NQ1
NASDAQ Resistance break-out, buy signal targeting 15900.On our last Nasdaq (NDX) call (see chart below), we took a short-term buy after a bullish break-out above a key Fibonacci level:
The index made an even more critical break-out yesterday, as it broke above Resistance 1 (15285) which had in the last 30 days two clear rejections (June 16, July 05). This is a technical bullish break-out signal, on a 1D RSI above its MA and the price on a rise after getting close to the Channel Up pattern from the start of the year. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting the majority of this strong uptrend in the past 4 months.
The upside potential extends as high as Resistance 2 (January 04 2022 High) at 16570 but we will pursue a more modest target. The minimum on the previous bottom rebound was the Fibonacci 2.0 extension. As a result, we are buying this break-out and target 15900.
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NQ1! Supply and Demand Levels 7/12Link to chart: www.tradingview.com
Insane move after CPI! We are hitting a strong Daily supply zone. I am looking forward to a break through it as we continue to the 1HR R2 Pivot Target at 15562. For bears, maybe in the next week or 2 we can have a full retracement of the CPI move down to 15310.
Zooming out on the 4HR chart, we had the break out the downtrend, a retracement of the breakout, and now the continuation to break the highs of the downtrend and now moving into new territory since 2022 (Covid Era).
NASDAQ Index (US100): Bullish Rally is Comming
Today's CPI report is very negative for the Greenback.
Gold, major forex pairs and indexes started to grow rapidly.
US100 index formed a cup & handle pattern on a daily time frame.
The market is currently testing its neckline.
If a daily candle closes above that,
probabilities will be high, that the growth will continue.
Next goal will be 15600
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NASDAQ Short term sell on the MA50 (4h).Nasdaq is testing the MA50 (4h) as the short term Resistance.
Ahead of Wednesday's U.S. CPI any short term estimate can be invalidated by the usual high volatility but technically, as long as that level holds, it justifies the completion of a Channel Down same as June 15th-26th.
The long term pattern remains a Channel Up, so any pull back is a long term buy opportunity as long as the MA50 (1d) holds.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy at the bottom of the Channel Up.
3. Sell if Support (1) breaks.
Targets:
1. 14850 (expected contact with the MA200 4h).
2. 15450 (+4% rise as previous rebound).
3. 14550 (expected contact with the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) has offered the ideal sell on its 70.00 overbought level and the ideal buy near its 30.00 oversold level. Use it as an additional indicator.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Nasdaq crash by🗻Double Top Pattern🗻Nasdaq is moving near the 🔴 resistance zone(15,385-$15,160) 🔴, and the formation of an Exhaustion gap can be a 💡 Sign 💡 of the end of the upward trend of the Nasdaq these few weeks.
Also, due to the Regular Divergence(RD-) between two consecutive peaks, the possibility of forming a 🗻 Double Top pattern 🗻 is very high.
🔔I expect the Nasdaq to fall to at least the 🟢 support zone($ 14,060-$ 13,610) 🟢 after breaking the uptrend line and neckline .
Nasdaq 100 Index Analyze (NDXUSD), 4-hour time frame⏰.
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NASDAQ: Last drop before the rally.Nasdaq is on the 4th red 1D candle in a row with 4H technicals turning bearish (RSI = 42.946, MACD = -13.870, ADX = 40.063) while the 1D RSI is testing the HL trendline for the 4th time since December 28th 2022.
If it crosses it, we will have a first bearish warning that the 4H MA50 may break for the first time since April 25th, where we will sell and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 14,500). For as long as the 4H MA50 holds though, we will buy and target the R1 firstly (TP = 15,250) and the R2 (TP = 16,000) secondly.
Prior idea:
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NQ1! Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 15297.25.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 16037.75 level soon.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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NASDAQ Final pull back before a Higher High.Nasdaq hit Resistance A (15280) again and so far struggles to break it.
In accordance to three similar such patterns inside this year's Channel Up, the price may now pull back to a new 2 week low near the 1day MA50.
Buy this pull back and target 15500. The 4hour RSI holding its Rising Support, should favor this trade.
If the price closes under the 4hour MA50, sell and target the bottom of the long term Channel Up at 13800.
Previous chart:
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NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04CME_MINI:NQ1! NQ1! NAS100USD NASDAQ 2023 JULY 04
On the daily chart, we see potential trend changing weakness lining up.
Market tested previous high, and stalling around the 14520 level.
Possible Scenarios:
1) Market continues to be marked up on low volume narrow spread up bars = long on retracement
2) Short on test and rejection of recent high / lower high
3) if market forms lower highs, prepare for short
Price Reaction Levels
Short on Test and reject | Long on Test and Accept
16646 15440 14850
14089 13350
*Longer term: 13350 needs to be supported for long trend to be intact.
Price/Volume/Trend Analysis:
Weekly: NTC ave vol up bar close toward high | Up trend
Daily: UT + Lower vol ND up bar = PTC weaknesses lining up.
*NTC = Non-Trend Changing | PTC: Potential Trend Changing
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
NQ: Will there be a retrace?Price has remained absolutely unstoppable. We have exceeded the magnitude of the smallest Minute Impulse waves I could find, but we have not exceeded the magnitude of the largest. I think we should continue, and especially if we get a retrace to the .382. All things considered: NQ has not gone higher, we have enough waves of sufficient magnitude to have completed a 5 wave Minuette impulse for Minute ((iii)), & price is traveling along the expected patch, I think it is a fair possibility that we get a wave down lower than the previous retrace.
In the chart, I have updated the count, tightened it up, but overall, it is the same, in this area as "Second Look." The main count in color is projected based on our ((a)) of B, back in February/March this year. The sequence should follow the same as a Minute ((iv)). This count would also take us right into the area of the .382 of the presumed Minute Wave ((iii)) AND into the area of upper support. I would expect this to hold, if we get there, based on short covering, alone. The top support I added as a reference.
The alt count assumes we get OMH, like in ES, in which case, if not an irregular b, we would basically get the action we had over the past 2 weeks or so, followed by what is my main count, here. The alt count takes us into the 1.618 of the Minor ABC, whereas the main count takes us to new highs.
NQ1! Is a Head being formed? Technical analysis is hardly objective, every trader sees his/her brain imagination result. We can't see the future, period!
I often entertain different ideas for a mental gymnastic only. Full disclosure, as a day trader, I don't really care where the market would go. I tag along with a short term sentiment.
Anyway, while looking at this daily chart and relentless upside move for the first half of 2023, I can't help but entertain an idea of a head formation of a potential H&S. Every trend ends up with a consolidation which is a head of a potential H&S or inverse H&S. A breach of the outlined area to upside would invalidate that idea. A breach of R1 would confirm it.
07/03/23
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 6/29-6/30We are in an interesting place on the 1HR timeframe. We can see a large range after breaking from the bullflag/cup and handle pattern; the area we are fluctuating between is 15200ish to 15020ish. Heading into July 4 weekend, so it is the last full trading day with volume. As we have short days for the holiday, the real next trading session with full volume is 7/5 Wednesday.
Although I would love to see a breakout of this area, I have my EOW targets still in sight as I mentioned in my previous posts on Trading View. But staying very open minded to what may happen when NY session comes around with no rush or expectations.
Link to my chart: www.tradingview.com