NQ1
Nasdaq BreakDown Analysis 04/04/2023Dear traders Nasdaq open with new opening gap so as you see we re in uptrend and the market consolidate in 13135 so I expect price if came and close below 13133 it will be chance to sell and if he still above 13140 you should look for buy trade safe and good luck
NASDAQ: Targets the August High on this pullback.Nasdaq hit R1 (13,200) last Friday and with that our short term target. The 4H technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.642, MACD = 91.200, ADX = 41.779), so are the 1D ones, within the long term Rising Wedge since October and the Triple Bottom that followed, so the trend remains bullish. After however the first 4H Golden Cross (on March 22nd) since January 18th, the current bullish leg is following that pattern of the former one. This suggests that one last pull back is possible before the price tests R2 (13,735), which is the High of August 16th. Buy the pull back, TP = 13,700.
Prior idea:
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NQM2023 4/2-4/3 S/D LEVELSWe recently broke out a strong 4hr supply zone.. but was it a fakeout? Will we have a retest and further push to the upside, or do we reject and break below?
I have a small short bias as Friday the price needs a break to breathe but we do have a gap to fill if you see the market open compared to Friday.
Mar-Apr, 2023 Market FocusThis is the March-April, 2023 playbook , focused on four (4) markets - so far -, highlighting potentially important plays, including a longer-term position (weekly/monthly time frame).
(One should never maintain more than a maximum of three (3) positions, simultaneously , as there is no possible justification for trading more than 3 instruments at the same time! - Unless the trading plan is unclear - lack of conviction! - or when rolling between markets. Normally, it is justified to maintain a
1) FX position - for currency differentials;
2) Commodity/raw material/index play ; and finally,
3) a well established, Long-term Position .
Anything more and one ought to question immediately the validity, the clarity or the lack of conviction in those extra instances. - Diversification is best left for the investment crowd , since Traders have zero (0) use for it!)
Of course, things change and ultimately anything can happen in trading. This is just the present outlook.
NQ- HAS SCOPE TO XYZMTF Long leading into a long term short position
extreme link to BTC can see something almost exact to match
Has scope to be various ew counts and the main 2 both have scope to hit the desired zone with multiple confluence's
Would make sense in terms of seasonal pivot timing and line up nicely on multiple fib time pulls.
also i can the inverse movements within the DXY and falls in line.
could go deeper but i have moves on es and ym that would also corelate
Having said all of the above my secondary idea see's at at resistance currently with a small push to the upside with a pivot being placed and seeing us attack and the high time frame lows to form a true bottom and very first stages of a new bull run this year.
expectation of a very sideways first wave for a prolonged period that is difficult to enter with confidence then a very deep wave 2 that stops the feint hearted long term positions
followed by an extreme wave 2 that climbs beyond all expectations
20 Reasons for Buy NASDAQ🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
✨ Eagle eye: A long-term analysis of the Nasdaq from 2003 to 2021 shows that the market has achieved back-to-back higher high closings, followed by a one-third correction. This suggests the possibility of another bull run.
📆 Monthly: The market underwent a deep correction of 61% and is expected to close strongly in March with a big bullish momentum candle.
📅 Weekly: The internal bull structure is currently strong, and the 13764 area is an important price level to watch. If the price reaches this level, it could signal a significant announcement. Therefore, I am bullish on the Nasdaq and recommend monitoring this level closely.
🕛 Daily: The Nasdaq is currently extremely bullish.
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
🟢 Analysis Time Frame: Daily
1 Price Structure: The price structure of the Nasdaq is currently bullish.
2 Pattern Candle Chart: A flag continuation pattern is forming, with back-to-back momentum candles.
3 Volume: The volume is currently decreasing, indicating a correction is expected.
4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: The Nasdaq's unconventional RSI is in a super bullish zone, above 60.
5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: The Bollinger bands are touching the upper band, indicating full bullish volatility.
6 Strength ADX: The Nasdaq's ADX shows that the bull trend has just gained strength.
7 Sentiment ROC: The rate of change for the Nasdaq is the strongest compared to other indices.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: 4-Hour
Entry Time Frame Structure: The 4-hour chart indicates a bullish structure.
Entry Move: As per the analysis, a correction is expected, so it is better to wait until the price reaches our desired levels before entering the market.
Support Resistance Base: The mid-level of the move supports.
FIB: We will use the trend line breakout for entry.
☑️ Final Comments: It is advisable to buy when the correction is complete.
💡Decision: Buy
🚀Entry: 12713
✋Stop Loss: 12493
🎯Take Profit: 13600
😊Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:4.26
🕛 Expected Duration:
Stock Market Update Q1 - Bank FailuresNow the fun part - when you realize how hard it is to predict the future!
Now we are faced with countervailing forces:
1. The Fed's state goal of decreasing inflation to 2%
2. Large public banks going insolvent needing are back-stopped to avoid contagion
This kind of "uncertainty" is normally bad for stocks, but longer-term followers of the market are also confused by the "Bad news is good news" era in finance where the game appears to be largely played on the largess of central bank Monetary Policy.
