BTC VS NDX. FOLLOWING THE BEARISH SCENARIOPreviously in the Series..
👉 Launch of BTC futures on December 18, 2017
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of trading on Coinbase IPO NASDAQ:COIN on April 14, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent for the week and crashed 50+ percent for the quarter.
👉 Launch of AMEX:BITO - the first fund based on BTC futures, on October 19, 2021
Bitcoin is down more than 10 percent in a week and crashed 80+ percent in a year.
👉 Launch of ̶G̶i̶p̶s̶y̶ ̶C̶a̶m̶p̶ 11 ETFs on BTC, incl. on BTC spot, on January 11, 2024.
Bitcoin has slumped by more than 10 percent in a week and further losing its shores.
The main technical graph is a ratio between Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD and NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Index.
Indeed, BTC underperforms against NDX, almost for a 3 years in a row..
But blind faith is ineradicable..
Who knows, what BTC halving has to say..
The truth is One and Only - just trend is your real friend ! 😄
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NASDAQ Extremely close to a peak and a correction.Nasdaq (NDX) closed yesterday on a red 1D candle, with the 1D RSI above the 70.00 overbought barrier, but remains within the (dashed) Channel Up, as well as supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since November 03 2023.
Based on the 1D RSI which is within a Megaphone pattern, we might be approaching a peak similar to July 19 2023, whose RSI was also inside a Megaphone on almost the same levels as now. Following the peak, the price declined initially by -8.50%. Since the start of the year the other two major declines have been around -9.50%.
This suggests that if the index reverses around next week (Fed Rate Decision), we are technically aiming for 16200, which will put to a test Support 2 and the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which made the bottom on the first -9.50% decline of last year on March 13.
The confirmation signal for atleast a short-term sell, can be when the index breaks the 1D MA50. Also, currently, the downside potential can be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which by its current course can make contact with the price around Support 3 (15700). The 1D MA200 has been untouched for more than 10 months (since March 13 2023).
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NASDAQ Starting a double Top rejection towards the 1day MA200.Nasdaq / US100 is pulling back after a Double Top formation at 16970.
The 1day RSI is already inside a Channel Down, much like the patterns of the July 19th 2023 and February 03 2023 Tops.
They both declined by -9.00% on average.
Sell and target 15850, which is slightly over the bottom of the Rising Wedge (Rising Support) - 1day MA200 - 0.5 Fibonacci Support Zone.
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ: Potential correction to the 1D MA200.Nasdaq is on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.007, MACD = 103.260, ADX = 29.522) as since January 5th it reversed before testing the 1D MA50 and is near the R1 level (16,980). The last three 1D candles have been flat and with the RSI trading downwards (Bearish Divergence), it is a first sign of a potential technical decline. This is like the top pattern of July 18th 2023, also on an RSI Bearish Divergence. In accordance to that price action, we expect yet another decline under the 1D MA50, for a close test of the 1D MA200. Our target is at the top of the S2 Zone (TP = 15,800).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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NASDAQ Post Cup & Handle rally in motion. There'll be pullbacks.Nasdaq (NDX) has completed a giant Cup & Handle pattern and since the late October 2023 bottom, it has started the post Handle rally. This rally historically tends to be a very long-term one but with its fair share of corrections to at least the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As you know 2022 was the year of the Inflation Crisis (left side of the Cup) while 2023 was its recovery (right side of Cup). Going back to the 2 most recent Bear Cycles, the 2008 Housing Crisis and 2002 Dotcom Crisis, we can observe similar Cup & Handle patterns, with identical 1W RSI sequences (oversold on their bottom and starting a Channel Down when the Handle begins).
The rally that followed after the Handle in 2011 and 2005 started another pull-back to the 1W MA50 (ellipse) just a few months after when the 1W RSI hit the top of its Channel Down. The chart shows that we might be in a similar situation right now. As a result, long-term investors may seek an additional buy entry as close to the 1W MA50 as possible like the late October bottom.
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NQ! Another Bullish RunThe NQ went bullish once again today. I had a positive day at the start and then started second guessing my reading of the price action I saw and blew throught the different points on the 15 minute chart. So moral of the story go with what you see and know and stop trading when you are up. I started the day up over $250 in profit ended the day from dumb trades and overtrading -$489 down........DUMB!!!!!! Oh side not if i had let the first trade run as i should have i would've had a MIL:1K day trading just micros. But such as life? So maybe i should have posted the MNQ chart but you get the idea.......Be a mindful trader always......i guesss is what im saying.
Here's my Daily analysis on Nasdaq.1. The price shifted structure on 16758.50 and left a bearish breaker block behind to return to.
2. It looks like it's aiming for the mean threshold of a breaker.
3. Price should respect the zone of a breaker then melt right after that.
4. In order for sells to be valid we need to see the bodies of daily candlesticks respecting the zone.
5. Then after that we go to smaller timeframes for the execution.
NQ (NASDAQ) Weekly Outlook... Near Term BULLISHBullish next week.... then turning BEARISH.
Price turned bullish after the bullish BOS. However, the bias turned bearish after the ERL, and the IRL is now sought.
There was also the formation of a -BB and a -FVG. Should price
return to it, the expectation is it will be respected, and price will head down from premium to
discount prices.
NQ1! BULLS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|LONG
Hello,Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on NQ1! right now from the support line below with the target of 16824.50 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
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7 Dimension Trade idea For Nasdaq 😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
1️⃣ Swing Structure: Bullish
🟢 Structure Behavior: Break of Structure (BoS)
🟢 Swing Move: Corrective move, indicating a Point of Interest (POI) for potential reversal. Vigilance is required for a bullish reaction at this level.
🟢 Inducement: Not done yet; waiting for a proper internal bullish BoS.
