NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04CME_MINI:NQ1! NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04
On the daily chart, we see potential trend changing weakness lining up.
Market tested previous high, and stalling around the 14520 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Market continues to be marked up on low volume narrow spread up bars = long on retracement
2) Short on test and rejection of recent high / lower high
3) if market forms lower highs, prepare for short
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15440 14850
14089 13350
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC ave vol up bar close toward high | Up trend
Daily: UT + Lower vol ND up bar = PTC weaknesses lining up.
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NQ: Will there be a retrace?Price has remained absolutely unstoppable. We have exceeded the magnitude of the smallest Minute Impulse waves I could find, but we have not exceeded the magnitude of the largest. I think we should continue, and especially if we get a retrace to the .382. All things considered: NQ has not gone higher, we have enough waves of sufficient magnitude to have completed a 5 wave Minuette impulse for Minute ((iii)), & price is traveling along the expected patch, I think it is a fair possibility that we get a wave down lower than the previous retrace.
In the chart, I have updated the count, tightened it up, but overall, it is the same, in this area as "Second Look." The main count in color is projected based on our ((a)) of B, back in February/March this year. The sequence should follow the same as a Minute ((iv)). This count would also take us right into the area of the .382 of the presumed Minute Wave ((iii)) AND into the area of upper support. I would expect this to hold, if we get there, based on short covering, alone. The top support I added as a reference.
The alt count assumes we get OMH, like in ES, in which case, if not an irregular b, we would basically get the action we had over the past 2 weeks or so, followed by what is my main count, here. The alt count takes us into the 1.618 of the Minor ABC, whereas the main count takes us to new highs.
NQ1! Is a Head being formed? Technical analysis is hardly objective, every trader sees his/her brain imagination result. We can't see the future, period!
I often entertain different ideas for a mental gymnastic only. Full disclosure, as a day trader, I don't really care where the market would go. I tag along with a short term sentiment.
Anyway, while looking at this daily chart and relentless upside move for the first half of 2023, I can't help but entertain an idea of a head formation of a potential H&S. Every trend ends up with a consolidation which is a head of a potential H&S or inverse H&S. A breach of the outlined area to upside would invalidate that idea. A breach of R1 would confirm it.
07/03/23
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/29-6/30We are in an interesting place on the 1HR timeframe. We can see a large range after breaking from the bullflag/cup and handle pattern; the area we are fluctuating between is 15200ish to 15020ish. Heading into July 4 weekend, so it is the last full trading day with volume. As we have short days for the holiday, the real next trading session with full volume is 7/5 Wednesday.
Although I would love to see a breakout of this area, I have my EOW targets still in sight as I mentioned in my previous posts on Trading View. But staying very open minded to what may happen when NY session comes around with no rush or expectations.
Link to my chart: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ: Hasn't yet completed its technical pullback.Nasdaq has been pulling back since the June 16th High, which was a HH on the Channel Up pattern, but this sequence isn't yet completed. The 1D time frame remains technically bullish (RSI = 62.049, MACD = 275.090, ADX = 32.676) but the price hasn't yet reached neither the bottom of the Channel Up nor the 4H MA50.
We remain short targeting that level (TP = 14,600) where we will turn bullish again (TP = 15,250) unless the 1D candle closes under the 4H MA50, in which scenario we will re-sell and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 14,300).
The 1D RSI however made a hit and rebound on the HL trendline that is in effect since December 28th 2022, so it is possible to see a rebound without going lower, so in that case only buy after the R1 breaks and target the R2 (16,000).
Prior idea:
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NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/28-6/29We broke from our bull flag/cup and handle on the 4HR timeframe. Looking for a possible continuation into 15268-15300 zone as BULLS target. We had our pull back this morning during NY session to retest the flag breakout. If we do another retest and back into the downtrend, BEARS target is 14925-14970 gap. Powell speech is on at 2:30am EST 6/29. This may help with further momentum like it did today for my intraday targets.
NASDAQ Two sell opportunities and a common buyNasdaq hit the MA50 (4h) today and crossed over the short term Channel Down as well, but the candle closed back inside the Channel and under the MA50.
This is a sell indication and unless it closes above it, we expect a test of the MA200 (4h) given the fact that the MA100 is already broken.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price or at Resistance (1).
