US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle.
Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date.
But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider.
1. A resurgence in inflation
Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle.
2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00%
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level.
The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle.
So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly.
Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday.
3. Credit conditions deteriorating
So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks.
Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NASDAQ flashed a 13 years old BUY SIGNAL!Nasdaq (NDX) has completed a Bullish Cross between its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1W MA100 (green trend-line). Even though it's not a Golden Cross, on the 1W time-frame it attracts particular importance as the last time we saw this bullish signal was more than 13 years ago (February 08 2010) in the (sharp) recovery process after the 2008 Housing Crisis.
The fractals of that Crisis and the (current) 2022 Inflation Crisis are similar. Both hit the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level and got the first major rejection since the Bear Market. The current wave is ongoing but in 2010 it approached the 0.618 Fib and rebounded strongly for nearly 1 year. On the current pull-back wave the 0.618 Fib is at 14000 and thi index already hit 14420.
Is it good enough to start the new recovery wave? It certainly is low enough to give us acceptable risk for the long-term, especially after the formation of a 13 year old bullish pattern. Based on the 2010 fractal, we may see new All Time Highs on Nasdaq in less than 6 months.
Are you buying on this signal?
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NASDAQ MACD deciding the rebound.Nasdaq is having the strongest two day stretch since October 6th, turning around the 4H timeframe from vastly oversold to nearly neutral (RSI = 41.141, MACD = -139.060, ADX = 43.205). If the 4H MACD completes the Bullish Cross, it will be on the same low level as September 24th and August 21st, which where both Lows of the Falling Wedge pattern. If it fails to be formed, we will hold huying until the price reaches the LL trendline at the bottom of the Falling Wedge. In either scenario our target is the LH trendline of the Falling Wedge (TP = 15,150).
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$NQ! Close to support. Now what ?I closed my short position on Friday.
There is a little more room for downside, but we are basically on support.
I will follow a wait and see apporach today and tomorrow.
Top of the wedge will be the target if some market strength returns.
If we break support to the downside, a failed retest of the breakout line will be a good place to short. I am cautious in the medium term and will remain nimble.
Geo political instability and rising US treasury yields not doing markets any favours.
We also need to keep an eye on oil prices.
NASDAQ Approaching the bottom of the Falling Wedge.Nasdaq is extending the decline it suffered at the top of the Falling Wedge pattern.
The Falling Support is the level to watch for buying and the price is within days from hitting it.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the price hits the Falling Support and the MACD (4h) makes a Bullish Cross.
Targets:
1. 15000 (slightly over the 0.618 Fibonacci).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) gave confirmed buy signals / Wedge bottoms after it formed a Bullish Cross. This is why we consider it a parameter for a buy.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
mini NasDaq Trend Change this week (This not financial Advice)Hi Everyone, I saw this structure break just now and love to share that with you, Nasdaq 100 from 15 sep 2023 changed the trend from Up to Down trend and the structure was moving smoothly to down, if you notice the trend made 3 times retesting on 18 aug 2023 and on 27 Sep 2023 and this week starting from 23 Oct 2023 which almost each month have the same retesting , All Three times look strong testing than the other but we will see that also it look will fail the test and went back up, in 29 sep 2023 the price went bullish and shoot up the trend but resistant was strong on the range of 14950 and 14850 , Then, On 6th oct 2023 Breakout with strong candlestick to made MBS one 15020 , the price went back gradually which is health to the same point where the candle shoot 14700 , NOW this week could broke down to close gaps made long back or went back to 15422 .
Again this is not financial advice you will be responsible on your action.
this is sharing knowledge and looking for discussion.
NASDAQ Approaching the bottom of the Falling Wedge.Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Falling Wedge, currently on the 3rd bearish leg of the pattern.
Be ready to buy when the 1day RSI touches 34.20 (Support A) and target 15100 (Falling Resistance).
The Sine Waves show an amazing symmetry between bullish and bearish legs.
Previous chart:
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NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone,
We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level.
As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4.
We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it.
I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low.
There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible.
However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless
convincing signs of further downside occur.
Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range.
I will be looking for daily moves between those for now.
Have a great weekend!
#NASDAQ to the upside------------NASDAQ/NQ/USTECH100-----------
I just went long on Nasdaq index and looking for further upside movement. From fundamental point of view I can say investors expect no more rate hike this year or in the near future. War news outside the US does not really affects this market. From technicals I can see a higher chance to go upside rather than downside at the moment. Weekly level can be the first target here (blue line).
This is not a financial advice, do your own research and analysis!
NASDAQ: Golden Cross and a Channel Up combined.Nasdaq formed a Golden Cross on the 4H timeframe today while turning bearish on the technical outlook (RSI = 40.347, MACD = 7.500, ADX = 49.160). This means that as it approaches the bottom of the Channel Up, it becomes an oversold buy opportunity. The former bullish wave targeted almost as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. Our target this time is also a little lower (TP = 15,700).
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NASDAQ Best action plan for the short-term.Nasdaq (NDX) is trading on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), pulling back after a Lower High at the top of the Falling Wedge pattern. The formation that took it that high is a Channel Up which hasn't yet been invalidated. As a result we currently sit on a bullish short-term signal until broken, with a 15270 target (Lower Highs trend-line). If the price closes below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, which would also be below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), it will be a sell confirmation like that of September 19, and we will sell, targeting 14530.
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Monday BaselineMonday is what I use as a baseline for the week. I don't trade Mondays.
Here are the important levels I am watching for the week.
We are at a critical point and could see many surprises.
However I would like to see price not go higher than the two dashed red lines near the center, for some further retracement. there is a Daily FVG just above the first one.
Any time we get a pullback it makes a run higher stronger.
I prefer to trade with strength, not in choppy iffy conditions.
There is a possibility, as I discussed last week that we may see new lows.
But price has to go up before it can go down, and vice versa. premium and discount of a range, et.
There's a lot of world events right now that could impact market behavior as well as red folder news on the economic calendar.
Keep an eye on oil, gold and the DXY.
Have a great week everyone!
Nasdaq Cucle
Next probable movmement for NQ1 will be Short from 15414.75 direction 14819.75
Disclaimer
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The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
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New week Nasdaq is still highHello everyone, Although the index price lacked positive momentum in recent trading, its general stability within the axes of the ascending channel, based on holding above the main support extending towards 14800.00, in addition to the formation of the 55 moving average for additional support with its position at 14945.00. This contributes to confirming the positive continuity for the upcoming trading.
The above invites us to wait for the price to accumulate positive momentum to enable it to form new ascending waves, thus reiterating the pressure on the obstacle extending towards 15530.00, and by surpassing it, it will succeed in reaching the additional stations, which may start from 15670.00 and 15870.00, respectively.
The general trend expected for today: bullish
NQ Daily Analysis NQ Daily Analysis - Break and Retest of the 15050-14680 10-Day Range
I usually don't look at NQ as my primary focus is ES, but scrolling through my watchlist I stumbled across the old depiction I made of NQ trading in a range, and now we are here backtesting it. Could we be setting up for a break and retest or will this be a failed breakout and we start trading back inside the range? We are also building a bull flag shown by the purple trend lines so it wouldn't be surprising to see NQ continuing to fill out the flag.
With ES ~4350/SPY ~430 at a core level (imo) that'll need to hold to see more upside, coupled with NQ at a significant break and retest level, this puts more upside in play. Don't be stuck on one direction though. We have to be situationaly aware of world news and the econmic calendar this week as it will continue to bring volatility into play. I always focus on levels and technical analysis, while being mindful of contributing factors.
As always, manage your risk to reward ratios while we trade this upcoming week. Taking a short into NQ being at a break and retest daily level, on a higher time frame aspect, isn't the greatest risk to reward.