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NQ - 15 Minute ALGO Prop / Globex Thru TuesdayAnother O/N Stick Save and Prop for the TECH - Surprise again. Cutting jobs outright a la' MSFT, or our new favorite - "we're slowing Hiring Velocity" Or this GEM - "Hiring Rate of Change will slow" It's as though Uber Karen has stolen the Bullhorn and run off to the nearest Comedy Clown Show. Netflix is down 68% YTD, and password sharing and outright cancellations will have skied again. We'll see if they Pull a Tesla and begin reporting "Streams Delivered"... ______________________________________________________________ The Financial Media is searching for its 11th bottom, citing a "Pendulum overestimating the Gloom..." Patience, there is more to this EPS season silliness dead ahead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
7
NQ - 15 min / 11767 LIS - Upper Boundary 12262 - GLOBEX OPENRoughly a 500 Handle Range has developed for NQ. The 711s have seen the largest Call Option activities. but it remains a complete lock on IV, while the VIX is seeing its Summer Squeeze lower. Cross out VX and yet those Puts on the SPY continue to hold up well at elevated Price levels. Look over the 400 / 380 / 360 / 340 for AUG SPE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB and you'll clearly see Wall Streets expectations for Price out the Curve, there are some very large adjustments for Price on TIME. This implies - it is a time for extreme patientce. MSFT GOOGa GOOGl AAPL NVDA AMZN META TSLA - The MANGs have all been in relative Distro on balance while grinding higher... Apple cam off the 132s to 150 at present. Can it fill the Gap at 155? Appears it can. The Nasdaq 100 was down for the week, not a good look. In fact, it all was down for the Week. The Trend Lower is intact - BUT - there is room overhead within the Downtrend. How kinky can Wally behave? We already know. Short term, the 15 minute has some tailwinds on MBS providing a mild increase in Oil Supplies to current US Consumption... an accident? No, it meets the daily @ 70% of the present "reported" consumption. A win, as the Financial Media, will derive some tout mileage from it. Nancy found it prudent to load up on NVDA Calls front running her push on the Hill to shive the Semi Bill through during the Summer Doldrums. She's managed to accumulate an outsized position @ $8 Million. The rest of the handlers are struggling to hide Fiscal irresponsibilities behind the scenes while talking tough - "We're not spending another dime as America is broke." And yet negotiations on a $2 Trillion package remain underway carving out a lesser amount, close enough for comfort. Biden’s Build Back Better agenda focuses on a few healthcare items, incentives to rein in climate change, and raising taxes on the wealthy. An end to talks that Biden and his senior advisers led last year with Manchin and other Democratic holdouts on the full $2+ trillion agenda for the Green Beans. More spending as the Inflation / DisInflation tug o' war is underway won't give way until the August / September timeframes. The Bond Markets will embrace it by skying yields again. This provides cover for a limited amount of time. A very limited amount of time. Time is not on the Rigger's side. A nasty whacking of the VIX is in trade, and frankly... the Indies are lagging by a bunch, so they have some catching up to do ahead of Tuesday's 4 PM Settlement. We'll see if 24.30 now holds for the M1 VX Futures. The prior range of 25.80 to 29.30 was crushed, VXN remains elevated to a higher degree, still well off its highs. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Short Term, the next 10 trading days, we'll see how they range this - there should be a TOSS (Throw Over Short Squeeze) into Mega Cap EPS. 11767 to highs unfortunately will expand on either side... patience on this event as the Risks need to reveal themselves first. I have moved out to trading December NQ during RTH on the SELL, SEP as well, with minimal BUYs. Bonds remain on Dunk Tank Watch, it will require the Market to call the FED the FED again, it's a few weeks away. Patience. The Markets are consolidating a Downtrend Sell, Price has much further to Fall. Breaking down in the next 10 days, it amplifies the SELL.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ - 15 Minute / 75 Sqeaks, Waller & Bullard"We're sticking to 75 Bips.... we swear." The Bullhonrs @ our destructive Federal Reserve is attempting to calm the Short End of the Curve for Bonds. Bonds that continue to fail at every auction, every one, epic fail after an epic fail. _____________________________________________________________________________________ The Global Economy is in ruins, no amount of short-term Discount Rate jiggering will ever serve to correct the malaise the FED created. Cost of Sales remains a loser to Inflation - it exceeds Pricing Power. The Consumer is under extreme duress, passing along further increases will be met with a decline in Sales Volume, as Net Incomes collapse 30-40% - Profit... they indeed implode. This is the Factual state of affairs within all Corporations. Expenses are vastly outpacing Net Incomes. Presently, on average - Corporations are losing at a rate of decline of 163% as Costs of goods sold runs away as Pricing Power contracts markedly. Consumers resist after substitution effects give way. