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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES

Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/06/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower. Considerations The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights. For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately. To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
Requested NQ Levels - NQ Bias chartJust one of my charts requested by the two people who read. On the 4h time frame they DO NOT, and I'll repeat, DO NOT leave fair value gaps untested. The only one theyve left is from the August 5 Yen unwind, which was quite artificial. Anyway, not super bearish or bullish, just cautious at the moment. Risk reward for me plays out in a question that sounds like, "Do you want to risk -30% for another +10%?" or would you rather forgo the 10% and find something a bit more better value? Think that's how a lot of NQ stocks are being looked at end of year. Again not calling for a rug, but quite possible NQ lags the IWM for this next leg. We will see, anyway feel free to ask any questions the chart is a bit messy, like my brain.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ajx1124
4
NASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index remains a focal point for investors, driven by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory hurdles and mixed economic data. Here's a closer look at the factors shaping the index's performance and its outlook for the coming weeks. --- Key Factors Driving NASDAQ Tech Rally and AI Optimism NASDAQ has seen robust gains, fueled by the dominance of tech stocks. Investors continue to bet on the long-term potential of AI, boosting companies like Microsoft and Meta. However, Microsoft faces regulatory scrutiny from the FTC over its AI software sales, which could weigh on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is adapting its strategies to align with the evolving political landscape, including engagement with the Trump administration's policies. Strong Corporate Performance - Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding expectations, though adjusted EPS disappointed. - Microsoft and other tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI, supporting long-term investor optimism. Despite some challenges, the technology sector remains a key growth driver for NASDAQ, supported by innovation and strong demand for digital products and services. --- Macroeconomic Data and NASDAQ Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy - ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, indicating slower growth in the service sector, a key driver of consumer demand for technology. - Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, meeting expectations and signaling economic stability. - Construction spending increased by 0.4%, reflecting robust investment activity. While these figures present a mixed picture, stability in other areas, such as the labor market (JOLTS job openings at 7.744 million in October), provides a solid foundation for the market. Federal Reserve Policy and Its Impact on Technology The Federal Reserve is slowly pivoting toward a more dovish stance. An anticipated rate cut in December, currently priced at a 74% likelihood, could benefit technology stocks, which are sensitive to borrowing costs. The Fed forecasts gradual disinflation toward a 2% target by 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for the tech sector in the long term. --- Seasonality and NASDAQ December has historically been a strong month for tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ, driven by: - Seasonal consumer spending, particularly on electronics and digital services. - End-of-year portfolio rebalancing by investors. - Optimism surrounding technological advancements and innovations. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at 56, indicates a sentiment skewed toward greed, often a precursor to further short-term market gains. --- NASDAQ Outlook: Technology at the Forefront As a leader in the technology space, NASDAQ has strong fundamentals to end the year on a high note. Robust demand for AI-related technologies, stable economic data, and Federal Reserve support create a positive backdrop for the index. However, investors must remain cautious about potential risks, including: - Regulatory challenges for tech giants. - Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains. - Uneven progress in disinflation, which could prolong restrictive monetary policies. With optimism surrounding technology and potential monetary easing, NASDAQ remains an attractive choice for long-term investors. However, key events such as quarterly earnings and further Federal Reserve decisions will significantly influence the index's trajectory. For now, the tech rally seems well-supported, but vigilance is essential.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
US 100 Trade LogUS 100 Buy SIgnals Two potential long opportunities have been identified, but caution is advised due to the possibility of stop runs. The market could easily disrupt both trades, so this requires close observation and adherence to the system. Discretionary judgment will play a role here, but the focus remains on structured analysis. Trade Setup : 1. Entry Zones : Buy within the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG). 2. Risk Parameters : - First Position: 0.5% risk - Second Position: 1% risk 3. Stop-Loss Size : Fixed at 90 points for both trades. 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) : 1:2 for both positions. 5. Caution : Be wary of potential stop hunts in these volatile zones. Monitor closely for signs of market manipulation or sudden reversals. I am also weary of the strong divergences on both the MACD and the CVD. So be careful with risk assessment today.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 FuturesThis analysis highlights key Support zones for intraday trading, based on the provided chart. Analysis The Nasdaq 100 has reached its all-time highs, meaning there are currently no technical resistances above the current levels. However, we can identify some support zones where the price might bounce or reverse. Considerations To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
NASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic DataNASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data The NASDAQ index is finding strong support from favorable U.S. economic data and a stable macroeconomic outlook, particularly benefiting from the resilience of technology and growth sectors. Amid signs of moderating inflation and potential easing by the Federal Reserve, **seasonal trends strongly favor the NASDAQ, as December is historically a strong month for equities, especially tech-heavy indices. --- Key Economic Drivers Supporting the NASDAQ 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – Signs of Stabilization - The **ISM Manufacturing PMI** for November rose to **48.4**, exceeding expectations, though still signaling contraction. This reflects progress toward stabilization in the U.S. manufacturing sector. - Slower input cost inflation and renewed job creation are positive signs for the broader economy, indirectly supporting growth-oriented sectors such as technology. 2. Construction Spending Growth - Construction spending** increased by **0.4% in October, showcasing resilience in the housing and infrastructure sectors. This strength in spending highlights consumer and government investment, which can indirectly benefit tech companies involved in digital infrastructure and smart technologies. 3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Easing Inflationary Pressures - The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid** index dropped to **50.3**, significantly below the forecast of **55.2**. This is a positive development for inflation control, signaling moderating cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. - Implications: - Positive for equities: Lower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, a scenario that benefits rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Stable monetary outlook: A gradual shift toward easing monetary policy supports technology stocks reliant on lower borrowing costs. 4. Fed Officials’ Support for Gradual Easing - Recent Fed commentary suggests a balanced approach to monetary policy: - **Christopher Waller** emphasized the possibility of a rate cut in December, citing a balanced labor market and controlled inflation progress. - **John Williams** forecasted GDP growth of **2.5% in 2024** while reiterating that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target. This fosters confidence in growth-oriented sectors like technology. - A potential rate cut would be particularly favorable for the NASDAQ, as tech companies are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. 5. Consumer and Business Optimism - The **S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI** indicated improving confidence and renewed job creation despite lingering challenges such as reduced international demand. This optimism supports steady sentiment for growth sectors. --- Seasonality and Market Sentiment Seasonality is a critical tailwind for the NASDAQ at this time. December is traditionally a strong month for the tech-heavy index, supported by holiday-driven consumer spending, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year tax strategies. The current **Fear & Greed Index**, standing at **64**, indicates a **greed-driven sentiment**, which typically aligns with upward momentum, especially for high-growth sectors. --- NASDAQ Outlook The NASDAQ is well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions: - Easing inflationary pressures reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, which is particularly supportive for rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Strong GDP growth projections and a resilient labor market provide a stable foundation for tech earnings and innovation-driven sectors. - Seasonal trends, combined with improving macroeconomic sentiment, create additional momentum for the NASDAQ as the year-end approaches. While global uncertainties and international demand challenges remain, the NASDAQ's long-term prospects remain **bullish**. Seasonal strength, positive economic data, and the potential for a more accommodative Fed policy stance are all aligning to favor continued gains for the index.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
NASDAQ Santa rally is starting.Nasdaq (NDX) has been following the blueprint of the 2020/21 Bull Cycle to high precision so far, as we showed on our analysis almost 4 months ago (August 19, see chart below): As you can see it is already marching towards Target 1 (23250) on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, well inside the Channel Up. We expect that to get hit by the final week of December, which can be translated as the infamous 'Santa rally', a frequent seasonal price increase at the end of the year. As mentioned, this Channel Up displays strong similarities with the patterns of August 2020 - November 2021 and before the COVID crash of December 2019 - February 2020. All those Channel Up patterns are within the dominant long-term structure of the 6-year Bullish Megaphone. The key here is for the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to hold and continue to offer support, as within those 6 years the only two times it broke were during the corrections of the 2022 Inflation Crisis and the March 2020 COVID flash crash. As long as it holds, the current Channel Up should, besides the immediate Target 1 (23250), complete the sequence and peak towards the end of 2025 as close to a +185% rise (from the October 2022 bottom) as possible. This is why our long-term strategic Target (2) is a little lower at 27000. As a side-note, see how well the 1W RSI held and bounced in September on the Symmetrical Support Zone, in similar fashion as 2020 - 2021. Also the 1W MACD displays a similar pattern between the two fractals. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66,3%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The Nasdaq index bounced back with a 0.48% gain today. The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but slowing from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **66.3% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. If realized, this could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term effects remain uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
3
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The Nasdaq index bounced back with a 0.37% gain today, recovering some ground after yesterday’s 0.5% decline. The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, signaling tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Remained steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but slowing from revised data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased by 0.2%, falling short of the 0.5% forecast, reflecting weaker demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Increased to 2.3%, matching expectations but higher than the prior 2.1%, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **64 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. If realized, this could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term effects remain uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Today’s modest gain shows resilience in the Nasdaq as it rebounds from yesterday’s decline. Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!*
