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Advanced TA (Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Others) Lead TrendsThis is a complex chart showing the SPY in a broad spectrum of Advanced Technical Analysis. What you need to understand is this rally has stalled after a "scouting party" attempt to identify support above the long-term CYAN price channel (which also acted as support in early 2021 on the way down). Failure to hold this support level will prompt a very big downside price trend that may retest the 2015-16 lows. Everyone is talking about a Fed Pivot - but I don't see that happening. I see a broad financial crisis event unfolding over the next 4+ years where asset values contract (homes, stocks, and others) in a global unwinding process. China/Asia are particularly at risk because they may not see any real recovery from their excess speculation phase until after 2027+. The US markets may recover 2~3 years before foreign markets as the US has somewhat prepared for another crisis event after 2007-10 - but we'll see. Failure at this point would indicate a potential for a new Wave 3 (downward) that could be rather large. Learn to protect your assets as you identify opportunities. This is not the time to go ALL IN on any big trend. This warning is CONDITIONAL. The SPY would have to move lower and break $363 to establish a new downward price trend. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
One Chart SUMS it All Up - EuroDollar : SPYLower, far lower lows are ahead. SPY Gaps: 400.76 338.66 285.67 235.77 Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024. The DX will return to 125. Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense. _____________________________________________________________ Keep it simple, the Indices will Collapse. _____________________________________________________________ One final blow-off is due, IF key Support holds for the Equity Complex, fail and this retracement ran Exactly to the .677 TGT we've had since June 17th. Then few believed the Summer rally would be able to achieve these levels, most were looking for far lower. They were simply early and off for time. Time is now approaching for the next move lower, hopefully, there will be a thrust conclusion to 2/5 Lower. If it holds symmetry - we can see higher highs prior to a complete collapse. This remains a very large Bear Market regardless of Price.
G
by HK_L61
4
NQ main support for tomorrow 13273 and 13210Im looking for a good size gap down tomorrow to mark the top, otherwise we can still press higher . The low should come either on the 22 or 26th. I personally like second date as it would be a perfect long setup going into the long weekend bull trap. Ideally next high (if we topped) is a lower high. Also will be looking at turning week, if we close lower then next one, then the low might come on the week 29th and high before Sep OPEX. Since cycles are inverted a lot (usually the case in Aug), I have no clear picture of the maj top being in place or when it comes. I got 2 dates, early Sep or Sep OPEX week. Im short going into the next week. Will start looking at swing short position only after we break 13115
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
7
SPY Dancing On The Edge Of A CliffThe US markets are experiencing a unique capital shift at the moment. Foreign capital is pouring into the US equity markets and driving the US Dollar higher. When this trend shifts - look out below. I'm sending this warning to all traders/investors right now. Even though my research suggests we may see an extended rally phase lasting many years for the US markets - any global crisis event (think China/Asia/Russia) could blow a hole in the support we are seeing right now. In other words, stay cautious, use stops, play the trend as very fragile and possibly strengthening over time. My research focused on broad cycle patterns and suggests a big cycle event will take place in the second half of 2022. After that, the next big cycle event is more than 4+ years away. That means we have quite a bit of time to trend, or move into a disruptive phase, over the next 4+ years. Pay attention.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
$AAPL $AAPL - Who doesn't love a good 'Juicy' $APPL?! We at clear resistance zone, I'd ideally like a PB. Key Tip: You can't actually learn by those Instagram profiles full of 'strategies'. The only way of learning how to trade would be getting hands on experience by validated traders with track record. There're various stages in learning it's like mountain you learn the technicals, fundamentals and then you got the psychology aspects which a lot of manipulations in general happens regarding in the market and outside of the market, which very few understand... This industry is full of 'social media gurus' but make sure you tread carefully. Here's a great statistic for you: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years. All the best, TJ
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Trade_Journal
ES - 1 Hour / Pivotal Timeframe - BONDS DivergingWE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement. The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA. Bullish? Definetely not. That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline. For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity. _________________________________________________________________________ After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking. Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows. Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts. FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme Greed is in trade. Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!" While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly. Bond Auctions - 379 Failures. _________________________________________________________________________ Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly. Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term cross-current. It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range? That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes. A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru this level. Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030 to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th. _________________________________________________________________________ Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE. To Distro more Junk & Co. _________________________________________________________________________ Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they are calling Bullsh_t. Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent. HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners. Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen serve it up. _________________________________________________________________________ RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot. Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care. September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year. Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss. _________________________________________________________________________ In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm. Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again and the ending... the song remains the same. _________________________________________________________________________ Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade. NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical has arrived. The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control on the Curve. TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings going to Snap. A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile. Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation on schedule. _________________________________________________________________________ RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