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Delta, by example, Net income slid ~50%, and yet they report a beat... rather a beating. Good look? Clearly not. More Layoffs. This is the overwhelming Trend across all Sectors... it is unequivocal. ________________________________________________________________________________________ TECH is not immune to the phenomena, it is not special. By way of Fact, it is far more susceptible to faster and further Ratio reductions - by a very large reduction. With EPS ahead - Big Tech can likely see another attempt at a large Throw Over Short Squeeze (TOSS) only to crash back to lower lows, significantly lower into September thru October. Apple's Gap @ 155 can fill, and Tesla can trade over its recent high although Eron is Burning down the House. This week's close is important, Buying the Dip is being faded in the extreme. ________________________________________________________________________________________ The Q;s are outperforming the Spoos for July, the rotation is being defended... for now. Tech gender confusion? AOC on the Block? Nah, just more identifying with distraction, delay and derailment. I see sub 10K NQ into Fall without breaking a sweat. Using DEC Futures for Sells regardless of where Junk.Co heads ST, it's going far lower. Bring on the Squeeze Wally, we're looking forward to it. The Economy... it's terminal, we'll see if Sentiment agrees and dips in below 50 or does the Chef at the BLS buys some time while the souffle rises only to collapse in on itself.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
Nasdaq 100 index - NQ1! shows signs of weaknessDespite the recent bounce in the price of NQ1! we remain bearish; indeed, we think the current price is attractive for the (re)entry of a short position. That is mainly due to the fact that fundamental factors which weigh on the U.S. economy did not change. Therefore, we still maintain our price target of 11 000 USD for the Nasdaq index. Illustration 1.01 The Nasdaq's retracement toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates that the index is undergoing a strong correction. However, the price drop below the upper bound of the channel adds to the bearish odds; additionally, it invalidates the bullish breakout that took place recently. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is showing weakness; currently, it reverses to the downside, which is bearish. MACD is bullish. Stochastic is flattening. DM+ and DM- are neutral. The ADX is very low. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for the Nasdaq 100 index. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
12
NQ - Daily / EPS Squeeze on Low Volumes / Trap Door Opens AgainWall Street and its beloved twists and turns are ever-present during the Summer Months. Apres June 21st, an environment of predatory and opportunistic Counter-Trends always seem to manifest into Labor Day, or so it went. I believe you may or can toss that out the window in the near future - prior to the FOMC spike hike July 27th. The Fed is poised to deliver another bigger-than-usual rate hike at its next meeting on July 27th. It desires to "tame inflation" now running at more than three times its 2% goal, with fears growing that the economy will tip into recession as a result. The Upper Decker kicker -Daly suggests - "The labor market is strong enough to take more rate increases." ______________________________________________________________________________ Is it? No, hell no. Let's prod into this steaming Pile of fecality. P.1 - "Recession" Every School of Economic Thought, every single one defines a Depression as 3 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. These axioms for every school of thought were defined when the United States was a Production-based Economy. Let's simply review the St Louis Fed by the Numbers: fred.stlouisfed.org GDP Peaked due to Stimulus - both Fiscal and Monetary In Q1 2021, it took 2 quarters for the Hangover to arrive. 4 Consecutive Quarters of declining GDP. Textbook Depression - Factually by the FED's own numbers. The Bump in Q1? The one the FInancial Media touted so highly... Complete and total Fraud - a cruel joke the Investing Public swallowed after having been told very early on - "It's all priced into the Markets." Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. 5 Quarters on Declining GDP with Number 6 On deck. ______________________________________________________________________________ P.2 The Strong Labor Market There has been an extreme number of Layoffs recently, largely ignored by the Investing Public. 3.6% Unemployment at a Labor Force Participation Rate of 61%. 372,000 "Jobs" Added. According to the Ministry of Labor and Statistics. Once again, numbers do not lie, liars do. 388,000 People left the Labor Force - Jobs Fell. Add in a seasonal Adjustment of .1% and we simply add 411,000. 799,000 People abandoned the Labor Force. Not a strong Jobs Number when the headlines are ignored and the Facts are accounted for in sum total. People DO NOT have an incentive to Participate. Ask yourself WHY. There will be another BLS adjustment in hindsight @ .2% or another 800,000 Jobs. There are 1.6 Million Jobs left for dead. Gone, Poof... Adios Jobs. Believe the Bullsh_t or do the Work required to determine the Facts. Conde Nast - No. of Employees Laid off: 90% - adios publishing, Vogue, Vanity Fair, et al. For All Tech - the Numbers are rather large, San Franciso is about to see the Unicorn haven status revoked entirely. Every Firm Mega, Large, Mid, Small is letting go of its Peeps. Adios, enjoy Van life in Slab City. ______________________________________________________________________________ What's the TRADE PLAN? Simple, fade this Junk Co Junk out through October, then again post Selections into February. We will peak this month on this fraudulent Counter-Trend off the SloMo into a very Mild FOMO. Participants will need to be dragged kicking and screaming back into this decidedly messed Trap n' Snap. The Economy is deteriorating at an outsized pace, it is a terminal decline. We'll see where this week's TOSS takes us, we're positioning into PUTS across the Curve and Loading Up on the VIX Contango to the Inversion. Counter-Trends in Depressions can have an all-or-nothing approach to them, why not, what's left to lose... Q2 will be extreme in the sheer show and tell of destruction. Prepare yourselves for the next very large move down. Good Luck and Be patient with entries.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
