Get started

NQ1

NASDAQ Reality will again hit those betting against the market.10 months ago (October 06 2023, see chart below), we published an idea with a similar title, as following a standard technical 3-month correction, there was a growing bearish sentiment amidst market fear over a potential economic slowdown of the 2023 recovery: As you can see none of the 'fears' prevailed and instead the index offered us the best buy opportunity at the time. The early August correction has been the best buy opportunity since then. After a 3-week correction, quite aggressive for sure, Nasdaq (NDX) reached its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 1.5 years and rebounded emphatically, making the strongest case possible that this Support level priced the new market bottom. We made slight changes on this 10-month chart and we've set 2 new long-term targets: Target 1 at 23250 (the 0.236 Fibonacci level) and 27000 (top of the Channel Up). We utilized the Fib symmetry of the previous Bull Phase, prior to the 2022 (inflation) correction and since Nasdaq is currently at 97 weeks (697 days) since its Bear Cycle bottom (October 10 2022), we could assume that proportionally, we are around November 02 2022, around the 0.382 Fib. The 1W RSI just rebounded on the 5-year Symmetrical Support Zone that only breaks during Bear Phases and the 1W MACD is also posting a similar sequence to Nov 2022. Note that as long as the 1W MA50 holds, the index is technically on a long-term Bull Phase with the Green Ichimoku Cloud supporting within the 1W MA50 and MA100 (green trend-line). Technically, the index can rise up to 29000 - 30000 before entering a new 1-year Bear Phase. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
AAPLE VS NASDAQ. THE FRUITY COMPANY AHEAD OF EARNINGS CALLConsumer tech manufacturer Apple (AAPL) is due to report earnings next Thursday, February 1. Notably, waning iPhone demand out of China has worried investors as Apple had a rocky 2024 start, dealing with several stock downgrades. Some of analysts slowed down its expectations for Apple and the biggest tailwinds and risks for its various devices. "As far as those businesses are concerned, the only one that will probably show growth is Mac because some of the new products that they rolled out and easy comps from a year ago, you will probably see some sharp declines specifically on the iPad side of things...," they note. The main graph is a ratio, between Apple stocks price NASDAQ:AAPL and overall NASDAQ:NDX Nasdaq-100 Big Tech index. It's been a while since Buffett put the money into Fruity Company in Q2'16, and since that Apple stock outperformed the whole index, appr. by 150 percent over the next 6 years. By the way, Apple stocks as well as Nasdaq-100 index hit the bottom, in early Q4'22 and since that, Apple underperforms the whole Big Tech Index, totally. Basically NASDAQ:AAPL losses against NASDAQ:NDX further, over the past 12-15 months later they both hit the bottom. In this time the major break down happens in massive reversed Head-and-Shoulders ctructure, just ahead of Q4'23 Earnings call. This is the bottom line, I'm avoid the Fruity Company ahead of Earnings Call. Happy trading to everyone. See y'all later.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Pandorra
Markets Love the Bulls!!! Close to All-Time HighsS&P pulled back 78% of the fall Nasdaq pulled back 61% of the fall Dow pulled back 78% of the fall IWM pulled back 50% of the fall Impressive rips for 2 weeks of trading for the "buy the dip" community. This week's direction was steady in futures, and gaps higher in indexes from opening to closing bell. I'm keeping the charts as clean and simple as possible. September and October are rarely good months for the markets so perhaps all-time highs are a bit of a stretch, but we're much closer now than we were August 5th when everyone was freaking out. Upcoming news for next week: FOMC Minutes US PMI Jackson Hole (with Powell Speech) My defensive plays are focused through August and September expirations, but I'll likely continue to add hedges if appropriate. Have a great weekend and back at it next week!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
US100 (NASDAQ) Outlook ICT ConceptsUS100 (NASDAQ) Analysis 💡 Previous Analysis Review: In the previous analysis, we noted the importance of price action around key liquidity zones. The market has now expanded higher, sweeping a significant Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) and approaching a critical resistance area. 📍Current Market Overview: The NASDAQ (US 100) is currently trading at 19,497.2, having recently swept a Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) level. The market is now positioned near the highs, indicating a potential reversal or continuation, depending on how price reacts in this zone. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels • PMH (Previous Month High): 20,800.0 • PWL (Previous Week Low): 17,235.0 • PML (Previous Month Low): 17,570.0 • SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Multiple levels visible around 18,180.0 and 17,940.0 • BSL (Buy-Side Liquidity): Recently swept near the current price. 📊 Key Considerations • BSL Sweep: The recent sweep of BSL suggests that a significant amount of liquidity has been captured. This could lead to a retracement if the market fails to push higher. • FVG and Reversal Potential: Though not directly visible in the provided chart, any failure to maintain higher prices after this liquidity sweep could signal a strong sell-off. • Low Resistance Liquidity Sweeps: For both bullish and bearish scenarios, it’s crucial to monitor lower time frame liquidity sweeps: • For a bearish scenario, additional BSL needs to be taken and a failure to break higher could indicate a reversal. • For a bullish scenario, if an SSL is swept and the market holds above the current level, it might target the PMH. 