3
ES - 15 Minute / Micro RangeHousing continues to implode along with China's recent Urban Outfitters. 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) July 1.63 million 1.70 million 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) July 1.52 million 1.56 million Interesting China avoided its Ecuminiopolis Economy... it's worse, of course. The Cerveza Sickness compounds across all regions. The Hot Topic is China leaving behind "Zero Bat Soup"... Unlikely, why abandoned control... yeah, naw, the CCP will never do that. ___________________________________________________________________ Hedge Funds have decided the Doom Loop is about to re-engage - placing very heavy wagers on a serious move lower. Currently, Micro Support for the ES is @ 4267.75. For NQ - 13562.25 ___________________________________________________________________ I am watching 4 instruments closely. 1. 2YY - 2 Year Futures 3.255 2. Crude Oil Range 77 - 95 (OXY Carbon Capture Squidview interesting, heavy bets there.) 3. DX - 107+ is going to be a large issue for the Bulls. 4. Cash VIX Wednesday after FOMC playbook full of Toxic Vapors. ___________________________________________________________________ Apple / Tesla / Microsoft / Amazon / NVidia and assorted Fang Frauds continue to grind the Sellers - asymptomatic ALGO Driven eat sh_t Sellers grinder. It remains a DIp Buyers Market, for now... let the Degens burn themselves out, it is not time just yet, we're getting there, but the horny little devils need another spunk junk run. ___________________________________________________________________ 4303 is the important close, the Bulls need this, without it... it's winding back down for a piece. Patience is always the play, especially during Summer. Time is winding down for TIME, August 22nd to September will tell us a great deal. Fiscal Spending has been the latest Taxpayer Grift, Timme fo' Stimmy simply received a bigger bill. Delusions abound.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
2
NQ quick night updateI have sent a bigger update to those who are on my email list with an updated SPX chart, which I will post tomorrow after I see reaction of my main target. NQ update for tomorrow: - NQ Maj support is at 13510, break it below and retested will be a perfect short for a trip down to 13130-200, depending on the time of landing. - NQ I have also a good fib confluence at 13866-98 and 930+- zone for a possible extension higher. If we hold 510-30, then I would be long for that final move up with a tight stop around 490 or so. Enjoy!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
1
Fahrvergnügen - The Traders VehicleTrading pleasure abounds as the FED's non-sense continues unabated. A thrill ride out of Bear Market Territory for ES 3849.50, the NQ was the laggard at 13414. 13392 the larger Pivot for the NQ Futures, a hidden one, but the DOM suits it rather well. "Exiting the Bear Market" is the new mantra, narrative, and fresh bullhorn as we see "Inflation - Come Off" - Bloomberg 24/7 now. A chortle of whores and pimps, typical and to be expected as the Summer Solstice trade grinds on trapping goblins everywhere on the Tape. Ignore the shortages of refined energy products, food, and the things we need to conduct our lives. No, lookie over here easily distracted, memory short degens. ____________________________________________________________________ The FED took off $14B week over week - at this rate, the FED is never going to hit its "Target" @ $90Billion in QT beginning in September. Uber Doves - Khardasian, WIlly, and Bob Evans chicken all decided to don push-up bras and assure us they mean business... Bullard blew an Esmerelda, again. Fed Fund Futures have more intray-week volatility than the VIXen. _____________________________________________________________________ VX Complex - utterly sh_t mixed... but... and there is a very large butt. Vol of Vol is showing signs the Big Lick is developing for a very large return of Volatility. Count on it, plan for it... here is why. The next decline will have a Scope, Scale, and Velocity - unlike the January decline. It will be extremely destructive in very short order for Price. August 22nd to September 4th appears to be in line with expectations. VX Calls carry a massive Prem... obvious expectations. Yes, ahead of selections for Mid-Term grifters. ______________________________________________________________________ The FED is now indicating a "Panic Cycle" (of course it's not) it's simply when they are now pandering to January as the "oops, we broke sh_t" They made it very clear in the FSR that they wanted a 50% haircut... they be serious. Central Bankers Globally are getting a Tate-sized Master Class of MLM from the EuroDollar Primaries... the DX shortage will be extreme in the extreme. ______________________________________________________________________ When Brown Brothers Harriman is looking for a DX collapse... look the other way. _______________________________________________________________________ EuroDollar has one more Chart Print to the Next Plunge. Crash Landings... are not survivable. Sellers of DEC 2022 and MAR 2023 on ES NQ MYM RTY. Lots and Lots of spicy Poots to round out the Meme and FANG fade. When Turbines SIEZE.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
9
QQQ - What comes after the FEDYesterday, the FED raised interest rates by 75bps. Yet, despite the sound logic, the market ripped up an astounding 4% leaving many analysts perplexed. Before that, we said the rate hike would be bearish and negatively affect the economy. Additionally, we noted that tighter monetary policies combined with a slowing economy would further weaken the stock market. After the FED decision, we still stick to this narrative. Recapitulation of moves on the day of previous rate hikes: 16th March 2022 = +4.31% 4th May 2022 = +3.44% 15th June 2022 = + 3.63% *values are approximate Meanwhile, despite the enormous magnitude of moves up, the general trend remained to the downside. As a result, we would like to set a new price target for QQQ at 300 USD. Accordingly, we would like to push our invalidation level for the bearish bias 1.2% above the yesterday's close price. Illustration 1.01 The setup we introduced to our audience recently. Yesterday, the index rose approximately 4% from the immediate support/resistance level. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD and Stochastic are bullish. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- are bullish. ADX contains a relatively low value, indicating a weak or no trend. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Interestingly, after the FED decision, QQQ stopped its price rise 0.01 USD below the invalidation zone (for the bearish bias). Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are bullish. MACD performed a bullish crossover but stayed in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame sends mixed signals. Illustration 1.03 The picture above shows the Nasdaq continuous futures and updated support and resistance levels for the index. Illustration 1.04 Illustration 1.04 shows several technical developments on the daily chart of NQ1!. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
32