bear flag pattern on the 1H timeframe. Price then broke just below the flag. I believe that NQ will see more downside. After I zoomed out further, I noticed that we spiked from a demand zone November 10, 2022. Perhaps NQ will retrace back to where it spiked from on November 10, 2022. A screenshot is provided below for your review. After I zoomed out further, I noticed that we spiked from a demand zone November 10, 2022. Perhaps NQ will retrace back to where it spiked from on November 10, 2022. A screenshot is provided below for a quick reference. *This is not financial advice. If you like my trading idea follow or search "MrALtrades00" on the TradingView platform for more ideas. MrALtrades00
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by MrALtrades00
1