TBH I like many of the people I follow in finance feel uncertain.
"Slower economic activity" should mean lower stock prices
"Crisis economic activity" means higher stock prices due to accommodative Central Banks
In 2022 - the Federal Reserve raised it's interest rate 6085% - www.macrotrends.net
The average Fed Funds rate since 1954 is 4.6% (which is where it is today) - if the goal is inflation < 2% sitting at least at the long-term average seems sensible until it is below that rate, so the layoffs will continue.
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 03 WEEK
NQ1! NAS100 NASDAQ 2023 APR 03 WEEK
Both Scenario1 short from 12950 and Scenario2 retracement
long both worked well. Market likely to test 13740.
Possible scenarios:
1) Market test 13740 = long on retracement //
support at 12950
Volume Analysis:
Weekly = Ave vol up bar closed toward high = non-trend
changing demand
Daily: Ave vol up bar close toward high = non-trend changing
demand
Price reaction levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
14361 13740 12950-12678
10710 - 11068
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NASDAQ closes on a clear Bullish Quarter, Month, Week and DayJust an add on to the earlier analysis using the NASDAQ futures Daily chart. The weekly analysis says it all, and is in alignment.
A truly bullish end to the Quarter, Month, Week and Day as described. Technical indicators are bullishly aligned.
Weekly close and maintaining above 14,382 is a MUST for a longer term primary trend change to happen (above the green dotted line); currently primary trend not yet bullish. Fortunately or otherwise, there is confluence for the Daily upside target at 14,400.
For more information about this point, do look into DeMark indicators.
NASDAQ - Bullish Break Out!Previously posted about the candle that broke the market's back. It continued to test resistance for the next few days, and then broke down marginally, only to fake it and in one session reversed to close at a recent high. And this followed through to close the week in a massive three day streak of higher high closes ending with a bullish marubozu! The technical indicators are all good and aligned, crossing up and looking for more upside space.
Green circles mark descriptions.
Clearly BULLISH.
A wonderful end to the week, the month, and the first quarter of 2023!
Going forward, in the short term, any pullback to test the 12,900-13,000 support area should see a quick bounce. Upside target is now 14,400 (end April, early May)
In contrast, breakdown zone is now below 12,800.
PS. I still see 2023 as comparatively more volatile. For now, there appears to be some stability in the trend, so I would just go with the flow until near to the time when the music stops.
Nasdaq to see a higher correction?NASDAQ - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 12677 (stop at 12577)
Traded to the highest level in 30 weeks.
There is no clear indication that the upward move is coming to an end.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Bespoke support is located at 12677.
12682 has been pivotal.
Our profit targets will be 12927 and 12977
Resistance: 13025 / 13200 / 13350
Support: 12677 / 12655 / 12513
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Is another bad earnings season upon us? In early February 2023, we outlined how earnings recession was becoming more apparent in the tech sector, with a myriad of companies reporting massive declines in net profit on a yearly basis for 2022. Now, with the upcoming earnings season for the first quarter of 2023, we do not expect the corporate figures to get any better. In fact, we anticipate further declines in corporate profits, more outlook downgrades, and higher operating costs for many tech companies. As a result, we think this season will bring more uncertainty into the market and fortify the notion of unraveling recession in the U.S. economy.
As for the short-term, we are unsure how much higher QQQ can go. Therefore we will pay close attention to the price action and volume. At the same time, we will observe QQQ’s ability to hold above the immediate support at $313.68. It will be bullish if it manages to stay above this level. However, a breakdown below it may indicate a reversal on the horizon; in such case, we will observe Support 1 at $310.08 and its ability to stop a price decline. Regarding the upside, we will watch Resistance 1 and Resistance 2 at $321.51 and $334.42.
Beyond these short-term and medium-term fluctuations, our outlook remains unchanged. With worsening data in the U.S. economy, we expect something to snap down the road, causing QQQ to revisit its 2022 lows. Our assessment comes from the fact that the market is currently pricing in multiple rate cuts by the end of 2023. However, we do not think the FED will be able to deliver them with persistently high inflation; as a matter of fact, even Jerome Powell dismissed any plans for rate cuts in 2023 during his last FOMC press conference. Moreover, as if it was not enough, the median forecast for the FED funds rate is still above the current rate, suggesting that interest rates should be higher than they are right now. Similarly worrying is FED’s unemployment forecast, which implies a recession since, historically, each 1% increase in unemployment was accompanied by one.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows the daily chart of QQQ. Red and green arrows depict the relationship between the price and volume. While the recent drop in volume might suggest a decline in selling pressure (after the selloff between February and March 2023), it can also indicate the evaporation of buyers near the current price levels. In general, declining volume and the rising price is questionable development. Therefore, we will keep an eye on this in the following days to get more clues about the whole picture.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish (weak trend)
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.