NASDAQ: Pullback towards the Fed Rate day has started.Nasdaq flashed a strong bearish signal this week as the 1W RSI crossed under the MA trendline for the first time since November 7th 2023. While at it, the price hit the top of the 2023 Channel Up. The last timw we saw those taking place was on August 3rd 2023, a little after the HH top. A Channel Down may now emerge as the correcting wave to the 1D MA100 and possibly beyond. But for the time being, we want to time a Low on the Fed Rate Decision date on March 21st. Its bottom is our target (TP = 17,100), a potential contact with the 1D MA100, lower Support Zone.
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NQ1
NASDAQ Correction is starting, at least to 17350.Nasdaq / US100 is near the top of its 14 month Channel Up.
As you can see, the patterns between the only two bullish legs of the Channel Up are similar and when the July 19th 2023 top was formed, the index fell on its first bearish wave by -8.75% on its 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Sell now and target 17350 (0.236 Fibonacci) and if it closes a 1W candle under it, resell and target 16800 (-8.75% decline).
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NASDAQ-Feb 2024 3 Days remaining!Nasdaq seems on a fast track to close Feb 2024
And still a lot can happen in 3 days, which is the remaining time left to close the month.
One key point to make:
While Price continues to deliver within Bullish structure.
Weekly Price has been unable to close above 18071.
Current momentum is expected to continue to push price higher, but noting price's inability to close a weekly candle above this price area will open the possibility of repricing down.
It is what it is till its not
Price is expected to continue its up-close trend until it shows clear indication of weakness.
Looking for a possible Bearish Mon-Tues structure, setting the stage for Bullish continuation Wed-Thu.
Weakness in Bullish momentum. Did we see the top for Nasdaq?Lets look at CAPITALCOM:DXY
Currently with a Bullish structure and slow build up Long.
Seems it is attempting to reach that Monthly Area low.
Bullish Dollar=Bearish Equities....Right?
Well this has not been the case these particular past couple of weeks.
We have not seen with clarity the inverse correlation between DXY and Equities. In fact everything has been manipulated up.
Yes! I wrote manipulated do not get hung up on the word.
Back to Indices.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
These have a strong Bullish structure. NQ is showing signs of repricing with this pullback.
-Is it sufficient to slow down current Bullish momentum?
-Is NQ leading the indices in a reversal?
These are all valid questions, yet we do not have enough data to validate either or.
Bearish Equities seasonality could have kicked in.
This is the week of confirmation or at the very least for price to provide some sort of hint.
My targets for NQ providing price action confirms it are either a repricing to 17107.25 or a break of Highs.
-If we take out lows first then I would expect price to rally once again and make another attempt at Highs.
-An attempt at highs at the beginning of the week will look favorable for the Bears salivating over the Volume Void right at 17107.25
Here is a view of Weekly Charts for:
ES
YM
NQ
NASDAQ: Channel Up peaked. Correction needed.Nasdaq is forming a new HH at the top of the 1 year Channel Up with the 1W timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 70.596, MACD = 766.660, ADX = 46.154) and the RSI in particular under LH and inside the red Resistance Zone. This is a bearish signal, validation would come upon a 1D MA50 bearish crossing. Our target is the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850).
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NASDAQ Is this a Double Top? Potential decline to 16900.Nasdaq (NDX) tested and was rejected last Friday on the 18100 Resistance, which was formed by the February 12 High. This is a technical Double Top formation and as long as it holds, there is high probability for the index to start the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up pattern.
In fact the recent February 12 High is technically as close of a Higher High for this Channel Up as possible and was formed while the 1D RSI was on Lower Highs since December 19 2023 (Bearish Divergence), similar to the July 18 2023 High. The similarities of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 bottom with the previous that formed the July 18 2023 High, are in fact very strong.
As a result, it is very probable to see a symmetrical -8.50% decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Support 2 level but we keep a shorter-term perspective due to the overall bullish dynamics this year and our short is 'only' targeting the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level (as with the August 18 2023 Low) at 16900.
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CAN US100 MAKE A NEW ALL TIME HIGH ?Hello traders .
i think for nasdaq the market is still bullish ,
if the price manages to give a bullish reaction on the area it is likely that it going to give a trend continuation
for bears out there if you wanna sell look for shorts on round numbers / Psycological levels but don't hold for long its agaisnt the trend i think its going to keep going and maybe start possibly reversing on 20.000.
just a personal prediction of mine . according to the relative strenght index the market is making higher high but they are getting weaker and weaker i am thinking at the price 20000 by then the buyers will be tired and we might see a possible correction.
Hyped about the possibilities of NQWhy I'm so hyped?...
We just had a perfect start of a Bullish weekly model. Bearish Mon-Tues. stablishing weekly lows on Tuesday. Next will be the setting of the Weekly highs on Wed-Thursday with the following distribution on Friday if any.
If you look at the NQ chart we went from internal to internal with big boy rejection of that 4H level. Normally under these circumstances price goes from internal to external. Our next external is 18026 about 200 points away from current price.
Now, I do not expect for us to go straight there everyone here knows price does not move like that but the case is being made by several factors
A Weakening Dollar after the Monthly area rejection
A strengthening Bond market - so-so
Strength in the small caps which is usually a good indication of risk on scenarios
Election year (Never discount the power of Big Brother)
Lets see what happens.
NQ1! Supply Demand Zones 2/21/24 - Levels on BOTH sidesChart link: www.tradingview.com
Love the strong push into overnight session, as we are now sitting in a 1HR Supply.
I am keen to see this break to either pivot point R2 (bullish) or R1 (bearish). If we can keep struggling in this zone, I want to see a pull down to retrace the huge drop we faced prior to earnings. There is a long wick off support so the pressure to grab liquidity below is possible.
For Bulls, we need to see continuation through this zone we are in to gather the orders and use as momentum up. I want to see the trend line on the 3HR break and push to the upside. Time of post we are sitting at the 4HR pivot point P, which is like the middle ground. It can literally go either way depending on momentum and news, and where the buyers and sellers want to push.
We are extremely extended off the trend line from the 1HR timeframe and lower, but on the higher timeframes we are close to reaching the upper line for possible break.
Market Forecast: The Week Ahead in ES, NQ, RTY, and 10 YRIn this video, I provide an in-depth market forecast for the week ahead in the ES (S&P 500 E-mini), NQ (Nasdaq E-mini), RTY (Russell 2000 Index), and 10 YR (10-Year Treasury Note) markets. I am using a few key technical indicators and market trends to give you valuable insights into potential price movements and trading opportunities.
Indicators used in this video are Bollinger Bands (20,3), Beacon Indicator, Anchored VWAP's, and the 5 day Simple Moving Average.
NQ1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
NQ1! is making a bullish rebound on the 2H TF and is nearing the resistance line above while we are generally bearish biased on the pair due to our previous 1W candle analysis, thus making a trend-following short a good option for us with the target being the 17861.25 level.
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NASDAQ: Short term sell initiatedNasdaq is approaching technical neutrality on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 57.511, MACD = 191.510, ADX = 25.356) as it got rejected near the top of a Double Channel Up pattern. The 1D RSI is printing a technical sequence resembling the July 31st 2023 LH, which was the start of a short term correction. Along those lines, we are opening a short, aimed at the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850).
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FRED has lost control of the train. They are completely stuck.This is why the next 6-12 months in the markets are going to make zero sense.
2020 the FRED not only created money they injected so much unnecessary money that have they not enforced global lockdowns the "2022 mini bubble" would have looked like 2000.
Markets will follow and always adjust to debasement meaning your earnings / your P/E ratios are useless in this environment.
The FRED tried raising rates the fastest in history to front run the M2 Velocity (money changing hands / transacting) but there's still simply too much money created, markets are finding support and have not "corrected" enough to off set lowering rates.
If the FRED does not lower rates look at the red line on chart 2 the Federal government will blow up due to to debt.
There's only one solid choice here, Option 1 "Global bust" meaning governments will default inflation will go negative no GDP growth safety nets will fail.
Option 2 "Global debasement" The FRED starts lowering rates cheap credit will flow into stock markets / gold / bitcoin Money Market Funds will pour back into the markets M2V will go parabolic reigniting a dangerous inflation cycle.
Once that blue box on chart two is broken this means its over. Considering how much of the market is pricing / preparing for a "collapse" yes a collapse will happen but what happens if its the currency debasement and not markets that fall? Correct, you need to re enter all markets.
Lets see how this plays out towards year end.