NQ1!, A Fake or the Right Shoulder PathA sign of cracking the structure. A multi day consolidation area breach. Is this the beginning of a potential H&S right shoulder formation or a fake out that may lead to a return to the mid and top of the consolidation area? 2 mega tech companies are reporting after hours, the NFP is tomorrow. These events may help to answer that question. Wait and see for investors. Traders will have setups during the day session for sure.
08/03/2023
NQ1
NQ1! Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear subscribers ,
I analysed this chart on NQ1!, and concluded the following:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 15444.50
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 15684.00
About Used Indicators:
The average true range ATR plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ near the MA200 (4h). Still a buy.Nasdaq is approaching the MA200 (4h) which is untouched since May 4th.
This is the natural technical Support that rests now exactly at the bottom of not only the recent Rising Support but also the 5 month Channel Up.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 16500 (Fibonacci 2.0 extension, same as July rally's target).
Tips:
1. The (4h) MACD is repeating almost an exact sequence as June 16th-July 10th. This is how the Fibonacci 2.0 target is derived. You can confirm your buy entry with the next Bullish Cross.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
NQ1!, Stuck in the RangeMulti day consolidation is begging for a resolution. Old buyers hold and not willing to sell hoping the price will get to all time high. New buyers are hoping for a decent pullback. This situation leads to a limbo. But the market can't operate in that mode. The resolution is coming. AAPL and AMZN are reporting this week. This is could be a moving event. The NFP is another market event. I'm hoping to see decent moves and pickup of the volatility.
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 31
A) Market facing resistance at 16030-15904 area
B) Fallen out of uptrend channel | | Lower High
C) Rotation between 16030 - 15511
D) Weakening upward momentum on W / D timeframe
Possible Scenarios:
1) Rotation strategy: Trade at boundary 16030 | 15904 and 15511 (grey zone 390 - 500pts range).
Target can be 50% of range or trail to rotation boundary.
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 16030 15511 15118
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: Narrowing spread ave vol up bar = weakening momentum
Daily: Lower vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
Like and follow if you find this useful | *For education purpose only.
Have a profitable trading week.
#SP500 Update $SPYI keep watching for indications of trend tiredness, such as an ending diagonal pattern backed by divergence against the RSI, despite the market's persistent ascent. I believe I have located the little wave c that is marked with the numbers 12345 in grey letters. However, I believe that this is not the end and should be followed by wave c of (y) that is larger in magnitude, which began in June. And based on what has occurred thus far, I would anticipate another, even larger diagonal - C of (X) - to bundle everything together. Too many expectations, and they must all be met one by one.
Weekly Update: Dead Bears are Starting to Stink up the JointThe last couple months have been challenging if you were bearish on the markets. However, recently it seems one by one, all the bearish analysts and money managers are now issuing their mea culpas, and are quickly embracing the bullish market perspective.
I am no different.
I made the mistake of allowing my analytical bias to remain front and center for too long within this move off the October 2022 lows. Its obvious now that I have the benefit of hindsight. When the ES advanced past 4208.50 in late May and subsequently went straight up, I should have been open to higher levels. Now the SP Futures are within 5% of their all-time highs. This post is not an attempt to justify my past perspectives post May. If I am to be 100% objective, the probabilities do favor bears now more so than any time in the past 10 Months.
Let me explain.
Our decline from the January 2022 highs surprised most market watchers. My scan of perspectives of in January 2022 timeframe yielded most we’re expecting a minor decline, only to the 4300-4400 level. The 3500 level was a surprise to nearly all. Currently most market watchers have remained cautious to outright bearish since October 2022, and are now surprised. Myself included. But we should expect a decline now. The question should be to what magnitude. Bears can dwell on the inverted yield curve, the potential for a recession, the unprecedented interest rate escalation and to what end? The markets continue to advance in the face of unparalleled uncertainty.
Side Note: Do the markets like uncertainty now? LOL
As an Elliottition, I can say we are at the end of a wave count now. That doesn’t mean we can’t extend higher. It also doesn’t mean we won’t hit new all-time highs later in the year. But even in the bullish scenario, we’re at a top. Of what magnitude I cannot say because this retracement will give us the answers we need to come to that conclusion. The various pathways are outlined in the above chart.
However, what drives the market is the prevailing investor sentiment of market participants. Below you will see a chart of investor sentiment.
ycharts.com
We have recently hit a high in sentiment where declines soon follow. So, I think it’s prudent to keep in eye on sentiment in conjunction with the market price machinations.
Lastly where as the Nasdaq had led the way up off last years low, I ask is the Nasdaq about to led us in the decline? The Nasdaq looks to have a high probability, low risk set up to the downside.
Sure, the set-up can be invalidated…but in my opinion, we’re so close to the recent highs that the risk can be controlled with stops. Whereas, this set up could easily yield a 1,000-point decline vs a couple hundred-point advance, determined by one’s risk appetite.
I have issued my mea culpa. It’s time to get back to being objective; and to be 100% objective we should soon expect a tradeable decline with some meat on the bones for the Bears. After which, we can assess the possibility of new all-time highs, or something even more ominous to the downside.
NQ1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the NQ1! pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 15328.75.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NASDAQ: Entering a consolidation zone.Nasdaq got rejected again on the 4H MA50 and as the 4H timeframe turned neutral (RSI = 49.851, MACD = -15.090, ADX = 34.425), it is highly likely to see the index entering a consolidation/ accumulation phase similar to April's and June's. Depending on its length, it may even create a new, less aggressive Channel Up.
The key for the uptrend to be maintained is to hold first the 4H MA200 and second the 1D MA50. We will buy once the price hits the bottom of the Channel Up and target its top (TP = 16,400).
Prior idea:
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NASDAQ Is starting the final bullish wave to the All Time High.Nasdaq / US100 continues to trade inside the Channel Up pattern of the last 6 months.
The price is staging a rebound just over the 15280 former Resistance and if it holds, that will be the final phase of the bullish leg that aims at a new Higher High of the Channel Up and will inevitably challenge the All Time High at 16790.
The last two rallies achieved runs of 13.40%-13.80%.
As long as the 1day MA50 supports, which is now exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up, keep buying and target 16700.
Another strong buy indication is the 1day RSI hitting (and holding) the Rising Support.
Previous chart:
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US100 short term short potential tradeLooks like we still have some downside potential on US100. Today we failed to break the red sell zone. Looking for a further downside move tomorrow.
Entry - 15447
Stoploss - 15500 (I would like to see a 30 min candle to close above that red box)
First Target - 15390
Final Target - 15300
Let me know your thoughts. Happy trading!
NQ1! Supply and Demand LevelHello everyone! Huge news week ahead!
Trying out a new theme style for my charts and candles. Going to trial this for a few days-week to see if it is more appealing and easier to read as I trade.
Going into NY session, I am keeping open to this break above the trend line for a possible descending triangle. I would like to use the bottom demand zones as a pop up layer to get through the above 2-4HR supply zones. With the news releases I feel like we might have large momentum in either direction. Hoping I do not encounter any issues with my platform!
EOW Targets
BULLS: 15753 by the 45M inside zone looks interesting.
BEARS: 15360 by the 3HR zone and pivot target looks interesting.
NQ Weekly Lower High?If you remember from back in October 22' - The economic news media was on full panic mode. If you only listened to them, you would have been closing positions and preparing for more downside. Smart money did the opposite at that time. 1-5 Elliot Wave is something I had posted during the Oct 22' lows, expecting large demand at those levels.
Now we are almost a year into the future, and about 40% higher from the lows created last year. The economic news media is calling for ATH's, soft landings and it seems hard to believe. Another interest rate hike is right around the corner on Wednesday with 98% certainty, along with mega cap tech stocks earnings.
Do we form a lower high? Not sure, but it would really start to look good for people selling options moving into the bloody months of Sept and August. A move lower from these levels is starting to get more and more probable, and at some point, every bear is right. I am not a perma bear, I just believe that some mega cap stocks (NVDA) are completely disconnected from reality and a correction to some big names could leak into other tech stocks. Be prepared, and good luck.
Thanks,
Futures on BTC and S&P500: The ratio you should considerThe main chart is the ratio between Futures on BTC and S&P500
👉 Bitcoin CME Futures contracts are equal to 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR)
👉 E-mini S&P500 Futures contracts are equal to 50 x S&P500 Index
Special remarks
😀 The Support Area and Resistance Areas are as highlighted on the chart.
😊 Since Bitcoin CME Futures were launched in Dec, 2017, S&P500 outperforms BTC to nowadays.
😁 Bitcoin has NO BALANCE SHEET, EARNGINS AND NEVER PAY DIVIDENDS
A Break above 14020 Could change The big SidewaysThe number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 242 thousand in the week ending May 13th, down from an 18-month high of 264 thousand and below market expectations of 254 thousand. The latest reading indicated the labor market in the United States remains relatively tight, potentially leading to upward pressure on wages and providing the Federal Reserve with an opportunity to implement further interest rate hikes in its efforts to combat inflation.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the US increased to -10.4 in May of 2023 from a nearly three-year low of -31.3 in April, and better than market forecasts of -19.8. General manufacturing activity in Philadelphia continued to decline overall but at at the slowest pace in four months. New orders (-8.9 vs -22.7) and shipments (-4.7 vs -7.3) rose from last month but remained negative while employment declined (-8.6 vs -0.2). The price indexes remained below long-run averages, with the prices received index declining further (-7 vs -3.3) The survey’s future indexes continued to reflect muted expectations for growth (-10.3 vs -1.5), with almost
37% of the firms expecting a decrease in activity over the next six months.
US futures were mixed on Thursday, with contracts on the Dow Jones down nearly 30 points while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were above the flatline. Shares of Walmart were up 1.7% in premarket trading after the retailer raised its full-year forecast and earnings topped forecasts. At the same time, traders become increasingly optimistic the debt ceiling standoff would soon be solved and the US will avoid a default. Also, regional banks are also expected to extend gains when markets open. However, the latest data showed weekly claims fell more-than-expected last week, triggering fears of more Fed interest rate hikes.