2. Buy on the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 14550 and 14600 respectively (hit on the MA200 4h).
2. 15285 (Resistance 2 and Highs of March 29th 2022 and more recently June 16th 2023).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, indicating a Bullish Divergence in contrast to the price's Channel Down. Attention is needed as this may indicate a bullish reversal for the index, so careful with shorting above Resistance 1.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
𝗡𝗮𝘀𝗱𝗮𝗾 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $QQQ Daily. Red flag 🚩 for bearsHolding mid-bolli after an ugly candle yesterday. Red flag 🚩 for bears ATM. Another push higher for a final wave to put divergence in before a real pullback? What do you think?
$NQ_F NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:SOX $ES_F AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:DXY NASDAQ:TLT TVC:TNX TVC:VIX #Stocks
Dow Jones Industrial Average: To 36000 Epic Milestone and BeyondDow 36,000: A New Strategy to Profit from Coming Stock Market Growth is a book published on October 1, 1999 by columnist James C. Glassman and economist Kevin A. Hassett in which they argued that stocks were significantly undervalued in 1999 and came to the conclusion that the market will grow 4 times, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI will rise to 36,000 by 2002 or 2004.
The most important fact about stocks at the dawn of the twenty-first century: they are cheap...
- Glassman and Hasset. 1999. "Introduction". Dow 36000
However, life has made its own adjustments, and the era of "irrational optimism" (as it always happens) - came to its inevitable end.
In January 2000, just about three months later the publication of the book, the Dow Jones Index reached a record high of 11,750.28 points, which subsequently remained unbeaten for the next 6 plus years.
In the early 2000s, the Index fell steadily after the dot-com technology bubble burst.
And after the well-known bang on the American Twin Towers happened on September 11, 2001, the Dow Jones index fell even more, reaching a minimum of 7286.27 points by October 2002.
Financial crisis of 2007-09 sent the Dow Jones to even lower levels, which ultimately freed the hands of Congress and the US Treasury to uncover the money bazooka through raising national debt limits.
In general, only after the second attempt to fix above DJIA 10-year moving average in the third quarter of 2011, the Dow was able to rise in a half of the predicted path (from about 10,000 to 36,000 points).
Just 18 years later to the publication, in October 2017, - Dow reached milestone of 23,000 points, and the final achievement of the desired mark of 36,000 points took place only in December 2021.
However, by that time just few people remembered this book and its authors, who were later called "charlatans". Given that over the 22-year period since the publication of the book, consumer spending in the US ( FRED:PCE ) has increased by more than 2.5 times overall; the prices of gasoline, oil, wheat, corn, and sugar have more than tripled, and the prices of metals such as copper and gold have risen 5 to 7 times.
Closer to today's reality, the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to follow the main uptrend trajectory formed by the US recovery from the 2007-09 Housing crisis. Dow stays for nowadays above its 10-year simple moving average that supported the index both in the third quarter of 2011 and at the time of Covid- 19 market collapse in the first quarter of 2020. At the moment Dow is being above the marked moving average by about 36.45%.
Technical resistance is considered as a range of 34,000 - 34,500 points, that lost in the first quarter of 2022. Attempts to return above this strong level have been overshadowed for several months - either by a banking collapse, and later by aggravated talk about the crisis of the US national debt ceiling.
In such scenarios, coupled with inflation, which remains significantly above the target level of 2 percent, despite repeated attempts to curb it by the Federal Reserve , the 36,000th milestone can for quite a long time, for a decade or even a year and a half, become a growth constraint of the world economy for quite a long time - for a decade or even fifteen years.
Key facts about the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
👉 Technical chart provided by ETF AMEX:DIA - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF, generally in line with the price and yield of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (100:1 ratio).
👉 Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJ:DJI ) is made up of 30 price-weighted blue-chip components of US stocks.
👉 DJIA is the oldest barometer of the US stock market, the flag and the logo of capitalism, and the most widely quoted indicator of the activity of the US stock market and world economy.
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/25I am expecting more movement from Wednesday to Friday due to Powell speaking. Staying open minded to what may happen as we have been consolidating and getting tighter in range.
BULLS: 15264 as we hit this area multiple times, it is the double top of Jan/March 2022, and we can't seem to break over it now. We have a 3HR supply and 15M supply to break through. If we can get through this area, looking for a push to 15475 6/16 highs to retest by EOW or by next week.
BEARS: 14910 is the next 1HR S1 pivot target that I would like to see hit first. This would retrace some of the bull move from 6/12 and seems like a solid retracement. If we can break through this level, 14780-14800 looks like a solid 4HR demand area and where we consolidated before the big break to the upside. This seems like a promising bounce area.
These targets may seem out of reach if based on a slow volume week, but with news speeches, we may get the momentum to move 300-500 pts this week (.5-1% a day).
Link to chart: www.tradingview.com