🟢 Internal Structure: Currently bearish, anticipating a shift with a bullish BoS.
🟢 Decisional Order Block: About to be mitigated.
🟢 Demand Area: Identified via FVG, indicating a discounted area.
🟢 Time Frame Confluence: Daily and H4
2️⃣ Pattern
🟢 CHART PATTERNS: No significant chart patterns observed.
🟢 CANDLE PATTERNS: Various signals: Record Session count, Shrinking long wick, Change in guard with engulfing, Doji, Momentum, Inside bar, and a blended combo suggesting a potential reversal.
3️⃣ Volume
🟢 Fixed Range: Bullish dominance in these areas.
🟢 Volume during Correction: Comparatively less during correction than in impulsive moves.
4️⃣ Momentum RSI
🟢 Zone: Extremely Bearish
🟢 Range Shift: Waiting for a potential shift from bearish to sideways. Two strong bullish divergences indicate weakness in bearish momentum.
🟢 Loud Moves: Conventional RSI theory suggests an extremely oversold market, possibly signaling a reversal.
🟢 Grandfather Father Son Entries: A robust 7-star buy signal.
5️⃣ Volatility Bollinger Bands
🟢 Price is already under the Middle band.
🟢 After a strong expansion, the market is moving into contraction, indicating a potential bullish sideways move.
🟢 Squeeze breakout awaited.
🟢 Walking on the band not yet.
6️⃣ Strength According to ROC
🟢 Values: Nasdaq shows the highest rate of bullish sentiment compared to all other indices.
7️⃣ Sentiment
Price action signals a clear long entry, but other dimensions like momentum and volatility tell a different story. Waiting for final volatility and momentum confirmation for a long position.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bullish
☑️ Current Move: Corrective
✔ Support Resistance Base: FVG demand area
☑️ Candles Behavior: Bullish signals intact - RSC, Long wicks, Doji, Inside, Momentum.
☑️ FIB Trigger Event: Occurred
☑️ Trend Line Breakout: Breached but not confirmed.
💡 Decision: It's prudent to wait until the price provides a proper internal structure breakout. Once a bullish BoS is confirmed, consider a buy. I will update entry, take profit, and stop levels when triggered.
🚀 Entry:
✋ Stop Loss:
🎯 Take Profit: 2nd Exit if Internal Structure changes, also Exit 3rd Trendline Breakout, FOMO.
😊 Risk to Reward Ratio:
🕛 Expected Duration:
SUMMARY: The analysis suggests a potential bullish reversal but advises caution until the price demonstrates a clear internal structure breakout. Various signals indicate a reversal, and a detailed plan will be updated upon market confirmation.
NASDAQ Hit the Channel's Top. Mid-term correction expected.Nasdaq (NDX) hit (and marginally broke above) its November 2021 All Time High (ATH), completing the expected Megaphone pattern we shared with you on November 16 (see chart below):
Last Thursday (December 28) the index hit the Higher Highs trend-line that started on the August 16 2022 High and can be treated as the top of a Channel Up pattern. The key here is the 1D RSI, which is developing a Channel Down, i.e. Bearish Divergence, similar to the July 19 2023 High.
As a result, it is highly likely to see a good medium-term pull-back, which within the Channel Up pattern has been around -8.50% on average. Such a decline would approach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Our target is 15550.
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Calling Stock Market top at Nasdaq 17291 NQ QQQPredicting specific dates for stock market tops or bottoms is a highly speculative endeavor and can be influenced by a multitude of unpredictable factors. While technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and other methodologies can offer insights into market movements, they cannot reliably pinpoint exact dates for significant market turning points.
If you are referencing a specific prediction or analysis from an external source about the NASDAQ reaching 17,291 on January 4th or January 8th, it would be essential to consider the basis for that prediction, the underlying data, and the track record of the source making the prediction.
Investors and traders should always conduct thorough research, consider multiple sources of information, and consult with financial professionals before making any investment decisions based on predictions or forecasts.
NASDAQ: Breached the 4H MA50. Sell signal.Nasdaq just crossed on the current 4H candle under the 4H MA50, which has been the short term Support since December 8th. Even though it turned neutral on its 4H outlook (RSI = 45.004, MACD = 31.260, ADX = 51.152), 1D remains bullish (RSI = 65.645) so a potential decline will serve as a technical pullback inside the seven week Channel Down.
The 4H RSI is already on a Bearish Divergence much like it was on the last Bearish Leg of November and a candle close under the 4H MA50 will validate the sell signal. Our target is the bottom of the Channel Up on an expected -2.88% decline (as the previous one) and potential contact with the 4H MA200 (TP = 16,480).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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NASDAQ Long-term Rising Wedge top approaching.Nasdaq / US100 is getting close to the top of the Rising Wedge pattern that started in August 2022.
The Triangle pattern formed inside displays similar features with the one tha peaked on February 2nd 2023.
That formation eventually pulled back to the 1day MA50 and 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Sell and target 15850 (expected contact with the 1day MA50).
Previous chart:
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Navigating the Markets with Fibonacci ChannelsToday we delve into the fascinating world of Fibonacci Channels, a powerful tool for traders looking to identify potential non-horizontal support and resistance levels in the market.
Throughout the video, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to place Fibonacci Channels on price charts, allowing you to visualize and understand their significance in identifying key price levels. We also showcase real-world examples to demonstrate how Fibonacci Channels can be used to find points of interest, such as trend reversals and price targets.
Furthermore, we discuss the integration of Fibonacci Channels with other technical indicators, providing insights into how this combination can enhance your trading strategy. By the end of this video, you will have a comprehensive understanding of Fibonacci Channels and the ability to confidently incorporate them into your trading approach. Get ready to unlock the potential of Fibonacci Channels and take your trading skills to the next level!