US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
🔍 Identifying Key Levels
The chart highlights several key levels:
Previous Week High (PWH)
Previous Week Low (PWL)
Previous Month High (PMH)
Previous Day Low (PDL)
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Buy Side Liquidity (BSL)
📈 Current Price Action
The price has recently broken above the Previous Week High (PWH) and the Previous Month High (PMH). It has also taken out the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), indicating that significant buy orders have been filled, which may lead to a reversal or retracement .
🔻 Potential Short Scenario
Given that the price is currently in a premium zone after taking out the BSL, a retracement lower is likely. Key levels to watch for a potential short scenario include:
PDL (Previous Day Low): The price could retrace towards this level, which may act as support.
PWL (Previous Week Low): This level is also significant and could act as a target for the retracement.
FVG: The Fair Value Gap below the current price may attract the price to fill this gap, leading to a further move down.
📉 Long Scenario Considerations
For a long scenario, we need the price to react positively at key support levels. Confirmation for long positions can be found by observing the lower time frames (LTF) for:
Low Resistance SSL: Watching for lower resistance sell-side liquidity being taken in lower time frames can indicate a possible shift towards bullish momentum.
🔎 Lower Time Frame Confirmation
SSL (Sell Side Liquidity): In lower time frames, observing the price action around these SSL levels can provide clues for potential long entries. If the price takes out these SSL levels and reclaims them, it can indicate a buying opportunity targeting higher levels such as the previous highs or the FVG above.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary
Current Price at Premium Zone: After taking out BSL and PMH, a retracement is expected.
Key Levels Above Price: The price is currently above PWH and PMH, indicating it is in a premium zone.
Key Levels Below Price: PDL, PWL, and FVG are potential targets for a retracement.
FVG: This gap below the current price is an area of interest for a potential retracement.
By considering these key levels and market behaviors, traders can better prepare for potential scenarios, whether the market continues higher or retraces to lower levels.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NFP FrYday Crude OilMy ultimate target for this week is the BSL marked with a magnet.
The main internal Liquidity I am looking at is marked with arrows.
Which ones get taken first near or at NFP is very important for the intra day BIAS
And I will be watching this.
Mainly Tape reading today, I have no interest in Engaging in the market
NASDAQ Nothing to stop this uptrend. Next stop 21300.Time to update our Nasdaq (NDX) thesis from 2 weeks ago (June 20, see chart below), where we called for a pull-back and then a buy on a 20700 Target:
As you can see we got the short-term correction within the (dotted) Channel Up and the index resumed the long-term uptrend of the 8-month (blue) Channel Up. Supported by both the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect this uptrend to be extended in a similar way as the January 2024 post 4H MA200 correction rebound.
That sequence completed a +25.78% from the October 2023 bottom, before pulling back near the 4H MA200 again. As a result, we upgrade our Target to 21300, closer to the top of the long-term Channel Up. See also how symmetrical the 1D MACD fractals are between the 2 sequences. We should now be expecting a Bullish Cross, to confirm this Leg's continuation.
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NASDAQ Time for a Correction?NASDAQ Time for a Correction?
The recent events in the financial markets have highlighted growing uncertainty and the potential for a correction in the NASDAQ. A thorough analysis of both fundamental and sentimental factors provides valuable insights for investors looking to make informed decisions.
Technical Overview
This past week, NASDAQ failed to surpass its recent peak, marking a significant technical signal. There is a strong divergence appearing on technical analysis indicators such as RSI and MACD, suggesting a potential trend reversal.
Macroeconomic Events
The upcoming week is set to bring several key events that could significantly impact the markets:
Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Recent statements from Fed officials hint that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, potentially leading to further pressure on interest rate hikes.
Wednesday: The release of the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes. These reports could set the tone for the markets in the coming weeks, offering insights into future monetary policy directions.
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls data, eagerly awaited by the market. The results could influence short-term economic expectations and future Fed decisions.
Seasonality and Sentiment
We are entering a period of seasonal stagnation and potential correction, which is typical in a U.S. election year. Market seasonality often affects investor behavior, leading to greater caution and reduced activity.