📈 Bullish Scenario A bullish scenario might unfold if: • SSL Sweep and Hold: If the market sweeps an SSL and holds above the current level, it could indicate that the market is ready to target higher levels, including the PMH. • Continuation Higher: A successful hold above the BSL sweep could lead to an exploration of higher price zones, particularly towards the PMH. 📉 Bearish Scenario A bearish scenario could develop if: • Failure at Current Levels: If the market fails to hold above the BSL sweep and shows signs of reversal, it could lead to a significant retracement. • FVG Rejection (if applicable): Any rejection at a nearby FVG could further confirm a bearish move, with targets at SSL levels or lower. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary • Bullish Expectation: A hold above the current level, especially after an SSL sweep, could lead to a continuation towards higher targets like the PMH. • Bearish Expectation: A failure to maintain higher prices post-BSL sweep, with a subsequent reversal, could lead to a sell-off targeting SSL and lower zones. 📝 Conclusion: The recent sweep of Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) puts the market at a pivotal point. Monitoring the reactions around this level and lower time frame liquidity sweeps will be crucial. Both bullish and bearish scenarios are on the table, with the market's ability to hold or reject current levels being the deciding factor.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
2 Weeks of Recovery - But Seasonality Lurks in Sep/OctMonday - UP Tuesday - UP Wednesday - UP Thursday - UP SPY has put together 2 weeks with 20+ points from low to high eclipsing the averaging 14/15 point average true range for the week - it really is wild stuff!!! I try to make some sense of everything today with an inverse cup & handle pattern on the SPY/SPX/ES levels. I dive into September/October seasonality and upcoming news for the US. PMI next week and Jackson Hole. More employment news and PCE before the month ends with NVDA earnings. CME Fed Watch Tool showing a 76% probability the FED will cut 25 bps September 18 and we will still see more news on employment and inflation come in before the official FOMC meeting. Actively trading, cautiously bullish, a bit surprised by how motivated this market is to recover. If there's any hesitation, it would make sense technically. I'm not interesting in calling tops/bottoms, I'm just interested in good levels to trade. Thanks for watching!!!
AMEX:SPY
by ChrisPulver
NQ / NASDAQ📉 NQ1! Analysis: Potential Short-Term Correction 🚨 The NQ1! chart indicates a potential pullback as we approach the key date of August 22, 2024. The current trend suggests that the market might experience a decline, with a local bottom expected around this date. Traders should prepare for a possible correction, which could provide an optimal entry point for those looking to position themselves ahead of the next potential rebound. #NQ #Nasdaq #StockMarket #Trading #MarketAnalysis
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by trushkovskiy
It's a Bull - It's a Bear - It's Time to Make Up Your Mind3 straight weeks of setting from mid-July crescendos with a crash August 2. But the "crash" was met with a vicious buying spree that now places the major index 50% of so from the large high to low swing. In this video, I breakdown the technicals and scenarios trying to make some sense of where we could be heading. We are mostly through Q2 earnings. PPI and CPI prints have been digested (market likes it mostly). We still have retail sales and unemployment claims this week and if the market reacts bearish, it's a pretty obvious sign the market is more concerned about a softer labor market and recession than it is inflation. If the markets reacts bullish and continues to grind higher, we may be looking at another incredible V bottom without the FED having to do anything - which would be a surprise :) I'm cautiously bullish and believe the market will struggle to blow through all-time highs, but it's possible we still test and sniff them out, though unlikely it will be broad. More about big money moves are cutting positions in Mag 7 so a true broadening will be a nice change of pace instead of a highly concentrated Top 10 carrying the overall market. Enjoy the video and thanks for watching!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
NASDAQ New Bullish Leg targeting 20900.Early last week (August 05) we mentioned the importance of Nasdaq (US100) to close its 1W candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), after touching it for the first time is 17 months: Eventually it succeeded at it and that caused a strong weekly reversal that even closed the 1W candle in green, which was the first after three straight red weeks. Technically, this could translate into the stop of the Channel Up correction, but this is only confirmed after a break above and successful re-test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). During the previous two Bullish Legs that followed a Channel Up Higher Low, the index made initially a +20.88% rise and then on a more long-term horizon, extended to +48.00%. As a result, even though we are long-term bullish on the index, you can go after even shorter term targets, with the immediate one being 20900 (+20.88% from last week's Low). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
3
fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve' over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of? --- the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around. i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot, before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election. --- if all goes well, the timeline will look like this: > we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot" > we drop -20% into the presidential election. > the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market: > next bull run begins. --- i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller. just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me. do with this information what you will. 🌙
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
NASDAQ-100. A POTENTIAL SYMMETRY PERHAPS IS THE NEXT BIG THINGPolicymakers at the U.S. central bank on Wednesday held interest rates steady, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. A Day later stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced. Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February. These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table. Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2. The Federal Reserve risks further weakening the US economy and tanking US stock markets. As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, it has fueled speculation that the strong labor market is cracking and pointing to potential trouble ahead, with full-time employment in the US declining by about 1.23 million jobs over the past 12 months, and part-time employment adding about 1.52 million jobs (May'24 data). While much of the attention of financial analysts in June and July 2024 was focused on the Fed's rhetoric, inflation and manufacturing statistics, the US unemployment rate, which is recovering from its 55-year lows, is much greater thing. In technical terms, June'24 will be the 4th month in a row, US unemployment rate is above its 26-week (6-month) simple moving average. Historical backtest analysis of the entire history of data since the end of World War II indicates that the onset of a recession in the United States is just around the corner. In any case, such labor market symptoms have always, in all cases without exception, signaled either an already occurring or an imminent US recession. The main graph (Nasdaq-100 Futures cont. contract) indicates on a potential symmetry for further bearish development. with the nearest target roughly S14'000 mark (that is corresponding also to 5-years SMA).
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Pandorra
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver
US100 Outlook ICT ConceptsNASDAQ-100 (US100) Analysis 💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 💡 Previous Analysis Review: In the previous analysis, we anticipated the price to begin expanding higher after a significant move to the downside, which has occurred as expected. 📍 Current Market Overview: • Price Reaction: The NASDAQ-100 (US100) had a strong bullish reaction after sweeping the Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) and tapping into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG). • Expansion Higher: Currently, the price is expanding higher, moving into a premium zone as marked by the Fibonacci retracement levels. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels: • PMH: Previous Month High • PWH: Previous Week High • PML: Previous Month Low • SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity • Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL): The levels that can be targeted if we go long. • Daily FVG: The Daily Fair Value Gap, where the price had a significant reaction. • 4H Bearish FVG: A 4-hour timeframe Fair Value Gap located above the current price. • Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key Fibonacci levels (0.50, 0.62, 0.705, 0.79) indicating potential resistance or retracement areas in the current premium zone. 📊 Key Considerations: • Premium Zone: The price is currently in a premium zone, as identified by the Fibonacci retracement levels. This zone is generally where we anticipate some form of retracement or consolidation. • Daily and 4H Bearish FVG: These gaps are significant resistance levels above the current price, which might act as targets if the price continues to move higher. • Possible Retracement: Given that we are in a premium zone, a retracement lower is possible. However, further upside cannot be ruled out, especially if the price breaks through to the daily or 4H bearish FVG. 📈 Bullish Scenario: • Sweep of Lower Time Frame SSL: For any new long positions, we need to see a sweep of lower time frame Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL). After this, longs can be considered, targeting the Buy-Side Liquidity (BSL) levels. • Targets: The primary targets would be the Daily Bearish FVG and the 4H Bearish FVG above. 📉 Bearish Scenario: • Retracement from Premium Zone: Given the current position in a premium zone, we could see a retracement lower. If this occurs, the key levels to watch would be the SSL areas or any previous supports near the Daily FVG. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary: • Bullish Expectation: We have seen the long scenario play out successfully. For new longs, wait for a sweep of lower time frame SSL before targeting BSL, with potential targets being the Daily and 4H Bearish FVGs above. • Bearish Expectation: Consider the possibility of a retracement from the premium zone. If the price shows signs of weakness, a move lower to previous supports or SSL levels could be expected. Conclusion: The NASDAQ-100 is currently at a critical junction in the premium zone, with the possibility of either further expansion to the upside or a retracement lower. The key to the next move lies in observing the price action around the Fibonacci retracement levels and the reaction to the bearish FVGs above. Any long positions should be taken cautiously after a lower time frame SSL sweep, targeting BSL levels, while keeping an eye on potential retracement scenarios. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin