NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NQ1! Back test of the Broken BalanceThe week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being in the upside channel is bullish and this is the reason the market is being resilient and does not drop like a rock after breaking the balance.
8/7/2023, pre-market
NQ1! Supply and Demand Levels 8/6/23 (15MIN TF)Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
Looking at the higher timeframe, we hit a ceiling of multiple rejections to the upside. On the /ES, we tapped into the 2022 highest resistance and we were immediately shut out.
Coming into this week, we do have important news that can rampage the numbers and volatility.
I am not planning to trade much but I wanted to share the levels on my chart that I am watching. Based on the pattern formations we can have a double top on the daily or a double bottom on the 4HR, and with news it may push 1-3% change. Following the pivot points on the 4HR as well.
EOW Possibilities:
BULLS: 15735-15900
BEARS: 15020-15166
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 AUG 07
Last week, Short from 15904 resistance was good.
On weekly TF, market has closed below trend line.
Watch market's reaction to the trendline.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Short on retracement / rejection of 15511 level
2) Market does a spring and returns into rotation (grey box area), and target
can be 50% of rotation range, or trial to upper boundary of rotation
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16029 - 15904 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC Ave vol down bar, and bar also closed below weekly trendline
Daily: NTC ave vol down bar | Lower High
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
Look at the futures market open post NFP Miss. A short look across major futures markets after we have an NFP Miss
NQ1! Is Bullish! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 4h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 15374.75.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 15675.50 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NQ1!, A Fake or the Right Shoulder PathA sign of cracking the structure. A multi day consolidation area breach. Is this the beginning of a potential H&S right shoulder formation or a fake out that may lead to a return to the mid and top of the consolidation area? 2 mega tech companies are reporting after hours, the NFP is tomorrow. These events may help to answer that question. Wait and see for investors. Traders will have setups during the day session for sure.
08/03/2023
NQ1! Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
I analysed this chart on NQ1!, and concluded the following:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 15444.50
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 15684.00
About Used Indicators:
The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ near the MA200 (4h). Still a buy.Nasdaq is approaching the MA200 (4h) which is untouched since May 4th.
This is the natural technical Support that rests now exactly at the bottom of not only the recent Rising Support but also the 5 month Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension, same as July rally's target).
Tips:
1. The (4h) MACD is repeating almost an exact sequence as June 16th-July 10th. This is how the Fibonacci 2.0 target is derived. You can confirm your buy entry with the next Bullish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NQ1!, Stuck in the RangeMulti day consolidation is begging for a resolution. Old buyers hold and not willing to sell hoping the price will get to all time high. New buyers are hoping for a decent pullback. This situation leads to a limbo. But the market can't operate in that mode. The resolution is coming. AAPL and AMZN are reporting this week. This is could be a moving event. The NFP is another market event. I'm hoping to see decent moves and pickup of the volatility.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
A) Market facing resistance at 16030-15904 area
B) Fallen out of uptrend channel | | Lower High
C) Rotation between 16030 - 15511
D) Weakening upward momentum on W / D timeframe
Possible Scenarios:
1) Rotation strategy: Trade at boundary 16030 | 15904 and 15511 (grey zone 390 - 500pts range).
Target can be 50% of range or trail to rotation boundary.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 16030 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Narrowing spread ave vol up bar = weakening momentum
Daily: Lower vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
#SP500 Update $SPYI keep watching for indications of trend tiredness, such as an ending diagonal pattern backed by divergence against the RSI, despite the market's persistent ascent. I believe I have located the little wave c that is marked with the numbers 12345 in grey letters. However, I believe that this is not the end and should be followed by wave c of (y) that is larger in magnitude, which began in June. And based on what has occurred thus far, I would anticipate another, even larger diagonal - C of (X) - to bundle everything together. Too many expectations, and they must all be met one by one.
Weekly Update: Dead Bears are Starting to Stink up the JointThe last couple months have been challenging if you were bearish on the markets. However, recently it seems one by one, all the bearish analysts and money managers are now issuing their mea culpas, and are quickly embracing the bullish market perspective.
I am no different.
I made the mistake of allowing my analytical bias to remain front and center for too long within this move off the October 2022 lows. Its obvious now that I have the benefit of hindsight. When the ES advanced past 4208.50 in late May and subsequently went straight up, I should have been open to higher levels. Now the SP Futures are within 5% of their all-time highs. This post is not an attempt to justify my past perspectives post May. If I am to be 100% objective, the probabilities do favor bears now more so than any time in the past 10 Months.
Let me explain.
Our decline from the January 2022 highs surprised most market watchers. My scan of perspectives of in January 2022 timeframe yielded most we’re expecting a minor decline, only to the 4300-4400 level. The 3500 level was a surprise to nearly all. Currently most market watchers have remained cautious to outright bearish since October 2022, and are now surprised. Myself included. But we should expect a decline now. The question should be to what magnitude. Bears can dwell on the inverted yield curve, the potential for a recession, the unprecedented interest rate escalation and to what end? The markets continue to advance in the face of unparalleled uncertainty.
Side Note: Do the markets like uncertainty now? LOL
As an Elliottition, I can say we are at the end of a wave count now. That doesn’t mean we can’t extend higher. It also doesn’t mean we won’t hit new all-time highs later in the year. But even in the bullish scenario, we’re at a top. Of what magnitude I cannot say because this retracement will give us the answers we need to come to that conclusion. The various pathways are outlined in the above chart.
However, what drives the market is the prevailing investor sentiment of market participants. Below you will see a chart of investor sentiment.
ycharts.com
We have recently hit a high in sentiment where declines soon follow. So, I think it’s prudent to keep in eye on sentiment in conjunction with the market price machinations.
Lastly where as the Nasdaq had led the way up off last years low, I ask is the Nasdaq about to led us in the decline? The Nasdaq looks to have a high probability, low risk set up to the downside.
Sure, the set-up can be invalidated…but in my opinion, we’re so close to the recent highs that the risk can be controlled with stops. Whereas, this set up could easily yield a 1,000-point decline vs a couple hundred-point advance, determined by one’s risk appetite.
I have issued my mea culpa. It’s time to get back to being objective; and to be 100% objective we should soon expect a tradeable decline with some meat on the bones for the Bears. After which, we can assess the possibility of new all-time highs, or something even more ominous to the downside.
NQ1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the NQ1! pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 15328.75.
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