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic DataNasdaq: A -0.9% Decline Amid Mixed Economic Data The Nasdaq index experienced a slight decline of 0.9% today, reflecting a mix of economic signals, investor sentiment, and broader geopolitical concerns. Key data releases from the US provided a nuanced picture of economic performance, contributing to cautious market behavior. US Economic Data Highlights - **EIA Crude Oil Inventories:** Fell by -1.844M barrels, exceeding the forecast of -1M, reflecting tighter supply conditions. - **US GDP Growth (Q3, Second Estimate):** Steady at 2.8%, unchanged from the previous estimate, highlighting consistent economic expansion. - **Personal Consumption and Spending:** October’s real personal consumption rose by just 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%), while consumer spending grew by 0.4%, meeting expectations but signaling a slowdown compared to revised previous data of 0.6%. - **Durable Goods Orders:** Increased marginally by 0.2%, falling short of the forecast of 0.5%, indicating weaker-than-expected demand for long-term goods. - **PCE Price Index (YoY):** Rose to 2.3%, aligning with forecasts but higher than the previous 2.1%, underscoring mild inflationary pressures. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Despite today’s decline, seasonality is currently favorable for the Nasdaq, as historical trends often support equities during this time of year. Additionally, the **Fear & Greed Index** currently sits at **64 points**, indicating moderate optimism among investors and a "Greed" sentiment, which typically supports risk-on behavior in the markets. Rate Cut Expectations Market participants are closely monitoring monetary policy, with a **70% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut** at the Federal Reserve’s next meeting on **December 18th**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks While the economic picture and market sentiment provide support, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to weigh on investor confidence. The war in Ukraine remains a significant factor in the global risk landscape, with potential implications for energy prices, supply chains, and broader economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Correction Could Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact for now, supported by strong economic fundamentals and favorable seasonality. However, the current correction may take some time to resolve as markets digest mixed data and geopolitical risks. Investors should be prepared for potential short-term volatility while keeping an eye on key macroeconomic developments. Broader Context Today’s data reinforced the view of a steady, albeit moderating, US economy. However, forward-looking risks are rising: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast predicts global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with the US slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Anticipated policy changes under the new administration may elevate inflationary pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq The Nasdaq’s modest decline today reflects investor caution as the market digests mixed signals from economic data and weighs the potential for policy shifts. However, supportive seasonality, a "Greed" sentiment on the Fear & Greed Index, and expectations of a December rate cut could help stabilize or even boost the index in the near term. Looking ahead, the interplay between policy developments, global growth dynamics, geopolitical risks, and corporate earnings will remain crucial for the index's direction. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq? Will the anticipated rate cut and seasonal trends provide a boost, or will geopolitical and economic risks keep the market under pressure? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key EventsNasdaq: Gains Driven by Data, Eyes on Key Events. The Nasdaq ended current day on a positive note, buoyed by strong economic data, robust corporate earnings, and supportive seasonality. However, investors are shifting their focus to critical upcoming events: the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and the PCE inflation report on Wednesday. These events have the potential to set the tone for the markets for the remainder of the year. Mixed Economic Data The past week brought a blend of economic data, with some encouraging signals and a few disappointments: Initial Jobless Claims (Nov. 16): At 213K, the result came in better than the 220K consensus, underscoring the resilience of the labor market and reducing recession fears. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov.): Disappointed at -5.5 against expectations of 8, reflecting continued weakness in the manufacturing sector. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (Nov.): Came in at 71.8, below the 73.7 forecast, indicating a slight dip in consumer confidence. S&P Global Services PMI Flash (Nov.): Surprised to the upside with a reading of 57.0, exceeding the expected 55.2, highlighting the strength of the services sector. Nvidia Shines Bright Corporate earnings added to the bullish sentiment, led by Nvidia's impressive Q3 results. The company reported revenue of 35.08 billion dollars, significantly above the consensus estimate of 33.17 billion dollars. As a leader in AI-related technology and semiconductors, Nvidia's results lifted the broader tech sector and contributed to Nasdaq's gains. Market Sentiment and Seasonality The Fear & Greed Index currently stands at 61, in the "Greed" zone, indicating a risk-on environment as investors show confidence in equities. Seasonality also plays a crucial role. Historically, Nasdaq benefits from end-of-year trends, especially in an election year, when policymakers often aim to maintain market stability. Challenges Ahead While the current momentum is positive, the market faces significant tests this week with two major events: FOMC Meeting (Tuesday): The Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and commentary will be in the spotlight. Investors will look for signals on whether the Fed plans to pause or keep the door open for further rate hikes in 2024. PCE Inflation Report (Wednesday): The core PCE inflation data, the Fed's preferred measure of price pressures, could shape expectations for monetary policy. A higher-than-expected reading might increase concerns about further tightening, while a lower figure would reinforce the soft landing narrative. Lingering Risks In addition to the upcoming macroeconomic events, investors remain wary of: Trade Policy: Former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could stoke inflation and weigh on economic growth. Geopolitics: The ongoing risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict continues to loom over global markets. Soft Landing: The Baseline Scenario Looking at the current data, the Nasdaq appears to be on the path to a soft landing, supported by a strong labor market and robust technology sector performance. Favorable seasonality—both year-end trends and election-year dynamics—further bolsters the case for continued gains, which remains the baseline scenario for now. Conclusion The Nasdaq has shown strength, but this week FOMC meeting and PCE inflation report could reshape market dynamics. The key question is whether the data will support the soft landing narrative or signal a need for further monetary tightening. What are your thoughts on the Nasdaq’s outlook given the upcoming Fed meeting and inflation data? Will the index sustain its rally, or are we in for increased volatility? Share your insights in the comments.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1