COT Report and Market Sentiment
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that 47.12% of funds hold short positions on NASDAQ, suggesting a bearish outlook among major market players. Additionally, retail sentiment is also negative, with around 60% in short positions. To avoid being on the wrong side of market sentiment, it would be preferable for this sentiment to drop to lower levels.
The current situation on NASDAQ is fraught with uncertainty and potential challenges. Technical signals are warning of a possible correction, and upcoming macroeconomic events could bring further changes. Seasonality and market sentiment also indicate potential difficulties. Investors should remain cautious and be prepared to adjust their strategies quickly in response to evolving conditions.
NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame:
The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame.
As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009.
Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common.
As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom).
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Nasdaq Slapped- Like u saw yesterday, BTC dipped but the main reason for now is just the global economy being worst.
- Nasdaq Companies made big % lost yesterday - here the main list - www.cnbc.com
- The Covid19 caused a fast dip followed by a mega pump based on stimulus (brrrrr), now the real dip is ongoing.
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Trading Part ( Long Term )
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- Buy 1 : 12,000$
- Rebuy : 10,500$ - 11,000$
TP : before 20,000$
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- This Analyze of course can be faked by a strong money printing (Brrrrrrrrrrrr)
Happy Tr4Ding and St4y Safe !
US100 ( NASDAQ ) Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
📊 Let's Discuss NASDAQ
Let's discuss my favorite asset, NASDAQ. The first thing we need to consider is the Smart Money Technique (SMT) which appeared on the ES (S&P500) chart yesterday, and now reflects on the NASDAQ chart. This technique is currently positioned below the chart.
📈 Anticipating Price Expansion
We can anticipate the price to expand higher into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting above the current price, potentially reacting to the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch
In our key level area, we have the Midnight Open Price (00:00 NY Time) at 19691.5. Currently, the price is above this midnight open level, indicating a deep premium level, which supports our short scenario.
🔑 Liquidity Levels
At the start of the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) we have both the 4-hour previous high, which is a buy-side liquidity (BSL), and a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). These are the key liquidity levels to watch.
📉 Long Position Scenarios
For any long position scenarios, we need the sell-side liquidity to be taken out, which is quite far from the current price. We can look for lower time frame low resistance liquidity or the 50% retracement of the current range, resting at 19633.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Weekend Wizardry On Crude OilRight now It makes no sense in my mind why the market would want to return to being bearish.
Yes we are in a premium and after a couple days of upwards movement there can be some stagnent action for traders who like to take more than 25-40 ticks ona single move.
So again why would market want to move lower on a htf bases as pointed in my arrows we have a Daily FVG whcih I will be watching price to respect and create a discount in that FVG
The wicks from Friday and Monday Daily chart show immediate rebalance and a propell higher is what I am looking for.
Given Monday can be opposing price to what Tues and Wed Provide... wink wink
Magnet shows my target for next week. to revisit this and whilst in fvg how do we close? Daily fvg CE?
I really do look at price on the day to day basis weekly targets yes but this is a subconscious thought when im trading pacific times of the day.
NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line).
Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action.
With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up).
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Crude Oil Thursday Rumble...As we are in Bullish territory on the HTF the Daily FVG bellow is where I am anticipating price to retrace too leading upto 0930est... Does it have to retrace there? No.
However I am Looking at Bullish bias towards the Daily V.i Marked in the chart for a Target and Forecast going forward...
Pretty simple.
Crude Turbo Tuesday'sYesterday we saw a nice bulish displacement and I would like price to stay above the 1hr FVG..
We can wick bellow on the 1hr but leading into CME open I would wait for bullish price to reach to the 80.00 level which is the Daily FVG..
Once we close inside the Daily FVG we can start looking at CE of it.
nasdaq look downsatoday in the market. in NQ futures we have a range above a a gap.
we seem to be trading below the mid point of the lower part of the range.
so we are looking for a short.
first entry in 19,842 with stop in red and target in green 19,760 first target and 2 target closing the gap at 19,612.
we seem to be having more selling preasure in the range we are at the moment.
embrace the loss to unlock the green days.