2
Tech Reversal In Play: Allow Price Action To PlayoutThe market complexion has changed greatly from "there is no chance of a recession" to "well, maybe there could be a recession" as the economic data continues to deteriorate. Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States increased to 1.375M in the week ending June 25 of 2022 from 1.324M in the previous week. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose by 4K to 235K in the week that ended July 2nd, compared to market expectations of 230K, suggesting labor market conditions could be moderating. But, I think it is just getting started as many companies are laying off and cancelling employment offers. These activities take time to get into the system and "The Counting Rule" is... they must be actively looking in-order to be counted. So, don't hold your breadth. And keep in mind the Fed will remain hiking rates, while the ECB will eventually need to jump on this wagon. Speaking of the ECB. The United States is acting as-if The Federal Reserve Raising Interest Rates solves everything. Government Debt in the United States increased to 30,499,619 Trillion in May from 30,374,155 Trillion in April of 2022. The US Debt to GDP increased to 137% from 128%. They act as-if there is nothing for the public to worry about; however, many issues have not begun to trickle into the US, as far as we're concerned. 🥶Winter is going to be a huge test for the US and so will the household debt crisis -- not yet discussed in media as companies are trying to figure out how to keep consumers spending (e.g. buy now; pay later). But, raising rates does not stop the government from spending, nor does it stop the government from issuing more debt. We also have other factors in play such as the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet, M2 Money Supply, and WH Executive Orders at play here. HOWEVER.... The point of this post is the "very tight" interconnection between the US and UK. Remember it is a global market and just like the global market crash of 1929 we are more connected today than ever before. 👉 The US and UK are at EXTREME levels of government debt and both facing economic collapse scenarios. 😳 If the UK goes down - don't think for a minute that the US cannot go along with it. You have seen my recent post about the US Liquidity Swaps, right? If not, scroll down the news feed and you'll see it. Nevertheless, through my external analysis of the markets (with annotated charts) there remains a very-strong conviction that the recent lows of the financial markets will be tested and broken. This also takes into account the Federal Reserve Balance Sheet and the fact the Government Debt continues to expand against the GDP. Downside targets for the SPX and NDX NDX = T1 9,538; T2 8,200 (current price is at 12,109.05) SPX T1 3,040; T2 = 2,750 (current price is at 3,902) I GET IT... Many will not be supportive of the above, nor have many been on my Public Posts within TradingView; however, the same people bashing never seem to return when the outcomes play out. I am not here to say, "see, I told you so" or anything of that nature - as I'm providing my thesis into all the posts I provide with thorough assessments into the global markets and not based on raw emotions. I really hope this post (and others) have been informative, helpful, or at least worthy enough for your review. I "value your time" and am humbled that you took the time to read, comment, etc. on any of my posts. Thank you again. Bill Davis - Technical Trader
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by bsdvs23
2
NQ - 15 Minute ALGO Drop / Globex Thru Tuesday - DisInflation QMaterials Flow must-see Prices fall in order to clear. There's just one larger issue. Weakening Manufacturing and weakening Demand. Consumer Demand was artificially propped due to the a number of misinformation(s). Allocations, Panic demand, Mis-Allocations - a complete and total Sh_t Mix. Ramping up production as Savings, Investment, and Incomes are within a steep decline, Risky Business. Slowing congestion in spot rates is endemic to misallocations. Surplus Stocks and Low Demand... will resolve in time. @ present, holding flows for higher prices isn't going to work. Prices clear on levels, regardless of the interventions. Why? Costs. Ultimately, manufacturers will reign in production, leading to greater shortages later this year and next. This basic concept applies to all goods and services. Short-term - misinformation. Long Term, Supply constraints due to reductions in Manu and CapEx. ____________________________________________________________ How the Media and Wall Street manage the narrative... simple, the peak inflation communique will limp along for a short period of time. The larger disruptions and declines in everything are ahead. For now, be on guard for one of two events short term in the July 6/8 timeframe. A near Waterfall decline OR a larger Retracemnet into an even greater decline. This week will be very important. Trade safe and prosperity in your trading.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61